Set-ups
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Saturday Trade Set-Ups for the Aficionado
Bitcoin Saturday Trade Set-Ups for the Aficionado
BTCUSDT
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Saturday Trades for Die-Hards
A slow overnight session has given way to a slow start to Saturday trading.
Bitcoin has held up though and if still long here is about 80 points up on the last entry at 7375.
Looks like we're stuck with scalping still for now looking at the lack of interest in Europe this morning. The tight range and lack of volume suggests we're going to have to be happy enough with 90 to 200 point scalps at best this weekend.
Am raising the stop to 7449 for now on rest of this long position and looking for some interest to pick up later when US opens.
If it breaks the stop in the meantime will be looking to buy again off the dynamic with stop about 20 lower.
Alternatively can raise the stop to 7409 for smaller profit if hit and run it, looking for 7530-7540 initially and then 7652 once 7540 can be broken above.
Got two thirds of this long left.
Maybe will do one third and one third as above...in doubt so doing both is easiest way to handle this predicament for now.
On the downside Bitcoin has to break below 7410 on Tether feed to turn negative again - can reverse short from this point if looking to trade the next move, which should bring it down to 7360 initially where it will likely bounce again unless we see some decent volume building fast behind it (less likely on a weekend but still possible if whales are around - where are they all? They used come out to feed on weekends once upon a time. Been a long time.)
After bouncing again at 7360 back towards the underside of the dynamic at best it should then fall back to 7300-7280 at least and if not to 7211. Depends on volumes really.
This pattern looks to be just another continuation pattern within the overall downtrend so far. Although it's near term mildly positive the chart is still saying it has to come lower yet before we can call a real bottom.
Any break below 7211 offers a bigger short potential and can be followed back to 6815-6743.
20:37 Bst 15:37 Est Friday
Bitcoin Bitmex Update.
There was no volume on the break higher but it was still worth following for 100 -140 points from 7400 as it broke the upper dynamic.
Now it's come back to test the same dynamic from above. Should hold here and gives a chance to get long at low risk because the stop is close by.
It may not work. But the loss is small if so.
Stops below 7355 - can put an order in at 7375 - loss 20 .
For Bitcoin updates in real-time please check the link, top-left of main page. Aficionados only ; )
And if you find these updates interesting from time to time please hit that button. It's the only way there is of knowing if it's worth carrying on updating via Tv. Thanks
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups from HereBitcoin Bitmex Chart Update XBT
After 36 hours of consolidation Bitcoin has held above the key 7265 level after a spike low at 7243 on this feed and since
then has survived a couple more retests. It's not ready to fall away yet therefore.
Looks as if it will make another attempt to touch 7615 and maybe spike into the uppermost parallel again as yesterday -
this would take it to the the next line of resistance at 7675 at best before it comes off again - unless we see volume rising
fast again at that point.
On Bitmex feed it's still effectively stuck in the range bounded by three lines of important resistance at 7615 and 7683 and
7741 and one line of support at 7265, which now needs extending to cover the spike low.
Whilst inside the range it looks like scalping opportunities at best for now.
Buy on dips towards the 7355 nearest support line with stops just under 7350 looks to be the best option for those looking
to trade this inside the range from here.
For others, an eventual break either side of the range should be worth following more aggressively.
Has to break above 7750 on high volume to follow long looking for 8600.
And on the downside has to break below 7240 on rising volumes for next good shorting opportunity, looking for a
retest if 6819-6792 range where it should bounce again if tested.
But until then it looks like scalping opportunities inside the range.
For more active traders: For Bitcoin updates in real-time please see link at top left of main page
For Continuity: 18th July - Bitcoin Chart Updates
(For all updates since last Bitcoin Update on Tv a month ago can be checked via link at top left of main page)
This is a long update - you can skip most of the BS below by scrolling down to the final paragraph.
We're at a tricky point, or getting very close to it now. So have tried to give reasoning as best as possible below.
