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SHCOMP

ridethepig | SHCOMP for the Yearly Close📌 Another round of updates for the Yearly close on the MT and LT maps, sellers may still be in control but buyers are flirting with that breakup. This will occupy the battlefield and unlock a test of 4,500 for 2021. What is wrong with the bull case is exhausting to list; the exchange of capital from public to private assets is developing sooner than I expected. After Trump lost it is opening the window and front door for capital outflows. I am not interested in personalities with politics, when you have been in this business for too long you either understand or learn to never trust politicians on either side. Biden implementing the typical "vote me in and i'll get the guy who caused this" manoeuvre is carrots on a stick. Economic cycles are more powerful than politics. As we have seen, monetary policy has been employed and constitutes an excellent weapon for this 'reset'. After PBOC 'whatever it takes' moment, we managed to trade more or less to the tick on the lows as the exchange was easy to track: Now once we approached the highs we began to track for signs of a possible top. On the one hand, the ABC is very strong and must absolutely continue holding for sellers to have a valid setup. However, an immediate attack on the highs looks somewhat easier now as we ran out of time on the U.S. political front. So, the correct moves for 2021 is now the freeing impulsive swing rather than the previous retracement: But we must quite specifically keep an eye on continuation of sharp speculators outguessing government defaults cooking and the early game has started. Possibly the occupation of 4,500 and beyond. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
SLong
by ridethepig
3
Where is the strongest wind blowing in China's stock market over Speaking of A-shares, I am very optimistic about the trend of the next decade, because A large number of institutional investors enter the market, the demand for high-quality assets is becoming more and more obvious, so A good track is the key to win steadily. In the past 20 years, the Internet is undoubtedly the most powerful outlet for A-shares. Even without giants like BAT, there is still no shortage of 10x and 20x big stocks. With the adjustment of China's industrial structure and the development of science and technology in human society, biopharmaceuticals will undoubtedly become the most powerful voice in the next 10 years. From the COVID-19 outbreak in 2019, we can already see that the biopharmaceutical industry has received financial attention, as well as market prospects. As can be seen from the chart, after four years of bear market, the index has completed the adjustment of ABC and entered a new rising cycle in 2019. Due to the lack of historical data before 2012, we cannot confirm which band is running here. But regardless of the band, this wave will be very hot, and even on 2019's path, the chance of a future index doubling is very easy to come by. So for those who lack the conditions for fundamental research, they might as well choose a biopharmaceutical theme fund and hold it for the long term, believing that the future will have a rich return.
SSE:000121
by peter-l
Add some China to your portfolioRead this news here USA has 30 trillion , ie . 3 times the market cap of China which shows that at the rate that China is growing, it has 3-5 times the potential of future growth. HK has about 4 trillion right now and with the recent changes made to its policies and China's intervention, I believe for HK to double its market cap is possible in years to come. Do compare the HangSeng Tech index ETF for the different expense ratios. China has a lot to offer and its growth story remains one of excitement and mystery as it continues to open up its economy to the global stage.......
SLong
by dchua1969
ridethepig | SHCOMP Market Commentary 2020.08.26📌 A quiet few weeks and enjoying the last few days of summer before things get very active in markets for the rest of the year and into 2021. Global Equity buyers received their reward for their braveness play: overshoots are a weakness. See diagram below. The mysterious 2650 lows were held from the Giant Panda (PBOC), when retail threatened the attack down to make the recovery difficult the monetary side played the defence. At the same time, it also makes the inevitable far worse as the energy needed to get back to 2750/2650 is minimal. The book is very thin. Buyers have made good use of the swing higher, ignoring Covid cases and deaths and totally looking through US/China protectionism. Sellers have played the waiting game and distributed on the test of resistance 3400/3350: Prepare for a parry away as the ever present threat of covid approaches and puts further lockdown threats in play. The risk of a full blown monetary crisis has put Equities under permanent threat as the weakness comes from confidence. If consumers are not confident enough to return, or will question if clients are even able to meet, then it will not matter the amount of stimulus as the issue is far bigger than central banks. A strong move here would be to push the tempo and threaten the immediate breakdown. Live portfolio flows and chart updates resuming as 'normal' from Jackson tomorrow. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
SShort
by ridethepig
6
Relative Performance of Chinese Stock Market vs. the S&P 500I saw a man discuss the relative performance between the Shanghai Composite and the S&P 500, and he suggested that based on that analysis, the Chinese market was set to outperform the US market. But I wasn't satisfied with the analysis because he established his ratio in arithmetic scale, which gives it a bit of a distorted look, given the terrific swings the Chinese markets can and have had. In log scale, perhaps a very different picture emerges. One, the periods of great outperformance show a steady decline over the years. And also, a break of trend happened in 2018, when world GDP began its slow decline, meaning: since that time, as all markets have suffered, the Chinese markets have suffered more than US markets have. And it even looks as if both of these trend lines are now serving as overhead resistance. Unless the Chinese markets can break through these, we may actually be looking at evidence of a period of terrible underperformance ahead for Chinese markets.
