USDCAD is ready to grab the liquidity at the level 135.30The Canadian dollar strengthened following mixed inflation data in Canada, while weakness in U.S. manufacturing data exerted negative pressure on the dollar. The bullish trend in USD/CAD persists, with resistances at 1.3420 and 1.3350 potentially impeding selling. The Canadian dollar (CAD) gained against many currencies on Tuesday but lost ground against the U.S. dollar (USD), maintaining its position as the top-performing major currency. Despite Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December mostly meeting expectations, the lack of price growth has reduced the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in March. Currently, Canadian money markets see a 34% probability of a rate cut, down from 46% before the inflation release. Overall, the economic landscape is influenced by other factors, such as the annual growth of the Consumer Price Index at 3.4%, compared to the previous period's 3.1%. Annualized residential construction in Canada exceeded expectations, reaching 249.3 thousand for the year through December. Meanwhile, official statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to diminish expectations of rate cuts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasizes that inflation should follow a gradual path toward 2%. Oil markets are still influenced by geopolitical factors, such as Houthi attacks on civilian cargo ships in the Red Sea.
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EURUSD Ready for the big short towards 1.089The EUR/USD experienced a decline after four consecutive days of gains, stabilizing just below 1.1000, while the US Dollar seeks to recover. On Thursday, Eurozone inflation data could disappoint expectations downward, while the US will release the core PCE index and weekly jobless claims. A daily close well above 1.1010 could pave the way for further gains. A decisive break below 1.0960 would indicate further losses, with the next support at 1.0920, near an upward trendline. Key resistance is at 1.1000, while additional recent highs could lead to resistance at 1.1070. The inflation situation in Europe indicates a slowdown, with German and Spanish data falling below expectations. Overall, the positive trend of the ECB may be influenced by additional inflation data. The US economy showed stronger growth in the third quarter than previously estimated, bolstering the Dollar. On Thursday, US data on Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and weekly jobless claims could further influence the Dollar, especially if they highlight further slowing of inflation and the labor marke
USDCAD: How long will the dollar rise last?The USD/CAD pair continues to rise after a strong rebound last week near the crucial 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level around 1.3400. Tuesday marks the third consecutive day of growth. During the Asian session, spot prices reach the highest level since late March, and investors await further strengthening beyond the 1.3700 threshold before placing new bets.
The US dollar (USD) reaches a new 10-month high following the increasing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its hawkish stance, supported by robust macroeconomic data from the United States. Additionally, comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester confirm market expectations that the US central bank will keep interest rates higher for an extended period. This situation drives the yield on the 10-year US government bond to a 16-year peak. Moreover, a generally weak risk tone continues to favor the US dollar as a safe haven and acts as a support for the USD/CAD pair. On the contrary, the Canadian dollar (CAD) is weighed down by growing expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) has finished raising interest rates.
Statistics Canada reported on Friday that Canada's economic growth stalled in July, with the manufacturing sector posting its biggest decline in over two years. This adds to the 0.2% contraction in GDP in June, fueling speculations that the BoC will maintain interest rates despite persistent inflation. Along with further declines in oil prices, this weakens the commodity-linked Canadian dollar and supports the USD/CAD pair.
