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Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) To Hit 6,124 First, Then 8,660SSE had a rally from 2005 to 2007 establishing the all-time high of CNY 6,124. After that, the price had built a weird corrective structure with ups and downs fading in magnitude over a very long period of time. It took 17 years to complete the giant contracting triangle (white ABCDE marks). The pattern was broken to the upside this summer. This is the first harbinger of possible reversal and potential rally. The confirmation we wait is the breakup of the peak of wave D beyond CNY 3,724 The conservative target for the upcoming rally is located at the all-time high of CNY 6,124 The ultimate target is set at the equal distance of blue wave (A) in blue wave (C) at CNY 8,660
SSE:000001Long
by aibek
China Stocks: What to Expect When Markets Reopen Stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong took off last week and continued their climb on Monday, posting their best single-day rally in 16 years. This surge came after several announcements from Beijing aimed at boosting the country’s economy. But now, The Shanghai Stock Exchange will be closed from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7 for China’s National Day celebrations, and Hong Kong’s market will also shut on Oct. 1. However, U.S.-listed China ETFs will still be trading, so when the Chinese exchanges reopen on Oct. 7, we could see big moves as global investors get ahead of the Chinese market. China’s stock market is known for its wild swings, mainly because retail investors make up about two-thirds of the trading. That means we might see some significant volatility once the markets open back up.
H
by BlackBull_Markets
CSI300 BULL FLAG ON SUPPORT LOOKS PROMISING. BREAKOUT NEEDED❗️❗️CSI has honored the significant demand zone, suggesting a potential continuation in the rally. The price respecting this highlighted zone coincides with the formation of a bullish flag on lower timeframes, further bolstering our bullish expectations. Notably, a bullish breakout has been confirmed on the formed flag, potentially leading to a rally with the creation of a pullback. If sufficient volume and pressure emerge, there's a possibility of another bullish breakout on the trend line formed, which is crucial for validating our outlook.
SSE:000300Long
by traderchamp_
Ride the Japanese Wave, Don't Grab That China Falling KnifeIt was nearly three years ago when the China stock market notched a short-term peak. Recall how the world's second-largest economy was initially seen as a growth engine coming out of the worst of the pandemic. An authoritative regime in China, led by President Xi Jinping, crippled the economy's expansion trajectory through harsh ongoing lockdowns and by clamping down on many industries, one after another. Then in early 2023, hope sprang eternal that China would re-open amid a burst of consumer spending, a la what was seen during the 'revenge travel' period in the United States back in 2021 and 2022. That did not come to fruition, and the Hang Seng Index is now down by more than 50% in the last three years. With all that turmoil going on in China, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index has continued to soar. Up more than 20% since February of 2021, the once sleepy Tokyo stock market features among the best momentum readings of all countries. Based on these trends, sticking with the 'long Nikkei, short China' trade should keep working, in my view. Another way to play it is by being long developed market stocks and avoiding emerging market funds (which still have a roughly 20% allocation to China). Finally, while China trades at a single-digit P/E ratio today, Japan is by no means expensive. Goldman Sachs notes that the country's current 12-month forward earnings multiple is just 14.9, about average compared to its 20-year history (Asia-Pac ex-Japan is 12.3x, for perspective). Interestingly, Japan is back up to 6% of the global stock market allocation while China has sunk to just 3%. Perhaps it is indeed the land of the rising sun while China is a classic "sub"-merging market. A solid ETF to play Japan continues to be the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) which hedges exposure to the Japanese Yen. The ETF has a solid track record of outperforming other Japanese country funds.
