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EURUSD Bull Flag Set-UpEURUSD Trading the Bull Flag Formation A small bull flag looks to be in the early stages of formation. With DXY still under pressure and expected to fall away a further 2.5% to 88 over the coming weeks EUR has further upside in store. Can buy the dip back to the lower parallel of the flag - if EUR is to remain very positive there will only be 2 strikes on the lower parallel of the flag before it rallies up through the upper parallel to challenge 1.2515-1.2566 range where it will become vulnerable once more. Buy the dip to the lower parallel of the flag at 1.2092 with stop below 1.2050. Add on the break above the upper parallel of the flag and finally reverse from 1.2520 with stop above 1.2587
Long
by sumastardon
Litecoin: LTCUSD Next Long Set-up approachingLitecoin: LTCUSD 2 buy points: 1. On test of 240 with stops at least 5 lower, under the dynamic support line. 2. Add On a break of the dynamic above - need to see some volume pick up with the latter and a decent rally in first hour after it happens...if we see this it should pick up momentum as it rises and should then hit 283-285 before it meets profit takers again. Join them, or stay long looking for a staged rally to 310, 325 , 347 and eventually 375 again.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
1
BCHUSD Flag Formation: Next long set-up on breakBCHUSD Update What a difference a week makes. Within hours of the last comment BCH had fallen away to a low at 1631, 7 points lower than the perfect entry point at 1638, before ripping 300% higher in 6 days flat. Facebook eat your heart out. Now it's in the process of making a flag formation which will stay good so long as the rising dynamic from the beginning of the move holds up price on all tests. A break above the upper parallel that's containing this downwave will be worth following for another retest of the highs... And on the flip side of this particular coin, if that dynamic from the 'lows' at 1766 gets broken at any point now it will then fall away further down the same parallel to 2420 where it should bounce once more.Although it looks more likely to break up rather than down from here, we don't really have to second guess this right now. The chart will tell us and we can follow.
BLong
by sumastardon
2
GBPUSD: Flag formation signals more GBP strength in offingGBPUSD Another Dog that hasn't Barked Today's price action shows big spikes either side of current price, denoting uncertainty on both sides of this fight. But GBP has stood strong as the Dollar surges...what is it likely to do when the Dollar stops? Sterling has spent all year defying the bears. By the look of the flag now forming that situation looks unlikely to change. Two strikes (another retest is fine if it happens soon) means that so long as the lower parallel continues to hold up today in the face of DXY strength GBP is a still a buy at these lower levels with stops below the parallel for small loss if wrong here. And if so, and the lower parallel of the flag does give way GBP will likely fall away to 1.3237-1.3223 and then bounce from there. As things stand though, GBP is showing underlying strength despite current weakness - and that will remain the case so long as the flag formation remains good. Ultimately GBP should hit 1.38 and above - about 500 pips upside and 30 or so down
Long
by sumastardon
Gold XAUUSD and Dollar Index DXY UpdateGOLD and DXY Gold and Dollar Index Update DXY did come off from where it was meant to last week but has put up more than just a fight so far in the 92.74-92.50 range. The fight back was to be expected, but it's doing better than envisaged so far here - and these conclicting signals urge caution now ...no interest in getting involved in a battle of whipsaw here but will look to back the winner again here when one emerges...DXY has gapped up today, double bottomed and left a pin bar lying around in the space between the two blue lines of fixed support shown on chart...bullish signals. But it's still trapped within the parallels which are trying to force price lower. Something has to give here soon. ...A break above the upper parallel would be the next bullish signal from DXY - look to get long DXY on the next retest of the parallel from above, once broken to upside, and get long USDEUR and short Gold on this development too. On downside DXY has to stay under the upper parallel for the bears to keep control from here - then they have to force DXY down to fill the gap today at 92.89 and then push it below 92.55 again for DXY to turn negative again from here. As it stands the bears are beginning to lose this battle, not enough fire-power to force DXY lower from here by the look of the chart. Early hours of this battle, still, but increasingly the bulls are beginning to wrest back control here. Confimation will come when the upper parallel is broken and survives the next retest. At that point we look to short gold (if signals there are not already given) and get long USDEUR.