Futures
Bitcoin held up just above the 7266 support/stop line and then pushed nearly 300 points higher still to a 7560 high overnight before falling away again.
The upside target on this feed remains the 7615-7756 range but must admit to not really liking the pattern it's making right now however - am thinking of raising the stop to 7419 - which may well get taken. Otherwise stop has to remain under the 7266 line here, as overnight.
Looking for clues to the next move from here.
It looks like a grind higher so far, rather than another big volume green candle about to come. Keeping an eye on the volume itself will help to confirm or negate this.
Without it Bitcoin still stands a chance of spiking to the 7615 line in the nearterm but is likely to come off again if it makes it there - unless volume is rising very fast underneath it.
So upside is 180 or so points probably in the near term and downside is 180 or so to 7266.
So as risk/reward ratio is now only 'evens' either side, staying with this long is slowly turning into an act of bravery and defiance over mere calculation at this point in the game.
So caution is warranted again here.
To add to overhead resistance there's a spooky set of upper parallels forming at the highs overnight.
Was thinking these were a case of pareidolia - the invisible spectre that sits at all TA's tables alongside them.
It's bad enough to see things that aren't really there without spreading them around others. It's like spreading a virus ! Who needs it?
(Unless it's a pattern spotted that warrants further investigation via the chat room - which is what we're all here for in the end, presumably.)
Anyway, these two upper parallels do look as if they are in play now and are holding back rally attempts quite effectively so far.
The volume on Tether is showing roughly half the volume bar to left of chart, the start of the last decent counter rally.
It implies that the rally is running out of upside interest from here.
For more please check the link
UK100: FTSE 100 Index Trade Set-Ups from Here31st May FTSE 100 Index Update UK100
FTSE bounced away nicely off the support zone at 7600-7580
and really we should have reversed back long off 7600 with
stops below 7580. My bad here.
But it's beginning to struggle and if you were slick enough to
reverse long again without prompting the long stop needs
raising to just under 7680 here.
Any failure to hold this level will open the door to another
short back to 7600-7580 range which must hold up when
retested if this index to avoid a more protracted fall over the
summer months back to the 7340-7294 range.
Returning to the upside in the very near term FTSE is on a
knife-edge and trying hard to form a little bull flag using the
support line at 7685 as the base - once 7680 fails the flag fails
and we get a short opportunity from there, as above.
But there is also a chance that the flag will succeed at this
point but it will need to push above 7715 here to follow long
with stops below 7680 looking for 7745 minimum and 7792 at
a likely maximum before it falls away again.
For real-time updates for more active traders of the major markets (outside of Crypto) please see the link at top left of main page
UK100: FTSE 100 Index Trade Set-Ups For Week AheadFTSE 100 Index UK100
Since making a seasonal high on 22nd May FTSE has fallen away down a narrow impulse
wave and chanelled down the smaller falling pair of parallels from the new high.
Whist constrained within the channel FTSE remains vulnerable to further selling pressure
back to the first minor support line at 7691. Failure to hold here will trigger a shorting
opportuninty back to the 7600-75832 range where it should attempt to bounce away to
the upside again. Looking beyond that bounce, should 7580 fail further out in time FTSE
will likely fall away much further over the summer, to a new downside target in the
7335-7294 range.
Returning to the upside FTSE has to break back above the upper parallel carrying the
current down-wave for the bears to back off again now - it can do this, but only if 7691
holds up on London open. This level looks key to the near term.
It must hold here and bounce up through the upper falling parallel and then hold up on
the restest once it is broken above - if we see this kind of price action soon after the
open can look to get long with stops under the 7690 level, but still ready to reverse
again short if the stop is broken by 10 or more points.
DAX Index:GER30 Topping Formation - Care Needed HereDax Index DAX Topping Formation Short Set-Ups
If you trade Bitcoin you will be familiar with this pattern for sure.
