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Shanghaicomposite

ridethepig | SHCOMP Market Commentary 2020.08.26📌 A quiet few weeks and enjoying the last few days of summer before things get very active in markets for the rest of the year and into 2021. Global Equity buyers received their reward for their braveness play: overshoots are a weakness. See diagram below. The mysterious 2650 lows were held from the Giant Panda (PBOC), when retail threatened the attack down to make the recovery difficult the monetary side played the defence. At the same time, it also makes the inevitable far worse as the energy needed to get back to 2750/2650 is minimal. The book is very thin. Buyers have made good use of the swing higher, ignoring Covid cases and deaths and totally looking through US/China protectionism. Sellers have played the waiting game and distributed on the test of resistance 3400/3350: Prepare for a parry away as the ever present threat of covid approaches and puts further lockdown threats in play. The risk of a full blown monetary crisis has put Equities under permanent threat as the weakness comes from confidence. If consumers are not confident enough to return, or will question if clients are even able to meet, then it will not matter the amount of stimulus as the issue is far bigger than central banks. A strong move here would be to push the tempo and threaten the immediate breakdown. Live portfolio flows and chart updates resuming as 'normal' from Jackson tomorrow. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
SShort
by ridethepig
6
China plummets as data shows patched recoveryAfter a 24% rally in their stock market from the start of July, the Shanghai Composite index saw a sharp reversal down 17% as data shows a patched recovery in China. Bloomberg reporting industrial output was lower by 1.3% while retail sales plummeted 11.4%, showing strong weakness in the consumer, which use to be the backbone of many economies. Michelle Lam, China economist at Societe General SA in Hong Kong, stated that the recovery was “driven by credit stimulus as evident in the strong infrastructure and property investment, while the recovery in sales in retail sales and private investment has continued to lag.” It is interesting to note that the strong infrastructure and property investment gains are on the back of the PBOC’s wary of cutting rates earlier in the year when the Coronavirus hits. In favour of a more direct approach, China issued bonds, facilitated direct lending and lowered the reserve ratio required for banks to provide liquidity into the money markets. These measures injected more than 1.7 Trillion Yuan ($220 Billion) of liquidity into the money markets. This is a stark contrast to how 38 other central banks around the world tackled the Coronavirus early this year by slashing interest rates. Michelle continues, stating that “Policymakers will probably save bullets and hold back broad-back easing and find the current growth trajectory acceptable.” This sentiment is backed by Ma Jun, a PBOC adviser, stating that “the PBOC doesn’t use all its bullets at once. China has plenty of room in monetary policy.” China has been giving investors something to cling on to The recent bull run has given many Chinese retail traders great euphoria. Bloomberg documented Min Hang, who opened her trading account, stating that “There is no way I can lose” and that “ feels invincible.” The rally added $1 Trillion of value in the span of 8 days, topping China’s equity market valuation to 10 trillion – the top of the bubble in 2015. However, being known as the world’s manufacturer, China continues upward hinges on the global economy to recover. Ding Shuang, chief economist for China and North Asia at Standard Chartered, stated that Coronavirus around the world continues to affect businesses around the world, which “may weaken demand for China’s goods and services and is the main risk facing China’s economy.” This highlights a significant problem with Globalization: Dependency with all the other markets. Amid a trade war between China and the United States, Globalization faces an imminent threat akin to mutually assured destruction. With both countries’ interests in the forefront of their foreign policy, they are blinded to the fact that in this day in age their rely on each other more than they give each other credit for. Are you riding China’s bull market?
OANDA:CN50USD
by BlackBull_Markets
Shanghai: Still some upside before profit taking kicks in.SHCOMP has formed a Golden Cross on the 1D chart turning vastly overbought (RSI = 89.841, MACD = 105.710, ADX = 52.201). Last time that took place within the long-term Channel Up that started in January 2019, the market consolidated for a few days and delivered a last peak in a month. The MACD has entered into this red Resistance Zone of the 2019 consolidation, so there are high probabilities that investors won't close massively positions and let profits run a little higher towards the 3,580 2 year Resistance (January 2018 Top). ** If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
S
by InvestingScope
1
Major Highs Cooking for Chinese Equities!📍 In this position, after clearing the knee-jerk reaction from covid flows we are starting to enter into chapter II, heavy protection. The flows have shown strength in drastic fashion; the apparently bottomless wallet of keynsian economics - suddenly showing a surprising amount of animation! You can see the impact of PBOC on Chinese Equities here: ...and now buyers had a simple win by testing the 2983 highs. The retrace idea was as follows; overprotecting a strategically important structure. The reward was to open up a retest of the support which was an all embracing struggle for the PBOC: In the long run, the positional struggle from CB's will come down to a struggle between healthcare on one hand and restraining capitalism on the other. It is extremely important to strive for re-openings in sensible fashion since the virus is still in circulation and lusts to expand. Health crisis cannot be solved with throwing money at it... not enough time has elapsed so the Stan Erck pump and dump we are watching with Novavax is set to flop and sadly put the final nail in the coffin for Global Equities. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
SShort
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | SHCOMP Market Commentary 2020.02.24A bloodbath across most of Asia with SHCOMP managing to hold via PBOC intervention. Actively sold the Tokyo close as red alerts have been triggered across Global EQ Index. Those familiar with the current technical flows we are tracking will remember the PBOC dip; it was a classic example of CB intervention in attempt to stop the bleeding. The issue is that markets want to test the limits, CV is showing no signs of abating and the impact is still yet to be seen in earning and growth figures. We have retraced back to the last breakdown point and selling has begun as if a new crisis is here... Good luck all those on the sell-side in equities, a major move in the making if things do not get under control within days on the virus front. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!!
SShort
by ridethepig
4
UVXY Waiting For Negative Macro Catalyst, THEN Huge PUMP!We have a very large descending triangle on the monthly! Playing this out will depend on some continuation of negative news (such as Coronavirus vaccines not working), global recession, etc. The Chinese economy is on the verge of recession, they have a fake economy built on a deck of cards that's ready to fall. If you don't think China is fake as F*&k with economic reporting, then go buy yourself a ghost city apartment.
AMEX:UVXYShort
by ChartProphet
8
Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) On Decision Level SSE has reached a key pivot point. a conjunction of a major falling trendline and horizontal structure constitute a decision level for the market. taking into consideration current fundamental sentiment, the market will most likely go south! our confirmation will be a bearish breakout of a rising trendline! incase of a bearish breakout the market will reach 2750 & 2500 levels! good luck! please, support the idea with like and comment! thank you!
SSE:000001Short
by VasilyTrader
2