TVC:DXY
by sumastardon
USDTRY USD Turkish Lira Short set-up with big potentialUSDTRY US Dollar Turkish Lira This is striking impulse wave: and when it breaks down it's a fabulous short Cannot short this whilst within the power of this massive impulse wave. But once it falls out of the parallel it becomes a massive short - once broken, look for any retest of the parallel from the underside once broken as a second shorting opportunity with stops above the parallel. This break down could be imminent...worth watching this one. It could come all the way back down to the longer term trend line, given enough time. It will likely form a trend as it does so...draw in the parallels as it emerges and stay short whilst it's trapped within them. Good one, looks like, even if a little exotic. A trend is a trend, wherever it originates!
Short
by sumastardon
1
Dollar Index: DXY Update and Key levels for next breakDollar Index: DXY So far DXY is displaying precisely the kind of technical price action you'd expect of something in the process of breaking down lower...the tiny continuation pattern with a bearish upwards slope, every move contained within the parallels that control this inverted flag formation. The dollar will try to rally from the lower parallel of the flag so we need to step off the gas around now if shorting USD across the pairs. Contrarians may look to go long USD again here but be careful if you do...at some point soon DXY is going to fail, breaking below the lower parallel - the point to go aggressively short USD again and to go long Gold once more, looking for 92.62 on DXY and 1305 on Gold.
TVC:DXYShort
by sumastardon
Gold:XAUUSD Playing the game of push/pull with DXY Gold: XAUUSD How DXY is the gold trader's best friend right now So far gold has behaved in the bear-mangling mode expected of it since the dollar broke down below key support on DXY at 94.26 (right hand chart) but it wasn't too smart to let it go again at 1290. That rally on Friday was vicious for bears - the shape of price action as gold turned resistance at 1281 into support shows the market adjusting before gold powers 16 points north, a volte-face - which you would have been expecting if you've been experienced enough, wise enough to run the two charts in tandem. If you don't you're dealing with a blindfold over one eye... The pin bars on the one hour chart here show strong rejection at 1296.78 down to current levels at 1293 and a streak of uncontested green...very rare for a space like that to remain uncontested and it should flip back to 1288, and potentially to 1284 before it rallies again. On the other side of the street, we can see that DXY is flipping in a range beween 93.99 (the high for the week was exactly 93.99 as forecast, giving a precise point at which to sell gold - with stops only triggered in event that DXY breaks above 94 and holds, in which case DXY is going up and Gold is going back down. Just the best duo/tandem trade there is in almost any market anywhere. Use it or lose it. Probably the best companion a gold trader can ever have. DXY: Dollar index Through all the noise of currency pairs and most commodity markets there is a still, small, much neglected voice that can tell usually show you the bigger picture/helicopter view of all that close combat fighting going on below. Not always, but usually. DXY, so far since the breakdown at 94.26, has been very helpful. It's flipping between 94 key resistance and 93.50 key near term support and this is what's causing such grief and whipsaw in the price of gold. Right now it's giving mixed near term signals... believe it will break lower still eventually, but the chart is not confirming that here....it's just double bottomed at 93.50...was Ok to bounce here for sure but that was quite a big bounce - pins at top and botttom of move...just near term a little confusing, at least to this writer anyway. But gold is toppy near term and DXY is showing a double bottom near term. If it can rally from here then it should push back up to the 93.99 where it should meet profit takers. (Do same with gold shorts at that point). And only if DXY can then manage to break above 94 and hold is the tide turning back in favour of Dollar, at which point we look to short gold again. And on the other side, if at any point DXY breaks 93.50 it enters a zone of uncertainty/whipsaw between 93.50 and 93.35 where positions can sudddenly reverse - like quicksand on a map this zone cannot be trusted - a zone to avoid if possible. However, if at any point DXY is driven below 93.5 for more than 2 hours it will become llikely that support is eroding and it should start to fall away quite hard to 92.80-92.62 - and thereby triggering aggressive gold longs.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by sumastardon
3