Having broken below the longer term lower parallel the Dax has fallen away to structure lows to left of price, dropped a
little lower to take out the last swing long stops - and then promptly swung back higher again. In doing so it's tracking up
a smaller pair of parallels back towards the larger parallel above it. It is going to have an insumountable problem breaking
above either of the parallels now above it.
In addition to showing topping activity now we have a seasonal pull working in opposition to price. 'Sell in May and go away,
come back on St Leger day' is an old stock market adage for a reason.
Up to 2015, in the 65 years since 1950, the US stock market has returned just 0.3pc on average between May and October.
That compares with a 7.5pc average return from November to April. This significant difference is the justification for the
age-old adage. St Leger is the day in September when the horse race of that name is run. It is the traditional end of the
season, short-hand for being out of the market during the less profitable summer months and fully invested in the winter.
This pattern of seasonality is very much present but not apparent every single year. That would be too much to expect.
Nevertheless, it's very much there, even if it does hide sometimes inside the noise.
Long story short, this index is vulnerable again now. It's testing the junction between fixed and dynamic support lines
at 12789 now. Failure to hold here should tip it back into bear hands again and force it lower to 12599 to begin with where
it should try to bounce away again - any failure to do so will trigger another wave of selling back to 12323. Both these breaks
should be worth shorting when they come. Any break below any fixed line of support by more than 25 points should lead
to a near term test of the next support line. The biggest of these moves lower is the last, from 12300 down to 11856-11744.
On the upside this index has to hold up at 12789 now for the bulls to stay in control from here. It can do this one last time
and rally from here right back to the highs and just take the stops above out, before falling away again. This is effectively
inverse price action to the action we saw at the last swing lows of March. But that is a best case scenario.
At best this is a speculative buy at 12827 because the stop is so close by, just under 12800 for 30 or so loss if wrong here.
But be ready to short on first break below 12800 with stops 60 or more above.
The up-trend looks to be waning and running out of upside momentum now.
Be ready for the break lower, maybe set an alert, and act on it. It could be a good trade - if we don't get stopped out first...
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups from HereBTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups from Here
The pattern Bitcoin is currently making is treacherous and too
unclear to contemplate a trade at this point.
It looks and feels more manipulated right now than ever - as if
price is being left to run a little higher to stop hunt weak
bears before it gets reeled back in again. It should only get as
far as the upper parallel at around 7578 now at best on
Bitfinex before it falls away again.
To break the downtrend Bitcoin has to find buyers enough to
push back above the uppermost parallel and to hold it on the
retest. It looks unlikely now, but if we see it happen later on
it should be worth following for a potential weekend rally.
But in its absence Bitcoin remains stuck in a down-trend and
the dearth of support coming from US as it opens means it
should fall away again quite soon now from the 7525-7578
range. But even the downside is uncertain at present and it
could be that Bitcoin tries to establish a double bottom
around the 7318-7263 range when it does come off again.
Be careful with the short at this point. Needs volume spike to
arrive to push it lower still from there. If it comes and 7250
gives way it's good to follow short again or add to positions
looking for 7162 in near term and further out a decline in
stages back to 6615-6517 range.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups TodayBTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups for Today
After breaking below the lower parallel of the continuation pattern which had been created over the weekend Bitcoin
began to fall away - but the fall when it came overnight was grudging and lacked fluidity or downside momentum. It's
therefore hard to trust at the moment and until we get better clarity am forced to close out short at current levels and
move to sidelines awaiting a clearer signal for next trade from here.
Whilst trapped within the falling parallels Bitcoin is still
negative but once again the fall lacks any traction and cannot be trusted enough to stay short of it right now.
Any failure to hold 8250 on Coinbase should tip it back into bear hands again and force it lower to the 8148 line. But it
can rally back to the 8284 line first so am closing out. A break below here is then needed to trigger the next short of just
over 200 points back to 7935.