Oil prices continue to decline for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a three-week low. This decline could be attributed to profit-taking due to concerns that economic headwinds from higher interest rates in the US may reduce fuel demand. However, signs of reduced global supply should limit the downside. In any case, the fundamental outlook favors the US dollar, supporting prospects for further appreciation of the USD/CAD pair. Currently at the H4 level, there is an upward momentum that led to the breakout of two significant previous swing highs at 1.3704 and 1.355. This breakout could suggest potential short retracement opportunities, but personally, I believe the price is attempting to reach highs around 1.38, where we have a resistance zone at the H4 level. It might then undergo a retracement for a retest of the support and resistance zone. I would like to hear your thoughts. Regards from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
USD/JPY What will be the consequences of Evergrande and the USA?The USD/JPY exchange rate is continuing to rise towards the 150.00 mark, approaching new highs of the last year in Asian trading on Monday. The pair is supported by the renewed increase in US Treasury bond yields and accommodating comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). However, Japanese intervention risks in the foreign exchange market are accumulating. The USD/JPY pair experienced a slight sell-off while attempting to surpass the psychological resistance of 150.00 on Thursday. The asset is correcting marginally, following the tracks of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which is experiencing long liquidation after reaching a fresh 10-month high at 106.80. S&P500 futures gained some ground in the London session, indicating an improvement in market participants' risk appetite. US equities closed unchanged on Wednesday due to caution regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate outlook. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is gradually correcting towards around 106.30 after failing to extend its rally. The broader appeal for the US Dollar remains bullish, as the US economy is resilient due to declining inflation, stable employment growth, and robust consumer spending. Unlike other G7 economies struggling to find solid ground due to their inability to cope with the consequences of higher interest rates imposed by central banks, the US economy continues to excel in the labor market, household demand, and inflation. However, its Manufacturing PMI has been consistently contracting for the past ten months. Investors anticipate a recovery in factory activities ahead, as the order book for core goods surprisingly expanded in August. Durable Goods Orders rose by 0.2%, while investors anticipated a decline of 0.5%. In July, orders contracted sharply by 5.6%. The potential intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could strengthen the Japanese Yen. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated on Thursday that he does not rule out any steps to respond if there is excessive foreign exchange volatility. He further added that the authority is closely monitoring foreign exchange movements with a sense of urgency. Additionally, at the 149.90 level, we can observe a breakout of an H4 Swing High and a retest of the trendline that has been present for a month. My goal will be to look for a short position to enter the market during the New York session, considering a possible entry at M15. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
EUR/USD bearish channel in September.EUR/USD slipped below 1.0600 during Friday's American session, retracting part of its daily gains, despite a positive market tone following PCE inflation data. The rebound from the year's lowest daily close improved the Euro's outlook, although the overall trend remains bearish. A potential recovery could reach 1.0700 without altering the bearish trend.
On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators suggest slight upside potential before the Asian session. However, overcoming the strong resistance at 1.0580 is crucial for further gains, initially targeting 1.0600 and then 1.0630. Conversely, consolidation below 1.0550 would increase bearish pressure, exposing support levels at 1.0520 and 1.0495.
Thursday saw a sharp increase in EUR/USD, rebounding from monthly lows and nearing 1.0600, primarily driven by a correction in the US Dollar after an extended bullish period.
Market sentiment weighed on the US Dollar, despite robust US economic data. Second-quarter GDP showed a 2.1% annualized growth, and Initial Jobless Claims were lower than expected at 204,000. The key release of the week is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, which could trigger a USD rally if it indicates inflation increase.
Comments from European Central Bank (ECB) members had minimal impact on the Euro. Market expectations point to no rate hike in October and low probabilities for December, with a strong perception that the ECB has peaked. However, data remains crucial, and recent news from Germany indicates a slight easing of inflation, providing some support for the Euro.
Germany's annual inflation rate dropped from 6.1% to 4.5%. On Friday, Eurostat will release the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, expected at 4.5% (down from 5.2%) for the headline rate and 4.8% (down from 5.3%) for the core rate. At the 1.0530 level, we have a crucial point to consider for a possible price decrease or increase, given the bearish channel since early September. Comment and leave a like; greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
