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September

UK100 short in next two monthsUk100 is always the odd one to trade. I’m expecting this to fall to 6800 area in the next two months. It won’t happen quickly, there is a major support at 7220-7080, and even stronger support at 6950-7000. Look into previous years: September - November are statistically the weakest months for trading. It doesn’t mean this year will be the same but I would be very careful on going long now. Despite what some might say, the economies are slowing down. GDP for last two quarters proves that(dictionary definition of recession). Good numbers on employment don’t mean sh** . When interests will go up more and more, people start to struggle to pay bills and mortages, losing jobs… and everyone will surprise that markets colapse! Sure you can go long now, but if you expect ATH, I’m not sure if we can see that in next 16-18 months. The recent rally was just a bear rally- powered by retail traders. I don’t see any reason to convince me otherwise at the moment. I’m not a financial advisor, trading is risky, always do your own analisys before trading.
OANDA:UK100GBPShort
by Trinnisia_Trades
MY IDEA FOR THE LAST 3 DAYS OF OCTOBER I see the same pattern playing out as I see in the last few days in September. If that happens, then this will play out: We then went from 43k to 40k. (-7%). We are now down from 63k to 58k (-7.5%) Then we saw a bounce up in September. (from around 4%). If that happens now, we'll see 60,500. (still 2% to go) Then in September we saw a bounce back from 42.5 to 40k. (-4%) That would now be a retest of the 58k level. (from 60500, about 4%) And then up to 43k (6% up) And that would now be back to 63k (7.5% up)
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FibonacciTheGreat
BTC: prepare yourself for significant pullback. September's hereThe live Bitcoin price today is $47.484,57 USD, -0,10% in the last 24h, with a 24-hour trading volume of $33.399.961.250 USD. Since the 20% correction of 7th September, BTC price found its support at 42.7k level and it is now already up 10%. After multiple times testing the support represented by the lower band of the Keltner channel, on 13th September price broke to the upside and it’s now approaching the upper level of the channel, our short entry price. Historically in fact, whenever the price hit these levels, it immediately started a reversal pattern, therefore, being now the price close to the upper band I expect a pullback to test lower support levels. Indicators are also pointing out to a possible correction in the next few days: RSI is almost overbought (65), volumes are decreasing and MACD looks ready to cross below the trendline . I expect the price to increase up to 48k-50k, for later undergoing an even more significant correction compared to the latter. September in fact has always been a particular bearish month for crypto markets, with corrections up to 35%. This is why I expect to price to retrace at least up to 0,5 level of Fibonacci retracement tool. Never the less, RSI divergence is 19 and prices are still above all moving averages, therefore as the trend still looks bullish with price above 200EMA scalpers/ swing traders can still consider taking a long position up to when the bearish fractal appea rs. For short term/futures traders in fact it can be profitable to open a long position before undergoing short, targeting lower support levels. More risk adverse traders could instead consider going short when the confirmations appear, so wait for the bearish fractal (green triangle) as well as for the confirmation of increasing volumes. A bearish fractal occurs when there is a high point with two lower high bars/candles on each side of it. The indicator isolates potential turning points on a price chart. A bearish fractal signals the price could move lower. POSITION: short ENTRY PRICE: >47.8 k TARGETS: 45.7k / 43.7k / 42k / 41k / 38.7k STOPLOSS: 49.7k (¬ 3%) It can happen that after retracing from the upper level of the Keltner channel, the price finds support on the moving average, our first target (middle blue line). If this is the case I would personally consider taking profits and going long after the confirmations (bullish fractal and RSI). _____________________________________ NOT FINACIAL ADVICE
Short
by Lari_Pen