The fall from the weekend highs has been corrective so far. We need to see the upper falling parallel of the pattern
broken on the upside - and for it to hold up on the retest once broken above - to switch back to longs again from this point.
The market is hard to play right now. It needs the patience of
a saint once more to negotiate this minefield. The map says beware for the time being.
Better to keep powder dry if possible for now - the market feels like it's being manipulated on thin volumes, trying to
trap traders on the wrong side. It just feels a little weird right now. Weird enough to stand back awhile until the picture
clarifies more as above.
BTCUSD Saturday Trade Set-UpsBitcoin Weekend Trade Set-Ups
It looks like we should get an interesting trade coming up here
quite soon.
Failure to hold on to 8300 will most likely force it back to the
lower parallel of the continuation pattern shown at the
bottom of this decline.
On the downside we need to see a break below the lower
small rising parallel and the support line 8230 to trigger the
next short back to 7946 and potentially lower still, to
7817-7800 range. The next important support below here lies
at 7584.
And on the upside, it's had 4 waves up - it should struggle at
the big dynamic again at around 8368 on Coinbase now.
Obviously any break above the uppermost falling medium
term dynamic would be very bullish- and we will have to
follow it long if we see it happen - again it will need a volume
burst to achieve this, as usual.
It is possible. But the truth is it should come off. it's Bitcoin.
If looking to trade this today try to keep an open mind for the next hour or two and follow the break when it eventually comes, watching for a volume spike behind it to confirm.
BTCUSD Bitcoin: Sunday Trade Set-UpsBitcoin Sunday Trade Set-Ups
A fairly active overnight session has seen Bitcoin move up to
highs around midnight gmt, then down for 6 hours to 06:00gmt
and 01:00est and then back up again, forming a fairly
sketchy triangle as it moves through time.
The last move down (green arrow) was corrective in pattern
with 4 small waves down before it hit the lower dynamic of
the triangle before rallying again. This move down from the
most recent peak at the 8486 line is 2 tiny waves down so far.
Interest is so low now that it's basically flat-lining.
There is no trade until we see a break unless playing inside
the triangle which is getting trickier and trickier as the
minutes tick away.
But we are getting closer to a resolution now.
It's a buy again on on a break above 8510 for a rally to 8630 -
8681 range. It then has to break above 8690 to trigger a
second long up to 8835-8881 range.
On the downside it has to break the lower dynamic of the
triangle to trigger a short back to the 8219-8200 range.
At all costs 8200 must hold up today on any retest - failure to
do so will flip Bitcoin back into bear territory again back to
8022 initially and then to the 7817-7738 range.
We may be stuck with 100 or so point trades if volumes stay
low today so don't push things unless we see a volume kick
behind us to keep positions open for a little longer.
Apple: AAPL Triangle Formation - Trade Opportunities from HereApple AAPL
Another triangle another opportunity - a break of the lower
dynamic should mean a fall back to 165 if not 155-150. Stops
above the same dynamic when broken.
Upside it has to break above the upper falling dynamic and
then above 175 .10 line to trigger a long to 184 .
ETHUSD: Next Trade Points from Here ETHEREUM/DOLLAR: ETHUSD Next Trade Points from Here
Three waves down and a bear flag/pennant sitting above a
potential bull flag at the bottom of the run. The low was off
the longer term dynamic support line too. Eth is trying to turn
here but is depending on Bitcoin to help it break free of the
downtrend from here. As things stand it's a speculative buy on
dips back to 516 with a stop below 510 and becomes a
stronger buy for swing traders only once 562 has been re-
taken and held by the bulls in this argument. It should then
attract more buyers and rally to 630-635. A good near term
trade if we see it materialise, and probably needing Bitcoin to
break above 8600 and hold for it to happen.
Returning to the downside from here, ETH must continue to
hold at 516 on dips - any failure to do so by more than 5
points will tip it back into bear hands again and force it lower
to 481 at least, and more likely to revisit lows at 452-450
again where it will stand a good chance of double bottoming
before the next rally attempt resumes.