GBP/USD: Will today be the big breakthrough?During the Asian session on Thursday, the GBP/USD pair rose from its recent low near 1.2110, indicating a move away from the lowest point touched since March 17. However, it remained below the mid-1.2100s, suggesting vulnerability to the persistent downtrend observed over the past two months. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart stayed well below 30, emphasizing oversold conditions, with the GBP/USD pair slightly below the lower limit of the descending regression channel, confirming oversold conditions. Potential resistance levels for a technical correction include 1.2200, 1.2240, and 1.2300, while immediate support lies at 1.2130, followed by 1.2100 and 1.2050. The GBP/USD pair had previously surpassed 1.2200 and slid below 1.2150, remaining in oversold conditions, and investors may await a stable improvement in risk sentiment before anticipating a significant recovery. On Tuesday, major Wall Street indexes witnessed a decline of over 1% due to concerns about a US government shutdown. Despite slightly higher US stock index futures, investors may hesitate to bet on a risk rally unless Republicans and Democrats reach an agreement on a bipartisan spending bill before the Sunday deadline. Later, the US Census Bureau will release Durable Goods Orders data for August, with the market expecting a 0.5% decrease. A notable decline could have an initial negative impact on the US dollar. Furthermore, a 5-year US Treasury note auction by the US Department of Treasury is scheduled, and strong demand for bonds could weaken the US dollar. However, attention remains focused on political developments in the US. On the H4 chart, it can be observed that the price has formed a bearish channel supporting the overall trend and that the price during the Asian session has marked a swing low, the second in that zone around 1.2120. From this point, I would expect an upward movement with a structural change, and later I will look for a long entry on M15, perhaps during New York immediately after today's macroeconomic data. Let's see how the price reacts. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like to support our work. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Is USD/JPY heading for a crash?The USD/JPY exchange rate is rising for the third consecutive day, driven by the strength of the US dollar, which has almost reached 106.30 on the DXY index despite a decline in consumer confidence in September. To keep Japanese inflation above 2%, higher wage growth is needed. Investors express concern about the long-term future as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates high. Meanwhile, the US manufacturing sector is in a vulnerable phase, with a weak order book indicating a possible contraction in activity. The Japanese yen struggles to stabilize as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) supports an accommodating monetary policy awaiting moderate wage growth. Japan is at a critical stage regarding boosting consumption and wage growth, with particular attention to exchange rate movements. Let me know your thoughts, happy trading to all from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
EUR/USD The big day of the FED has arrived!On EUR/USD, we can observe a bullish setup with a bullish trendline on H4. The price is approaching a significant demand zone on H4, where it could find support on the trendline and subsequently initiate an upward move. The first target would be the first significant swing high at 1.0716 and then the H4 supply zone at 1.0740. It's worth noting that during the Asian session, the price recorded a significant swing low at 1.0678, further signaling the possibility of an upward push in the market today. Let me know what you think. Leave a comment and a like to support our work. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
EURGBP Long trade ICT + FVG + LONDON!Good morning, everyone. On EUR/GBP, I entered a long position following an ICT FVG + London Kill Zone strategy. I entered the market at the London open, and the price seems to have reacted positively, already showing a +0.5% gain. Therefore, I will move the stop loss from -1% to -0.5%, halving the risk of this trade! Specifically, I entered the market after the 9:00 candle reached the 50% Fibonacci level of the FVG zone. Let me know what you think and what you would improve about this strategy. Happy trading, everyone.
XAUUSD Buy zone after 3 Bos!On the dollar, we have a bullish setup with the price breaking upwards past three swing highs, creating a very significant demand zone. In fact, between the levels 1924 and 1914, we have the last bearish candle before the upward movement. This means that I will be looking to initiate a buy right within that zone. Naturally, once the price retraces to that area, I will patiently wait for a bullish m15/h1 setup to form, allowing the price to confirm my setup!
GBPJPY Long structure with Entry Box!On GBP/JPY, we have a bullish structure forming after the market experienced a pullback in the H4 timeframe. In fact, I highlighted a bullish candlestick pattern following the market retracement. In that zone, I will go and search for a structural change on the M15/H1 timeframe to confirm my long-term view. Subsequently, I will enter the market with the target set at the first swing high at the level of 187Y. My stop loss will be positioned 5 pips below the lower side of the mentioned zone. Please leave a like and comment in support of our work. Regards, Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
GBPCHF Liquidity zone with ICT Trade!On GBP/CHF, we have a long setup with a dominating trendline in the market, featuring a double liquidity grab followed by a touch and go. Currently, I'm still waiting for the third touch and go, but I wanted to try this long entry with a 0.5% risk and a 1:1.5 risk-reward ratio. Since the market might hold surprises during the Asian session and considering tomorrow morning we'll have significant macro data regarding the Euro and Sterling, I won't be trading during the London session. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to everyone!
S&P 500 ICT Setup with double entries!On the S&P 500, we have a bullish setup after the price during the London session broke a H4 swing high at the level of 4383. By breaking the market structure, the price has marked a cluster of orders, a demand zone at the level of 4366-4369 where the price could retrace and where a long position could be considered. Furthermore, the price might extend its move up to the level of 4410 without encountering our demand zone. This is because at the level of 4410, we have a supply zone between H4, H1, and M15 timeframes. This is an area where short positions with a target of 4100 could be contemplated. Let me know your thoughts. Happy trading to all!
