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Shakeout

Stonks: Where to buyRemember when I said a few months 80% retail traders were short DJI & SPX? Well they kept hodling to their losers, and probably adding to them. Well... this week shorts have dropped by 30 to 40% and now there are more longs. They held onto losers forever, and then exited the very WEEK the price went down! Breakeven bagholders. The typical really dumb bad speculating that every article & book on trading talks about, and the majority does "oh noes I don't want to take a loss I rather bagHODL a giant loser for 6 months and risk losing everything for a shot at breaking even", and when it goes their way "quick quick I have to lock profit because this is what you do, when it goes your way, you take profit" (??????). Going to keep going down as more retail turn long? If the price would fall as low as described in the following screenshots, I would buy there on the SnP & DJI: Not if it trends down... If it capitulates very rapidely there. If we got there by early april as SARS V2 The return of the CORONAVIRUS disappears, now that would be perfect. Can't tell for other indices, gets too complicated for me. I'd use a stop of about just 5%, and if it gets hit I would look for another chance to buy. Goes up from there well I wait for the trend and hold for a while. I hope we get to see some real panic, some FEAR. I want to see sweat & fear out there :) Would be perfect. If CNBC calls for a mega bear market then you know it's time to buy :) Oh btw, an ABC very extended C would be perfect: Point of the story is these slow hesitant "disbelief" trends are very weak and drop way faster than it took them to go up. Always have to be the first to exit. I don't like fighting the drop until 100% retrace. And the opposite is: Go up fast go down slow, go up slow go down fast. Always the same story (well not always not what I mean). The bounce will probably be fast at first, then a disbelief slow trend up. Like this:
TVC:SPXLong
by MrRenev
10
BITCOIN NOVEMBER 10 / INTRADAY SHAKEOUTHello traders. Check my previous ideas to see what's next on BTC/USD price action. Wanted to share this intraday idea with you guys.. Maybe it will help somebody on their entries.. I'm looking at this recent move as a bull trap in short term.. We didn't reach crucial blue zone just below and stopped at $8680.. We need more liquidity to go higher and strong supply will grant our wish.. My target is $8588 where I'll add to my long position . Not much to add here.. $8540 is 0.618 fib of recent move from 7.3k to 10.3.. Be cautious . This is not a financial advise. Until the next one!
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by Patrikas10
2
Shakeout/spring vs Drop after distribution On the left we have the coinbase 4hr chart from October. You can see the shakeout drop from 7990 to 7300 There is a spike in volume which acts as a spring to pump price to 10540 On the right we have the coinbase 4hr chart from November. Don't be fooled in to thinking this is the same price action. After distribution finished, the price dropped. Slowed by the moving average, walls on exchanges to encourage people to long. Compare the volume profile. So far there is no volume here and once enough leveraged longs are in, I expect the drop to continue. There could be a small rise to liquidate bottom shorters, in which case I would be looking at 9030-9070.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by paulflint
The big shake is coming?Monthly closed at-last, and to me it looks bearish.. but I already showed why on monthly I see same bearish (Correction) patterns like from previous parabolic run: Today I wanted to zoom in to weekly and show you why I see same bearish (Correction) patterns: 1. Just like in any market, when fear holding their assets they are panicking, and this is why usually crashes are much much stronger then rises... as you can see I drew the falling momentum, first the yellow lines which formed a descending triangle (The are between blue and ground yellow is area of interest which usually acts as strong support by previous candles), then came the fear (red line) which broke below the support levels, then came the panic sells (crush with last candle that used the support level as strong resist)... 2. Bearish candles are much more active (And I bet that the next one is going to be bigger then the last green one).. 3. Many indicators show bearish (if we check weekly/monthly), but I wanted to focus on my favorite 3: * OBV (I usually call it "buying power volume" as some of you noticed, because with this I can confirm if the buyers have enough power to hold higher levels) - - What is interesting is that many times when OBV goes below last higher highs it usually falls harder because bulls losing momentum (fuel), so just like we passed below higher high on the previous parabolic run, we now seem to pass below the higher high from the previous parabolic run - means we gonna fall harder towards the last OBV support. - Accumulation/distribution - Just like on previous bull run we can see that distribution is taking stronger effect (usually happens after we see that the accumulation is distorted