SET's 4th time RSI(50m)< 30 since it's inceptionEvery time the SET Index enters the RSI "red zone" (oversold territory), the long-term outcome has consistently been positive. Historically, the following 8–10 years have delivered strong returns, with some bull markets reaching over 15% annually.
The duration of time spent in this red zone has also been decreasing—21 months during the 1997 crisis, 6 months in 2008, and just 3 months in 2020. Currently, we are 5 months into this oversold zone.
But unlike developed markets, Thailand’s stock market is largely liquidity-driven rather than purely fundamentals-driven. That means prices can often disconnect from actual economic conditions due to capital flows and investor sentiment.
When liquidity dries up, prices fall sharply—but that also creates mispricing and higher information asymmetry, which can lead to alpha opportunities. This is exactly why we need to pay even closer attention now.
Setindex
Corrective Wave and Chart Pattern Analysis - RSI TFW DivergenceCorrective Wave Structure a ABC Analysis pattern in TFW timeframe
Observations:
A bullish divergence is evident in the momentum near the support zone indicating weakening bearish momentum, the end of wave C, and a potential reversal to the upside.
Analysis:
- Wave A: completed descending channel retraced 61.8% of previous uptrend with 5 wave diagonal pattern - wave A.1 the shortest and wave A.3 is the longest.
- Wave B: retraced 61.8% of Wave A with an extended flat 3 wave abc pattern - wave B.c extended 261.8% of B.a
- Wave C: A descending triangle /ending diagonal pattern is visible within Wave C current extending 61.8% of Wave A.
Support:
- The Green zone (liquidity support) around 4.50 THB is significant, acted as a strong support level multiple times in the past.
- A breakdown below this zone could lead to further downside (red arrow scenario) while holding above it might trigger a reversal (green arrow scenario).
Breakout:
- Resistance levels marked by Wave B’s high 6.4+ THB and intermediate levels around 4.9+ THB are critical breakout moving average 20 week dynamic resistance zone.
- An upward breakout past these levels would confirm the end of the corrective phase and the start of a new bullish impulse wave.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Case (Green Arrows):
TP1: Price holds the liquidity support zone and breaks above 5.50 THB (near-term resistance).
TP2: A successful retest of 6.50 THB Wave B zone could lead to a new bullish wave formation.
RRR: 3:1
Bearish Case (Red Arrow):
A break below the liquidity support zone 4.50 THB would confirm continued bearish pressure.
Price could target lower levels, possibly extending toward 3.50 THB or beyond.
Action:
+ Look for bullish confirmation with a breakout above descending triangle (ending diagonal) resistance 4.80 THB zone
+ Watch for volume surge volume profile indicator to validate the reversal trigger.
+ Monitor price action near the liquidity support zone 4.50 THB.
+ Accumulate only if the support holds and momentum confirms a bullish reversal.
Always trade with affordable risk, respect your stop.
BANPU | TFW Target Downtrend C.5-wave - Breakout Buy TP+80%BANPU wave analysis - target downtrend C.5-wave 4.50 - 4.00 zone
Entry: Buy on breakout downtrend line - ma20w dynamic resistance 3 breakout after bullish divergence often a real reversal.
Target: Key resistance @ 8.00 zone +60-80% profit
Support Indicator: MACD TFW doubled bullish divergence golden cross
PTTGC| Wave Analysis - Ending Diagonal Pattern - Doubled BULL DIA possible ending diagonal pattern scenario - final 5-wave extension confirmation - 161.8% - 200% of 1-wave downtrend target at 27 and 22 baht zone
RSI weekly doubled bullish divergence indicator supporting 5-wave downtrend status
Long Entry: breakout falling wedge/ending diagonal pattern 33-36 baht zone.
Always trade with affordable risk / respect your stop
Good Luck
SCGP - TFW Wave Target Reversal Projection - Bull Trap A potential bull trap scenario with one more wave downtrend.
1. First correction - Extended flat ABC
Wave B retraced 78.6% / w.a and w.C: extended 161.8% of w.A
2. Complex triangle ABCDE pattern
3. The current downtrend wave doubled zigzag ABC pattern with wave 4 in c leg targeting 38.2-50 % retracement at ma50w, creating a false breakout signal before final wave 5 downtrend.
RSI at the lowest position - no bullish divergence trend reversal signal support
BANPU | TFW Target Downtrend C.5-wave - Breakout Buy TP+80%BANPU wave analysis - target downtrend C.5-wave 4.50 - 4.00 zone
Entry: Buy on breakout downtrend line - ma20w dynamic resistance 3 breakout after bullish divergence often a real reversal.
