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SHCOMP

What happened when more money is injected into markets ?Take a look at this 3 line charts - SHCOMP, CN50 and HSI respectively. When 1.2 trillion yuan were injected into the markets, the 3 indices did a V shaped recovery almost instantly! Currently, SHCOMP is in the lead, followed closely by CN50 and HSI with a fairly strong pullback. The whole world is now watching how China central government will react on its monetary policies as being the world's 2nd largest economy, its action or inaction will have a severe impact on the global economy. The Chinese are the world's largest spenders when they travel and many hotels, restaurants, theme parks even properties are suffering (with some bemoaning they can only withstand for 3 months before they closed shops). This black swan event caught many by surprise and its pervasive and seemingly difficult to control has kept many world's leaders sleepless night. If you are like me ,a long term investor of China and buy into the China story of it overtaking US in time to come, already with its technologies, this drop is a good opportunity to buy the indices or individual companies at a cheaper price. We have yet to really see the impact of how these markets will be until the Q1 2020 GDP results are released. Many analysts are hoping this epidemic be contained and number of cases begin to reduce so that business can return to normal. There are many lessons that we can learn from this event 1. How integrated and connected the global world has become and the importance of collaborating with one another to fight a common battle 2. Business Continuity Plan - When this event is over, I think more meetings will be held in boardroom to discuss how to prevent a disaster like this again. Eg. when business are overly concentrated in China, with 60-70% revenue generating from it will suffer drastically. Other examples include the businesses that depend on China tourism - Cambodia casino , overseas hotels, restaurants, luxury properties, etc 3. Emerging opportunities - How the tech giants like Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and others are leveraging on AI to help combat some of the challenges they faced in this crisis. Will this technology become an emerging trend that can be scale up in the future ? Next, working from home - a yet to catch on concept in Asia, especially China - will it be the catalyst for change in the traditional 9 to 5 working environment ? If the government support this policy, then employees need to purchase properties that is near to subway or close proximity to their offices thus reducing on hefty mortgage loan. Working from home also introduce a whole set of new changes such as video conferencing, screen sharing, encryption of files sharing,etc. We can take a leaf from the European countries and adopt this work from home culture. In short, as trader and investor, we must remain stay open to opportunities and not miss the woods by focusing too much on the trees within.
TVC:HSI
by dchua1969
Shanghai Composite Index: just a narrativeHi Guys, here the allocation of some events that impacted the Shanghai Composite Index (as well as worldwide financial markets): 1) China became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) on 11 December 2001; (en.wikipedia.org) 2) Financial crisis of 2007–08; (en.wikipedia.org) 3) 2015-2016 Chinese stock market turbulence; (en.wikipedia.org TO NOTE: following 2) and 3) the Index was always supported at higher levels. Need to take into consideration that stock market is still young and the System must be supported. TO NOTE: impact of COVID19 in the violet circle at present. Please share your views or comment and if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
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by cozzamara
Call your bluff - Shanghai surprise Again? Yes, the Shanghai Composite had a massive Gap Down after a two week Chinese New Year break due to the COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei, China. Since then, week after week it made momentous recovery up to close the gap this week. While this is seemingly bullish, and is technically starting to pull the MACD bullish, I call a bluff. Here is why... 1. The system Sell signal has not been invalidated. Invalidation requires a break out of the long term trend line, with continued momentum (in the face of bearish looking Asian markets). 2. The current range expected is very large with a widening triangle With a slight probability advantage, I call a bluff on the Shanghai Composite, to be rejected at the trend line, and close the next week or two below 2975.
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by Auguraltrader
1
SHCOMP: Gap filledHi Guys, the causes of the drop occurred back in May 2019 are different from today's drop due to COVID2019. They both produced a gap down but whilst the first took two months to be filled, the latter took two weeks as it has been filled today. For information about gaps: www.investopedia.com What type of gap is the present one? Please add your comments and if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
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by cozzamara
SHCOMP Gap Fill and 61.8% Fib BeatI apparently forgot the #1 rule in investing that has remained true since the financial crisis: don't bet against global central banks and their ability to maintain economic(stock) expansion. The PBOC has injected enough liquidity during this coronavirus outbreak to ease all trader fears of a market decline which has led to price filling the gap that was created around the Chinese New Year, and as of last night have now moved price back above the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level. Both lower indicators are leaning bullish with a fresh bull cross in the PPO and an RSI that looks ready to move back into bullish territory above the 50 level.