at top, just like before we can see the same going on now) - Macd - As I mentioned before I don't like to see these "over sold" indicators that every one are talking about - on small TFs, I love to watch these on bigger TFs.... and guess what we see? exactly, reversal, EXACTLY THE SAME as on the previous parabolic run.... So tell me? on bigger picture, what do you guys see? * PS1: I don't say that BTC is dead, I just say that it is going through a normal correction like we had on every bull run ever.... I'm still a 100k-1m BTC vision-er like always.. but as always I do say that FA and SA sux nowdays (Just like when I said they were when we got to 14-20k last time).... * PS2: As I always say, TA's are just probabilities out of endless possibilities, but as we are human beings we can sometimes be wrong, why? because markets work on emotions, and emotions change fast, I see bearish, but it doesn't mean that it is absolute... let's see where we go :) **************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************** * If you like what I do, and want to see more then don't forget to push that "follow" and "like". * Also if you want live time signals and learn with the community then you are welcome to join here: t.me * If you want to appreciate my work with spare BTCs then you are welcome to send them to: bc1q8kzn0x8j4dmws00ntuhyma8p4c9jwyj0gzxua9 Cheers, love <3 Hedgehog King! ****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by Hedgehog_king
The BIG BTC Shakeout...Don't be fooled, BE PREPARED! FUN TIMES!Longs getting rekt, then shorts will get rekt and most will get left behind. Looking at COINBASE:BTCUSD on the 3 DAY, because the big profit is in the broader moves. When you throw a tennis ball hard at the ground, does it bounce higher than where you released it from? -It's gonna come down even faster than it went up, and if buy orders aren't in place you'll be chasing an entry after the hard bounce. -Violent move down just starting, longs getting liquidated and stop losses getting hit...still more pain to come. -Think about how market movers leave the most people behind...destroy the hopes of 10k anytime soon, only to be above it after massive rally bounce after sweep below 6k. (HINT: LOADS OF LIQUIDITY BELOW 6K) -This is the BIG SHAKEOUT. 6K will be broken just long enough to draw in all the bears and turn bulls to bears. Market will reverse and use all those shorts, which already outnumber the longs to rocket it's way back to 5 figures... Close Below $5150 and I'd say this is a failed idea, but until then it's still bullish correction/shakeout. What are your thoughts? Please share your ideas and let's discuss
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by StakeStack
This is how the next weeks will play out, final drop yet to comeWow, what a drop that was the last days. INSANE. It took me also by surprise I have to admit, the sheer intensity of it, and that we actually exactly hit the longterm support line. Yesterday we had no bounce at all, and I was worried that we'll actually go below 4k, directly to 3k, which would have been very bad for BTC, it would have lead to a more intense bearmarket with lows of even 1200 in 2019, dragging into 2020. Ugly. However, it seems now that we're finally bouncing. A few things are pointing towards that: 1. Bitfinex Shorts went up like crazy, and are above longs now: This is one of the best contrarian indicators I know of, because BTC often does the exact opposite of what most people are thinking. That's why I think that the chances that we'll creep upwards to almost 6k again in the next weeks are high. 2. Daily RSI is insanely low. THE LOWES ON RECORD TO DATE ! Sick stuff o_O So, a bounce is highly likely, BTC is like a coil, when stretched too long, it will bounce back with force. 3. Daily stoch RSI on oversold, looking like turnaround: Daily stoch RSI, likes to go from overbought to oversold and back and forth in cycles. This means that we'll probably see it going upwards from here the next days. Summa sumarum: We'll see it bouncing from here, since after all, we hit an important trendline, and as we all know, people looooooooove those lines XD. We'll continue to climb for the next days, and creep above the trendline for the next weeks, looking as if the trendline will hold, which of course it won't, as we here are smart and know that trendlines don't count a lot for longterm BTC growth. Then finally the "shakeout ultima" in january-march, maybe as late as march, hard to point out a timeframe, but certainly Q1 2019, with our low at 2600 USD. This analysis is only valid if we bounce today and the next days. If we do so, we can continue to play our playbook back from earlier this year, when it first cristallized that BTC will do a bearmarket. I'll send my funds to Kraken, Bitstamp, etc. in January and wait for that final drop, and then I'll buy like a crazy bastard. I don't advise you to do the same, I can just tell you rationally what I'll certainly do. The next weeks will be crucial for everyone who has the goal to make some real cash with the next megabull cycle in 2020-2021/22. Be prepared. Stay focused. Play the playbook :) Good luck to you all !