SShort
by CHTradingGroup
1
China's Shanghai Composite Might Be in Serious Trouble When I have examined the Shanghai Composite in the past, I have used the arithmetic scale, which I most often customarily use and here is what that looks like: Based on that, we see a symmetrical triangle, with what appears to be the beginnings of a great launch in progress. However, given the risks I believe all of the world markets are now facing, I just find it too hard to believe that it can get up to test the top of that triangle before the other world markets collapse. They would either need to defy the stresses that every other world market will soon face, or they would need an immediate hyper-inflationary scenario, neither of which I believe fit the fundamentals. As a matter of fact, I believe their economy may face greater stress than many others, due to their near total reliance on exports; and hyper-inflationary scenarios take at least a bit of time to actually unfold. And it also isn't hard to imagine that trade tensions, geopolitical backlash from many nations, and the misallocation of capital that attends communist planning will all cause these stocks to suffer. So, I decided to keep looking, and I opted to try some things using the logarithmic scale, which could be especially useful with this index given its wild historical price swings. And so that is the chart that leads this "idea" above. On that scale, something more realistic emerges. Beginning in 2018, world GDP began slowing and we see this reflected in broad measures of our own economy, for instance in the Russell 2000, which peaked in 2018, despite the other indices (Apple) going on to make new all-time highs. And so China's Shanghai Composite, with its dependence on exporting goods, broke, on the logarithmic scale, an important major trend line in 2018 and has struggled ever since to recapture it. Furthermore, its most recent price action, including the retail frenzy that has taken hold of their population in the last few weeks, seems to have found that trend line as overhead resistance. Having remained below this, there may not be much support at all. If things get ugly, this index could completely fall apart.
SShort
by CHTradingGroup
ridethepig | Chinese Equities ... The Slaughtered PigThe "hanging" candle The problem is as follows: If the only way to reach risk-on in and remove social distancing is either via a vaccine (most preferred option although not really in scope till 2021) or further extreme lockdown measures (as you all know extremely costly and damaging to the monetary side) to completely remove the virus from circulation. With all roads towards confidence blockaded, it's more advisable to take a contrarian stance to the equity promoters. This is not an easy one to add too. It depends on the circumstances next week, namely on the virus front as Europe looks set to follow the US and lose control. This is something I would like you all to anticipate: it is all too easy as for the Robinhood pawns who tend to be weak when tested. The flows are as follows: 1️⃣ the flows themselves in US equities are open to attack 2️⃣ the final nail in the coffin comes from long bonds which are too much pressure to maintain: this means that the necessary complacency forces retail to buy all the junk while those smart enough unload and exert Puts / shorts. Here the notion of parking capital in China in the short-term turns out to be deceptive and soft. Once more the reason can be found in the previous SHCOMP swings: in diagrams attached below you will see excellent examples of PBOC blockaders and failures. Ride the PBOC, Feb 3rd 2020 The attempt to ride the CB flows, the hanging lows were relatively obvious and panic creates weakness which can be bought with confidence like passing clouds. SHCOMP Market Commentary, Feb 24th 2020 The pullback was a result of the PBOC and sharp hands. Many moons ago I would've been convinced by this market...not today. This leads to the long run choppy conditions and unfavourable outcome of soft hands who placed their stops too blatently. The sell side is still there on the move, ride weakness is the strategy and balance out at key support levels. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
SShort
by ridethepig
13