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by PrepForProfit
RIDE THE PBOC !!!China returning from LNY and an (un)lucky -8% selloff taking the headlines as SHCOMP catches up to the bleeding across Global Equities since last week. Well done those that caught the move we traded live here: A flawless -8% leg in a single gap; as long as the full extent in the impact of this virus remains unclear it will be difficult for SHCOMP to get back above 3,000. These retraces should be seen as good SHCOMP selling opportunities (although tricky in this case for some). The liquidity injection from PBOC will be enough to put the handbrake on the selloff, this area is of focus and here looking for 2983 to the topside while 2650 is the area of focus below. China a much bigger part of global growth now; almost 2/3 of China is in shutdown meaning PMIs are likely to dip next month. We have some time to complete the retrace before reassessing if the coronavirus impact can be looked through or if we will need to change MT and LT outlooks. A transmission leg, not for the feint of heart. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with your likes, comments, charts and etc! Good luck all those trading SHCOMP after the last 8% move we can afford to leave some chips on the table.
SLong
by ridethepig
8
I wouldn't be surprised that GEM will even hit new highs in the Although the outbreak coronavirus has hit A-shares hard, the performance of the GEM can be described as stunning. In fact, from last year I have been recommending THE GEM, because TMT completely out of the bear market, then what will be done next? You can refer to the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index in 1996, and for the GEM, I think that the year to overcome 2000 points is still a small goal. Recommendations: low-buying technology stocks-based segment industry leader, mid-line look 5g, integrated circuits, Internet of Things upstream, food, biopharmaceutical, new energy is still a hot spot
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by peter-l
Shanghai Composite - When to touch and when to not touch?A lot of my friends and colleagues were calling me and asking me should they invest in chinese stock market. First, getting exposure to chinese stock market is hard. Secondly, most of the money may and can be made in the short term, which is non of my interest. Chinese stock market is an example of how human emotions play and work. It is MUCH HARDER to predict human emotions in the short term versus long term. My rule of investing and trading is that I don't touch anything until it is a GOOD TIME to touch. So, when is it good time or GREAT TIME to touch the chinese stock market? When it is in bull market, just like 2007 and 2015. So, is chinese stock market in bull market? Nope. So, I don't touch it and don't have interest in it. There might be some stocks or companies that are in bull market and that is another story on its own. You want to play with momentum and I don't like catching a falling knife, I would rather wait patiently for good opportunities and for a real bull market. The only real bull market at the moment is still in the US stock market, so that is where I mostly play and also in the tech sector. Some chinese companies in the tech sector might be doing well and might be following Nasdaq, so, the sell off may be good buying opportunities. Again, this is classification and isolation and nothing to do with the general market trend. Overall, tech companies have been doing relatively well versus other sectors. And company with good business does outperform the general market. That is also another factor. So, in summary, I don't touch and I don't intend to touch. But running my screener on chinese stock market, I have seen some stocks are in bull market, and if you want to touch these stocks, go ahead. None of my business.
SEducation
by UnknownUnicorn735418
ridethepig | SHCOMP Market Commentary 2020.01.31As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc... Lets get started with a round of important chart updates coming today (which btw is extraordinarily late after a week ban). I would like you to note the position arising here looks as though its "business as usual" for the dip buyer crowd, whereas sellers are seeking salvation in a momentum breakdown against the support. The 2793.xx has now been exposed and the base is open for a typical attack. The macro cycle swing down started here when we traded the highs in April year: As we know, the philosophy of a swing which we have dealt with can wield sound reason for the evaluation of any possible scenarios where flows are involved. But as this example will show, the theory of swings we have widely mentioned in previous charts can also be useful to highlight the notion that battlefields exist. So we are talking here about an area which is needed to break in order to form the breakdown as a first premise. I would recommend that you try to technically understand the two different sides in play, notably should we fail to breakdown then the swing to the extreme topside with a rebound through the red line as the other scenario (this will come via coronavirus fading). It is possible to remain indifferent to direction without great difficult in the game. German Equities are now forming a high and already appear to be coming off: To secure the breakdown we will need Europe and NY to keep the pressure on today, SHCOMP is closed till Monday so gaps expected! Good luck!