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
13
BTC/USD 1D/1W charts (11/21/2018)Good morning, traders. So far, we have been seeing decent movement with Bitcoin since yesterday's $4048 low. Furthermore, my PnF count has the $4,000 area as the low based on the descending triangle pattern that price exited through the bottom of in that chart. If that count holds up, then we should, at minimum, move sideways for a bit, if not head back up. At this point, we have filled in the 1W low volume node and bounced off the monthly OB. I realize there are a lot of calls for lower, which remains a possibility, but for now at least it seems like we may be getting a reprieve from the downward momentum. Daily RSI is finally rising and currently sits at 13.6. OBV has continued to rise off the low on the 15 minute chart and has been rising on the 4H chart as well. The 1D has created a large descending broadening wedge, as mentioned yesterday, which should now provide a target of $1400 above the breach if price exits through the wedge's resistance. 4H RSI is sitting just above oversold once more with a lot of room to run, if price continues to rise, and MACD is nearing a bullish cross. In the near term, I am looking for price to target $4800-$4900 before a bit of a larger pullback. However, we will need to see price push through the swing high at $4761 in order to do so. Beyond that, $5000 remains psychological resistance and $5800/$6000 (the bottom of the 2018 TR) is the larger target. A further close above $6500 all-but-guarantees the corrective market is behind us. It is at that point that we will likely know whether or not price will continue lower. If price happens to drop below yesterday's low, then we will of course continue to look at $3600/$3700 as the next potential bounce area. So, what have I been looking for in terms of confirmation? As I mentioned during the live streams, I am waiting for a nice hammer or other strong bullish candle on the 4H TF, at the least, but preferably on the 1D, 3D, and/or 1W. Additionally, a bullish engulfing candle on one of those larger TFs would also qualify as confirmation of a bounce at the very least. This should be preceded by a lot of very negative sentiment noticeable throughout social media (which I believe we are in the process of seeing). Although volume is higher on this week of downward movement than it has been lately, the reality is that it is very small compared to the Selling Climax in February. This leads me to believe that the current shakeout is a #2 Spring which is most readily associated with a Terminal Shakeout. Whereas the #1 Spring in February is denoted by the large and increasing candle spreads and expanding volume (large drop with large supply), the #2 Spring is denoted by large and increasing candle spreads but only moderately expanding volume (large drop with moderate supply). The question is, is this the 21 or 23 version of #2 Spring? We need to continue watching price action and volume to get an idea. If you have been paying attention, then you will have noticed that Bitfinex Longs have been increasing steadily during this downswing. Why is this important? Because you should have noticed that a significant number of longs have been liquidated as well. This means that more Long positions are being opened than closed on the down move suggesting absorption. Additionally, Shorts have continued to build as price dropped further. This leads me to believe that smart money is going long while retail is going short. Possible support for such an analysis can be found in social media as the general sentiment is despair and pain. These Shorts will help fuel the move up as much of the supply should have been removed during 2018's accumulation as well as the recent shakeout. Any strong movement back up should see retail traders FOMOing in as well thereby accelerating that rebound. There is no guarantee that all of this will happen, but it remains the most likely scenario at this time, once this shakeout is complete. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
4
BTC/USD 4H/1D charts (11/19/2018)Good morning, traders. Welcome to Monday and it may not be the Monday many of you had wanted or planned for unfortunately. As I said on Friday, I was expecting volatility by the beginning of the week and here we are with fresh lows as price pushes toward that liquidity just below $5000. This is why I did not go long yet. As I explained during the live streams, what is happening right now was a distinct possibility so the least riskiest option was to wait and see if it happened or re-evaluate price around $6000 if it went up instead. The current drop in price has been printing bullish divergences across just about every TF. The 1D RSI has now hit 14.5, which is significant as is the length of time it has spent in oversold (almost a week now). Price has hit a low of $5050 so far but is encountering a lot of support. I will be watching for an SFP by the end of the daily candle which would require a close above the November 15th low of $5199.80 on Bitstamp. However, that swing low was only a few days ago and SFPs are most powerful when they are separated from the swing low for a greater period of time. Nonetheless, an SFP should result in a decent bounce at the very least. 