Monthly Arc pattern. Short.SGDJPY is trading within an Arc pattern on the Monthly chart (RSI = 50.506, Highs/Lows = 0.0000, MACD = -0.380, B/BP = -0.9320) and the symmetrical Lower Highs are evident. One is such currently ar 81.800 which has tested the 1D Resistance level (RSI = 60.899) and is expected to be rejected and reverse lower. We are entering a short, TP = 80.265.
SGDJPY
SGD/JPY 1H Chart: Short-term decline expectedThe SGD/JPY exchange rate has been tended north since the middle of August when it reversed from the senior channel near 80.10.
The general direction is expected to remain north within the scope of the next week. Two important levels to look out for are the monthly PP at 81.88 and the weekly R1 at 81.93.
However, technical indicators suggest that this advance might not be immediate, as some downward pressure is likely to push the rate down to the 100-hour SMA at 81.22 or slightly lower to the weekly PP at the 81.09 mark.
Potential weakness in SGD as CNY weakens, stronger JPY on riskFundamentally, as trade tensions worsen, SGD should weaken in tandem with CNY while risk aversion will cause JPY to strengthen. On the charts, SGD/JPY is trying to break below the Ichimoku clouds. Keep an eye on this as it could develop into a strong bear trend on the weekly chart.
SGD/JPY 1H Chart: Pair restricted by 82.80The Singapore Dollar has been gradually appreciating against the Japanese Yen since it bounced off the senior channel circa 79.75 mid-March. The latest wave up in this junior pattern began on May 29.
The pair should have tested its upper boundary today; however, the strong resistance by the monthly R1 at 82.80 has halted any attempts to reach the given channel this week. This might point to a change in sentiment, thus resulting in a fall within the following session.
If the 55-period (4H), 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the 38.20% Fibo retracement are breached near 82.40, the Singapore Dollar is most likely to decline and target either the 100– and 200-period (4H) SMAs or the monthly PP at 82.00 and 81.50, respectively.
Conversely, the rate moving above 82.80 should be followed by a slight surge until 83.50 prior to making a bearish reversal.
Buying SGDJPY around 77.00If price moves to the 77.00 area, then I'll be looking to buy this pair. If this happens, then I'll be watching for bull candles to be posted on the daily time frame. Once I see a bull candle, then I'll move to the 1H time frame where I'll place buy limit orders at previous market levels.
SGD/JPY 1H Chart: Points to possible declineThe Singapore Dollar has been appreciating against the Japanese Yen for the past few weeks. The pair breached a senior channel late in March and has since reached the upper boundary of a shorter-term descending channel.
If looking from a longer perspective, this pattern resembles a range in which the rate has been bounded since early February. The Singapore Dollar was testing the upper boundary of this channel and the monthly R1 at 82.00 late on Tuesday. The given resistance pressured the rate lower back down to the 55– and 100-hour SMA at 81.60.
The diminishing trading range in the most junior channel suggests that the rate could respect the 82.00 level and thus edge lower towards the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement and the monthly PP at 80.80 during the following week. This decline might continue even further down to a ten-month low of 79.50.
A+ BEARISH SGDJPY PLAYSTOP LOSS : 81.953
TAKE PROFIT : 77.201
Risk-reward : ~4x
Longer term trend: Bearish
Current trend: Bearish
General comments:
Price hit the 61.8% of the bearish move when price was trending in a rising channel. Price quickly broke the support of the channel and surpassed the 81.45 support area. Price is now retesting the same area as resistance, with a beautiful pin bar piercing through but closed below.
What I like:
1) Excellent entry point - stop loss is relatively close-by.
2) Existence of bearish momentum - price breaking the support of the rising channel translates into high odds of price moving towards the 77.2 level.
What I dislike:
1) first trouble area nearby - potential area whereby buyers will be more aggressive is around the 79.5-80 region, the most recent swing low. Will be paying attention to how price reacts.
Other things to note:
nil
* Do support by liking and following! All suggestions/feedback welcome!
x,
iskfx
SGDJPY LongSGDJPY tested Weekly demand, proved there are unfilled long orders left on the table.
Limit order triggered 6 hours ago. Just posting this now for post analysis and progress tracking.
Going for only 3R target.
If you are applying Supply & Demand methodology in your trading plan, or mere interest,
Be sure to follow me on Tradingview and share your views.
SGD/JPY 1H Chart: Bearish sentiment allaysThe Singapore Dollar is moving lower against the Japanese Yen in a channel down. This movement south began on February 2 when the pair bounced off the upper boundary of a more senior channel down.
