Harmony100 trades crypto series
Starting date: 9/August/2021
Day 8
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $747
(all trading ideas in the series with commentary and outcome can be found on my profile)
GENERAL:
Coin is in a bull trend, but in excess price.
Scenario 1 - trend resumption. Even if it is possible, because we are in a bull trend, the formation of spike and channel are apparently converting in a trading range.
Scenario 2 - Downtrend. After strong bull run, instant downtrend is probably not going to happen, as the trend wasn't too overextended.
Scenario 3 - Trading range. I think it is the most probable scenario, because bull trend is getting weaker and bull channel is converting into the trading range. Big bear bars forming. Because big bear bars formed it might take some before price decides it's direction. The best way to trade this is to scalp for quick profits.
Sharkethics
DENT100 trades crypto series
Starting date: 9/August/2021
Day 5
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $700
(all trading ideas in the series with commentary and outcome can be found on my profile)
Bulls way too overextended.
Short run bear expected. If the price continued to go up, would have scaled in higher.
Exit: too early.
END of the week 1.
Starting balance 500$
Trades made - 27
Winners - 17
Loosers - 10
Current balance 747$
Success rate 62%
Sunday rest/review day. Continue on Monday.
ZRX100 trades crypto series
Starting date: 9/August/2021
Day 5
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $700
(all trading ideas in the series with commentary and outcome can be found on my profile)
BULL view:
-Moving back to fair value zone
-Break of the bear resistance
-Strong bull BO
-Broke above higher low
Bear view:
Short term bear trend can still be in tact with a deeper correction
AXS100 trades crypto series
Starting date: 9/August/2021
Day 4
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $583
Trade nr. 19
(all trading ideas in the series with commentary and outcome can be found on my profile)
Bearish view:
-Trading range, so bought rejection of the top considering that probability is to reach the bottom of the range.
Bull view:
-Bear weren't able to push lower, so exited early.
-Prevailing trend - bull, so it is usually better to buy the bottom in a TR, than to sell the top.
SKL100 trades crypto series
Starting date: 9/August/2021
Day 4
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $700
Trade nr. 18
(all trading ideas in the series with commentary and outcome can be found on my profile)
BULLISH VIEW:
Back above lower line of fair value price
BEARISH VIEW:
Resumption of a prevailing short term bear trend
Conclusion:
Exited prematurely, not even S/L was hit (sticking to the plan especially on a bull run on a bigger time frame.
ADA100 trades crypto series
Starting date: 9/August/2021
Day 4
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $583
Trade nr. 17
(all trading ideas in the series with commentary and outcome can be found on my profile)
BEARISH VIEW:
- Rejection from downtrend channel resistance
- Overall short term bearish sentiment
BULLISH VIEW:
-Bottom was in exactly of the retracement of 50%
-3 pushes down, bigger retracement of the downtrend possible.
In general it was a surprise breakout
XRP100 trades crypto series
Starting date: 9/August/2021
Day 4
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $583
Trade nr. 17
(all trading ideas in the series with commentary and outcome can be found on my profile)
Unfortunate stop at the very top.
Bull bars at present so not particularly strong reversal. As seen it formed double top with a second bull leg.
ZRX100 trades crypto series
Starting date: 9/August/2021
Day 4
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $583
Trade nr. 16
(all trading ideas in the series with commentary and outcome can be found on my profile)
BULLISH VIEW:
-Broken above multiple resistances (local downtrend, local resistance of fair value - pink channel)
-Quite strong rally
-Broke above LH of the prevailing trend - HH trend reversal.
BEARISH VIEW:
-Still a possibility of a bear flag.
Initial target - control price as well as local tops.
Second target, top of the channel of fair value.
TRX100 trades crypto series
Starting date: 9/August/2021
Day 4
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $583
Trade nr. 15
(all trading ideas in the series with commentary and outcome can be found on my profile)
As bitcoin sentiment turned a little bit to the bearish side all my today's trades were SHORT.
Also I was luck enough to catch the BTC market cap dominance rising in a short term which was also a good indicator that alts will bleed.
BEARISH VIEW:
-Possible H&S formation - HH and then LH trend reversal
-On a HTF, price is in excess, above fair value.
(Fair value - pink zone).
Took profit at fair value's upper line (acts as support).
EOS100 trades crypto series
Starting date: 9/August/2021
Day 4
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $583
Trade nr. 14
(all trading ideas in the series with commentary and outcome can be found on my profile)
As bitcoin sentiment turned a little bit to the bearish side all my today's trades were SHORT.
Also I was luck enough to catch the BTC market cap dominance rising in a short term which was also a good indicator that alts will bleed.
As I am looking now, it is probably the weakest trade I made, because of the many bullish points.
BEARISH VIEW:
-Mega strong selloff made me believe that we are going down.
-bear flag
BULLISH VIEW:
-Strong bull wicks at the bottom of the range
-Strong support zone (blue line) haven't been breached (only have by wicks)
-Might convert to a trading range instead of another leg down.
From the retrospect, the stop was incorrect, but i decided to extend my stop/loss manually and see what will happen (decided to risk some more money)
Better entry probably would be at the 50% retracement rejection.
LTC100 trades crypto series
Starting date: 9/August/2021
Day 4
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $583
Trade nr. 13
(all trading ideas in the series with commentary and outcome can be found on my profile)
As bitcoin sentiment turned a little bit to the bearish side all my today's trades were SHORT.
Also I was luck enough to catch the BTC market cap dominance rising in a short term which was also a good indicator that alts will bleed.
BEARISH view:
-Strong bear move, another leg down expected.