4H price is attempting to print a steep descending channel with support being found at the equilibrium at this time. I say "attempting" because a channel requires four alternating touches of support and resistance but there are only three so far. If price bounces from/near its local low then, using the width of the descending wedge which would result, we should expect price to target about 775 sats above the breach of the pattern and this would put price right back above $6000/$6100. This 775 sats also happens to be the width of the channel, so even if price prints the channel and then breaks the channel's resistance, we would still expect a move up of about 775 sats from that point. As I mentioned last week, the 1D S4 pivot sits around $4900, so with this morning's move down I wouldn't be surprised to see it targeted. That doesn't mean it will make it that far down, but an attempt to do so would tap the liquidity just below $5000 as I have been talking about and should cause price to rebound sharply, especially with the very low 1D RSI. The 4H S1 pivot sits at $5043 and is currently supporting price. The 4H chart is printing bullish divergence as I type this, but traders will need to monitor price action closely to see whether or not this plays out. The lower lows in price are set so any further downward movement is fine, but we would need to see MACD and/or its histogram printing a higher low. With the local TR playing out as it has, this could very well likely be a terminal shakeout for that TR. WAVES is seeing a heck of a pump right now, XRP continues to rise as well, and XLM seems to be holding its own. There are likely to be many great buying opportunities as a multitude of alts are significantly in oversold territory on their RSI as well as bouncing off pivots. The two biggest issues most retail traders are experiencing at this moment are emotion and lack of patience. How can we tell? Because of the number of BTCUSD longs and shorts that continue to get liquidated due to this morning's volatility. Retail traders are jumping in and YOLOing their positions (i.e. throwing money at max leverage and praying that price moves the way they want it to). At this point, price has hit my first target area between $5250 and $5460. We may see a bit more downside, however, which would tap liquidity sitting just under $5000. If price happens to make it that far down, my expectation at this time is to see a good-sized candle as price rebounds out of that liquidity. The buildup of shorts on the shakeout should help fuel upward momentum. I expect to see a Test around the bottom of the 2018 accumulation TR ($5900 area) before continuing higher once buying picks up, but depending on just how much supply has been removed from the market, price may overshoot that level. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
BTC/USD 1D chart (11/15/2018) Price up?Good morning, traders. I hope you were able to join the live stream yesterday morning as we discussed exactly what happened, calmly and unemotionally (okay, so I may have laughed a bit) -- how it was playing out as I suggested it would months ago if we saw a terminal shakeout and what to expect next. So far, things continue to play out as expected. The next few days are crucial, however, in determining which way price is likely to go. The reality of it is that the 1D RSI is obscenely low at 14 and the 4H remains oversold at 9 after closing at an anemic 5.5 yesterday morning. We even see the 3D moving into oversold territory this morning. This means that we should expect a good bounce at the very least. No, it doesn't happen immediately, but it should happen sooner rather than later. As such, traders should be paying attention to the 1D chart. Not all price drops are created equal. So, what do I believe happened yesterday? I believe it was a terminal shakeout. A normal shakeout/spring is initiated during a bullish/upward trend and is a product of, or otherwise characterized by, weakening price. A terminal shakeout, however, is preceded by a trading range and comes at the end of accumulation, signalling that the preparation for mark up is complete. If you've been following me for a few months then you know price had been in a tight TR since the end of the first week in September. That's just over 2 months. You can also zoom out and notice that it had been in a larger TR since the Selling Climax on February 5th. Whichever you choose to look at, the reality is that this drop came after being