TVC:HSILong
by mikezaccardi
1
London Metals Exchange Week 2023 reviewAs London Metals Exchange Week 2023 wraps up, we summarise some of the key observations for the state of the base metals in 2023 and what are likely to drivers for the markets going into 2024. Better than the macro data would indicate Despite the challenging macroeconomic backdrop especially in China, metal demand is holding up fairly well. Demand indicators are generally holding up better than macroeconomic data would suggest, indicating other forces are at play. The main diver of the discrepancy is likely to be the shift in demand for metals coming from the energy transition. The upside surprise in Chinese demand can be linked to accelerated grid spending in the country which is a metal intensive activity (Figure 1). China has ‘net zero’ ambitions and has been using this era of relatively low copper prices to accelerate the buildout of its grid infrastructure that will be essential for increasing the capacity of electric vehicles on its roads. More broadly, China’s piece-meal stimulus activity is starting to bear fruits. Aggregate financing to the real economy has turned a corner after several months of disappointment and is now rising faster than consensus expectations, which could bode well for further metal demand. It’s worth noting that copper demand in China had not fallen as much as aggregate financing data would have indicated (Figure 2). We believe the stimulus will continue to support the metals market into 2024, although we note that China has not yet offered a big ‘bazooka’ of a stimulus package yet. More metal supply in 2024 Markets are concerned that the supply outages in a range of metals could reverse course next year and therefore start to weigh on price. In its latest projections, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) now envisages a massive supply surplus of 467,000 tonnes in 2024 (previously 298,000 tonnes). This is thanks to a considerable expansion of refined copper production, especially in China, though new production capacities in Indonesia, India and the US are also set to contribute to nearly 5% year-on-year production growth in 2024. However, the group maintain a deficit forecast in 2023 in the order of 27,000 tonnes, albeit a narrower deficit compared to their April forecast of 114,000 tonnes. Other metal study groups (such as the International Nickel Study Group, International Lead and Zinc Study Group) that met the prior week also expect higher supplies. However, we note that a lot of European metal smelters that went offline during the energy crisis of 2022 are unlikely to come back. Furthermore, these forecasts are based on all planned production coming to the market, which is rarely the case. Usually a 1-2% supply disruption takes place and that has the potential to significantly alter the balance. Nickel oversupply spilling into Class 1 Market participants are increasingly worried about a Class 1 nickel oversupply in 2024. Indonesia’s mining and processing expansion has largely impacted Class 2 nickel. That is the material most suitable for meeting Chinese demand for nickel pig iron (NPI). High quality, Class 1 nickel, however, has been in a supply deficit in recent years. Class 1 has seen increasing demand from battery applications as electric vehicles expand production (and utilisation). However, conversion of Class 2 to Class 1 is looking increasingly economically feasible and Indonesia is at the forefront. There is even potential for a trade deal that could see Indonesian supply become Inflation Reduction Act compliant. That could see US battery demand be met by a new source of metal supply. At the same time, what was thought to be a localised shift to less nickel-intense battery technology in China, could become a more global trend. That is also a source of concern for the market. Market developments The London Metal Exchange (LME) Chief Executive Matthew Chamberlain announced at the main LME dinner that the LME has launched a new collaboration on product development with its Chinese rival, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). The announcement came after news last month that SHFE was looking into the possible launch of a nickel futures contract for international use. A much larger proportion of industrial nickel use today is Class 2 rather than Class 1. China is seen as the main venue for transactions in Class 2 nickel and should have a greater role in benchmark price formation. The Class 1 LME contract thus has a degree of disconnect with the bulk of current industrial use and therefore has been seen as an imperfect hedging tool. While the LME didn’t offer much detail about its collaboration with the SHFE, an obvious area for joint work is in nickel. Conclusions Overall, the mood at the LME week was sombre, not just because of the geopolitical events that took place the weekend before the event. However, many were surprised at the strength of current demand. As we have highlighted, commodities tend to be late-cycle performers and we are likely seeing that in play in the current economic cycle. The energy transition is adding further fuel to metal demand that could help the complex during otherwise challenging times if a perfect soft-landing is not achieved. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
EUREX:FCIN1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Shanghai Comp. (SSE) -> Please Pay AttentionMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️ I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise. This is how you build real long term wealth! In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Shanghai Composite. The Shanghai Composite index is the leading index of China and has been trading in a long term symmetrical triangle for more than 15 years. Considering the fact that SSE entered bullish into this triangle, I do expect a bullish breakout which could happen in the next 6-18 months and then I do expect a major move to the upside. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy. Keep the long term vision🫡
SSE:000001Long
by basictradingtv
12
Shanghai Stock Market (SSE Composite Index): A Closer LookThe Shanghai Stock Market is like a financial puzzle, and right now, it's showing us some interesting moves. First, the rise in the 10-year yield from 3-year lows suggests that there might be changing expectations about economic growth, inflation, or monetary policy. This could be due to a variety of factors such as improved economic prospects, inflation concerns, or changes in the global interest rate environment. The central bank also did something important by closing a 5-billion yuan money deal. It's like they're keeping a watchful eye on how money is moving around. On top of that, they pumped a massive 385 billion yuan into the system, which can make things more exciting. Now, let's talk about Ichimoku Cloud analysis. It's like a weather forecast for the stock market. Right now, it's showing that the market might be heading up, which is a positive sign. However, the cloud isn't very thick. This means we should be a bit cautious. There's another important sign on this chart. Tenkan points up, suggesting the market might go up soon, even though it's under Kijun resistance line. It's a bit like seeing a green light at an intersection, even if the other light is still red. So, as we decode these numbers and signals, it's clear that the Shanghai Stock Market is in a state of flux, with various factors at play. Investors will need to stay vigilant, considering both the data and the bigger economic picture to make informed decisions in the coming year.
