Sentimentalanalysis
Gold: How to Combine Technical & Fundamental To Get Best ResultsWhat Does Market Really Follow?
We all know that market is normally run by based on Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, and Trading Sentiment. If you want to get a high result on your trade, you must combine these 3 analyses.
As USD and Gold both are safe-haven currencies and reserve currencies as well. USD and Gold have a negative co-relation. If the USD rise, Gold will drop. If the USD drops Gold will rise.
Which Fundamental Factors Are Responsible for Golds Move?
1. US Economical Reports
2. World Wide Economic Conditions
3. Man-made or Natural Disaster (For the moment Covid Situations)
4. Political or Economic Crisis
5. Central Bank's Rate Decision and some other reasons.
What to Do Firstly?
You must have a look at US economic reports. US job Market Report, CPI, Manufacturing Reports, and FED economic Overview. If most of the fundamental reports are positive from the USA, that means fundamentally USD is in a good position, which means Gold has a chance to drop.
especially CPI / Inflation reports are important for hiking bank rates. So, if you see recent most of the high-impact reports are positive, that means gold has more chance that it will drop and FED is going to deliver the hawkish statement. FED's hawkish statement will give an extra benefit to USD what is negative for Gold.
What to Do Secondly
Now see your technical chart. A trading view has many awesome tools to draw your Technical Charts. Personally, I do follow pure price action. Based on your chart analysis, find an entry rate, exit rates, and where the stop loss and profit should be put. You can use any kind of technical tools, indicators of what is suitable for you.
What To Do Thirdly?
To get the trading sentiment, Option expiry and Cot reports will help you a lot. Especially cot reports are free, so check last cot reports. Day Traders usually follow non-Commercial contract positions. if you are a day trader checks a non-commercial contract. if most of the contracts are in a short mode, that means banks, hedge funds, and other financial authorities are selling more.
commercial contracts are also very important. because they are big guns and big companies. you should also check their position. Non-Reputable contracts are not really important.
How Will I Combine Technical and Fundamental Analysis and implement to my trade?
This is the final part. If you see most of the US economic reports are positive in recent months, especially job market reports, manufacturing reports, and Inflation reports. In this case, most of the time FED delivers a hawkish statement. So, you think for Buying USD and Sell Gold.
If you see US Economic reports are not supportive, then think about selling USD and buying Gold.
This is the first part. I will write details about it in my second part. till then keep reading.
If you think this article helped you then, like, comment, and share with your trader's community.
Sunday Prep 7/25 - $SPY/$ESThe market gave the retrace back to the 50d like we were thinking it could. But the problem for me is that it didn’t spend any real time down there. Instead, it immediately bounced and we are already back at new ATHs. It really gives me concern about whether it can actually hold. Only time will tell, but moving forward, I will be pretty cautious with longs. As always, the higher it goes without any consolidation, the more I will lean towards looking for short setups. Starting to wonder if 4500 is in the books for this week at some point. Butttttttt………..remember, this is arguably the biggest week of earnings season, so if certain names miss on numbers and get smoked, so too might the market.
Interesting thing is that we haven’t lost the previous month’s lows since last September, almost a year ago. Obviously we will see signs of weakness well ahead of ever losing the previous month’s lows, but once we start to see signs of cracking, this would be something I look for to get confirmation that we may very well be starting to roll over. But please don’t misinterpret this as me being bearish. I’m merely doing the necessary prep work to always be ready for anything. Till then, laissez les bons temps rouler. To the moon!!!
TV Chart link:
TV Chart link:
Trader's worst enemy ☠️Hi everyone,
Wish y'all have a profitable life.
📌 Today I would like to talk about a very important factor that every trader has to consider very important in their technical analysis.
⚠️ The topic is "EMOTION" and how it can lead to possible profit and or losing money.
⚠️ And how can you avoid "FOMO TRADING" !
📍It's almost been a year that I have started trading and at the beginning I have participated in various technical classes such as ICHIMOKU, Price Action, E-Wave, etc. Furthermore, I can assume that I have made some money as well as some losses.
🧐 The question is; how to avoid serious money loss??
📍 The answer may differ from each person to the other and person by person. However, the most common answer might be: "EMOTIONS"
📌 We are human-beings and it is completely normal for each human-being to decide based on emotions and not considering facts and reasons.
🧐 What does this exactly mean?