in a TR for quite a while making it much more likely to be a terminal shakeout than a normal drop toward $3000 as the result of a descending triangle. The purpose of the terminal shakeout is to scare the remaining weak hands into selling their asset prior to mark up commencing by creating a false impression of the direction of the market thereby creating a "bear trap." It does this by running stops on longs and encouraging short selling. Once the shorts are locked in and stops have been run, price reverses causing shorts to liquidate or cover as well as FOMO into longs from those sitting on the sidelines. Watching tucsky.github.io we were able to witness longs' stops getting triggered and numerous, significant, liquidations. Bitfinex shorts grew 8500 in the past 24 hours. That's 45%. And of course www.coinfarm.online showed Bitmex shorts growing substantially as well, causing the funding rate to flip strong and hard to shorts paying exponentially more to longs (www.coinfarm.online). Remember, all contributors to the market affect price finding, so although Bitfinex is having its own issues with the new bank and Tether's value, and Bitmex deals with swaps, rather than spot, these things help us get a clearer picture of what's going on in the market. The terminal shakeout results from poor quality supply which is another way of saying weak hands hold too much supply. It is then answered with high quality demand. The key in all of this is how much supply is removed from the market and how much of that supply is absorbed. This will become much more clear in the next few days. So far, we saw large volume on yesterday's drop suggesting that C.O. was hard at work absorbing the supply. We continue to see good-to-decent volume today, suggesting the same. Importantly, the volume yesterday was much lower than the SC in February which tells us that there is much less supply floating around than there was back then, further suggesting 2018 has likely been accumulation. At this point, price has hit my first target area between $5250 and $5460. We may see a bit more downside, however, which would tap liquidity sitting just under $5000. If price happens to make it that far down, my expectation at this time is to see a good-sized candle as price rebounds out of that liquidity. The buildup of shorts on the shakeout should help fuel upward momentum. I expect to see a Test around the bottom of the 2018 accumulation TR ($5900 area) before continuing higher once buying picks up, but depending on just how much supply has been removed from the market, price may overshoot that level. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
6
BTC/USD 15 min/4H charts (11/12/2018)Good morning, traders. Over the weekend Bitcoin dropped a bit more to a low of $6269.46 but held the general low from Friday which means it remained above the swing low of October 31st. The bounce off that drop targeted the 4H pivot, retreated to the equilibrium of the large trading range we've been in since the beginning of September, and is targeting the 4H pivot once more. At the least, I'm expecting price to make a run for the 4H R1 pivot at $6510, just below the local swing high of $6544 on November 6th (which is the target of the dotted blue descending broadening wedge that price appears to have printed). A close above this swing high, especially on the 1D, should be bullish for the pair. The CBOE Bitcoin futures expire in two days on November 14th. Will we see volatility at that time? Last month we did not. However, traders should be prepared for volatility at the futures closes as that is what we have typically seen. As mentioned above, price breached the resistance of the descending broadening wedge after its drop. This printed bullish RSI divergence between the November 9th and 11th lows. It then tested that previous resistance as support and has continued appreciating. The 4H RSI is bullish at 50.5 and MACD crossed bullishly a few candles ago. OBV on the 4H remains a bit of a potential concern. It has been trending down since October 17th. However, it continues to remain significantly higher since its September 12th low. It does appear that OBV is printing an ascending channel, but we need to see it heading higher from here to give us a chance at confirming it. As long as OBV continues to trend higher as it has been since September 12th, the shorter term recent downtrend is nothing to worry about. The 15 minute chart shows price printing a flag after the bounce off yesterday's low. The target based on the pattern's flagpole should be around $6491. This puts it at the 15 minute R3 pivot as well as just below the above-mentioned 4H R1 pivot. The light blue box is the expected target area based on the various patterns and pivots. A good, solid close in this area, above the red descending resistance line, should bring $7150 into play. However, this target does not exist