SSE:000001
by TheAltcoinBuff
Bulllish Scenario for ETH Unlock The ETH unlock and current macroeconomics may result in a pullback in ETH's price in the coming days. It is crucial for investors to stay informed and make informed investment decisions. Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA: Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's, in-between or in Between Sell levels these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic. Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. FED Macro Situation Consideration: All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE I am not a financial advisor. The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
BINANCE:ETHUSDShort
by TheBitcoinGeneration
Ethereum Shanghai Upgrade - Potential ImpactThe Shanghai upgrade marks a significant milestone for the Ethereum network, enabling depositors to access their staked ETH for the first time since the launch of the Beacon Chain. With the upgrade, two main types of withdrawals will be possible: partial and full. Partial withdrawals, or skimming, will permit validators to withdraw their cumulative staking rewards, while full withdrawals will enable the complete withdrawal of staked ETH. This analysis aims to explore the potential implications of these withdrawals on the Ethereum economy and address concerns regarding the supply unlock event. Shanghai presents a unique situation where rewards have accumulated over two years and will be unlocked simultaneously. The excess balance, which is not actively participating in Proof-of-Stake, amounts to around 1.137M ETH or about $2.1B in value. After the Shanghai upgrade, this sum will be automatically withdrawn from the Beacon Chain and transferred to the depositor's Ethereum mainnet address as an automatic balance update. Validators with 0x00 withdrawal credentials own nearly 75% of the total accumulated rewards, while those with 0x01 credentials will have access to the remaining 25% (equivalent to 276k ETH). In an extreme scenario where all remaining validators update their withdrawal credentials after the Shanghai upgrade, we could see the entire sum of 1.137M ETH exit the Beacon Chain over 4.5 days. Considering the depositor segmentation, a significant portion of the staking rewards is expected to be locked up again, as large staking providers such as Lido have vowed to primarily re-stake their rewards. Furthermore, non-institutional depositors with more extensive holdings are less likely to feel pressure to sell their ETH, especially given the recent positive market trend. For full withdrawals, the daily number of validators that can exit is limited by the churn rate, which currently allows for a maximum of 1800 validators (or 57.6k ETH) to be withdrawn daily. Considering the withdrawal period determined by the churn limit, validators must pass through a withdraw-ability delay. This waiting period is 256 epochs for voluntarily exited validators, or around 27 hours long, and for slashed validators, it is 8192 epochs, or about 36 days. We have simulated the accumulated ETH accessible right after the Shanghai upgrade, approximately 45,098 ETH (equivalent to $83.3M). Most existing validators belong to solo-stakers or stakers from the early days of the Beacon Chain, who are likely to have a high conviction rate. Therefore, most withdrawals are expected to be related to changes in their technical setup rather than completely exiting their position. Considering partial and full withdrawals, we can model the potential supply pressure during the first week after the Shanghai upgrade. 1.54M ETH ($2.93B) could become liquid in the most extreme case. On the other hand, based on a 50% withdrawal credential update, segmentation of depositors, and different assumptions, our best estimate suggests that 170k ETH ($323M) could be sold. Comparing these numbers to typical weekly exchange inflow volumes, even the most extreme case of 1.53M ETH is within the average weekly exchange inflow range. This indicates that the unlock event is on a similar scale to day-to-day trade for ETH markets and is unlikely to be as dire as many speculate it to be. In conclusion, while it is impossible to predict the outcomes of the Shanghai upgrade fully, this analysis provides insights into the potential economic implications of the supply unlock event. The bulk of unlocked staking rewards is expected to come from users redeploying towards liquid staking providers, which have little need to sell due to being underwater. Moreover, Ethereum's Proof-of-Stake exit queue design will limit the amount of stake that can be drained from the pool at once, stretching the economic impact over days. This piece was the summary of this analysis by Glassnode. If you want to read the full analysis, read this: insights.glassnode.com
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by BitcoinMacro