Target: Key resistance @ 8.00 zone +60-80% profit
Support Indicator: MACD TFW doubled bullish divergence golden cross
IVL | Ascending Triangle | Bull Trap - Limited UpsideIVL | Thailand SET Index | Petro Sector | Chart Pattern Trading
> Ascending Triangle continuation pattern - Bullish Trap with limited upside
> Price Action: Wait for tighter candlestick consolidation - Entry @ Demand Support Line Zone only
> RSI - bullish trap signal
> MACD - Bearish Divergence
DP
PTTGC | Wave Projection | Complex Inversed Head&ShouldersPrice action and chart pattern trading setup
> Global pattern bullish complex inversed head & shoulders pattern breakout
> Local bull flag breakout EMA200 dynamic resistance with strong bullish candle - a possible ABC bullish wave targeting new wave 1
> Support pullback entry level : EMA200 zone
> Target 2X bull flag pattern @ 0.786 - 1.272 fibonanci extension +15% upside
> Stoploss @ lower bull flag support B wave zone -7%
> Risk reward ratio: 2:1
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss
KSL | Wave Projection | Triangle ABCDE Wave SetupPrice action and chart pattern trading setup
> A possible uptrend scenario with ABCDE symmetrical triangle major wave 4 ending E - wave position, just above SMMA200/100/50 week making its way up to the triangle resistance wave D.
> Target: Wave projection target breakout triangle resistance from position E-wave as TP1 +30% upside
> Stoploss: E-Wave position -8% - 10%
> Risk reward ratio: 3:1
Indicator:
> RSI weekly: bullish signal crossed up MA line above 50.
> MACD weekly: golden crossing signal line slightly below zero.
Company financial with ongoing outstanding performance +YOY and +QOQ for 3 consecutive years and quarters.
DOHOME| ABC bullish pattern - Breakout Position EntryAfter a long mega bull flag formation breakout and retesting its support
Now a potential ABC wave bullish pennant in progress
Entry: Pennant breakout confirmation
SL: Below pennant
T1: 100% ext. Fibonacci - 15+ baht
T2: 161.8% - 18+ baht
Indicator: RSI week bullish divergence breakout
Always trade with affordable risk, respect your stop
KCE | Elliott Wave Correction Projection | Target -20%+Price action and chart pattern trading:
> The weekly price currently trading below EMA200 W with a possible 4-wave correction rising wedge pattern, approaching target EMA200D
> Entry @ rising wedge breakdown
> Target @ 0.618 extension rising wedge target +20%+
> Stop @ EMA200D -10% downside
> Risk reward ratio 2:1
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss
SINGER | Wave Projection | Major 4-Wave Triangle - MACD GoldenXThe price is currently trading just below 200SMMA as the key resistance under the assumption that its major 4-wave triangle breakout could be possible with double bottom pattern and MACD golden cross.
This bullish scenario has the downside is -8% and the upside is +10 - 20% with RRR: 1.5-2:1.
TIDLOR | Wave Analysis | Falling Wedge Breakout-Bull DivergencePrice action and chart pattern trading:
> A possible ABC correction - C-wave trend reversal in progress
> Falling wedge local trend breakout EMA20D resistance making an inverse head & shoulders pattern.
> TP1 @ SMMA50 as key dynamic resistance and TP2 @SMMA200 with +20%++ upside
> Entry @ Neckline breakout with Stoploss @ H&S head position -8%
> Risk reward ratio: 2.5:1
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss!
PLANB | Elliott Wave Projection - Leading Diagonal 5-WavePrice action and chart pattern trading
> Wave projection - Leading diagonal pattern with a possible 5-wave uptrend
> Entry @ pullback and breakout downtrend line wave 2 and wave 4 near lower support of uptrend wave channel.
> Target @ previous primary wave 3 | 0.786 - 1.0 zone +30% upside
> Stoploss @ upcoming wave 3 and upcoming wave 5 zone -10% downside
> Risk reward ratio 2:1
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss
SAWAD | Elliott Wave Projection | Reversal Pattern BreakoutPrice action and chart pattern trading
> Downtrend Elliott wave channel breakout intermediate ABC correction, a possible reversal with minor ABC uptrend wave
> Pullback Entry @ downtrend channel retest at B-wave
> Medium-term target @ volume profile point of control 0.382 retraced previous uptrend major C-wave
> Stoploss @ the lowest minor 5-wave -5% - 10% downside
> risk reward ratio 2:1 +25% upside
Indicator: RSI already oversold wait for a pull back for the long entry
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stop-loss
III | Elliott Wave Projection - Corrective A Possible Breakout?Price action and chart pattern trading
> Elliott Wave projection - a possible breakout of corrective wave A position at 0.618 retracement of previous wave 5.
> Target Wave B zone estimated at 0.618-0.786 of the current wave A uptrend + 15 - 18% upside again
> Stoploss at the lowest wave A position plus ADR average day range -5 - 7% downside
> RRR 2:1 for short term trade
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss