NKLA - 2 Different Long-Term WavecountsWe have 2 different primary counts on NKLA.
The first would have us assume that the recent downturn from $3.71 to $0.81 was all the downside we'll see. However, the structure for this move leaves no obvious evidence that it was the complete correction. Hence why I left a (2)? at the base of that move. If this is a full complete correction, 0.81 cents was the low, we'll never see lower.
The second wave count, has as assume that move first move down was merely leg A in a multi-month A-B-C correction, which would end in us seeing lows lower then $0.81, potentially even as low as $0.65.
Please note, I am truly unsure of which scenario could play out. Especially since institutions have been LOADING UP on NKLA over the past month.
Both Wave Counts Have The Same Next Move
Whether the first or second wave count, both have their next moves being set on the blue-line you see on-chart. With a swift move to test the $1.60-$1.70 range, followed by a pullback only to see $2+.
Comment if you have any questions or simply to appreciate my work :)
TL;DR
2 Different scenarios, both have the bluelines as likely to happen in the near-term, one has the redline to happen after.
ALSO: Please note we have bullish divergences on 6 different indicators on the daily chart. VERY likely we bottom here.
Sharpe
TTOO - Temporary Bottom LikelyThrough deceitfulness of the current CEO regarding a surprise share split, the stock has seen a lot of damage recently.
However, keep in mind that in order for shorts to make their money/profit. They need liquidity to exit their trade. There's a ton at this level given VPR, that combined with the 0.886 Fib level, we're definitely at the max pain zone. Highly likely that shorts are exiting their positions in mass near this level.
We're looking at an initial strong response of buying pressure due to mass shorts exiting + some high risk long entries, second move will be likely to a mix of short squeezing and new opportunistic buyers after seeing a solid higher low on the daily level.
THIS ENTIRE PLAN IS INVALIDATED IF TTOO CEO COMES OUT AND ANNOUNCES PLANS FOR MORE SHARE DILUTION.
CVNA - EXPANDED OR RUNNING FLATPreviously, I had put a rather bold prediction calling a shot term top when CVNA first hit the $28.50 price range.
Obviously, you cannot make a full prediction on how a correctional will play out, the most common of which are A-B-C setups. This is setup to be an expanded or running type of flat correctional.
Based on the key trend-line we have yet to test, my money would be on some form of long-drawn out running flat on the come-down followed by a decent surge once bears fail to take it down below the lower $21 price range.
Bears BewareThe S&P 500 is setup in a third wave extension, likely to burn out around the 448 range. The pullback to follow this will likely start out slow as bulls pull back their bids overall. Expecting this pullback to proceed to the $422-$428 range in early-mid august. I am best at predicting what, not when. Trend lines do great help in trying to assess the pace of the wave-count.
This pullback will be the setup for one last bullish reclaim that could have us seeing as far as $460 before this correctional is completely finished up. This is one of the largest most substantial correctional waves we've ever seen on the S&P 500.
BTC- First WaveIt's so hard to fit this idea in a digestible way that can be viewed well. I've opted to just posting the most relevant part first and as we develop and update our count I'll post pictures till we're out of wave 1.
CURRENT STATE: MICRO COUNT - WAVE 2 (5 WAVES TOTAL)
We've got ourselves a nice little expanded flat it appears, the 1.618 extensions also line up perfectly with the VPR zone ($27,935) Honestly found my count to be very surprising especially on the eve of such bullish news for Bitcoin. But this is just the technical/wave count view.
Our long-term overall price target is still $40,000 for our main count linked in the idea attached.
Technical Notes
- Volatility we're expecting doesn't fit very well with the auto chart and I suppose I'm a bit to lazy to make the proper adjustments.
- No local trend lines so we're flying a little blind on the timeline of this move.
- VERY STRONG CORRELATION OF VPR + 1.618 EXTENSION!
This means this move is highly likely. Expecting it to happen rather rapidly.
BTC - Price will Bleed UPTIMELINE HERE IS NOT ACCURATE MOST LIKELY.
Separate posts will be made as we make each micro-wave for short-term predictions on how they'll most likely pan out. Maybe just plan on using this as a long-term guide/hub to all the other ideas I'll eventually link to this original one.
It was difficult to find relevant trend lines here so finding a timeline for the expected actions was difficult. The announcement of the largest securities brokers in America coming together to make a crypto exchange is indeed game-changing and will likely spark a significant rapid impulsive 5th wave extension likely to burn out around the $40,000 level.
Technical Notes
- The first wave was an expanded flat, so wave 4 did not enter the price territory of wave 1.
- The ABC count is so incredibly highly speculative just putting in their as an example of some idea of what I expect to see
-I do not expect price to follow these blue lines with any closeness, but they do represent the order of price targets I expect us to hit.