until price actually closes above the flag's resistance. Even then, as always, traders must use strong risk management as nothing is ever guaranteed and price could just print a technical break and then fall back. I have outlined the local TR on this TF so that traders can continue to watch for movement into and/or out of the TR, giving them a better understanding of price movement in this area. Price falling below the bottom of the TR should indicate further downward progression which will have us watching the $6270 and $6200 levels for support. The 1D chart shows price continuing to consolidate resulting in contracting volume and volatility. It also shows RSI sitting just under bullish at 48, having bounced off the previous resistance line. MACD is sitting just under centerline. OBV has been moving within a horizontal range since August 14th but is currently testing the resistance at the top of that range. This should hit the descending resistance printed by the October 15th and November 7th highs. OBV has remained in an uptrend since the October 11th drop in price. I will take a closer look at the 1D during this morning's live stream. Ultimately, we are watching for price to push through the upper black horizontal line which denotes the top of the resistance area at the $6800 level thereby creating a show of strength (SOS). The expectation at that point would be retracement and consolidation around that upper black horizontal line (possibly printing a pennant) in the form of a "back up to the edge of the creek/last point of support" (BUEC/LPS) followed by another SOS above $7000. If that SOS-to-BUEC/LPS prints a pennant around $6800, then at this time we can expect a target of around $7600 when price breaks the pennant's resistance. This would complete the complex fulcrum and should signal the bull market is likely in effect. Remember, a breach of $8500 gives us the higher high that we've been waiting for and would likely be a strong buy signal to many traders sitting on the sidelines. After that, $10,000 becomes the next signal, and then of course the February high around $11,780. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 1H/4H charts (11/01/2018)Good morning, traders. The Internet is, once again, anything but stable this morning so there won't be a live stream but I will record a video and upload it as soon as the connection is stable enough to do so. Tech comes tomorrow so by Monday we should be good to go. During yesterday morning's live stream, we witnessed price doing what I suggested it would. The break to the downside stopped just about $5 from my target. After that we saw significant buying as price immediately shot up $150 right into my upper target range. This was a small shakeout which created the liquidity needed to break out of the local TR. I continue seeing the emotionally bearish "analysts" finding new reasons why price MUST go down and stay down, but my reasons for it not doing so have remained unchanged throughout this year. The shakeout yesterday created a short TF double bottom by closing above the highest point between them. Based on the pattern, we should see price targeting the $6370 area. Doing so will bring price back up into the larger blue TR thereby confirming the drop four days ago was a spring on that TR (LPS on the larger TF black TR). In this case, we should expect price to continue up as it creates multiple LPS's in the blue TR, ultimately targeting the top of the larger TF black TR that's been in play for two months. This is also the R3 pivot on the 4H chart at $6587. There is the slight possibility that price will not continue to head upward toward the $6370 target since yesterday's high was pretty close to it at $6350 and pattern targets often don't play out exactly as drawn. The 4H OBV isn't convincing at this time, but that can change by the time the candle closes as the 15 minute OBV is showing us what I want to see -- upward movement. Yesterday's pop sent 4H RSI to the resistance line, but not through it. This kept it from printing bearish divergence. If you were watching my live stream yesterday morning, then you know that price has held almost perfectly within the quick potential flag I drew right after price popped. My bias based on the volume and price action is up rather than down at this time, but a close below the $6250/$6255 level will suggest possible lower movement and I may change my opinion at that time. As long as price remains above yesterday's swing low at $6199.25, traders have little reason to be concerned. As mentioned yesterday, two gaps remain on the 15 minute chart at $6291 and $6229. In most cases, price returns to fill the gaps but these particular gaps appear to be breakaway gaps (decisive movement, associated with heavy volume, out of the local TR) which means we don't usually expect them to fill as price is expected to continue moving in the