Is the wedge pattern real in Australia?In this post, we will analyze the principles and features of the AUD / USD currency pair and identify the points and signs of buying and selling. Basics Minutes of the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting were held at 6 am Iranian time today. The following is a summary of this meeting. The meeting discussed the slowdown in Australia's economic growth compared to other countries in the world. Comments were also made on the effectiveness of vaccination and the limitations of Covid 19 in preventing further outbreaks. It was decided not to increase bank interest rates until 2024 Unemployment is falling in developed countries and labor demand is so high that wages have risen, members said. They are going to continue to buy bonds. The Bank of Australia bond-buying program is also expanding faster than the securities of many central banks. Members also stressed the importance of maintaining lending standards. They found that the Delta outbreak delayed recovery and increased uncertainty about the future. Technically The AUD / USD hit a low of 0.71 on 20 August 2021 and a high of 0.748 on 3 September. Prices have been on a downward channel since September 3. Within 15 minutes, we see the formation of a corner pattern. The best time to enter trades is when signs of a downturn are seen in the market. Key points If the corner pattern matches the image: First T / P = 0.7255 Second T / P = 0.724 If it is contrary to the pattern of the image, it means that the triangle is broken upwards: First T / P = 0.7285 Second T / P 0.73 =
Short
by mohamadrezaKhorsand
1
BE ALERT......!!!!!! BTC BACK TO EARTH AGAIN %% ---___?BTC seems like reversal from 51250 to 45000............?// Confirmations # Fibonacci 0.618 level between ATH & last dump (28000) it will be strong resistant.... # Day chart pivot level is indicate from 45000 level because it's didn't touch recently... If you agree with this show me a another confirmation I Didn't mentioned hear If you don't agreed with this and show me your reasons I'm very appreciate your good of bad respond think you All.....!!!!! Follow me for further btc & alts updates
Short
by USHIVANKA
End of era news n°35> FDA approves Pfizer vaccine (a great company, diversified, and with a PE ratio < half the S&P 500 one) *********************** Last week the US FDA approved the Pfizer vaccine, which will now be commercialized as Comirnaty. The price to earnings of Pfizer is 20, versus Moderna 50 and the S&P 500 average of 45. Pfizer is well diversified and was relatively cheap even before the latest coronavirus pandemic. What was missing was hype & large growth potential. Lobsters do not age, and bats can repair their dna. The potential is here. This might be one of the companies with the greatest potential ever. RNA technology risks are unknown so we have to assume they are high (or it is gambling) and the reward is also high, very high. They have raised their prices and as anyone that understands high school level science, the coronavirus will continue to naturally select (recombine & mutate) plus antibodies do not last long, so demand will remain high, even if the virus adapts to its hosts (meaning doesn't kill anymore) clients on the other hand will take very long to adapt. One of Pfizer biggest problem, or the biggest, is they quickly lose their patents. The economic model is imperfect and no reason it will change, nothing PFE can do about it. > Who could have predicted this? BOC stops printing money, Canada GDP "surprises" with a decline *********************** Seven weeks after the central bank tapered down its asset purchase program the GDP numbers show a decline of 0.3%. For reminder the last numbers were +9.1% (after the "covid" -11.3% quarter), +2.2%, +1.4%. -0.3% seems like normal continuation of the trend. Western demographics are terrible and growth is over as some people have predicted. It's ok they can come up with excuses like "covid". We can speculate the central bank might increase it's helicopter program. Who knows, they might have seen the negative numbers coming and perhaps they reduces the money printing to make it look like that's the reason for negative numbers "the economy was not ready bla bla bla". In reality the whole civilization is in a secular bear market that will last anywhere from 30 years to 150. > End of era: UK spy calls Afghanistan events "end of of an era of western liberalism and democracy" *********************** According to a jounalist a UK senior former UK intelligence officer said about Afghanistan: "This marks the end of an era of Western liberalism & democracy that started with the fall of the Berlin Wall. It is a defeat of Western ideology." Spies are conspiracy theorists times 10. They know wht's going on. Other former spies have made similar comments about the fall of the west in the past, mostly russian and including Vladimir Putin, he is not retired but he is a former spy. Big change, big uncertainty (for regular people) = big risk and big profits right? > End of era: Biden announces 'end of era' for US interference abroad. American isolationism continues! *********************** Biden words. Freudian