Shanghai Index: Buy the pull back.The Shanghai Composite Index has seen a considerable rise since the start of the year, which we predicted in December ( ). The parabolic rise on 1D has reached past the overbought zone (RSI hitting 80.000) and as it got close to the 0.500 Fibonacci retracement level (3,015), we should start see it consolidating. The strongest candidate for a pull back however is the 0.618 level (3,150). We are willing to buy any such pull back and target the 0.786 level at 3,340.
See below how we predicted this +22% rise in December:
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Shanghaicomposite
time to load up on china? Shanghai composite breaking out of its 12 months downtrend channel with a bullish divergence.
SHCOMP How long is the divergence willing to last?The Shanghai Composite reflects the real situation that we are facing up. The S&P 500 completely out of mind in that perspective. Are we approaching a reversal movement in both indexes? Indeed, one of them has a lot of chances rather than the other. Which one is willing to turn over first?
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SHCOMP could drop furtherThe lackluster demand for Asian dollar bonds (ADB) is likely to recover as investors who shunned weaker quality notes during the turbulent final quarter of 2018 now see them as too cheap to ignore. This indicates investors will take money out of SCI and invest into ADB junk bonds
Is this the right time to start buying Chinese stocks?Since the all time highs in 2007 the Shanghai Composite has not recovered those levels failing on successive Lower Highs. This has created a Triangle pattern on the Monthly chart with Higher Lows. We can't be sure which trend line has to be followed to mark the new Higher Low as both have valid grounds. In any case, the index is approaching its long term technical low, which was either on October's 2,449.20 or will be near 2,100. 2,500 is currently the MA200 period on the monthly chart, so there are more chances to see the recovery starting now. Our early estimates place the long target at 4,380.
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Short Shanghai Composite (Bull trap falling below wedge)The index fell below the breakout pattern and retested the lower TL and held. To add more downside exposure if you see the rally.
Chinese stocks under severe pressure from global risk => Market turmoil is creating its own negative feedback loops for China driving further tightening financial conditions that will last and have further effects on the economic growth in the region.
=> It seems unlikely to open the floodgates to a recession so far however further trade tensions between the US and China will add to fragility.
=> Targets in Chinese stocks remain at 2400 after the technical break of the 76.4% retracement.
=> Good luck all
China Long, near termSHCOMP broke out of falling wedge and is bouncing of severe support. Will expect it to go back up to test long term pennant resistance.
Shanghai Composite Index - China is in a bear market?Shangai Composite Index is moving bearish. More falls are expected.
China Stock Market (11/2/18) *BEAR Baby!We should look at the development in China stock market.
When many people are still in denial stage, we have hit our first TP.
It is due for a decent continuous sell down.
For now, it may rebound back up to 13,221 level but it shall go down a lot further.
I am looking for short only at this moment.
Trade Safe
s0nic
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SHCOMP****We're getting closer to the bottom?SHA stock index is getting closer to our estimated bottom entry, according to our previous analysis on Feb 19.
Have you got ready to buy?
Shanghai Composite - weekly wedge - Multi supply zone and weekly bearish wedge
- Price needa breakout here or it looks pretty bearish in longer term
Shanghai composite -rejected at trendline again and same megaphone pattern acting as resistance
- 3400-3500 is strong resistance zone
China A50 Stock Index (9/10/17) *Big move to unfold after 18/10Now China's Golden holiday is over but we still have CCP congress, it is to start from 18 Oct.
It is gonna be THE event of the year as china will be having their own version of game of thrones.
All the Chinese markets shall go sideways (or) bullish mode for now.
What I am interested is what comes after that.
I am seeing that 11,800 level can be easily retested.
If the level is broken strongly,more bearish forces will come in.
The sell scenario shall be more likely by then, as the congress is over and there is no reason for further manipulation or holding on stocks.
It will mirror the movement of HK index as well.
Trade Safe,
s0nic
Disclaimer :
This analysis is purely based on technical analysis
Trading foreign currencies can be a challenging and potentially profitable opportunity for investors. However, before deciding to participate in the Forex market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.
Shanghai Composite: Bear Flag Was BrokenThe minimum target is the previous major low at 1665.
The risk is above the peak within the Bear Flag at 3305.