📍 The answer is: We may dismiss or not consider some reasonable facts and decide emotionally not reasonably.
📌 As you can see my E-wave analysis may be THEORITICALLY correct but not resoanbly.
🧐 What does it mean if we have a total of 9Trillion dollar of worth in crypto-currency?
🧐 What if this new version of .com bubble explode at some points?
📍Always, consider fundamental analysis in your technical analysis and your technical analysis in your fundamental analysis
⚠️ Keep your faith for when you are in church and your belief when you are in a hospital
⚠️ Trading is a game of numbers and numbers do not understand any emotions...
⚠️ Trading is a game of indexes, algorithms, pure mathematics and supply and demand, please do not believe in chart!
🧐 I am looking forward to update my toturial and tell you guys more about sentimental analysis.
Please let me know if you have got any problem and or questions
GBP/USD Swing Trade IdeaThe Pound has been gaining strength lately due to the heavy market-sentiment-driven market pressure. The UK is inching closer to reopening its economy to international travel, reviving the hospitality sector, increasing positive data from the services and manufacturing data. The majority of GBP pairs have been in consolidating as we await the June 21st decision. PM Johnson has expressed concerns around the growing numbers of cases due to the Indian variant but is facing pressure from his party officials to remain on the track of reopening the economy as planned. Any movements seen recently will be due to the market sentiment as technicals and fundamentals set up in a favorable manner.
Key Dates I'm watching for:
June 15 - Gov Bailey Speech about the growth in the financial sector and CPI
June 16 - US Interest Rates
June 17 - Unemployment Claims
June 21 - Decision about the UK economy
June 24 - UK Interest Rates
BTC/USDT : Low TF trading plan. BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Hello everyone 😃
Just wanted to clear some thoughts and have make a trading strategy for those who interested into trading on current market's situation; Also I added some points for long-term vision, So read this article till end 😉
I will talk about three things on this article :
1️⃣ Chart's direction and technical analysis
2️⃣ Recent fundamentals definition
3️⃣ On chain data analysis
1️⃣ Chart's direction and technical analysis :
LTF wise I'm willing to take a long if we sweep below and aim for the FVG.
If we sweep below first and then break the H12 that's a good bias for longs at that level...
but if we tap the H12 level first and then sweep I probably wouldn't long the flip of the H12 anymore !
📌 Also according to volatility, It have a bearish crossover and so we may see the daily open...
2️⃣ Recent fundamentals definition :
- Elon Musk : Right now Elon is focusing on his meme coin ( DOGE ) and so he just tweeted a new FOMO idea about DOGE and he said that he won't sell any of His Dogecoins holdings.
It can be good for whole market (in short-term), But as we are talking about it, 66% of people are not trusting Elon's word and they called this tweet as a bearish sign and 88% of traders disliked his tweet. (This information are provided by other source's data)
- Vitalik Buterin : As I'm writing this article PlanB and Vitalik are believing into a possible risk if BTC shows another weakness and it can rejects the pair below the major bullish trendline which is leaded the Bull Run from beginning !
- U.S. Treasury Wants to Ramp Up Cryptocurrency Tax Enforcement : The United States Department of the Treasury is calling for cryptocurrency transfers that exceed $10,000 to be reported by businesses to the Internal Revenue Service starting from 2023,
The new initiative is part of the Biden administration's revamped tax enforcement plan.
The Biden administration is also seeking to double the IRS staff with $80 billion in additional funding, according to the Wall Street Journal.
🔰 For now it can't affect the market and my worries are just starting with the on chain data. !
3️⃣ On chain data analysis :
According to exchanges BTC's balance, The day started with -3895 BTC in TOTAL and Now As I'm writing, It's changed into +6956 BTC in TOTAL !
This information are recorded without the recent 10000 BTC inflow to BitStamp exchange.
Actually; We are standing with +50K BTC in last 7Days's change, Have to mention that Binance more than +17.5K BTC's change in last 24Hours...
Now According to RSI indicator we are standing above a supportive trendline, But Based on mentioned information we may see another dip which should be located around last ATH's support zone now !
🔰 Based on current funding rate; We have to retest a major support level and close a daily candle in green status to refresh the funding rate.
📚 I'm Predicting on important dates that can change the market's condition ( They are like pivot lines with a little difference ), One of them was 19th May Which I predicted a sharp dive and quick bounces after it. Also I mentioned that it could be a 30% dive after China's FUD.
Then next located date is 25th May ; I'm so sure about the exact direction for now, But I have a filling on FVG line and another rejection to lower levels to form a double bottom on daily chart !
I will update my vision If it's needed...
📌 There are few important trendlines that can help you in your decisions :
Hope you enjoyed our analysis about Sentiment view on BTC's possible directions🙌
You can support us with your likes.
Also you can share your opinion with us in comments 😉🙋🏼♂️
Attention: this isn't financial advice we are just trying to help people on their own vision.
Have a good day!
@Helical_Trades
AUDNZD- Short Swing Trade OpportunityTechnical Analysis:
-Price has been in a consolidation since 20th April.
-We should wait for a retracement of the supply/liquidity zone to look for a short setup.
-According to the algorithm, price could drop down 1.00% in the next 25 days.
Fundamental Analysis:
-There is high impact news on retail sales for AUD on Monday 10th .
Sentiment Analysis:
-The large banks are heavily short on this pair.
Lets see how this trade plans out!
Make sure to follow, like and comment your ideas for this pair!
SHIB/USDT : SHIB is not bullish anymore, The hype is over soon.POLONIEX:SHIBUSDT
Hello everyone 😃
Shiba Inu (SHIB) gained popularity dramatically.
Here’s what you need to know about it before you decide to invest. :
1️⃣ What is Shiba Inu (SHIB)? Meet The Dogecoin Killer
2️⃣ The Unanticipated Major Holder of SHIB
3️⃣ The SHIB Token: What Is It Used For?
4️⃣ SHIB: The Must-Read Things to Consider Before Buying
Now before starting any word about topics; Just ask this question by your self,
Why should you invest in a asset that their official Medium page has two posts only ?
The coin that started as a joke has increased so much that, for a brief time, it became the 4th largest cryptocurrency by market cap, carrying a market cap value of over $70 billion. Indeed, an expensive joke.
This was made possible thanks to a flock of retail investors, a bunch of Reddit groups, and, of course, Elon Musk – one of Dogecoin’s most avid commentators.
However, what this also did is propel a lot of clone coins, most of which are heavily inspired by DOGE.
Shiba Inu (SHIB), despite its claims of being something different – is an obvious example.
Dogecoin carries the logo of the Shiba Inu dog breed , while SHIB uses it directly.
With this in mind, we’ve decided to compile a comprehensive guide aimed at shedding some light on the cryptocurrency that took the market by a storm in just a few days.
1️⃣ What is Shiba Inu (SHIB)? Meet The Dogecoin Killer
SHIB quickly became one of the hottest cryptocurrencies.
This became possible after Dogecoin (DOGE) saw an astronomic increase and surpassed $0.7 in May 2021.
Becoming arguably the most discussed and popular cryptocurrency, for the time being, Dogecoin inspired many to create tokens bearing similar characteristics – the common trait they share is that they are all named after a dog breed, most of which take after Shiba Inu.
With this said, one dev team went ahead and created a cryptocurrency that is literally called Shiba Inu and uses the SHIB ticker.
According to the official website and their Woofpaper, which is Shiba Inu white paper’s version, SHIB represents an “experiment in decentralized spontaneous community building.”
Apart from that, the team is attempting to create an ecosystem consisting of a few tokens, a decentralized exchange called ShibbaSwap, and a fully-fledged community.
Although, it has to be mentioned that apart from the tokens and the growing community, which is caused by the rising price and nothing more, there’s nothing else that’s currently complete, begging the question if SHIB’s valuation is justified or not.
In any case, SHIB is an Ethereum-based ERC20 token that is also nicknamed the “dogecoin killer” within the project’s community.
2️⃣ The Unanticipated Major Holder of SHIB
SHIB has a total token supply of 1 quadrillion. 50% of it has been locked as liquidity to Uniswap.
However, the other half is where it gets interesting.
The team behind SHIB has sent 500 trillion tokens to the co-founder of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin.
Commenting on the matter in the project’s whitepaper, the founder, who’s anonymous (unlike Dogecoin’s founders), said:
“We sent over 50% of the TOTAL supply to Vitalik. There is no greatness without a vulnerable point and as long as VB (Vitalik Buterin) doesn’t rug us, then SHIBA will grow and survive.”