SShort
by ridethepig
Portier | SSE Comp Macro Outlook, Analysis & Market CommentaryTraders & Investors! Short, short, short. Chinese viral outbreak fuels the technical fire Chinese equities sought in relation to it's recent selloff. We see this move as only the beginning of larger selloff toward $2,600. We have positioned ourselves accordingly and see SSE as the best vessel for this view. We have also coupled this view via additional put exposure in USDJPY. Our view - Coronavirus to fuel breakdown in Asian Equities as demand retracts and uncertainty remains. A protracted viral outbreak should provide support to the downside bias - Weak and declining sector strength in China include financials, industrials and consumer discretionary - Technical test of sellside liquidity and 61.8% retracement level. Impulsive conviction through the 200DMA and break of corrective wedge pattern should see this move extend materially lower. - Circa +15.00% move on the cards to our sellside liquidity targets ~$2,600 We have added sellside exposure across both our macro and directional portfolios ------------------------- We look forward to continuing to provide market leading analysis to traders & investors alike across the TradingView platform. Like, subscribe and leave your comments below! Until next time, Portier Capital Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
SShort
by Portier
GLOBAL INDEXES BREAKING-OUT? PHASE I-Pre EARNINGS(Ft.15 charts)Four Major Global Indices; Series on Equities- January 19th 20' Questions that need answers Plenty of good news last week (Chinese Growth ~6%, PHASE I deal, global bounce in manufacturing data, USMCA vote etc etc) . Many worries had been pacified ahead of earnings, so what is the price action in some of the major global markets? Spoiler , obviously due to the high correlation, equity markets are near break-out points globally . This idea is a continuation of my previous idea, which has been tracking the SPX extremely well in the past two weeks. The question is will the momentum run in the SPX continue to 3450? Based on this chart on global indices, in case a breakout occurs, SPX might over-extend even further to 3450. And then there's the earnings season.. US equities were the first ones to show signs of breaking out the 3000 range back in November of 2019. This means that despite the high correlation, equity markets globally have been trailing behind, and only now appear to show signs of breaking out. Before I get into the indices charts, firstly few important updates for the weeks ahead: 1. DXY appears to be breaking out of the wedge, attempting to come back inside the uptrend. Despite all the new liquidity that was pumped by the FED in their "Not QE" operations, the dollar seems to have regained strength post Phase I. Of course, this devalues other indices, but at the same time implies that the demand for the dollar continues. Two very contrasting factors that can be the difference between a bull run and a liquidity crunch. 2. TLT medium duration notes. Attempting to breakout of the downtrend, but without any success the past two weeks. TLT is a great inter-temporal hedge to stocks. And if TLT breaks out in the next few weeks, it might give a hint for a potential pause to the rally in equities. 3. Boeing BA, the elephant in the room . To keep it short, if BA's earnings are a debacle, this can really dampen the drive for equities in the short term. Getting the MAX back flying, it's the difference between SPX having positive and negative operating profits. Closing below 320, eventually 317, we could see a sell-off back to ~290. 4. IEMG . Emerging markets are breaking out of their rectangular formation. Still far from their all time highs. Emerging markets are the growth engine . Tariffs staying in place post phase I, certainly doesn't help. 5. NIKKEI 225 . Back to indices. Nikkei's current trend developments and targets. ~26000-27000 would be the optimal range in case a breakout occurs for 2020. 6. DAX 30 . Sentiment is lacking, but there appears to be a small bounce in manufacturing data. Of course, this is on the back of the expanded balance sheets, and the rally will last as long as the ECB keeps QE-eternity and the FED keeps the "Not QE" bill purchases. 7. FTSE100 . Post Brexit and post phase I, searching for a breakout. Expectations are that the BoE will provide an accommodating environment, perhaps with few rate cuts. Retail sales data isn't getting better, maybe that'll change if the expected fiscal spending increase takes place? 8. Stoxx50 . Pitchfork based on the usual fib. levels. Again, obviously high correlations, trailing breakout. 9. Stoxx600 . More importantly, the the index as a whole is doing much better. Practically has followed SPX500 without trailing. 10. FTSE MIB 40. QE accommodating environment largest beneficiaries are the southern European economies. Nevertheless, how can the stock market be breaking-out, after the economy practically had a mini-recession in 2018, and the economy has grown at 0.1 %? 11. IBEX 35 . Of course similar story to the FTSE MIB40. All the worries about the new socialist government, and yet here we are- a new rally. 12. SG30- Using Singapore, as a proxy to India cancelling all the noise there. The newest Cass freight index points out that the slump in global trade has continued despite the bounce in manufacturing. Singapore as a major travelling, a trading hotpot and due to the openness of the economy can give a hint of the actual strength and improvement in economic conditions. 13. OMX30. OMX30, currently forming a bearish wedge. Interestingly, Riksbanken had a surprise hike in rates back to 0%, despite the slump in manufacturing data(no bounce). 