The rate has failed to breach the combined support of the weekly S1 and the 38.20% Fibo retracement at 80.83, thus diminishing its trading range within the junior pattern. This suggests that the prevailing bearish sentiment might finally allay and therefore allows bulls to regain some lost positions.
In order to do so, the Singapore Dollar has to surpass the resistance of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the upper channel line at 81.20 and 81.40, respectively. This could sent the pair for a test of the 82.20 or 82.70 areas within the following two weeks.
On the other hand, further downward pressure from the 55-hour SMA might dominate until the senior channel circa 80.20 is reached. This pattern is expected to hold strong, thus allowing for a subsequent surge.
Grade B SGDJPY bearish breakoutRising channel since April-2017 till beg-2018.
STOP LOSS : 84.367
TAKE PROFIT : 77.189
Risk-reward : 1.35
Longer term trend: Bearish
Current trend: Bullish
General comments:
A bearish break of a rising channel, indicates a further bearish movement ahead.
What I like:
1) the major support/resistance area exists near the 50% retracement of the huge bearish movement. This means a stop loss above these levels of interest is sufficient enough should the market need room to breathe.
2) since the start of 2018, only lower lows and lower highs were seen. this shows the decisiveness of the market.
3) a bearish engulfing bar was formed after breaking the bullish channel. such candlepattern indicates strong bearish sentiment.
What I dislike:
1) price was flat from mid-september to mid-november, around the support/resistance area marked in blue. This shows that the market is not as receptive to that zone as it was.
Other things to note:
1) a very aggressive stop-loss can be placed just above the resistance area, to increase position size while risking the same amount.
*This is my first few attempts to contribute to the tradingview community. All suggestions/feedback welcome!
x, and happy chinese new year,
iskfx
SGD/JPY 4H Chart: Singapore Dollar tests long-term channelThe dominant long-term pattern which as confined SGD/JPY since mid-2016 is an ascending wedge. This long-term pattern is mentioned because the rate bounced of its lower boundary on Tuesday. Thus, the Singapore Dollar’s attempt to reach the bottom line of a five-week channel was stopped near 82.60.
The rate has since edged slightly higher during the previous session; however, the rate still faces several noteworthy resistance areas, such as the 55-hour SMA and the 38.20% Fibo at 83.30 and the monthly PP, the 23.6% Fibo and the 200-hour SMA circa 83.45, that are likely to hinder the pair for a brief period of time. These barriers, however, should eventually surrender and allow the pair to initiate a medium-term surge.
A possible target for the following week could be the psychological 84.00 level.
SGD/JPY 1H Chart: Possible change in sentimentSGD/JPY was trading in a channel up for two months prior to breaching this pattern to the downside. The pair subsequently fell down to 83.40 and has since remained slightly above this mark.
The current movement sideways suggests that a surge might be due in the nearest time. This assumption could be confirmed if the Singapore Dollar fails to breach the combined support of the monthly S1 circa 83.30 during this week.
The nearest upside target is the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP near 84.20, while the rate might push towards the monthly and weekly R1s at 85.00 during the following week or two. Its positioning suggests that a surge might follow in the medium term, thus setting the upper wedge boundary circa 85.60 as a possible target.
SGD/JPY 1H Chart: Rate tests short-term channelA pattern that has dominated the SGD/JPY currency pair since late April is an ascending wedge. It seems that the maturity of this pattern could be reached within the following weeks, thus pointing to a possible breakout south.
In the short term, the Singapore Dollar bounced off the upper wedge boundary early in November and has since edged lower; thus, another formation—a more chaotic channel down—is apparent on the chart.
This pattern is guiding the pair towards the lower wedge boundary in the 81.90/82.20 area. The given channel is expected to dominate, thus pointing to weakening during the following week.
The nearest support is the 200-hour SMA, the weekly and monthly PPs circa 83.20. The Singapore Dollar might hinder near this mark, but should eventually breach it and approach the weekly and monthly S1s at 82.50.
SGD/JPY 1H Chart: Several patterns at playThe pair’s movement has been guided by several patterns, the most eminent of which are a long-term ascending wedge (valid since mid-2016) and two shorter-term patterns—a channel up and descending wedge.
The Singapore Dollar bounced off the upper line of all three patterns on October 25 when it found the resistance of the weekly R1 at 83.74 and is now weakening against the Yen in the previously-mentioned descending wedge.
It should also be noted that the pair breached a three-month channel up last Friday. This factor together with characteristics of the junior wedge suggest that the pair might form a retracement near the 83.50/60 mark prior to resuming its movement down to the lower channel boundary circa 82.60/80.
Given that the rate faces a significant resistance area set by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP, the rate might not even gain enough strength for the retracement, thus continuing to trade lower both in short- and medium term.