Get started

Sentiment Studies

FTSE CHINA A50 Possible Price Rebound?Price was within the descending channel for this equity index and lately, china had done very well combating the virus outbreak and it has lower death rate comparing to Italy and thousand have already been recovered where new cases weren't escalating the way it used to like past. This all proves that china is one of a great nation around the world which may prolly rise back first from this global pandemic chaos in the near future. It was the origin of that cruel virus and people have suffered a lot in the past which I believe the virus cases have reached its peak till today and nothing can get more worst if they continue holding this virus within the jar till the vaccine development. The easing of restrictions comes as Hubei reported that new infections dropped to zero on March 19. A dramatic plunge from the height of an epidemic that’s infected around 81,171 Chinese and killed over 3,277 but recovered 73,159 (which is a great achievement) on the date report 2020 March 24. China to lift lockdown over virus epicenter Wuhan on April 8 allowing transportation to resume for the city. All these positive changes in china let me feel that it may help domestic equities to run smoothly in the near weeks or months creating a rebound on the price action for this index. At least for short to mid-term even if it's not an overall reversal it may have probabilities to create new swing highs.
CLong
by jessi061
BTC- Volume, derivative, macro... Decoupling finally?For the first time since the corona virus started to ravaging the market in late Feb, BTC's price decouples from that of stock market. Please click like or follow me if you like my post! Really appreciated it. A lot of people think BTC failed its role as the recession-proof safe heaven. What they fail to understand is the true purpose of BTC, which is created to resist the unlawful seizure and confiscation, to avoid the loss of purchasing power typically associated with fiats due to their inflationary nature and to avoid the defunct that comes with the sovereign debt risk. BTC never claimed and nor does it ever try to be the safe-heaven asset during the recession. In order to make that assertion, it needs to be the asset that has the low volatility because investors tend to hold the low-volatility assets during the time of uncertainty. Few Macro list to go through #1. Recession is overdue for the U.S economy and Coronavirus could just be that catalyst that pops the debt bubble. The recession talk is, perhaps, premature, but not unwarranted. All three major stock market indexs' SMA 50 are ready to cross below their SMA 200. On the bright side, SPX and DOW have bullish divergence on the daily timeframe while Nasdaq does not. #2. If you believe the stock market will not fall below S&P's 2017 high, then we are near the bottom. IF you think we will go below 2017 high, then we still have the room to go even lower. #3. Pay attention to this moth's unemployment related indicators, retail metrics, manufacturing-related indexes and housing-related signals. Reports about rising jobless claims along with the potential 20% unemployment figure, if proven true, could further dampen investor's confidence. #4. Market will not fully recover from the coronovirus panic until the exponential growth slows down. Currently, U.S is approaching 10000 cases and the exponential growth does not seem to be slowing down even with the social distancing measure in place. Next week will be critical because spring break is just right around the corner... #5. It was a little disconcerting to see 1.5 trillion stimulus package to have a very little to no impact on the market. However, you can count on president Trump to do everything he can do rescue the freefalling stock market. U.S senate just passed the coronavirus relief bill and a larger aid package is expected to follow. Moreover, ECB just announced the stimulus package as well. The effect of all these measures will be determined once we get the more definitive timeline. #6. Did all the big players get out of their underwater positions in time or are they waiting to sell into the next rally before the market dips even further? If BTC continues to move on its own, then we can ignore everything I said above! If not, the strength of the U.S economy will determine which kind of halving we will see.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Libratus
CADJPY Not an overall reversal but prolly retracement?BOC coming near and most of the currencies having this comdoll as a base or counter losing against the other side currency example FOREXCOM:USDCAD , it all give us some hint that market participant was dumbing loonie before its meeting. It may have retracement upward but overall deciding for now the overall market reversal might have fewer chances before the BOC meeting which market participants aren't feeling good about seeing the market sentiment on this cross pair we can say. We can have an eye on this pair this new week and examine how price action behaves. Technically those red and green lines on the chart are areas of interest which serve as support and resistance and those level hold some weigh as the price will respect them. Talking with weekly pivot point man! price was too savage last Friday which breached through weekly s3 of the pivot. Price taking breath for now @ 80.68 and it seems more then half % has already been priced in before the BOC meeting by market players at this point which let me think at least once that 80.68 level might hold price for a while and short retracement upward around 30.20% Fibonacci retracement level or even 50% might be a scenario depending on how market players sentiment changes between the time horizon of current to actual meeting release of BOC. Are you a range-bound market environment lover? Honestly, did you care about the light blue rectangle box yet? hehe.. :) If price repeats or respect this market environment man it will add some sugar on this retracement plan! Break lower with strong bearish momentum from 80.68 or 80.079 should signal us weak comdoll and further continuation lower of price ignoring the retracement probabilities.