direction of the breakaway. With all this in mind, if price plays out as a flag, then the expected target based on the flagpole is around $6460. This would put it at the top of the blue TR/4H R1 pivot. Currently this is the expected movement, as explained above, while price targets the top of the larger TF black TR. The 4H RSI is printing a flag right under resistance at the moment increasing support for the idea that price will continue higher. However, as always, nothing is guaranteed in trading so traders should utilize strong risk management. Price dropping below the swing low from yesterday sets up an initial target of the bottom of that same black TR at around $6094/4H S5 pivot. Overall, price remains within the larger two-month-old black TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of that TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
SHOCKING PROOFS: How Whales Manipulate THE BITCOIN-MARKET!Dear Friends :) I have the last couple of weeks, warned you again and again about extraordinary high manipulation in the Bitcoin-market (BTC/USD). I received earlier today a link on Twitter to a blog on Steemit, where a guy documents, how a group of whales are discussing, how to manipulate a market. I therefore decided to spent a lot of time to analyze the last 2 weeks of the BTCUSD-market. I have made a comparison between the last 2 weeks and Bitcoins Price movements in the past and also looked closer in to other traditional markets the last couple of weeks (with lower and higher Market Capitalization). Let's first define manipulation: Controlling someone or something to your own advantage, often unfairly or dishonestly. In this case, we are talking about whales with a lot of money (usually at least 5 % of the market) is taking advantage of traders with less money to gain more wealth. My Approach: This is only seen from a TA-perspective. I have looked at the 1h BTCUSD chart over 14 days. I have chosen to categorize 3 different ways whales have manipulated the market: 1. Bear traps (yellow circles). To bait traders to go SHORT hopefully with leverage, AND in a situation, where normal TA principles confirms a downtrend direction, where the whales hereafter use their power and money to go in the opposite direction with the purpose to liquidate SHORTS. 2. Bull Traps (red circles). To bait traders to go LONG hopefully with leverage, AND in a situation, where normal TA principles confirms an uptrend direction, where the whales hereafter use their power and money to go in the opposite direction with the purpose to liquidate LONGS. 3. Shake outs (orange magnifying glass). Sudden huge price movements in either direction, WHERE normal TA-principles not necessarily confirms a clear and certain direction. Also with the purpose to liquidate either SHORTS or LONGS to achieve more control in the market. I have furthermore used the following indicators to confirm a possible manipulation: - Volume by time (measured and compared to the MA20 volume) - The RSI (Relative Strength Index) Summary and conclusion: 1. Take notice of the long period of 14 days, where the RSI not* have been under 50, apart from the times where whales manipulated the market. We only had a period of 15 hours (look at the green rectangle) where it happened. This has never happened in this market before under similar circumstances. Usually we only see this in parabolic runs over some few days or if we make higher highs and lows in a market, which is going up in bids with not much fluctuations and usually not for that many days in a row. 2. The amount of manipulation is extremely high compared to other periods of 14 days. I have looked into at least 25 different periods of 14 days, and I haven't yet found a period with more manipulation. 3. April the 12th 2018 we had a Bitcoin-record, when it comes to volume by hour (Volume was higher than 24 times the MA20) and it appeared after a bear trap. 4. The number of times the RSI Level is above 70 is extremely high compared to a normal period of 14 days and very high to a similar uptrend period. What we can expect now As you can see, yesterday was the first time we came under RSI Level 50 again and stayed there without a manipulation, which took us higher. As I told you before, I also compared this situation with 2014, where we saw the crash. If this and the 2014-path continues, I have illustrated on the RSI what we will see. You can expect that we will continue go lower in price and the RSI stay under 50 (usually around 30-40) and when we try to go above RSI 50 you can expect that it is a bull trap. You also expect regular shake outs, and eventually it can result in a similar crash we saw in 2014. Let's hope the best for Bitcoin though! D4 Loves You <3 I would really appreciate A BIG like this time - I spent a lot of time with all the research :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by D4rkEnergY
474