GBPCHF Long structure with entry!On GBP/CHF, I'm considering a long entry. Currently, we have a neutral structure, slightly more long than short. I've highlighted a highly reactive reversal zone where the price has already shown strong responsiveness at the 1.1115 level. At the moment, there are no confirmations for a long position, but I'm mainly waiting for an H1 close within the area and then a reversal with a reaction above the POC (Point of Control). Additionally, there's a potential short setup if the price gives us similar confirmations, but at the 1.1150 level where we have a demand area with M15-H1 zones and a supply zone with a double touch of the bearish trendline. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like to support the hard work. Happy trading to all.
AUD/JPY Bearish structure with entry point!Good afternoon traders,
I was examining the AUD/JPY exchange rate ahead of the USD data, and I noticed that a bearish pattern has formed with a very interesting entry point. In fact, we have a reversal point within a supply zone supported by volumes and an impressive 15-minute chart at the level of 94.47. In summary, all the elements are in place to consider a short position in case of a bounce in that area. Naturally, I will wait for the data before making an entry since we never know what volatility might impact the market. Let me know what you think, leave comments, and give a like. Happy trading to all.
GBP/CHF SHORT SETUP AFTER BOE NEWS I expect a strong Swiss Franc (CHF) against the British Pound (GBP) following recent events that have further weakened the US Dollar (USD). I anticipate a retracement to the 1.1130 level, where we have a Fibonacci retracement, and within that area, I will seek additional confirmation to enter a short position.
Furthermore, after the interest rate hike in the UK and statements from the Bank of England's President, we have an additional motivational factor to short the British Pound (GBP). Please let me know your thoughts on this analysis. Happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
GBP/USD SHORT TRADE AFTER THREE H1 RE-TESTI took a position in the GBP/USD market after noticing a confirmed downside breakout below the Point of Control (PoC) followed by 3 re-tests this morning. The price closed below the level of 1.2854, and I decided to enter a short position (sell) as I believed there were good chances for the price to continue going down.
My objective (target) was to capitalize on further downside movements and profit from the decrease in the GBP/USD exchange rate. I made the trade based on what was highlighted on the chart, which indicated promising opportunities for a short trade.
USD/JPY LONG TRADE WAITING NFPOn USD/JPY, we have a bullish setup following the breakout of the trendline at the level of 140.80. At that level, I have marked a potential entry point corresponding to the retest of the trendline, a demand zone, and an FVG (I'm not sure about the meaning of "FVG" in this context). Therefore, the objective is a long trade with a target at the level of 145, as we have an area with low trading volumes, and the price could rise rapidly, especially considering the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
CHF/JPY SHORT SETUP ON H1 - LONG TRADEOn CHF/JPY, we have a bearish setup on the H4 timeframe, with the price currently at 162.16 and potentially retracing to 160.40 before resuming upward movement to retest the trendline. Moreover, at that point, we have a FVG, which indicates a high probability of reversal. Let me know what you think. Have a great Trading week, everyone, from Nicola, the CEO of FOREX48 Trading Academy.
CAD/CHF WAITING FOR SHORT TRADEOn CAD/CHF, we have a bearish setup: there's a trendline supporting the price decline. The price at the level of 0.6540 has broken the low of July 21st, and what I expect is a retest of the break, and if there are operational confirmations, one could consider opening a short position. Personally, I don't have a strategic operation in this exchange. What I see is a truly strong Swiss franc in the last month, with a weak Canadian dollar, which is further amplified by a weak US dollar. This morning, the price broke another demand zone, supporting a bearish view. Tonight, we have the Fed rates, so keep an eye out for potential volatility. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
USD/JPY SHORT SETUP H1 BEFORE FED RATESOn USD/JPY, we have a bearish setup with a trendline holding from the level 141.90. Currently, the price is at 140.70, where it could break the previous minimum before a re-test. If the re-test is confirmed properly, it could give us a clear signal for a short trade with a target at 139.90. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
XAU/USD LONG TRADE BEFORE FED RATES
On this trade, we have a bullish setup after the price broke a bullish trendline and bounced off the intersection of two trendlines. I positioned myself long exactly after an H1 confirmation at the 1955 level. I've set the target around 1990, where we have a FVG (Failed V-shaped pattern), which indicates a possible zone for a short trade in case there are appropriate confirmations. Leave a like and let me know your thoughts. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.