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Sfp

BTC/USD H4/D1 charts (1/31/2019)Good morning, traders. Yesterday, I advised our Discord members that I didn't like how price action and volume were acting around the $3450 range and was looking for price to target the $3400 level. Price made one more attempt after I stated that to rise higher, but then printed a bearish SFP and found support around $3400 which is the H4 S1 pivot. The move down to that level aligns with yesterday morning's update which stated we would likely see a pullback toward $3410/20. Bitcoin price appears to be printing a very nice TR between $3370 and $3440. Currently, price is sitting just below the 15 minute pivot. If it cannot manage to close above that pivot and target the top of the TR from here, then I will be looking for it to make a push toward the bottom of the TR before doing so. H1 RSI is sitting at 41.5 and hasn't touched oversold yet, suggesting the latter scenario is likely. H4 RSI is still low, currently at 41, and continues to have room to run, suggesting that the current move upward has a good chance to target the H4 pivot at $3530 which then puts price into our blue target box. I am still watching the yellow zone to provide support if price can close above it. This would likely open up a bullish movement above the orange resistance which should then see price targeting the R3 pivot/yellow descending resistance around $3900/$4000. None of this is to say that price will be heading to a new ATH from here, only that if price moves in that manner then that is what we should expect. The yellow resistance is significant so we should generally expect to be rejected at that point since the trend has been corrective for over a year now. By that same token, a close above it should signal more bullish strength and general targets of $4400, 4800, and possibly $5400/$5600. As always, each successive target requires monitoring of price action and volume as it reaches the previous target. At any of those points, we can see price get rejected. Everyone on cryptotwitter and their grandmother is now calling for a possible Adam and Eve double bottom to play out as price continues to drift lower. This is a possibility that I discussed when price first reached the $3100 level. We do have H4 demand around $3240, but in order for price to retain the orange wedge, while targeting that demand, we would need to see price continuing to drift down for another week or so. Any faster than that runs the risk of dropping through the bottom of the pattern. Until that happens, I will continue to monitor the H4 RSI and watch for a push through the noted resistance. Overall, volume has continued to drop and because it's doing so in relation to the movement down since the bullish run up in mid-December, I'm more inclined to believe that it is the result of demand overcoming supply in this area (i.e. still correcting the impulsive December run up). Again, this doesn't mean that I am saying we will go straight up from here, only that at this time we may see a reversal toward the $4400 area before heading back down toward $3000 once more. The positive side of this, for those who want to see accumulation occurring, and ignore the idea of price reaching sub-$2000, is that it would mean we are currently near completion of the ST in Phase A, and if Bitcoin is creating that large TR then that signals stability in the market and alt coins should continue to provide opportunities to profit. But until we see a higher high, above the $4236 swing high from around Christmas, traders should remain suspect of accumulation. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC trapping sellers before one more bounce?BTC is currently in a very important support zone on the daily timeframe (range low). Although we've seen a large red candle two days ago, wicking into 3400s, there was enough demand to push the price back up and the daily candle closed back inside the range (potential swing failure pattern forming). The low wick has taken stop losses below, but the sellers failed to follow the push down. Ideally I would have liked to see the price fill the gap below and tap into 3250s and then bounce strongly to the upside, but we can't ignore what is currently forming on the chart here, which is why I'm posting this analysis. For validation of this trade, we want to see a candle close above 3565, after which I expect that area to hold as a regained support (currently resistance). Targeting the resistance areas above: 1. 3649 2. 3780 3. 3849 (less chance to be reached, but still within range) If the bulls fail to take over here (3530-3476) and push this above 3565 (local pivot point), then I doubt 3430 (weekly support) will hold for long. After a candle close below that level, we can expect 3330-3250 area to be reached next.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by eyupium
2
BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (12/11/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin never could get going yesterday and isn't looking too strong at all today. As a matter of fact, we are currently seeing a bit of a sell-off as I type this. However, we should zoom out to the 4H chart and note that volume has continued to drop on the reactions and rise on the rallies since November 14th. Not only is the volume dropping on the reactions, but the candle spread has also been decreasing during those reactions as well. As I have pointed out numerous times, this is a sign that the current trend is exhausting itself. That doesn't tell us exactly when or where the trend will reverse, only that we should be aware it is growing increasingly likely that it will do so sooner rather than later in the grand scheme of things. So where does that leave us? The current swing low is sitting at $3210 on Bitstamp. A close below this level on the 4H or higher TF should signal a move down to $2900/$3000, which was the swing low region of the September 2017 correction. However, beware of a drop below and subsequent close above $3210 on a 4H or higher TF. That would print a bullish SFP that should send price upward, at least in the near-term. Price closing above the swing high of $3633.20 should signal upward momentum, but there has been significant activity in the $3600-$3800 range indicating resistance waiting in that area. So, traders would still need to remain careful. Because of this resistance, we could see a bearish SFP print which should send price downward, at least in the short term. I will be looking for price to target the 4H R1 pivot at $4025 if price closes above that swing high while keeping in mind the resistance as spoken about. Looking at the charts another way, there is the possibility that the ascending channel that price is in the process of printing at this time on the 1D could be a bear flag. A breakdown of this flag would signal likely further downward price progression. The 1H chart shows the TR that has been playing out for the past four days. Traders should be mindful of the descending black channel that price is attempting to print. A close above the possible channel's resistance would indicate likely further price advance, however we could see price continue below the SC before then as price prints a Spring which would most likely also print the bullish SFP I mentioned above. We would want to see low volume on the Spring when compared to the SC. As always, a Spring isn't required so we could see price moving through the channel's resistance from its current location as well. This would print an LPS at this level and we would be then looking for a move above the TR's resistance in the form of an SOS. The descending solid red line is ultimately what we would like to see price moving above to increase the likelihood that price is heading up rather than down in the larger picture. In that case, the noted possible double bottom would be the left shoulder and the head of the IHS. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