Long
by jessi061
4
Indicators: My Issues with BoP: Part #2In Part #1, we established how technical indicators - even the ones with high potential to be leading indicators that may enable revealing possible upcoming price movements, using the example of the Balance of Power (BoP), can come short of taking into consideration all factors associated with the price - we listed 7 specific issues that may cause BoP to show inaccuracies and a trader who depends on BoP for trading signals, need to either be aware of them, or adjust the indicator to address these issues. so what's the idea here? why am I posting this? the concepts i address here impact traders today. i see many fellow traders using MACD or RSI or other methods without the complete understanding of what exactly the signals are telling them - while i'm not a guru by any means, i thought i can share an example here of one of the highly potential concepts and a famous indicator, its shortcomings, and how it may be possible to tweak and adjust it to make it more reliable to the way each of us wants to trade. It becomes "your own system" - it interprets the movement the way *you want to visually interpret it* - and produces signals that you understand exactly what they means and you can rely on, to make a trade (entry / exit) decisions, score more winners, less losers -- it's a step into the "DIY" world of technical indicators if you would. In this part, we pick one of the issues from part #1, and see how we can possibly fix it. and see what this "upgraded" BoP would look like. i'll take the issue of "BoP not taking into consideration where the close of the bar is, compared to the full range of the bar" as we know, if the bar closes near the high, this is a usually very bullish sign, and vice versa. the Shooting Star example (right-most bar in the chart) is an up bar, where close is > open - and as such, the classic BoP gives it a positive score. we all know how bearish a shooting star is - it's a scary pattern to the long trader - if BoP is accurate, it should result in some negative value for such a bar. our update #1 adds a simple calculation - on top of the classic (Body / Range) BoP calculation. It also adds another score for where the bar closes compared to the High. if it closes exactly on the high, it gets a positive +100% and if it closes at the low, it gets a negative -100% -- then the scores are added together and averaged to produce a more accurate representation of the bar - that representation is closer to the way you, as a trader, would have in mind when you "visually" inspect the bar. take a look now as you meet BoP II :) -- some of you would say "Aha!" - now the shooting star gets the negative BoP score it deserves :) i further marked few note-worthy bars on the top chart where the score of the upgraded BoP formula, with this simple technique, is considerably (in my view) different than the classic BoP score - check for yourself if the BoP II score makes more sense to you, and is closer to your "visual" assessment of how bearish / bullish a bar looks to you. on the lower BoP indicator, you can see the difference in action, between the old and the new calculation - also marked areas where old BoP would have shown strength where is should show weakness, or the other way around. in conclusion, i suspect some may be wondering -- 'OK, if we fix all issues with BoP - add volume & spread impacts and factor in the "context" of where the bar is within a trend - do we get the "holy grail" indicator of all times? we'll see -maybe in future parts - please let me know if you find this research interesting of if you have comments.