Bitcoin: BTCUST Potential break to upside developingBitcoin: BTCUSD Almost BS free version The way this is behaving now, sliding down the upper parallel of the continuation pattern is still more bullish than bearish, though doesn't look it, granted...it can spend a while yet grinding lower but so long as it finds support from 6450 pivot this is, surprisingly, looking like it might well make a break to the upside yet. This will confound bears, obviously, and stops will start flying, again. That''s why we're flat watching this stooge around drifting down the upper little parallel. If it dips down to 6450 it's a speccy buy for day-traders with a stop tight under at 6400. But it still needs to break above the stonger potential dynamic resistance line at 6550 and then hold on retest (as laboriously explained above and or in previous comments for other traders to consider going long again. this process requires the patience of a saint on a fishing expedition. If you got it, stay with it a while. It could just pay off. And, like fishing, we may also catch nothing. Downside is trickier to judge right now unless day-trading between the lines - don't think it's safe to short again unless 6300 gives way. and at moment the pattern is not saying bearish, just boring . Be Lucky! patient too And maybe drop the the stop to under 6400 by 10 points if going long from here. riskier than waiting for break and confirming signal at 6550 but higher reward.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
2
BITCOIN: BTCUSD Short set-up hereBitcoin: BTCUSD For what it's worth right now, and looking at the bigger picture and pattern developing in first moment of calm since rising from bed, believe that Bitcoin is most likely to bottom at 5098 - a long way down from here - that view will only change if Bitcoin continues to hold up around current values and then turns up and breaks through parallel as described earlier...unless and until we see that Bitcoin is still very vulnerable - don't look to play this long unless 6515 is broken on upside - look for shirting opportunities and use stops to stay safe....can you see the stop? is it close by ? then trade for small loss if wrong.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
3
BCH/DOLLAR: BCHUSD 20% Short set-up when Bitcoin turns back upBCH/DOLLAR BCHUSD Short Set-up Some interesting action by this crypto pair. Take a look on the 15 minute chart at the continuation patterns over just the last couple of days, just perfect, with great entry points. If you traded this since yesterday, so far so good. But when Bitcoin bottoms it will obviously snap back, giving bears a chance to hit it ...so this will be a good short to pair with Bitcoin BTCUSD on the buy side, when the turn comes...(see Bitcoin comments). Right now BCH is just making the beginnings of another continuation pattern as Bitcoin sticks around 6305-6220 on downside, so this is not tradeable yet - but when Bitcoin finally wriggles free of the central parallel and then breaks the last parallel on the upside, then will be the time to short BCH/Bitcoin and BCHUSD. The space down to 1210 is full of whip right now and can easily break higher still if Bitcoin breaks lower still, as it's still quite likely to, so far, by look of Bitcoin chart. But it doesn't have to, unfortunately. So: If bitcoin breaks lower from 6000-5990 this will go higher still. And conversely, if Bitcoin finds a bottom at 6220, as it has done so far, this will crash back to 976 at least with easiest part of the trade being from 1200 down to 995 - a nice 20% short...worth watching this/setting alert for any break of 1210 , (confirmed by Bitcoin double bottoming at 6220 and turning back up) so you're ready...could be a good one.
BShort
by sumastardon
S&P 500 Short set-up from hereS&P 500 Index SPX500 The last short got stopped out at even - right idea, wrong double top. Now it's fallen below the parallel that's been guiding this impulse wave since summer lows...it's trying to make a feeble counter-rally back to kiss the underside of the lower parallel before it falls away again to 2566-2564 range where it should make a rally attempt to form the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern now forming here. Sell from 2580 or as close to as possible with stop above 2583 for 3 point loss if wrong...once 2564 breaks after a first bounce from there of up to 11 points back to 2573-2577 range it should fall again at least back to 2564 and then when that fails to 2541. Two short trades here worth following
FX:SPX500Short
by sumastardon
Brent Crude Oil: UKOIL Still not too late to short BrentBrent Crude Oil UKOIL Update Had to update this position via original comment whilst embargo was still on, repeated here (sic): Hva etaken a short position with tight stop at 64.72 but ready to reverse, as above. High so far 64.62 - close but not hit yet. That has proved to be the high so far as the Opec meeting gathered. Still don't think it's too late here to short. It should come off all the way down to the lower parallel at around the 60 mark for 370 pips from here, but the first downside target is 61.67, still good for 200 pips here, give or take. Am lowering the stop now to 64.30 to get out with about 15 pips profit if it goes wrong from here. But sell just before the meeting worked very well last time, so hope we see the same kind of result this time too.