slip? Huh you think governments and lawmakers are aware of their ideoloy being close to crumbling, just like communism in the USSR did, and the leaders knew about it at least 10 years before it happened. The US president said the world may be quieter in the future. Russian foreign minister Lavrov said "Both of them (Biden & Macron), with a gap of just one or two days, announced that it was time to wrap up interference in the internal affairs of other countries with aims to impose Western-style democracy on them." and has called "the moment very interesting". If the US leaves Iran alone, can we expect more competition among Oil producers? Maybe Iran steps in violently and begins a price war to show "hey we are here, we mean business". > End of era: Nasdaq bubble indice inches from surpassing german DAX 30 for the first time in history *********************** All the day traders are sweating, well actually they are not because most day traders are really bad. You can't be that good if you even choose this garbage tier activity. The Dax they love to day trade is not what it used to be. The DAX has been ranging in a tight range for a whole 5 months. This is around the average entire career duration of all these day traders. And it might not be getting looked at by banks etc as much as it used to. So what little self fulfilling prophecy trends it used to have might not come back. But does it matter? 99.9% don't make money anyway, 0.1% underperform the market, and 99% will quit, so does it even matter? They can keep playing with their casino video game, and they probably won't notice if indeed it is over before many years. Who knows how many years. 10? 20? 30? Maybe attention moves to the hysterical Nasdaq indice, of which value is so close to surpassing the DAX. The ratio has never been so high. It's ridiculous to think that California GDP is at 3 trillion so close to Germany's 3.8 trillion. And above UK & France declining 2.6-2.7 GDPs. California has tons of issues and thanks to US isolationism which is a fundamental trend, sitting above who people vote for, big tech will lose its worldwide monopoly. > Holidays are over, price action might get violent next week, or even tomorrow with non farm payrolls *********************** I haven't had any "quick" investments since February which itself followed a boring period with little happening. Nothing below 2 weeks. But in september money managers go back to the office these lazy normie bums. You should not be allowed to participate in an elitist competition if you want a pointless "normal" life. In my short experience September has some violent moves, fast and that go past targets. In french is it called "la rentrée", why don't english have a term? They're going to keep repeating whole sentences each time for when people go back to work in September? Just copy the french word, isn't that what they usually do? Or spanish, what is it they say for "el comienzo del año escolar"? "La reanudación" 🤢? Is this used? French is shorter, use that one. As Deng XiaoGeorge SorosNewton said "a truck something something doesn't stop on it's own". Mutual fund managers, Hedge fund traders, all these type of people, they are not very good at investing, and why should they? Not their job. But they are good at attracting client's money, making "reunions", and following crippling regulations meant to protect brainless fund clients. It's mainly hedge funds, they are the ones focussed on the short term. In these reunions subject such as "Our investment XYZ has appreciated we should take profit in our tax haven subsidy", "We need to hedge our risk by opening more Oil positions", "DUDE THE S&P IS GOING TO THE MOON BUY BUY BUY! SPIEL!" Breakouts and reversals. For the handful of individual investors out there that don't day or "swing" (1-3 days) trade don't end up on the wrong side, don't be slow to react. I'm catching myself rubbing my hands every now and then. Will feel good to have some quick ones for a change (even if they're not that good), can't take the waiting anymore, and hopefully plenty of setups. And please oh please god of markets allow the S&P 500 to break and go vertical. 💰💰💰
by MrRenev
$DIS -- Methinks the Mouseketeers are about to #printI'm too tired to post any clever witticisms but Disney looks primed to run to 185, especially if it quickly turns 180 into support this week. Feels like there's a little bit of pump left in SPY/QQQ (mostly due to to Tech) before big money turns back to pumping IWM (see: SPRT, BBIG...) Anyway, DIS 180c/185c should be fun to play this week (9/17 and 10/15 viable IMO). Quicker fingers can probably flip 200c's as well if things get really bullish. night night kiddos. btw I tried ketamine and my review is: "eh, not for me." bye!
