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Sentiment Studies

SPY Looking To Breakout - Cup & Handle Forming.From now on I'm going to be leaving my bias out of these posts as I wouldn't want to corrupt anyone else's bias. With that being said, I'm going to let this chart that I made for your review speak for itself. I will say one thing tho. If I had seen this setup before close on 7/10 I would've swung calls into today. Possible scenarios: (Trade with caution) Let's see how this turns out though. We'll either test $322 and breakthrough to complete the V, hit $322 and consolidate for a couple days, or see a strong rejection around the $320 price point, give or take. Here's a brief breakdown of the setup: A bull flag pending breakout with a cup and handle setup confirming a possible breakout. P.S. Please bare with me as I'm still fairly new to TradingView and learning how to better my analysis. Feel free to give me a follow or a comment if you like the setup. Thanks, Ola.
AMEX:SPY
by OlaOluwalade
USA - Bearish Outlook - Part 3This is the last of a 3-part US Outlook Analysis. The current post shows different mood indicators and all of them indicate the mood as negative. Top left is the Price/Sales Ratio of SP500 in a decreasing path that should trend to the most probable target at around 1.70. Bottom left is the Market Cap as a % of GDP and which is decreasing since 2018. Middle top is the consumer confidence index which is trending down and decreased already more than 30% since 2018. Middle bottom shows the volume of equity fund assets in relation to money market funds. The last value of this series is for the third quarter of 2019 and at that time this indicator level was the same as July 2008. Bottom right is DJI prices measured in Gold and it shows a long and short-term divergence with the index value. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
MShort
by SkylinePro
Coronavirus vs. the Economy: Covid19 Recovery High HopesCurrently, the Coronavirus growth have resulted in one of the steepest negative correlations ever seen for a variety of different things. I comparatively looked at: the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, the VANGUARD MALVER/SHORT-TERM INFLATION, S&P Global Inc's stock price, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and an Oil Gas Index and seen steep downward spirals, as well as a positive correlation curve right afterwards. Even with the ADR being 1.68 as a decline ration, this is quite good. This means that people are starting to reinvest in the economy, and the steep downwards trend has likely been a result of panic selling. Behavioral psychology is a huge part of this. Even as Coronavirus is expected to hit the 3 million mark soon (and I have been analyzing the entire Covid19 history looking at growth rate), I can see within few month it hitting 5 million and so on. This is with it being curved. Herd immunity also can play a role in slowing everything down as places open back up. Again, don't take what I say seriously or at face value, but I think that the supply and demand curve for most of the economy's assets should stabilize, and expect everything to go back up. It is a slow recovery process, but not looking too detrimental. People could have been making decent gains during the Coronavirus period, but also huge losses. The best trading strategies do well in both a bullish and bearish market.
CLong
by gamer456148
USDJPY Retracement PossibilitiesWe have some room upward and technically this pair is trying to rebound from higher period SMA 200 RED (dynamic support). Fundamental wise we knew till this day that king didn't wanted to back off! I had earlier created a bullish bias idea on this major pair but I messed up with fast entry as overall I knew from the beginning this was mean to happen ( I mean the continuations upward). Dollar was hiding it's potential from the beginning and until it made mood to fall apart most of counter parts will suffer the pain I reckon.
Long
by jessi061
1
AUDJPY Possible Bearish Continuation Price floating below the long period SMA 200 (red) and trading under the weekly and daily pivot point already indicting bearish sentiment for this pair. Comdolls aren't doing well and the risk bets are not good so far which we can see from the price action in most of comdolls related pairs like au,uc,nu. Yen and dollar ruling over the market this week so far which let me think that this pair might drop further lower if market mode are in risk off.
Short
by jessi061
2
Buying vs Selling Pt2- Who's really in CONTROL?Part 2 here is all about CONTROL . As I said in part 1, people tend to equate green candles with buying and red with selling but the default coloring is wrong and does not reflect the actual actions of smart money. Like color, a common misconception is that if the day is red and way down, people are selling off. The reality is most of the time the market is down because buyers are in control . Think about the stock market the same way you might think about a housing market for a moment. Have you ever heard "it's a seller's market" or "a buyer's market"? What's going on in those markets? Usually in a sellers market, the homeowner lists their house, gets a ton of bids, and chooses the highest bidder. They may even decide they listed too low or change their mind. In a buyers market they may not be so fortunate to get a lot of bids and the bids that come in may be below their asking price. Depending on their motivation, the homeowner in a buyers market might sell for below their asking because they are in a dire situation where they need the money or are spooked that prices are going to continue to fall. In a lot of cases, that's not too far from stock markets. Think about the last month or so with the COVID-19 pandemic and look at this chart- Who's really in control here? You always hear people saying, "Sellers at it again" when we have these -7% trading halts. The reality is closer to this though, who really wants to BUY in a time like this? Sellers have lost control. Through much of the crash you could not sell your shares for yesterday's price because the buyers on the other end of the table said no thanks, I think I can get a better price to buy at later. Here's an example of the December 2018 correction and some insight as to the balance of control- Until you understand it better, thinking of control and phases this way seems counter-intuitive. Why is the price RISING if people are SELLING? Or why would price be FALLING if we're supposedly BUYING? I like to look at it in terms of these phases (on main chart)- Buyers Collect -> Chase -> Sellers Profit -> Panic Most of us are dumb money, retail traders. Oh, and we're HUMAN. We struggle emotionally with harvesting profits because we get greedy and our heart starts pounding when we see heavy volume and giant red candles. Combining color and control on a couple intraday examples-
AMEX:SPYEducation
by chrism665
14
Buying vs Selling Pt1- COLOR, Most have it completely backwardsI'm making a little educational series of tutorials to put some of my trading philosophies into writing for myself but also to help teach anyone interested or provide a fresh perspective to others. Let's start with COLOR . From indicator lines, fill regions, background colors, arrows, to barcolors (be it from an indicator or just the basic candle), most traders are looking at a green candle and a red candle in reverse. Novice traders see a big fat candle and think, "Wow, lots of BUYING" then see a huge red candle and think, "Lots of SELLING". I think we inherently associate green with money and like to see lots of green when we have long positions. And then we associate red with emotions of fear and panic, bad things. Let's have a look at a chart of SPY using the "Ehlers Instantaneous Trend" with ribbon and barcolor to help identify trends and paint them the color we are accustomed to seeing- Very quickly I'm sure a lot of people think the coloring makes sense and might be looking up the Ehler indicator right now (it is a really cool one so go ahead). What we're seeing is this- Most of the time the green candles have been when SPY has been rising Most of the time the red candles have been when SPY has been falling Seems natural to buy when you see these green candles going up and sell/avoid buying when you see red candles going down. The problem is that that's what dumb money does! They buy when smart money is SELLING. Those green candles are actually the result of a smart buyer who timed things correctly and bought at the lows and is now 1) holding onto their shares, 2) waiting for sell signals. And when those red candles start showing up, dumb money gets all panicky and starts selling their shares. They might wait for closing cost to fall beneath a moving average or some other indicator, then they start selling and voila- capitulation. The price those sellers get is probably not great and when it's all said and done was not very much above what their entry price was. But as people are selling, smart money is BUYING. They are fishing for a bottom to start accumulating shares. They look for really 'red' days with lots of volume, a perfect cocktail of emotion that gets weak hands to tremble and chase the price down before capitulating and selling for whatever price they can get. And usually when this is occurring, the bottom forms. Let's reverse the colors of the bars and start seeing things through the lens of smart money- Now if you are still associating green with buying and red with selling, the world should make much more sense. When the candles turn green here you're a buyer and when they turn red you're a seller. That doesn't mean buy the first candle and every candle, all the time, every time. It means that is when you are waiting patiently for the most opportune moment to buy. And when these candles are red you aren't freaking out and selling, you tell yourself "I am looking for moments when I can take some profits off the board when we get really crazy moves up, and maybe replace some of those shares with a few new shares I purchase at lows or on some bad days". The point is that this is a selling phase. I will go into depth as to why selling phases go up*, because I know that's a concept that people struggle with psychologically. (* there's two kinds of selling, as well as buying, which we'll get into). Here are some close-ups on candles and their default colors- Same chart, colors flipped -
AMEX:SPYEducation
by chrism665
11
GBPJPY Cross Pair: 🐻 Bear In Action Matter of fact knowing poor equity market performance from last night we got a strong dollar and yen. This two currencies had gain against other currencies well through out the day. Lower risk appetites market situation favored the yen leading this cross pair price further lower. Bear 🐻 has already weighed over this pair and I think if market players aren't willing for risk bets and dumb their moolahs in yen. This cross pair will continue it's bearish trend until the risk sentiment favor for risk bets. Also pound isn't doing well seeing the GBPUSD we can know that bears are weighing slowly over that market and knowing the huge plunge over EURJPY cross pair makes us think that GBPJPY may take advantage equally.