FX:UKOILShort
by sumastardon
5
Ibex Index: looking to go long again here for 800 points upside IBEX Index: IBEX 35 Update After getting long on the break above 10470 we got stopped out at 10525 for a small 55 point profit... Now this index has come back down to the breakout zone once more for what should be one last kiss before the rally recommences. It should find support between current values at 10362 and about 55 points lower, at 10310 at lowest... (same amount as recent win on this index) off the upper parallel. So am looking to go long again from the 10362-10310 range with a stop just under 10300, looking for a move back up to the highs at 11168 (about 800 points) between now and early spring 2018. So about 60 points downside risk and 800 points upside if it works out...
TVC:IBEX35Long
by sumastardon
GOLD: XAUUSD Intermediate Double bottom established- long set-upGOLD: XAUUSD Been stooging around waiting for gold to come up to 1281-1283 range before shorting it - it came within 25 pips or so below here but never struck the sell zone before it fell away...now it's approaching the sell zone again but recent price action, helped by the Fed decision to hold off on another rate rise until December means that a short here is no longer nearly so enticing from that 1281-3 range. It's broken through the upper parallel and made a higher intermediate high...bullish, not bearish price action, obviously. Obvious enough to require a change of tack... So, the past week's price action has changed the technical picture from bearish to bullish and whilst it can still fail one last time at the original 1281-3 sell zone, granted, it won't come back very far by look of chart. Am more interested now in buying at 1274ish with a stop 3 dollars lower, or, if that doesn't happen, once 1283 is cleared by 50 pips or so on upside with a stop a couple or 3 dollars lower, ideally just under 1281. Minimum upside target at 1303 if triggered.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by sumastardon
USDJPY: Time to close any last longs and and reverse positionsUSDJPY The breakout to the upside never materialised. The upside target for USD longs here was at the 114.30-114.50 range. Frustratingly the high on Thursday was 2 pips shy of the lower end at 114.30. Close, but no cigar. Hope you were still able to get out close to the top though. We still need to see a break above 114.55 to go long USD again, but yesterday's news from the Fed isn't going to give it the impetus by look of price action. As this is written another near term top is being formed on this pair, so am going to risk some of yesterday's profits on this pair on a short from 114.01 current levels with a stop 25 pips away and see how it goes.
Short
by sumastardon
GBPUSD Medium Term Swing set-upsGBPUSD Near Term - and Medium Term swing set-up Maybe about to get stopped out of the Sterling short trade here for a 10 pip loss (stop at 1.337) If so, it's a small loss at least - but need to cover the implications from here, if struck ... Sterling would then be likely to rally further by about 90 pips to 1.3475 - but intend to close down any near term longs there as it has become such a key area of interest, with fixed/static resistance from the summer period meeting dynamic/moving resistance from the highs - therefore a likely point of maximum impact/interest if it gets struck over the next day or two... So in the event that 1.3480 is broken on the upside by more than 15 pips (and any subsequent pull-back is then supported around the 1.3470 mark) Sterling would be making quite a big statement: 3 years and 3 months of downtrend is finally at an end, bringing more swing traders into the market...so will go long again at this point if we happen to see that little pull-back, (with stop about 20 pips below here at 1.3448 for small loss if wrong) looking for 1.363 initially, then a move up to test the upper parallel, followed by further strength to 1.4062. So 590 pips potential reward for 20-30 pips or so risk, if struck. DOWNSIDE for Sterling So if the short from 1.327 (stop at 1.337/8) gets taken out that's 10/11 pips blown - and if it doesn't will be looking to let it run a little, but only back to 1.3143 ish for 130 pips or so profit. No way can swing traders turn aggressively bearish of Sterling again unless and until it breaks below 1.3029, which would create a 250 pip downside target at 1.2777.
Short
by sumastardon
DXY: Dollar has to break above 94.75 to trigger next longDXY: Dollar Index Update Been waiting for DXY to come back to 94.28 at least, if not to 93.99 (and potentially a spike to an extreme low off the lower trend line at worst) before the Dollar begins its next surge higher... But it's putting up a fight at 94.45 in London today. It can still come off from around 94.70 mark though so getting the turn here is tricky...now need to see a break above 94.70 by 5 pips to get long for move up to 96 initially, and much higher still over the medium term. In adsence of such price action it's a waiting game a little longer, looking for a retest of 94.28 or ideally 93.99 before looking to go long again.
TVC:DXYLong
by sumastardon