Is this the right time to start buying Chinese stocks?Since the all time highs in 2007 the Shanghai Composite has not recovered those levels failing on successive Lower Highs. This has created a Triangle pattern on the Monthly chart with Higher Lows. We can't be sure which trend line has to be followed to mark the new Higher Low as both have valid grounds. In any case, the index is approaching its long term technical low, which was either on October's 2,449.20 or will be near 2,100. 2,500 is currently the MA200 period on the monthly chart, so there are more chances to see the recovery starting now. Our early estimates place the long target at 4,380.
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SHCOMP
shcomp Bull is coming soonAfter 3 years of adjustment so that a shares become the most investment value of the market, the current ABC three waves have been completed, and the C wave of 4 near the end, the next will be C5 wave, bear market is about to pass, investors should start to be ready to build a stock pool, choose those overshoot of the target, in the next 2 months positive layout.
Shanghai Index Testing Key Resistance LevelThe Shanghai index set a new low this year bottomed out at 2443.00 last Monday. Where price has surged nicely last week, ending the week with 5.5% gain. Now price has been trading just underneath key resistance for just a day now. With US election coming out bullish for the US market, the only major concern now in the global market is trade war.
Trade Step-ups:
Bearish Reversal : Price rejects a break from current resistance level. Profit levels to look for are 2580.00 & 2550.00 respectively.
Bullish breakout : Price breaks current resistance level, look for consolidation above 2680.00.
UPD: Shangai composite met confluence supportA close >2620 will confirm positive momo divergence $FXI, $SHCOMP
What does the future hold for China?With $41 Trillion of internal debt, is China going to make it as they are now, or will they experience tremendous Social Upheaval? Over the next several years it looks like there is a fair to middling chance they can continue to exist as they are.
Looking at this chart for the long term, China will cease to exist as they stand by the end of the 20’s, either descending into chaos, or breaking into smaller states. Xi Jinping, will be President of China for life, although it will be short, unless he learns the secret: “If you love something, set it free…”
Chinese stocks under severe pressure from global risk => Market turmoil is creating its own negative feedback loops for China driving further tightening financial conditions that will last and have further effects on the economic growth in the region.
=> It seems unlikely to open the floodgates to a recession so far however further trade tensions between the US and China will add to fragility.
=> Targets in Chinese stocks remain at 2400 after the technical break of the 76.4% retracement.
=> Good luck all
HERE COMES THE DEATH CROSS LADS RIP CHINAShanghai and emerging markets are about to take another beating.
I'm betting against South Africa since they are in worse shape and a client state of China
Chinese stock market breaking out?The Shanghai Composite, one of China's main stock indices seems to be at a major breakout zone. It seems possible that the trend may finally continue upward from this point after years of up and down. If this is the case, then this could be a bullish view for the global market, despite the Trump tariffs which have been bearish for the macroeconomy. If this shows the end of the counter trend, and the beginning of the upward bullish trend then this could be a positive sign for the many Chinese stocks. $MCHI, $BABA, $BIDU, $TCEHY, etc. It would be worth noting that many of these Chinese stocks are at noticeable drawdowns, and could either continue down or comeback from a retracement.
SHCOMP Shanghai Composite A Technically Perfect Bounce13th September 08:28 Bst
Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP
A Technically Perfect Bounce
This was meant to bounce from the the big double bottom
set-up at the 2639 line. In the event it fell to 2647 before
bouncing about 1% or so.
However this index is so far still stuck below the upper
parallel of the original downwave and is therefore not out of
the woods quite yet - but it has at least bounced where it
should have done from a technical perspective.
Now has to push up through that same parallel to start
running free to the upside and to challenge the next
resistance zone at 2791-2803 range.
Whilst this index holds up above 2639 trade worries should
dissipate and help other world markets too.
Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP 12th September 00:59 Bst
Now just 10 to 24 points away from major support potential at
structure lows in the 2653-2639 range.
This index must hold here and bounce overnight.
Failure to do so will trigger further weakness back to 2444.
That would affect other markets tomorrow.
So long as it holds up as it should we should have a positive
day tomorrow elsewhere too.
*For global markets updates in real-time please see last link
at top-left of main page.
Will the SHCOMP get supported here?The SHCOMP comes to a critical price level. Let's see whether it will be bottomed.
Good luck to everyone!
Cheers
SHCOMP***Short term rebound will start soonThis year is ttly a bearish year for SHCOMP, should be patience.
Correlation & recent divergence of Australia & Hong KongInteresting divergence in the past few months in what are normally two highly correlated indexes (Hong Kong's HSI and the Australian index). Hong Kong is the red line, whereas Australia is the blue line. Note the stark divergence where HK is heading south, while Australia has yet to head downward.
Note that the lines represented here are the 100-day exponential moving averages of the index to smooth things out.
A-Share dilemma - break of trend or meteroic rise?Looking at the long-term trend, the Chinese A-shares are trading within a pretty well defined range since the mid 1990's. This includes two meteroic bubbles that have risen as quickly as they've crashed. Despite these bubbles forming, they haven't caused any massive damage to the Chinese economy such as what we saw when other large bubbles broke down (such as Japan's 1980's bubble, or the US dotcom bubble).
Interestingly, each time the trend hit the lower end of the range, we've seen the a-shares shoot up meteroically. Fundamentally, I'm rather bearish on the Chinese market right now. They have an insane debt bubble combined with the news events coming from "trade war" problems. Most of the bubbles in the Shanghai Composite have come as a result of the Chinese govt's constant injections of liquidity and easing. This provides a window into a view of the debt bubble.
Recently, the lower end of the range was once again just hit, and we also have come to learn that the Chinese gov't is already back to monetary easing through various means. Based on history, you would think we may see another meteoric rise in the Shanghai composite index, but I'm not sure that will happen this time around. China is painted into a more difficult corner this time around, and they are more wary about stock bubbles like this nowadays. I think given the fundamental picture, we're more likely to break the long-term trend downward. If the debt bubble does in fact burst, this will certainly be the case. With that said, I think it may be prudent to buy some deep OTM leap calls on the Shanghai Composite (you can use the ETF $ASHR) to capitalize on a potential blowoff bubble formed from more easing once again.
NEO VS GAS VS Shanghai Composite SHCOMP: 6 month head to headAll explained on the graph.
My predicted outcome
GOLD: GAS
SILVER: NEO
BRONZE: SHCOMP
SHCOMP - Bias remains negative Trump continues to escalate the Trade War, now hitting China Mobile.
Chinese bourses are being watched in order to gauge the seriousness
of Trump's moves.
Remember that Tariffs come into place Friday July 6th.
DJI vs SHanghai Comp : Race To The BottomDow Jones Ind Avg = Blue Line
Shanghai Composite = Black Line
Mutually Assured Destruction ?
Currently it looks like china is
winning the race to the bottom.
All in the name of corporate profit
and at the expense of the avg joe
and they wonder why crypto is so
sought after, go figure !