FTSE 100: UK100 Key levels and Trade Set-ups todayFTSE 100 UK 100GBP Key Levels and Trade set-ups today
This chart shows FTSE's great 9 year rally from start point at the lows of 2009 to the end point on 11.01.18. This cycle
forms part a longer 9 year year cycle that was described and shown in last FTSE comment. The lines of support and
resistance are clear and should be helpful in coming trades...
FTSE has bounced excatly where it should have (last comment) and rallied to exactly where it should have within 3
points or so. Day traders and bottom fishers have closed out where you'd expect looking at the lines and now left FTSE
vulnerable to further selling pressure...looks quite likely to restest the 7085 line here and if this cannot hold it will fall
away further still to 6904 and just under to 6870 - but it should try to put up a fight at 7085 if tested later - it's most
likely the key level today, being positive above here and negative below.
On upside it has to break above 7210 and hold to trigger a long up to 7294.
Markets are due to remain voolatile - A break below/above any blue line should lead to a test of the next one. But run
stops around 30 points higher/lower than the trigger levels and trail up/down. Still expect a bottom to be reached
between 3rd and 10th March as per last comment but it can whipsaw in between and should present some decent
trades (with stops) as a result.
FTSE 100 Index: UKX - Cycle High - Short Set-Ups with triggersFTSE 100 Index: UKX Long Term Time Cycles in FTSE Index
After rising 10% at the start of the 2018 FTSE has fallen all the way
back its start point for the year. Up 10% and back down 10% in 6 short weeks. The action looks unlikely to stop now.
In fact it could be just beginning. Probably the greatest trader who ever lived, WD 0.61% Gann , told us to measure
time cycles from high tolow and low to high as well as high to high and low to low and look for potential changes in
trend as these hiddden cyclesrepeat themselves down through time. Previous cycle highs identified the exact date of
the high in 2007 as well as thesubsequent high reached in April 2015 just at the point thatmarkets began a 10 month
20+% correction (for more detailsplease PM) . This cycle marks the period from 10.03.09 majorcrash low through to
the next major cycle low on 06.03.09. From major cycle low to low is 9 years ...which now brings us,
after a 9 year long bull run, to the coming 23 to 27 days,culminating in the anniversary dates between 3rd march and
10th March 2018...
FTSE is already teetering on the brink of critical support at 7092. It has to cling on here on Monday for any failure will tip
this index into bearish territory and trigger a short back to 6868 at least - and then if this level in turn gives way back to
6680-6637. Beneath here the next major support potential lies at the lower parallel and below here at 5777.
So if 7090 gives way on Monday by more than 10 points look to short this index with stops above 7099, targeting 6870
initially, then the 6680-6637 range if 6860 fails to hold during Monday. It's quite probable that should 7090 fail come Monday,
this Index will fall away in stages to test the lower parallel at 6004 on around 5th March - and only then bounce away to the
upside again.This will present some wonderful shorting opportunities along the descent. However, in the very near
term it's likely that contrarian traders will look to go long here, simply because the stop is so close (20 points away
maximum now) but ready to reverse short as above if 7090gives way by more than 10 points. Time, as always, tells.
GBPUSD Two Short set-ups for GBPGBPUSD
Sterling pinged off the next blue line at 1.4317 and leaving
pins on the daily chart - like a crypto in super-slow-mo - this
is moving at one frame per second compared to crypto-world
rate of speed at 240 frames per second - same fractal/ratio.
Although GBP is sitting back on the nearest support it doesn't
look likely to create much of a rally, just a bit of bear closing.
Eventually 1.3832 should give way and it will fall to 1.3633, a
200 pip short when triggered. It may fall further still, to
1.3480. Two potential short trades here, trades, one for 200
pips and second for 150
BCHUSD Next Long Set-ups ApproachingBCHUSD Next Buy Points
BCH is coming back into a buy zone at current levels and
down to 2485 - look to accumulate on dips now with stops
below the dynamic support, looking for 283-2910 area to
begin with and up through 3177-3255 to 4100 further out in
time.