14. OMXPI. Overall the Nordics as a safe heaven have tracked SPX carefully. OMXPI despite the low volume, managed to breakout. Question is, is this a good selling spot or a trend continuation? 15. Russell 2000. Finally, US small caps. Many issues with them, one being over-leverage. 170 proved to be a great profit taking point on Friday, as I've suggested previously. To wrap up this extensive idea on global markets. Breakout areas are a great profit taking point. If we do not breakout of the current range, instead we might get a 5-7% correction. I wasn't satisfied with the deal, but that's a discussion for another idea. Banks had a satisfying performance last week, and looking ahead NFLX on Tuesday could give off some hints about the direction where the tech sector will be heading. As mentioned BA is the major one. Disclosure on their progress will be key to overall market return s. To answer some of my questions shortly, what I can say is, currently stocks are expensive, but are they overpriced? - Not as long as the "Not QE" program is supplying juicy liquidity that seems to be flowing directly to equities. The larger issue at hand, is that investors are becoming accustomed to QE as the answer to all of their worries. Underneath QE, there's practically no growth ; 2% with fiscal deficits rising and QE expansion, how can this mean that the US economy is sustainably growing? This is it for global markets analysis. Thank you for the support! Means that my effort is not in vain. Message me if you'd like to discuss ideas, charts. I'll try to answer in due time. Step_ahead_ofthemarket- ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
TVC:UKX
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
7
China-U.S. agreement opens up space for A-shares to risePresident Trump Yesterday brought a New Year's gift to investors around the world, tweeting that he and Prime Minister Liu will sign the first phase of the China-U.S. trade deal at the White House on January 15 and will visit Beijing later to begin negotiations on the second phase of the agreement. This is undoubtedly an important message, indicating that the two-year-long trade war is finally about to press the pause button, which is good for China and the global economy. Of course, fo r China's A-shares is more important good. I believe that in the first quarter, more funds will flow into the market. Let us compare another trade conflict that took place 30 years ago, the us-Japan trade war, when the US and Japan signed the Plaza Agreement on September 22, 1985, and we look at the Nikkei index, which rose by 207% from 1985 to December 1989. This is at odds with the damage many people have done to trade wars. As for the reasons, I have also analyzed it before. At the moment we look at A-shares, it's very likely that the Nikkei will be replicated and there's a chance of doubling in 2020.
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by peter-l
In 2020, the Shanghai Index may rise more than expectedAs 2019 years pass, it should be objective and accurate to look back at the analysis and judgment I made in 2018. Shcomp has had 6 rise and adjustment cycles in the past 20 years ups in the market, the average is about 24 months, while the decline of the market mostly more than 40 months. each rise is more than 100% increase, the adjustment range is about 50% per time. So by comparing historical trends, we can look at the 2019 trend. It has been running for 11 months, up nearly 25%, and if you compare any of the gains in history, it seems that none of the conditions are met. So let's assume that this is a bull market, which means either doubling the increase or taking about 24 months. So I infer that the coming year could be a more than expected rise cycle, and although many people are optimistic about the chances of 2020, but everyone is more conservative, thinking that 3500 points is the limit, and some even say that the 2020 annual chart close should be a negative line. But I am more optimistic, assuming that the increase of 10 months, just to meet the length of 24 months time, or, there is a wave of rapid upward trend, to 5000 points, to complete 100% of the increase conditions. Either way, it's going to be a rise, so I think it's going to be more than expected for 2020. In addition to the analysis of technical charts, we look at the fundamentals, also support a decent bull market. First, the trade-war cease-fire is an important signal for everyone's emotional repair, and businesses will get a respite and adjust their strategic layout. Second, for the "financial" reform and "state-owned enterprises" reform, was supposed to be done in 2015, because of the "share disaster", temporarily put on hold. Now it's time to start over, which will give the market new hype. Third, securities are light assets, for the restructuring of China's economy, foreign capital will not buy real estate such as real estate, so buying stocks is the best choice, and this year's continued inflow of foreign capital is only a start, the next 5-10 years, the proportion of foreign ownership will be greatly increased. Fourth, 15 years opened the A-share de-bubble, now look, lubricants are almost gone, the market really can't move. the east capacity shift to the west, it is equivalent to China's capacity transfer like Africa, in China to create a "four small dragons" is not a far-flung thing, so there is no need to dwarf themselves. Conclusion: I am very optimistic about China's A-share market in 2020. Investment advice: Internet of Things plate, 5g, software, communications equipment, electronic components, smart wear. There is also a lot of room for the securities sector.