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by RedKTrader
Indicators: My Issues with BoPI guess it's the same story with many traders, few years ago, when i first got introduced to the world of technical analysis and indicators, i was fascinated. trading is such an easy thing, just follow the indicator signals, right? then i started to dig deeper only to learn, each indicator shows something specific - and you need to know what is it that you need to see for your trading style, then choose the right indicator and the right values.. etc. my trading setup started changing from there endlessly. then came the other lesson, indicators alone do not make a successful trader - nothing can predict the future, and an indicator only shows specific "signs" at a specific time - what happens next is subject to so many variables, and some of these variables are even sometimes influenced by big players who may not be all playing in the same direction .. however, indicators still help - but in that case, less is more, and a cleaner chart setup with less indicators would then be the right way to go. so take your pick, MACD, RSI, Stoc, ...etc - and throw in couple of moving averages on the top chart, and you're good to go. that's where BoP comes into play. the Balance of Power is a very interesting indicator that has the potential to show "leading signs" - BoP has been around since the '70's and there are various stories about who is the original "father" of BoP - in all cases, the BoP formula is not a secret anymore - BoP simply divides the "body" by the "range" of a bar - so take (close - open) and divide it by the (high - low). since (high - low) is always a positive value, if it's a down bar (closes lower than the open), you will get a negative result - if it's an up bar, positive. now the Bulls get the positive value (and for that bar, the bears get a zero), and bears get the negative value (and again, the bulls get a zero) - so BoP shows who is in control of price movement (bulls vs bears), and if we know that - then we can expect, for example, a trend up to continue or dissipate, right? i will post further analysis on this if there's interest, and dive into each of the "issues" i highlighted here - but i thought to share initially those "issues with BoP" here in this community - and why i think that the Balance of Power comes short of delivering on the premise - and it's time for an upgrade - leveraging the available computing power and scripting languages we now have available at our fingertips. the attached chart shows 6 issues that the BoP indicator doesn't address in its classic calculation - for my own education, i decided i wanted to "see BoP" for each bar - so the "value cards" we see here are the classic BoP values for each bar - then these values are taken and smoothed using a moving average to produce the green line in the lower panel. i modified the calculation slightly to make it oscillate between +/- 100 , then smoothed with a WMA(3) .. on the value card, we can see that modified "BoPx" value for each bar. my thoughts are "if BoP is right and reliable, why would a well-known bearish chart pattern like a shooting star not have a negative value" - right? those who are like me, curious about technical indicators and like to create their own, may find this analysis as interesting as i did. Let's here from you folks. if you have the chance to re-develop or improve "the BoP", how would you approach that to ensure that it really brings the accurate insights that it should ? Let me know your thoughts. feel free to post here or PM. (the code i use here is open and available, but it's really not an indicator - it's more of a research code) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- //@version=4 study("BoP Lower #1") // This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at mozilla.org // © RedKTrader // this is a research study - it plots the value of the Balance of Power on each bar length = input(title="Length", type=input.integer, defval=7, minval=3, step=1) body = close - open range = high - low score = body / range * 100 bulls = if score > 0 score else 0 bears = if score < 0 -score else 0 //create an index scaled from +100 to -100 dx = wma(bulls, length) / wma(bears,length) dxi = 2 * (100 - 100 / (1+dx)) - 100 // ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- //print values on top chart //alternate labels once above and once below //c = bar_index % 2 == 0 //T = "Bulls = " + tostring(round(bulls)) + " Bears = " + tostring(round(bears)) + " ----------" + " BoP = " + tostring(round(dxi)) //label.new (bar_index, c ? low : high , text = T, size = size.normal, textalign = text.align_left , style = c ? label.style_labelup : label.style_labeldown, color = color.white, textcolor = color.black ) // ================================================================================================================================== // lower plot -- hline(0, color = color.yellow, linestyle = hline.style_solid) plot (wma(score, length), title = 'Classic BoP', color = color.green) plot(dxi, title='BoPx',style=plot.style_line , color = color.gray , linewidth=1) plot(wma(dxi,3), title='BoP II',style=plot.style_line , color= dxi >=0 ? color.aqua : color.orange , linewidth=2)
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by RedKTrader
Eurchf market overview and trade ideasLagarde’s surprisingly dovish presser from the U.S. session spooked EUR bulls and this anti-EUR sentiment carried over to the Asian session. The pair looks like it could retrace above the previous area of interest or around daily pivots R2 or 50% of Fibonacci retracement as because the short term moving average may suggest bullish trend but actually the long term indicate us it remains bearish still on the 1-hour time frame. Another rejection from the previous area of interest or rejection from descending trend line or from any Fibonacci retracement levels as mention above could send the pair beyond the level 1.06999. A break above the 50% Fib, descending trendline, daily pivot levels any and 200 SMA could signal for a move back up to the 1.0790 but to be honest with the current situation of eurozone I feel less supportive for the euro currency after Lagarde told a news conference that risks to growth in the eurozone remained tilted to the downside and which overall tone as dovish for me including other traders I assume plus knowing that today german outlook only doing fine overall but leaving eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jan) only fine not the service and Markit Composite bull traders got no much reason to boost the euro higher.
Short
by jessi061