ETHUSD: Next Potential Trade Set-UpsETHUSD Potential Trade Set-Ups
Pretty dull still here. It's not giving up without a fight but not
a range we need to be involved in right now. Maybe if it
breaks the upper dynamic holding back all rallies so far, but it
looks like running into overhead supply at 477 so if you follow
this break, should we see it, look to close out here and only
enter long again on a break above 484 looking to get long on
the next pull-back, ideally to 477 and no lower, using any
winnings from the earlier long trade out of the upper dynamic
as stops for the next long trade.
BCHUSD Underlying very strong consolidating above old structure BCHUSD BCH Dollar Risk and Reward Approaches
Consolidating gains above old structure - really strong
looking and likely to turn up again soon. Ideally it will come back to 1516 and maybe 1461 but looks so far like
1516 will be the lowest it will go. Stick an order in with a stop below 1440. Or stick one in at 1446 - less chance of
getting struck but also lower risk with a stop below 1440. And it may even turn from here around 1548 as there is a
little support here too...up to you...if you can handle the pain of potential drop to lower levels and are prepared to
leave the stop below 1440 it's coming so close to grabbing some, a small position. It can also travel all the way to
the lower parallel by moving sideways to mildly down (ideal situation) but we may not see that. Either way this
coming very close to buying. Different options depending whether you are an old bull prepared to wait or a younger
bull who will sometimes be spot on and sometimes will jump the gun a little. Whatever, it's close to the lows now
with 150 max downside and 450 upside, probably more longer term.
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Some potentially big trades over ThanksgivingBitcoin: BTCUSD Over Thanksgiving Entry Points for some potentially big trades ahead: neutral in near term ahead of the action
Hoping you'll have got out of longs when that pin bar mentioned in last update coudn't be beaten. It was likely a serious player in a low volume market who knew what he was doing at an inflection point with good timing - on a holiday, but still hasn't got much traction on the downside, for all that.
Today was treacherous for day traders (we were lucky to break even after such a messy day, if you made a few points after spreads you've done well in the circumstances.) Did try to warn that profits need taking quickly both short and long, but it was an impossible day for all but the slickest and even they will have found that they've given half or more of any winnings to the likes of Etoro. Please stay away from these people. They rely on the unwary and the inexperienced. You work for them. Today almost all day traders did the same. But sometimes the pattern is clear enough to give us warning, and the chart is doing that now. This is helpful to the future. Today's price action finally looks to be evolving into a large pennant. This should be helpful in the next day or two. It's telling us that the range is narrowing, so if day-trading we need to pick our spots with utmost care and precision or we're working for the broker again. If this was a regular 'stock' the spreads would be so tight we could trade the crap out of it. But this is Bitcoin. So we have to stand back and watch the pattern unfold from here. We know it's going to do one of two things: break up or break down, eventually, but is quite likely to have one more test of the lower line followed by a bounce first.
Buy Points/Signals
1. On a test of the lower dynamic support (lowest rising parallel)
If we see this price action, it's worth buying with stops 30 points under the line when tested.
2. If at any point over the next two days Bitcoin breaks above the upper line of the pennant it is a major buy with stops 50 points under the line when broken - swing traders can join that break too if we see it, increasing longs, because the upside measurement implied by the break is 8834, about 552 points. That would be cool at Thanksgiving. Maybe. It's Bitcoin.
Sell Points/Signals
1. If at any point over the next two days Bitcoin breaks below the the lowest rising parallel (that forms the lower line of the pennant) Bitcoin would turn near term negative and would like fall back to 8000 at first, rally some and then fall away to 7800-7700 range again - a tradeable drop of 350 points - before it rallies again.