Trade Alert - Take ProfitTraders, Are you beginning to sense that I am unsure of what will happen in the next week or so in the altcoin space? This is true. While I am fairly certain that Bitcoin will pullback at some point in the future to either retest our HKEX:25 ,200 level or, just above that, the 50 day ma - I am less certain as to how altcoin will react to BTC if it does pullback. In the past, during bear markets, altcoins have always exaggerated any move to the downside during a bear market. We are still in a bear market and with tomorrow's Shanghai upgrade on the Eth network which unlocks millions, I am just not sure how alts will respond. For me it's better to capture any profits I have while I have them and to wait until I see proper setup forming again for re-entry. You can see APE is up into resistance here at the 50 day. I sold. I have also sold Audio and Matic for now and am in cash at the moment. Stew
COINBASE:APEUSD
by stewdamus
Trade Alert - Take ProfitTraders, Admittedly, I may still be a bit skittish in this bear market. Maybe I am being too cautious? But with tomorrow's Shanghai upgrade on Ethereum happening tomorrow in which millions of Eth will be unlocked AND with this latest candle forming what could end up being a bearish shooting star, I am happy to take my profits here and wait it out. Closing this trade will bring out win streak to 14 in a row. Congrats to all those who have been following me in these recent trades! Stew
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by stewdamus
#Ethereum Firm, ETH Buyers Angling For $2,000Past Performance of Ethereum Ethereum buyers are confident, reading from the performance in the daily chart. There are encouraging higher highs as ETH claws higher, presently trading at the Q3 2022 trade range. Even though there was a cool-off, ETH will likely bounce higher ahead of the Shanghai upgrade. #Ethereum Technical Analysis The path of least resistance is northwards. Notice that prices are above February 2023 highs of HKEX:1 ,750, and the retest in March didn't force prices lower. The rebound in late March propelled prices to spot rates, a huge positive for optimistic buyers. Per the current ETH candlestick arrangement, every low above April 4 bull bar at HKEX:1 ,800 may offer entries with targets at HKEX:1 ,950 and later HKEX:2 ,000. This preview will only change should there be a sharp dump, with rising volumes, below the middle BB and HKEX:1 ,800 in the next few days. What to Expect from #ETH? As it is, traders are confident of what lies ahead. The psychological reaction point at HKEX:2 ,000 remains unchallenged, but that could change if the upcoming fundamental event draws buyers. Resistance level to watch out for: HKEX:1 ,950 Support level to watch out for: HKEX:1 ,800 Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
Long
by Bitcoin_Analyzer
1
BTC.D at resistance... time for Alts to shine? BTC.D is clearly at the top of this macro range. USDT.D is also dropping. This means we may see a mini alt season as alts follow BTC's recent rally. One counter-argument is ETH Shanghai update - Lots of staked ETH will be (is?) getting unlocked, which could create a lot of sell pressure. Some very crypto/finance savvy friends are shorting ETH here. ETH makes up a huge % of TOTAL2 (altcoin market cap), so if ETH does start selling off, this idea will be invalidated, USDT.D will pump instead, and alts will bleed. Good luck out there... Happy trades CD
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by cryptodonovan
History doesn’t repeat, but it does often rhyme!So far I’d say we’re leaning more towards repeating. Coming into the local resistance around the same time as the Shanghai upgrade. Will that be the catalyst to slow this rally down? Sending ETH back down to confirm the June 2022 lows as support, and play out exactly like the bear market of 2019? If so, it will be about the same time from the local top to the next Bitcoin halving 11 to 12months. Shockingly similar if you ask me and makes total sense. Perfect price action. To accumulate into the always bullish for all of crypto, the BTC halving. Good luck everyone and be careful!
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by tbyrnes8844
4
Shanghai upgrade: to the moon or not?Ethereum is an amazing project: the team's ability to stay on the road map and stick to the original plans has always been impressive. Even this one thing makes you stay bullish on $ETH in the long run. Earlier we posted idea about the Shanghai upgrade and we predicted local growth until March. Now let's check things out in a current situation First of all, we should understand that long-term theses are only good in a bull market, or when most participants are also thinking in the long term. That's why we shouldn't expect a crazy rise right after the Shanghai upgrade. The Shanghai Upgrade is scheduled to be implemented on the Sepolia test network on February 28, 2023 . Tentatively Shanghai should be released on mainnet a few months after Sepolia (July-August) Let’s remember that the main feature of the Shanghai Upgrade for the user will be the ability to output steak ETH. Here’s some statements why you shouldn’t wait for ‘to the moon’ right after the upgrade: Some of the users who have entered at the price of ETH below the current one may want to take profit Some of the users who have entered at the prices equal to the current one, may want to secure their positions and fix the token stack they have forged Some users who have entered at the prices higher than the current one may want to take their losses back Thanks for reading, share your point of view about ETH and stay with us!