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by peter-l
How to grasp the slow bull trend of gemAbout the a-share rise logic, I have a lot of analysis before, you can look at the previous article, do not repeat. Talking about the slow bull logic of the GEM, last year I was saying that the trend of GEM is completely and the Shanghai Composite Index deviated, so I think gem is a cross-year market. There is a lot of basis for this logic, and one is easier to understand - goodwill. In 2017, steel, coal and other enterprises, by the reduction of inventory, a large amount of inventory, when many steel companies lost billions of dollars, many people shouted that the cycle stock is finished. But at that time I pointed out that the large calculation, is the loss behind the early digestion, so if the later impairment is not so much, equal to an increase in earnings. So look at cycle stocks such as steel and coal. The same is true of the latter developments. The 2018 GEM is a repeat, with many companies taking advantage of LeEco's thunder to make large-scale goodwill impairments on acquisitions over the past two years. In fact, impairment has been done, but before is amortization, last year is a one-time charge. This will allow the potential losses in the next few years to be digested ahead of time, that is, if those acquisitions are the subject matter, as long as they are still profitable, for listed companies are earned. Based on this logic, I think the GEM has bottomed out, but the trade war in 2019 has disrupted the pace, leaving many companies with losses, masking the gains from the charges. But now that the trade war is suspended, it is undoubtedly a major boon for the GEM. So we'll see the rising space of the tech stocks open later. Looking back at the current form, the GEM obviously out of the breakthrough market, but the small cycle of 5 waves is also into the end, so I think here slow bull market, should not be straight up, before the Spring Festival there is a adjustment, and the pressure here is mainly in 1900, 2000 points. Suggestions Plate, I personally will be optimistic about 5g and electronic components, these are the upstream of the Internet of Things, but also the basis, if in the initial stage, they will be the first beneficiaries, and then will be the mid- and lower-stream plate, the application side of the demand increased. Referring to this logic, we can choose the market segment leader, if there is a large amount of previous, the main industry does not have a problem with the subject matter, should be a good choice. In 2020, A-shares will be the world's crown, take advantage of! I wish you all a Merry Christmas!
3
by peter-l
2
The limit of DJI will be toAfter a decade of gold, the U.S. stock market will face another big bear market. If the DJI does not continue to rise in the next six months, then macd will produce a top divergence, which will be the 6th top divergence in the history of the DJI, in the previous five times, three times more than -20%, two times stagflation, so don't look down on the pressure of top divergence. And I believe that this time, if a top divergence is formed, it could be a long bear market, with adjustments likely to take more than a year. And for the Dow's target forecast, there are now two clear highs, 29600 and 34400, the target bits formed by the two golden divider lines, which, if superimposed on top divergence, could be the ultimate top of the Dow Jones index. On the contrary, China's A-shares, after four years of bear market, in the securities market continued to "de-leverage", the risk has been reduced a lot, the market is now attracting numerous external capital inflows, including by Trump "screaming" the United States "pension pension" are eager to run into the market, indicating that A-shares are currently cost-effective, It's hard for anyone to refuse. With China's economy facing its worst situation in 30 years, why do people value A-shares so much? I think on the one hand is the world's second largest economy, its own vitality is tenacious, so that we all believe that China can avoid Japan and Germany's problems. Globally, is there a safer investment market than China after capital leaves the United States? I'm afraid the answer is no. In the case of economic downturn, light assets are actually very good investment targets, which in Japan after the "square agreement", has also been confirmed. So it's important for me to remind you that it's time to focus on A-shares. Strategy: gradually withdraw from the U.S. stock market, the investment target to China's A-share market, 5g is the infrastructure of the Internet of Things, is the cornerstone of China's science and technology decade, but also the first to benefit from the sector, and China's social transformation, manufacturing technology upgrading, asset securitization is the foundation, so the big financial sector also has a bull market foundation, In the future there will be Morgan Stanley in China, Apple and Google.
DJ:DJI
by peter-l