One way or another we should get a couple of good trades if we're awake for them.
Happy Holidays America - as divided as you are, you have so much to be thankful for.
Silver: XAGUSD Look to buy dips,, ready for Dollar break-downSilver: XAGUSD Look to Buy Dips
It's just about bearish enough to go long here. But no one
seems very interested. It's likely to need the dollar to break
below it's lower parallel (see DXY comment for back-up to this
trade) before interest picks up here. One thing it has in its
favour is those pin bars forming off the dynamic support shown
on the chart. It's clear we cannot turn negative on silver unless
that line breaks. Don't think it will though, expecting DXY
weakness to save silver and propel it higher from here.
It's a buy on dips back to the dynamic support line and it's a
second buy on a break above 17.05 on dips for a rally to 17.25
minimum and more likely to 17.42. It will then need to break
above 17.46 and hold on the next retest to trigger next long
from here to 18.2. Stops for longs need to be 15 pips under
the dynamic support line to avoid whipsaw.
Silver, like gold, is a buy dips market for now - turning
aggressively bullish of both when DXY breaks its lower parallel.
Brent Crude trade Set-ups for week ahead Clean ChartBrent Crude OIL UKOIL Trade Set-Ups for this Week
Position: Flat - Just didn't trust this short after it bounced at 61.70 first target and then started to build a near term low
at 61.33 so closed out the short for just over 100 pips after spreads, as per updates to last comment. Disappointed at the
time to close out a trade that had stopped behaving according to expectations. Not so disappointed now though.
Brent is now testing the original break-down level at 62.88 after a high one pip higher on Friday. The zone between
62.88 and 63.10 is a treacherous range, full of uncertainty and potential whipsaw - a difficult spot to trade...it should fall
away from here, but that behaviour at the highs doesn't look bearish except in very near term: a tiny flag is forming and
Brent can be shorted here with a stop above the upper parallel, all the way back down to the lower parallel where the position
should be reversed on the first touch, flipping back long again here, with stop 30 pips below the line. The ideal entry back
long would be at 62.30 with stops 30 pips under. Continuation patterns like the last one - and potentially this one too -
usually only have two touches on the lower parallel before moving higher, the second touch coming quite late in the
pattern, and ideally, for bulls looking for clues, leaving a few pin bars off the lows (see last continuation pattern for
comparison). So it's a buy on the next touch of that lower small parallel (stop 30 pips under) for a move back to 62.88-63.10
where look to close out if this trade works out. Then look to see if Brent can start to build a base at 62.88 as we move
through Monday into Tuesday...
We need to watch out this week coming for any such price action and follow with longs again if we see it develop,
looking for another move up to 64.16-64.25 range initially and thereafter back to the upper parallel once 64.30 has been
broken on the upside. Good idea to split this into two trades.
On the downside, first support for Brent is that small lower parallel creating the near term flag - at around 62.26 if hit
early on Monday morning in far East and as low as 62.04 if it comes later in the day - but there should be only one direct
hit, as with the last pattern and ideally it will leave pin bars on the 1 hour chart. All bullish indicators that can be used to
prepare new longs. Barring a brief shake out from currrent levels, as above, Brent will have to move below 62 to flip
back into serious bear territory from here, triggering aggressive shorts down to 61.70 at least, and potentially to 61.33.
But whilst that little flag holds, upside is more likely this week coming.
Brent Crude Oil: UKOIL Trade Set-ups for this weekBrent Crude OIL UKOIL Trade Set-Ups for this Week
Position: Flat - Just didn't trust this short after it bounced at 61.70 first target and then started to build a near term low
at 61.33 so closed out the short for just over 100 pips after spreads, as per updates to last comment. Disappointed at the
time to close out a trade that had stopped behaving according to expectations. Not so disappointed now though.