NYSE:DISLong
by psc230
Look for rotation from growth to value in September-OctoberI posted this on August 27, but a moderator blocked because I had a linked to an offsite chart that the mods felt constituted advertising. (Apologies to the commenters whose comments disappeared along with the post.) I kinda wish I had reposted right away, because the post ended up being pretty prescient. (I had predicted that the S&P 500 would pull back to at least 3400 and that investors would begin to rotate to value.) But, I think it's still relevant enough for a repost. I've updated it a little in light of last week's selloff. The S&P 500 has been on a monster run since March, surging to new record highs. That's partly because massive government stimulus produced a rapid economic recovery, with consistent month-over-month economic growth and an extremely high rate of positive economic surprises. It's possible that the economic data will turn more negative in September if Congress doesn't succeed in cutting a new stimulus deal. But so far the economic data still point toward continued recovery in the back half of the year. The ECRI weekly leading index has slowed since June, but it's still trending upward. We had good jobs numbers and good PMI numbers in August. The only really worrying sign was that consumer confidence crashed last month. The effect hasn't yet shown up in any consumer spending data, however. Overall, the economic numbers militate against a broad stock market selloff in the next few months. Having said that, it's important to note two facts. First, September is traditionally the weakest month of the year for stocks. Volumes fall off with the end of the summer earnings season, and in election years there's political risk. In fact, in presidential election years when an incumbent gets ousted, there tend to be steep selloffs from February to mid-March and from September to October. Consistent with that pattern, we saw a February selloff earlier this year and a mega cap selloff in the first week of September, and the incumbent is trailing in the polls by an eight-point spread. Second, growth stocks have pretty stretched valuations right now. That's especially true of the mega cap FAANG+ stocks. Even after last week's selloff, for instance, Microsoft is still trading about 25% above its median forward P/E and 35% above its median forward P/S. Meanwhile, value stocks like Citigroup are trading at a discount of nearly the same magnitude. So while I don't expect a huge, broad correction in the next couple months given the strength of economic data, we might be due for a rotation from growth to value as seasonality puts investors a little more on the defensive. When you drill down into the economic numbers, they certainly support a rotation. Consider this week's releases of August PMI data. The manufacturing sector looked hot, with some of its highest readings in 2-3 years. Also showing strong growth were leisure and entertainment, healthcare, utilities, and financials. Meanwhile, the tech sector is still growing, but its growth slowed in August. The construction sector also shows signs of slowing down, with mortgage applications, real estate transactions, and lumber prices all down this week. Now that Russia has a working Covid-19 vaccine and the US is close to a vaccine as well, the work-from-home bubble may begin to burst. State economies are reopening, a good sign for the brick-and-mortar businesses most hurt by the pandemic; a less-good sign for e-commerce and big tech. On the chart, you can see how the equal weight S&P 500 has been oscillating in a range relative to the cap weighted S&P 500 . In the last three days, it began an upward oscillation. It still has room to run, and I expect a move upward to at least my first target. More likely, this will prove to be an even larger oscillation. I am thinking it runs to Target 2, pulls back to Target 1, and then follows through with a move up to Target 3. In this scenario, I'd look for Target 3 by maybe the end of September. The small cap : S&P 500 ratio tends to oscillate in a range as well, and it too has begun an upward oscillation (albeit with a little less conviction than equal weights). I expect the peak of the upward move in this ratio to coincide with the peak of the upward move in the equal weight : cap weighted S&P 500 ratio. Now, keep in mind that these are ratios. Just because RSP and IWM outperform relative to SPY doesn't mean that they go up in absolute terms. As with the last few days, they may instead sell off, but just fall more slowly than SPY . Personally, though, I'm bullish enough on the overall economic data that I want to maintain some market exposure right now. I'm doing so through equal weight funds and carefully chosen mid-cap value stock picking, particularly in sectors like industrials , financials, and utilities.
Editors' picks
AMEX:RSPLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
21
BUllish Trend XTZ longtermcci + Adx line + fibo Tezos Reaches $25 Million Settlement in Class-Action Lawsuit Over $232M ICO Key Takeaways Tezos has settled a class-action lawsuit and will compensate investors who sold their XTZ and lost money on the investment Tezos's token sale did not constitute an unregistered security offering as far as this lawsuit is concerned This has little bearing on whether the SEC considers Tezos a security, though it has not yet taken action against the Tezos Foundation SHARE THIS ARTICLE
Long
by resagraphic