by Samura0x
12
China: Back to the Grind (SHORT)China: Morgan Stanley scenario: Chinese stock indexes could plunge by another 20% from current levels over the next six to 12 months — and potentially remain lower for much longer if the hypothetical stress scenario persists. China’s GDP could slow drastically, averaging 2% growth in 2023. More than 11 million people could lose their jobs, likely sending the urban unemployment rate above 7%. Construction, accommodation and catering would see the most job cuts.
0Short
by SWFguy
Staking and the Shanghai upgrade: What expect from Ethereum?Staking has become the primary way to earn profitability for validation and network support since Ethereum switched to a Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism. The Shanghai update, which will allow users to withdraw their staked ETH, is scheduled to be released in March 2023. In this idea, we will look at the current state of staking and what to expect in the nearest future. The main disadvantages of native staking are as follows: While your Ethereum is staked, you must keep it locked up and cannot use it for anything else; Staking is inefficient in terms of capital usage because the staking fee is only calculated on 32 locked ETH. This means that if you stake 32 ETH and grow it up to 34 ETH with rewards, the rewards will only be applied to the original 32 ETH. This renders a portion of your capital ineffective; You cannot withdraw your ETH until the Shanghai update is released. To address these concerns, liquid staking protocols have emerged on the market. We will go over these in details below. According to PnL Staker Data, 66.5% of stakers are currently losing money because the price of ETH when they staked it was higher than the current price. The highest peak of staking for users at a loss occurred in the $2500-$3500 price range. Given the minimum staking size of 32 ETH, these users have suffered significant losses, and many may choose to withdraw their ineffective staked ETH to minimize or avoid these losses. There are currently 500,000 active validators working on Ethereum, and the total staked balance is 16 million ETH (13% of the total supply of ETH), with one validator's average balance being around 34 ETH. Some key takeaways from this information are: Currently, there are about 1 million inefficient ETHs worth approximately $1.5 billion; The average daily trading volume of ETH is around $6-7 billion; The ineffective volume of ETH will take 8-10 days to withdraw. Each epoch lasts 6.4 minutes, has 256 withdrawal transactions, and we have 225 epochs per day. So, what can we expect from Ethereum in the future? Based on current market conditions, the Federal Reserve's softer rhetoric, positive CPI data, and a negative news agenda leading up to March 2023 (when the final damages from the FTX collapse will be assessed and Mt. Gox users will receive their payments), Ethereum, like the rest of the market, is likely to experience local growth until March. However, we are likely to see a market decline around March 10-20, which will be influenced by the Shanghai update. The 8-10 days required to restore capital efficiency for Ethereum stakeholders will put downward pressure on the price. If the overall market is positive and investors are willing to buy, we can anticipate further growth following this period of decline. On the other hand, if the market is more negative and traders are driven by greed, we may see cascading liquidations and a new fall in the market. Write in a comment section your opinion whether it will be a further growth or a new fall in the market and also share with us please your thoughts about our ideas. We are a fast-growing derivative exchange and we would like to share our ideas and provide society with a high-quality information to read and to talk about. So that's why we need feedback from you. Check our previous ideas and thanks for your time!
by Samura0x
6
YANG - China Bear Fund 3x leverageThere are numerous headwinds to the Chinese economy and normally I would say the CCP would be able to manipulate the mechanisms needed to keep stability, but not this time. This time it is different due to conflicting policies and factors outside of their control. You have their 0 Cov policy which is causing widespread business disruption as the Chinese vaccine dose not seem effective against omicron and B.A2 variant. You have them needing to strengthen the yuan due to the dollar ripping higher by selling USD but, they need the dollars to service debts and there is a dollar liquidity crisis which means they need to hold on to every dollar they can. You have the ag sector not fully recovered from decimating their swine herd due to Swine Fever and crops disrupted due to last year's flooding plus a global fertilizer shortage. Finally you have it as a bet that an autocratic regime, governed by a single man who has a record of shooting the messenger, to not respond to economic crisis nimbly, imaginatively and effectively. Entry over the week of 4/25, averaged in at 20.40. Good luck and god speed.
AMEX:YANGShort
by SloppySeconds
3