Brent is now testing the original break-down level at 62.88 after a high one pip higher on Friday. The zone between
62.88 and 63.10 is a treacherous range, full of uncertainty and potential whipsaw - a difficult spot to trade...it should fall
away from here, but that behaviour at the highs doesn't look bearish except in very near term: a tiny flag is forming and
Brent can be shorted here with a stop above the upper parallel, all the way back down to the lower parallel where the position
should be reversed on the first touch, flipping back long again here, with stop 30 pips below the line. The ideal entry back
long would be at 62.30 with stops 30 pips under. Continuation patterns like the last one - and potentially this one too -
usually only have two touches on the lower parallel before moving higher, the second touch coming quite late in the
pattern, and ideally, for bulls looking for clues, leaving a few pin bars off the lows (see last continuation pattern for
comparison). So it's a buy on the next touch of that lower small parallel (stop 30 pips under) for a move back to 62.88-63.10
where look to close out if this trade works out. Then look to see if Brent can start to build a base at 62.88 as we move
through Monday into Tuesday...
We need to watch out this week coming for any such price action and follow with longs again if we see it develop,
looking for another move up to 64.16-64.25 range initially and thereafter back to the upper parallel once 64.30 has been
broken on the upside. Good idea to split this into two trades.
On the downside, first support for Brent is that small lower parallel creating the near term flag - at around 62.26 if hit
early on Monday morning in far East and as low as 62.04 if it comes later in the day - but there should be only one direct
hit, as with the last pattern and ideally it will leave pin bars on the 1 hour chart. All bullish indicators that can be used to
prepare new longs. Barring a brief shake out from currrent levels, as above, Brent will have to move below 62 to flip
back into serious bear territory from here, triggering aggressive shorts down to 61.70 at least, and potentially to 61.33.
But whilst that little flag holds, upside is more likely this week coming.
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Update Short set-ups from higher up Bitcoin:BTCUSD
It's made a break above the small parallel and run into the first line of profit takers and sellers and so far holding up
above that frustrating old dynamic. If you've gone long on the break above the parallel please raise the stop to right under
the old dynamic - say just under 6575 - for maybe break even if this gets slapped back hard again. So long as the dynamic
holds it at 6590 now it should push higher to 6700-6710 where look to take profits. Use these, if realised, as stops for the
next trade. See the next dynamic waiting above? That's the short term upside target. The next hurdlle for bulls will be
beating that line, turning it into support after a potentially lengthy battle and then from there Bitcoin should move up to
6940 at which point it becomes a sell again.
The longer Bitcoin labours like this, even though it should grind upwards to touch 6700, the more it looks doomed,
ultimately, to another big sell off. We have to catch it, but it really has to happen when we're awake, because it's so
volatile. It's more a question of where the ideal spot will be to short it from...well it could turn out to be 6700, which is why
we need to close out longs there on first strike (or set limit order). And if it's not from 6700, and this can be fought and
won by the bulls, turning the near term dynamic (new on chart) into support after an inevitable battle, only then would
the coast be clear for a tradeable long up to 6940 with stop under the new dynamic line by 50 points or so. And then its a
short again at 6940-6950 with a stop 50 points above .
This is complex still, not trending, and full of deceit and whip. It can only be free of it for a fleeting few minutes if it
can bust through that line above it...why wait and wonder?
close out. Go long again only if the new dynamic becomes real support on a retest from above, once broken through on upside.
So we're looking for one more failure, from either 6700 or at best from 6940. The new dynamic will decide that - and our
next move, as above. Be careful of getting carried away on the long side now. It's getting time for another retest of 5747
at least, if not of 5653. And potentially lower still to 5382.There's more downside than upside. Look for a potential top
at 6700 and if that gets broken through, at 6940. If you short here use a stop 50 points above for 100 total risk. If the first
position gets taken be ready to again at 6940.It should come back 250 points quickly. Take them if seen.
That older medium term dynamic has to hold here at 6600 now for long to stay good..stops on longs right under by 25 -35 points for break-even if it fails now.