First Wave
This one will be the biggest, fastest, and most aggressive. But very likely will also see the biggest pullback. WE WILL NOT JUST GO STRAIGHT UP! But Very likely minimal pullbacks around the 5-7% range. Will post over the weekend what we're looking for specifically and link the idea here.
(Other Waves and notes will be posted here as we progress)
Unity - The Planned Sideways MovesUnity has recently had a significant pullback after finishing a solid 1-5 impulse set. This is purely a technical play, trend lines were hard to find here for this due to the ongoing sideways nature over the past year of this stock. I will be making a separate post in the coming weeks about Unity detailing the structural schematic appearing to be an accumulation setup (Referencing Wyckoff accumulation Schematic).
Technical Notes:
The B Wave's height/pullback expected is not known, just made a base assumption off of the top VWAP resistance.
The micro-wave count for the C wave is highly speculative.
Looking for this to play out over the next few weeks.
OKTA - Small Rise Before The FallOKTA - had a bad crash due to bad year-over-year earnings report despite crushing expectations.
Wave count suggests it was due, expanded flat setup, even with a good earnings report, very likely it would've rejected the 93.50 mark on the first attempt.
We're looking for a strong pullback followed by a lot more down-turn, towards the 1.272 expanded flat range of $60-$58 a share. VERY BULLISH AFTER THIS.
CVNA - Bulls Are Just BeginningCarvana is setting up for quite the run. Despite seeing a quick increase in price from $15 a share all the way to $26, this Elliot wave count presents a sizeable 3rd wave extension.
Right Now
It looks like we've completed a minute 3rd wave extension, price is looking to move in a serious pullback. The $15.20 range is a big aggressive! If bulls are impatient or a short squeeze is primed, the minute c wave may barely past the a wave.
Ahead?
We need to see more price action before getting more specific price targets, but in the short term (next 2 months) I am eyeing the $30-32 price range before our next major pullback.
BELUSDT(breakout)Hello traders.
BEL broke the downtrend line(marked in black) with a sharp move and great volume and now after some drop it has reached to the multi support zone (the intersection of horizontal support(red) and broken downtrend line(black)).this support zone is strong and we can expect rejection from here.
in case of more drop the next level for rejection is the intersection of channel's lower band and blue support level
ACTUSDT/1DAYSharp rise will possible after breakout from up trend. Maybe we're gonna see pullback on up trend and maybe not but I think we will see it.
Beating SPY with a lazy 40/60 stocks/fixed income portfolioAs a demonstration for how to use the multi-asset portfolio indicator, I decided to use this particular weighting scheme as it is a great, simple mid-risk allocation scheme for now. Subjected to minimal variance due to a low beta, exposure to volatility purely through the market is mostly done through a singular asset (VTI), whereas the other non-fixed ticker (PFF) exposes the user to, in my opinion, commonly neglected Preferred Stock! The remainder is distributed among fixed income, resulting in this sturdy guy.
BTC | Correlation doesn't assume causationIt sure doesn't. But in BTC's case, it seems as though the two go hand in hand. And despite the rhetoric of BTC being a hedge against risk on assets, since 2011, BTC has a correlation coefficient of about r=0.78 compared to that with gold of about r= -0.14.
Go figure.
And then again, when all shit breaks loose, all asset classes converge to 1. But BTC has never experienced a macro econ recession. If it does, will it also be gaining? As CNBC's Thomas Lee once stated BTC is ambidextrous, we all hope so.
And although BTC is volatile as f*ck, compared to the S&P, BTC's Sharpe Ratio once again steals the show:
BTC YTD Sharpe: 42.9
S&P YTD Sharpe: 20.8
So what's is going to take for BTC to pump again? Do we need the S&P to also pump some? Well as the eve of the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China creeps up on us, it's easy to say getting a trade deal done will be the catalyst. But with comments from US officials on Friday threatening to delist Chinese stocks from US exchanges...HOLD on tighter.
Contract Performance in 2019CLV9's relative performance to an assumed Risk Free Rate of $54.00. Pivot highs and lows during the last 8 months are taken as sample series for the calculations. Given the high Sortino ratio, opening long positions around the 54 mark looks reasonable. Wide stops tend to increase odds of landing a trade significantly.
OMGBTC / long / 5% of depoOMGBTC
5% of depo
signal / wait to buy
sharpe / -3.72
sortino / -0.59
24high / 0.0000243
NXSBTC / wait to buy / 5% of depoNXSBTC / 5% of depo
signal / wait to buy
sharpe / -4.07
sortino / -0.62
24high / 0.000043
AEBTC / long / 5% of depo / strong buy#theminimalist
AEBTC / 5% of depo / strong buy
sharpe / -3.76
sortino / -0.60
24high / 0.0000749