ETH indecision? where are we going ?Hello guys, vOid here for another short update. Took me a couple days to make an update just because nothing really interesting happened to Ethereum. So let's start from the breakout that happened Oct. 8. So that day, we were able to breakout from that upper trend but as you can see we got a Bearish SFP, which brought us back to upper trend support. We found support on that trend line and the market gave another try at that SFP. It got rejected again and dumped to that trend line support again, bouncing on it twice before breaking it. What this tell me is that the second time we hit the upper trend line, there wasn't enough liquidity so stop-loss got liquidated, that why the small bounce before dumping down to lower trend. Now that we are back to the major trend (lower trend) you can see on both bounce that the SFP was bullish. So here's my list of what to watch : We are currently stuck at the tip of the Symmetrical Triangle, with a bullish SFP, I expect a breakout to atleast yellow line. We need to break the yellow line and re-test SFP (white dotted line 231.50) and close above it with a bullish sign to go bullish long-term here. There always a possibility that we just fakeout break yellow line to get stop-loss and dump afterward to break red line. If we do break red line, this a bearish signal to me that we are going to dump to red box or even green box. Volume is at a lowest point, it's a sign combine with the Symmetrical Triangle that a move either UP or DOWN is coming. Stay safe, wait for confirmation signals and happy trading ! vOid P.S. Still improving my english and this platform is the perfect things for me to improve. :D
BITMEX:ETHUSD.P
by vOidca
Is BTC retail being ostensibly bearish in spite of price action?It's Friday, traders, and you know what that means -- liquidity drying up for the weekend as the larger traders take a break and enjoy some down time. This means it is easier to move price with smaller sized positions, so if trading be aware of sudden movements. DXY is getting a bit of a bounce today as I mentioned it would yesterday as a result of it hitting the equilibrium of our box. It is also being supported by the S1 daily pivot. Of course this means that gold has taken a bit of a hit as a result and it is currently finding support on the daily pivot. Remember, gold has been in a descending channel since earlier this year, but it is moving sideways and nearing the resistance of that channel. A clean break should indicate a likely trend reversal. But we are here to talk about Bitcoin, and how about it? Strong move overnight as expected has price topping out at almost $6800 so far. This has price perilously close to a hotbed of over-leveraged, under-capitalized shorts. A daily candle close at/near the day's high would be extremely bullish. Price has hit overbought on the 4H, but only reached about 76 on RSI so we could see a bit more upward movement before a rest. As I mentioned yesterday and a few days before, my expectation was to see price hit this area and then pullback before pushing higher. We have RSI dropping on the 15 Minute chart as price makes slightly higher highs. OBV remains strong for now. MACD has also dropped, but watch the histogram as it is close to printing hidden bullish divergence with higher lows in price but lower lows in the oscillator. This is only the 15 minute chart, so it doesn't mean we necessarily have to target $7K on a move, but it does mean that we could see a push toward $6815/$6850 if it prints. There is also a possibility to see a sudden thrust up toward $6930 or so before a retreat toward $6650/$6700 if it does so. Failure to make those moves upward should signal a retrace to the bottom of the yellow box, or maybe even the upper horizontal red dotted line depending on how fast the drop happened, before the next potential move up. The 4H R2 pivot sits at $6847 which is inline with a move toward the $6850 area outlined above. OBV on this TF looks strong at the moment as well. MACD and RSI are bullish with the latter in overbought territory as mentioned. Ultimately, $6985 gives us the equilibrium of the green box above price as well as the descending blue dashed line which denotes the resistance of the large triangle/wedge that has been printing since February. We have had two technical breaks of this resistance so far -- July and September. A breach of this area has me looking for a target of the equilibrium of the upper blue box, where the previous run up was stopped. We have seen a 10% build up of longs since yesterday while shorts have ended up flat. This has me thinking that retail traders are being ostensibly bearish, and contrary to possible price action, which could provide fuel for a short squeeze. Again, I am not saying that it must happen, only that if it does the likely clues are making themselves known with glitter and sparkle.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
7
BTC - 300$ green is not a bottom. From what I see on a daily. We have not much hope for a big reversal or change in trend. But neither i can see us going further low. First FA: We have taken out our Feb lows and made an SFP (swing failure pattern). At this point, there was a lot of liquidity that caused this pump we saw recently. But don't think that 300$ up is how the bottom looks like. Interesting that after this swing failure we have bounce exactly from the support level where our most crazy parabolic move started in November ( marked as the last line of support). Another good argument for the Bulls is that we just had 3 weeks of red that is happened only a few times with BTC and next week we will see some green. Currently, we are sitting in the bullish OB from October 2017. and at the moment we didn't break it and we didn't break the market structure. Failure of this OB retest now will be a great point to short further on the way down. Any move below our last line of support at 58 levels can send us to lower 5s or even to higher 4s as we have a huge volume profile gap and price gap from the pump in October. Those gaps need to be filled as they don't have usually strong support or price action inside. I would watch weekly close and i think we will have our TR 58-65 for the next week.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingRange
SFP @ 118.76SFP on a big level with MACD divergence and beyond ATR EUR is in a large downtrend, however this trade has a good R:R and after this parabolic move down a decent probability of a retracement at this time. Hit market and got filled at 118.779, note I was a 10 minutes late in spotting this, then paid up a few ticks to avoid being left behind, it subsequently retraced some pips. Perhpas should be more patient on the entry when countering a strong trend as there is a higher probability of getting a better fill during the absorption phase.
Long
by Mark-Hewitt