The funny thing is that following the meteoric increase in SHIB, which is up over 300,000% since February 2021 until the time this guide is published, Buterin’s SHIB tokens are worth a lot more than his ETH.
At the time of this writing, Buterin’s ETH is worth around $1.4 billion, whereas the SHIB in his public account is worth around $15 billion.
📌 Actually donated 1B worth To India Covid Relief Fund! So India needs to convert them into cash..
I t means that there will be a high possibility for a major drop on Shiba !
3️⃣ The SHIB Token: What Is It Used For?
It’s worth noting that the entire Shiba Inu ecosystem consists of three tokens – SHIB, LEASH, and BONE.
Once their decentralized exchange, Shiba Swap, is ready (which is currently supposedly ongoing security tests and audits), users will be able to stake their tokens and earn rewards. For staking SHIB, users receive xSHIB, for staking LEASH – xLEASH, and for BONE – tBone.
Per the white paper, this is how the incentives look like:
There are incentives for xLEASH and tBONE holders as well.
4️⃣ SHIB: The Must-Read Things to Consider Before Buying
While the SHIB cryptocurrency has one of the fastest-growing communities with hundreds of thousands of people throughout their different social media channels, there are a few things to keep in mind when looking into the project.
- First, their official Medium page has two posts only – the first one was the announcement of the development, and the second one was an update that came many months later and didn’t really give any notable updates.
- The SHIB founder is anonymous – it’s really unclear how many developers are working on the project, and there’s no precise roadmap as to when users can expect project updates and deliverables such as the Shiba Swap exchange.
-The total supply is 1 quadrillion tokens – that’s a lot!
Half of them are presumably burned because they were sent to Vitalik Buterin. It’s a speculation to discuss whether he would do something with them, but given his status in the community – it’s unlikely he would do something to harm the ecosystem. However, there are plenty of token holders who are in possession of a high percentage of the remaining 50%, which is a red flag.
- As of writing these lines, the SHIB token had already increased more than 18,000% over the past few months, which entitled it a spot in the top 25 largest cryptocurrencies with a market cap of $12 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. Is SHIB overvalued? only time will tell.
📚 Thanks to George Georgiev for his great article about SHIB.
📌 There are some red flags for SHIB,
- Unknown founders
- Low activity from SHIB's team on social medias
- High amount of tokens
- Locked tokens and huge whales
- Overheated based on HTF chart
Also on chart; It don't looks good already, There will be a retest on higher resistances or broken bullish trendline because of limited volatility.
But generally it's really weak to break higher levels I guess !
The only for bulls is too bounce back above bullish trendline and it's not going to happen with current rates on BTC.
I'm not saying that SHIB is not good at all and there is no reason for it do grow; At least it have some projects and events !
Also SHIB is an Ethereum-based ERC20 token, So it's not bad at first view.. It's better than DOGE actually.
But it's not a good time to enter assets with low trust factors, Remember as SHIBA's founder is anonymous so it can become a scam coin.
I won't risk my money for being rich overnight; Also FIBBO retracement and most of the technical indicators can't give a desired result...
🔴 I don't mean to criticize any other person, I just tried to help people on my own vision!
Hope I can help you to choose the correct way for investing !
Always do your own research...
Thanks.
@Helical_Trades
USDJPY- Buy signal on the Demand ZoneTechnical Analysis:
-From the Weekly to the daily, it shows a strong bullish trend .
-Price has been trading in the ascending channel since 27th April.
-We should look for a long entry on the retracement of the supply zone.
-According to the algorithm, it forecasts that price could shoot up to 1.18% in the next 20 days.
-This is a good indication to enter long for this position.
Fundamental Analysis:
- On Friday, There is going to be a big impact news regarding the USD at 1:30.
- The news release is on the Non-farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate.
-I would avoid trading around this time.
Sentiment Analysis:
- According to market sentiment, 71% of retail traders are short on this pair.
- Normally I would go against the retail traders as 90% of them lose their capital.
- Asset managers/ industrials are all placing long positions for this pair.
Lets see how this trade plans out!
Make sure to Follow, like and comment your ideas for this pair!
EURAUD- Sell Limit on the Liquidity ZoneTechnical Analysis:
-On the Weekly and Daily timeframe shows strong bearish momentum
-There has been a breakout of the ascending triangle and looking to to enter on the retest of the liquidity zone.
-Price has been in a downtrend since 23rd March 2020.
-We should wait for a breakout and a retracement of the supply/liquidity zone to look for a short setup.
-According to the algorithm, price could drop down 0.40% in the next 20 days. The algorithm also shows that the longterm prediction of this pair could last till the 26th May 2021.
-This is a good indication to enter short on this position before we could see a potential trend change in the future.
Fundamental Analysis:
- There are are no high impact news for news which could affect either EUR or AUD for the rest of the week.
Sentiment Analysis:
- According to market sentiment, 91% of retail traders are short on this pair.
- Normally I would go against the retail traders as 90% of them lose their capital.
- The large banks are heavily short on this pair.
Lets see how this trade plans out!
Make sure to follow, like and comment your ideas for this pair!
AUDCAD- Retracement of Liquidity/Supply ZoneTechnical Analysis:
-From the 4 Hour and 1 Hour chart show strong bearish momentum.
-Price has been in a downtrend since 26th April 2021.
-We should wait for a breakout and a retracement of the supply/liquidity zone to look for a short setup.
-According to the algorithm, price could drop down 0.44% for the week and a further 0.60% for the month.
-This is a good indication to enter short on this position.
Fundamental Analysis:
- There are are no high impact news for Monday 3rd May.
- For AUD, there are two major impact news on Tuesday 4th May and I would avoid trading this pair nearing the time of news release.
- For CAD, there are two major impact news on Friday 7th May and I would avoid trading this pair nearing the time of news release.
Sentiment Analysis:
- According to market sentiment, 94% of retail traders are short on this pair.
- Normally I would go against the retail traders as 90% of them lose their capital.
- Asset managers and institutional Investors are all placing short positions for this pair.
Lets see how this trade plans out!
Make sure to follow, like and comment your ideas for this pair!
BTC/USDT : We may see 40K in this week | Sell setup RR 11 BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Hello everyone 😃
BTC is at very important level now.
MA50 ( 4hours TF ) is holding movement from below and MA50 ( Daily TF ) is controlling movement from above.
So next hours will be very important for bulls to use MA50 ( 4hours TF ) to hold their lead on BTC !
Based on CME information :
CME institutional are still very confident in the bear market, and they gained even more shorts last week, which are almost 3 times more than longs.
Now Based on sentimental analysis; Market makers will try to take advantage of this status on mid week;
So there is a chance to have a quick liquidity event specially on BTC which is going to be so quick to shake weak hands one more time...
And it will cause a bull trap by doing this and then we may see more volatility on both sides and so; Day traders will try to cash out of BTC to see what will happen on market !
In continue we'll see a rejection on MA50 ( 4hour TF ); Because of recent cash outs !
We mentioned 3 types of vision on BTC ( Technical - Fundamental, Information - Sentimental ).
After all the proper vision is for price action.
There is a resistance zone ( 56750$ - 56300$ ) which formed because of master candle's shadow ( on 15mins TF ) and order block on recent retest on current level.
So we expect a rejection here and below lower yellow zone ( 54400$ - 54000$ ) will confirm that bears are taking the lead !
BTC don't have enough volume to have a huge volatility in minor directions; And cause of this reason, Major lines will select the direction for BTC !
Now there is a major support line ( in low TF - 1hour's chart ) at 52300$; It's formed at the bottom of a gravestone DOJI candle. /"
In continuation; If 52300$ failed to hold BTC, Then we may see a engulf formation on movement and make lower our targets to lower support zone ( 49500$ - 49150$ ).
Also this support zone has formed because of master candle's shadow.
⚠ This setup is not suggested to in bull market; But in current situation with current BTC's dominance rate.
It's highly possible for BTC to act as our plan !
🔴 Any 4H close above 57450$ can invalidate this trading plan.
📌 The most important scales are moving averages; It seems that they are forming a triangle in continuation of their movement.
Hope you enjoyed our analysis about BTC's possible rejection🙌
You can support us with your likes.
Also you can share your opinion with us in comments 😉🙋🏼♂️
Attention: this isn't financial advice we are just trying to help people on their own vision.
Have a good day!
@Helical_Trades
Silver in a new bullish channel!Due to the change in the price trend since March 8 and after hitting the strong support range of $25, it seems that Silver buyers are stronger in market which formed a trend bullish channel.
However, if the power is rediscovered for the sellers, it is not unexpected to hit the support range and return back to this position.