Get started

Set-ups

Bitcoin: BTCUSD New trade set-ups with clean chartBITCOIN: BTCUSD Update on Positions Not a bad day, so far but need to keep an eye on this short still...day-traders have made 250 points from the short from 6300 early in UK morning, then another 200 to 450 points from the long at 6050 just an hour later, depending on where you took profits and now we're short once more from the highs of the day at 6450 with a tight stop above 6515 which was never hit - and is now about 300 points in profit, so 750 - 1000 points profit today in a market that is down 200. This is what a chart that is so technically perfect can produce in the way of fast profits. If you can stay alert and act quickly this space is made for traders - there has never been anything better so far, in the history of speculation. It may not last forever (not Bitcoin, which is just beginning) but the perfection of the chart - but whilst it does we have to trade it. Also longer- term readers will know that catching this monster has been the long term aim of this quest since the chase began - we really want it tagged, bagged and thrown in the freezer, the ultimate trophy catch for any serious speculator (or investor if you fell better with that). So maybe we'll get a chance for that later...maybe. But like Ahab on the quest to catch Moby Dick, you gotta stay in the boat to have that chance. Time will tell, as always. Right now we're still short...think we can move the stop down to protect some profits...the central parallel is still bossing this impulse wave as we can clearly see from the chart - whilst it stays in control of the move down we can stay short, hoping for another massive bear raid to come out of China which ideally will drive price down hard to at least make a double bottom at 5637 and potentially to then fall further still to 5113-4973 range where it will become a buy again if we see it hit. LONG Story Short Yeah, right. Difficult to try cover all scenarios: Stay short, using the central parallel as exit (break above here, followed by successful retest from above: newbies please beware: ideally you should just follow for a while and check back over older Bitcoin posts on Sumastardon pages on Tradingview.com to get a better understanding of trading break-outs etc). If the call goes to plan and the central parallel continues to control this move, repelling every encounter the short stays on down to 5747-5637 first target. Then we close out. It will probably try to make a double bottom in this range (which could well extend right down to the low in China last night again, at 5561 at the extreme). Still don't think that this range will likely be the final bottom, but it should create some kind of stall at least and really should trigger a bounce if touched (doesn't have to though, those Chinese can get pretty scared at times) so cannot recommend a quick counter rally long here because the stop is too vague right now - for the first time since Bitcoin began to unravel it didn't bounce exactly off a given fixed support line (blue lines) but exceeded it by fully 80 points - so am less sure about exact level to expect a bounce, making a sensible stop impossible to figure right now...but if Bitcoin does come all the way down to the exact low at 5561 within 10 points either side it might be worth day traders getting long with a stop 50 points lower for small loss if wrong. But we need to be ready to turn entire position round on any fall below 5510, shorting down to 5113-4973 range (with stop placed at 5610 if this trade is triggered) and ready to buy back and go long in this important range with a stop 100 points below 4973 - if this range is tested later it's the ideal place to consider a longer term 'investment' in Bitcoin (ie Slinging it in the freezer) as it looks the perfect range to get long again. But if wrong we need a plan B, worked out in advance: to go wrong, firstly the central parallel needs breaking to tell us the pressure is finally lifted, then it needs to use the
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
2
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Update on Shorts, next trade set-upsBITCOIN: BTCUSD Update on Positions Not a bad day, so far but need to keep an eye on this short still...day-traders have made 250 points from the short from 6300 early in UK morning, then another 200 to 450 points from the long at 6050 just an hour later, depending on where you took profits and now we're short once more from the highs of the day at 6450 with a tight stop above 6515 which was never hit - and is now about 300 points in profit, so 750 - 1000 points profit today in a market that is down 200. This is what a chart that is so technically perfect can produce in the way of fast profits. If you can stay alert and act quickly this space is made for traders - there has never been anything better so far, in the history of speculation. It may not last forever (not Bitcoin, which is just beginning) but the perfection of the chart - but whilst it does we have to trade it. Also longer- term readers will know that catching this monster has been the long term aim of this quest since the chase began - we really want it tagged, bagged and thrown in the freezer, the ultimate trophy catch for any serious speculator (or investor if you fell better with that). So maybe we'll get a chance for that later...maybe. But like Ahab on the quest to catch Moby Dick, you gotta stay in the boat to have that chance. Time will tell, as always. Right now we're still short...think we can move the stop down to protect some profits...the central parallel is still bossing this impulse wave as we can clearly see from the chart - whilst it stays in control of the move down we can stay short, hoping for another massive bear raid to come out of China which ideally will drive price down hard to at least make a double bottom at 5637 and potentially to then fall further still to 5113-4973 range where it will become a buy again if we see it hit. LONG Story Short Yeah, right. Difficult to try cover all scenarios: Stay short, using the central parallel as exit (break above here, followed by successful retest from above: newbies please beware: ideally you should just follow for a while and check back over older Bitcoin posts on Sumastardon pages on Tradingview.com to get a better understanding of trading break-outs etc). If the call goes to plan and the central parallel continues to control this move, repelling every encounter the short stays on down to 5747-5637 first target. Then we close out. It will probably try to make a double bottom in this range (which could well extend right down to the low in China last night again, at 5561 at the extreme). Still don't think that this range will likely be the final bottom, but it should create some kind of stall at least and really should trigger a bounce if touched (doesn't have to though, those Chinese can get pretty scared at times) so cannot recommend a quick counter rally long here because the stop is too vague right now - for the first time since Bitcoin began to unravel it didn't bounce exactly off a given fixed support line (blue lines) but exceeded it by fully 80 points - so am less sure about exact level to expect a bounce, making a sensible stop impossible to figure right now...but if Bitcoin does come all the way down to the exact low at 5561 within 10 points either side it might be worth day traders getting long with a stop 50 points lower for small loss if wrong. But we need to be ready to turn entire position round on any fall below 5510, shorting down to 5113-4973 range (with stop placed at 5610 if this trade is triggered) and ready to buy back and go long in this important range with a stop 100 points below 4973 - if this range is tested later it's the ideal place to consider a longer term 'investment' in Bitcoin (ie Slinging it in the freezer) as it looks the perfect range to get long again. But if wrong we need a plan B, worked out in advance: to go wrong, firstly the central parallel needs breaking to tell us the pressure is finally lifted, then it needs to use the
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
1
BICOIN:BTCUSD Next swing trade set-upsBitcoin BTCUSD Update Too Whippy Got stopped out around even at 7060 this time. Still unconvinced by the rally attempt and looking at that pattern it should fall much further still. Yet, we've seen how tricky it is selling now, with two pin bars on the 2 hour chart, so although bearish this area here between 7137 resistance and support at 6935 is too full of whipsaw so am staying on sidelines having blown 40 pips on bad trades here today. Prefer to wait for one of two signals for next swing trade and leave this range we're in now to day traders to fight over until one side wins the near term: Any break below 6910 will trigger next short, as well as completing the head and shoulders formation above it - with a minimum downside target at 6312, bouncing off the lower parallel as it descends. It could actually spike as low as 6165 at the nadir but should then bounce again powerfully from here, if not from 6312. This scenario looks more likely - but will not necessarily prevail, so still need a plan B in case the upper parallel is broken on the upside at any point (with a successful retest as described in earlier posts) - Bitcoin will have to move above 7135 and then hold up here on the next minor pull-back which will force it above the parallel and away from the clutches of this downwave. Don't think this will happen, but it's Bitcoin. Anything could happen!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
BIITCOIN: BTCUSD testing upper parallel and still vulnerableBitcoin: BTCUSD Got to sleep sometime unfortunately. Sure enough Bitcoin made its low at 6928 after making an initial low off the lower large parallel and bouncing it then came back to make a double bottom low at 6928 before doing what it was meant to...bouncing up to test the upper contolling parallel. Annoyingly, after trying to avoid getting stopped out of a good trade, exactly that happened, the first time for a while that Bitcoin has created a false trigger on that first break above 7135. Shit does happen, even with Bitcoin, sometimes. Anyway the levels given have been spot on pretty much all through this run up and back down (to the point on downside) so please don't be too pissed...we have to accept the occasional false break: no chart gives out perfect signals every time though Bitcoin comes close most of the time. Accept. Move on to next trade: we're pretty much at the next stage forecast in last comment, now: testing the upper parallel. Day traders will have bought off the predicted low at 6928 with stops below but will be taking profits here, forcing Bitcoin sideways towards the upper parallel where it should fall away from again when it gets touched (short with stop above for day traders' next play). Bitcoin will struggle here and it will become vulnerable to another sell off once it's touched the parallel at 7232. It could develop into another large down-wave from here, but doesn't exactly have to...still prefer to be short from the parallel with stop above when it gets touched soon now.This is still a space for day traders right now. For that to change from here that upper parallel needs taking out on upside, then on a retest it has to hold up as Bitcoin comes back down on next minor pull back (might not see it if a large green candle starts to form so this entry will need watching over if and when it arrives)...but if and when that upper parallel gets broken on the upside will be the time to think about going long again or increasing positions (ideal will be a break aove the upper parallel followed by retest which takes Bitcoin back down a little lower as it tracks the parallel downwards for a while before rallying powerfully). Until we see that happen this is still day-trading territory.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
USDJPY Trade set-ups for this week's Fed outcomeUSDJPY A battle royale is raging between these two heavyweights, caught between the lines of near term support and resistance shown on the chart. The fight could go on until Thursday at this rate when one of those two lines should finally give way... It's OK to buy at 113 (with a stop no more than 20 pips away) but would still go flat again at 114.30-114.50 as it's now become such a big level, where fixed resistance frrom a triple top meets the dynamic resistance line falling from the highs. Not looking to short again from 114.3 because DXY is saying the break, when it comes, should be in favour of the Dollar, not the Yen. Therefore unless daytrading this pair needs watching over, awaiting the break (whichever way it comes) for the next worthwhile swing trade... Upside break for USD: USD needs to break above 114.3-114.5 to rout the bears and trigger a flurry buy stops and fresh buy orders just above here - a very bullish outcome - breaking through tough converging lines of overhead resistance in the process. This would create a medium term upside target at 118.1-118.6 for swing traders and a nearer term upside target at 115.3-115.6 for day traders. USD will be likely to fall away again from here, coming back to test 114.5-114.3 range one last time before rallying towards 118. Downside Break for USD: A break below 112.85 (first trade) should result in a fast test of 111.73 - then, only when 111.50 gives way can a more a prolonged period of dollar weakness be expected back to 108-107 range (second short trade) - ideal for swing traders, if we see it. Either way, there should be some good trades emerging over next 48 hours on this pair. Consider setting alerts for either eventuality...
by sumastardon