-Big pink channel represents a fair price area of the bigger TF. As you can see at the top price was in excess and it was a super strong rejection by bears signaling that we might go down to at least a control price (middle dashed line).
BULLISH view:
I was afraid that it might be a trading range (light blue channel and it might reach the top of that range (which would have hit my stop/loss. But eventually it played out OK.
LUNA100 trades crypto series
Starting date: 9/August/2021
Day 4
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $583
Trade nr. 12
(all trading ideas in the series with comentary and outcome can be found on my profile)
As bitcoin sentiment turned a little bit to the bearish side all my today's trades were SHORT.
Also I was luck enough to catch the BTC market cap dominance rising in a short term which was also a good indicator that alts will bleed.
Bought 50% retracement of the previous leg down.
Cluster of support acted as resistance.
This is probably one the minority of the trades where the S/L is actually correct.
I tend to open positions with too tight of the stop loss. When stop loss is tight, risk is lower (you lose less if the stop is hit) but probability of success is also much lower.
Also, because the risk is higher with wider stop/loss - position size should be calculated accordingly. That actually doesn't affect my position, as I always using 2% risk. Sometimes if my stop is very far, I would open only 25-50% of the full position (calculated by risk) and scale in if it goes against me.
As you can see here R:R is only 1.27, but probability of going down probably at least 60%, which makes positive traders equation.
RVN100 trades crypto series
Starting date: 9/August/2021
Day 4
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $583
Trade nr. 11
(all trading ideas in the series with comentary and outcome can be found on my profile)
As bitcoin sentiment turned a little bit to the bearish side all my today's trades were SHORT.
Also I was luck enough to catch the BTC market cap dominance rising in a short term which was also a good indicator that alts will bleed.
BEARISH VIEW:
-Tight bear channel
-mega rally of this coin made me believe that bigger correction is in tact.
BULLISH VIEW:
-75% of bear channels will eventually break upside, which we can see later in the in this downtrend.
However after such a strong leg down, at least double top can be expected
Cardano100 trades crypto series
Starting date: 9/August/2021
Day 4
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $583
Trade nr. 10
(all trading ideas in the series with commentary and outcome can be found on my profile)
As bitcoin sentiment turned a little bit to the bearish side all my today's trades were SHORT.
Also I was lucky enough to catch the BTC market cap dominance rising in a short term which was also a good indicator that alts will bleed.
BEARISH VIEW:
-Bearish channel forming. We didn't know that at the time, but eventually it appeared to be true.
-Weak RSI
-On a higher TF, price was well above fair value - in excess. Price expected to go a little bit further to reach the upper line of fair value.
BULLISH VIEW:
-Plenty of wicks at the bottom of the forming channel there are quite some bulls left.
-2 legs down, might be the end of the short term correction.
-Bulls can possibly test the top of the range, which means I would get stopped out as the stop loss is quite tight.
Initially I wasn't sure about profit target point, but as it can be seen from the chart final TP coincides with both 0.382 fib correction level of the previous big bull wave and also perfectly coincides with measured move from the last leg down.
AXS100 trades crypto series
Starting date: 9/August/2021
Day 3
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $574
Trades made - 10
(all trading ideas in the series with comentary and outcome can be found on my profile)
BEAR VIEW:
-Entered on a strong bear breakout (bear candle closed on it's low)
-Apparently it was a final bull flag with visible rejections, signaling that bears are getting strength
-Strong rejection candle at the top of the range, signaling bear trend might be commencing
-Extended bull rally (bigger correction expected)
-Bearish divergence on RSI (HH on prices LH on RSI)
BULL VIEW:
-At the time of buying it is not clear if it is a bear trend or trading range.
-Formation of broad bull channel also still a possibility at the time of entry
Position size: 5 AXS
Risk:2%
RVN100 trades crypto series
Starting date: 9/August/2021
Day 3
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $526
Trades made - 9
(all trading ideas in the series with comentary and outcome can be found on my profile)
BEAR:
-Biggest candle late in a short term trade signaling that it might be an exhaustion candle followed by selling
- Overextended bull run, profit taking by bulls inevitable in a short term
-bears opening short seeing such a parabolic move, they know that bull will take profit at some point soon.
BULL:
-TREND is in tact, so pullback might be brief (one candle for example)
This is a high risk/high reward trade trying to catch the top.
Initial target is the open of the last bull bar, which is 1:3 Risk to reward.
If bears won't be able to push lower, will there is a possibility to 2:1, otherwise will manage on the go.
In such strong upside moves, retracements are brief so profit taking at 30% retracement of final wave is reasonable thing to do.
SKL100 trades crypto series
Day 2
Starting capital: $500
Capital at present: $526
Trades made - 8
BULL:
-Another leg up likely after strong breakout
BEAR:
-tight trading range on 5min - hard to make money
-possibility of deeper retracement to 0.328 or 50% before resuming
skunk stop (stop/loss is way too tight and furthermore, position is way too big. Unjustified stop loss means more risk. It is a low probability bet.
LUNABULL:
-Very strong upside move on a lower TF. Pullback expected to be brief.
-Higher lows forming
-On a higher TF it is still a bull trend, so probably better slightly more probability, that bigger trend is resuming?
-Healthy RSI
BEAR:
- Even though it is a bull trend and broad bull channel, there is a strong resistance from the previous fair value channel lower line.
-Previous fair value channel lower boundary coincides with present bull channel upper line to form strong resistance.
ERRORS:
Stop/loss too tight, should beat least at the level of the last HL.
Target is quite steep. Not unrealistic, but the position should be managed on the go.