Short
by jessi061
GBPUSD Intraday Risk Bets PlanI feel like this pair has some room upward and I have checked it on multiple time frame where it's only pointing me out that there is still some room upward. I am well aware of this major pair broad picture and it's trying to shift trend on higher resolution from bullish to bearish (knowing the fact it's overall bearish trend for higher time frame due to some fundamental cases). Sometime things doesn't go straight forward and even if it had to fall in future days it will obviously fall but after hitting some key level at ceiling which is why i'm saying it might have some room upward.
Long
by jessi061
5
Nikkei 225 Possibilities of DowntrendYen is getting nasty leading against the dollar and some comdolls which might create pressure for Nikkie. Japan seeks to quarantine all overseas arrivals for 14 days which might create some issue to the travel and tourism sectors. The likelihood of the manufacturing recession deepening in the coming months is high. The latest data showed a sharp fall in inventories of inputs, which firms are going to find challenging to replenish in order to sustain factory production. Hits multi-year lows from manufacturers and non-manufacturers on today's Tankan reports.
TVC:NI225Short
by jessi061
USDJPY Intraday Plan: W formation Spotted!Felt like buyers wanna take some advantage sentiment wise and seem like they wanna push the price upward which might work for intraday prolly. I caught W formation ( double bottom: reversal pattern ) and on Higher Timeframe doesn't seems much bearish domination so there could be chance for bulls to weigh over market in lower time frame indeed. Bear in mind with taking proper risk management in play if you ever plan to take this idea. Thanks for reading my idea and I hope you enjoyed and if you think it added some value in your trading don't forget to support me by hitting a thumbs up button! (LIKE)
by jessi061
2
EURUSD Short Swing PlanEuro is in manipulation prolly due to the global condition at the moment by this pandemic. Trillions and billions of moolah been printed out from global center banks are just an rotten news at this point and everyone is racing against to combat the virus and protecting their own plunging economy. System has already cracked and no idea how long it might be going this way. Debt rising eventually in all nations but could help escalate back the economy for some strong nations who are good at credit ratings. Sorry I was falling into macros by the way talking about euro technically it's been in a huge bearish trend for months or even a year in higher time frame. Don't get excited with ups and down in lower pictures young boys and girls. The reason only it was doing fine against king (buck) at small timeframes were when low yielding had charms like babe yellow metal in shine! I have figure out closely like a head and shoulder pattern in 2 hour resolution and I reckon if this pattern workout it might move price upward making the right shoulder. But....!!! a big but!!! If this head and shoulder doesn't workout in first place and price plunge lower with strong bearish momentum (after all the broad picture is either way a bearish trend) without making any sign of creating right shoulder then our short bias can workout smoothly. The good thing about this trade plan is that it's guaranteed that either you make money or lose money as it's so transparent that if price make right shoulder which will equal to stopped out! We got an edge i mean even if we get right and even if we get wrong we will know it clearly ahead that what we have to prepare for! Thanks for reading my idea and I hope you enjoyed and if you think it added some value in your trading don't forget to support me by hitting a thumbs up button! (LIKE)
Short
by jessi061
17
Apple At Dynamic Support (SMA 200)It's floating around the dynamic support (SMA 200) which can prolly hold price falling from further lower if overall market index showing positive sentiment. Stochastic supporting the bullish momentum. Knowing that China is open for business more than two months after imposing quarantines to counter the coronavirus, China is getting back to work. With new infections dwindling, factories are restarting, stores are reopening, and people are venturing outdoors. In some ways, China is where the U.S. and Europe hope to be within weeks or months.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by jessi061