75: Key Levels Amidst Biofuel Plant Construction HaltShell (SHEL) is navigating significant financial and operational challenges. The company recently announced a delay in the construction of its biofuel plant in Rotterdam, which was initially expected to be operational this year but has now been postponed to 2030. This delay has resulted in a financial setback of at least €554 million, potentially escalating to nearly €1 billion, due to technical challenges and unfavorable market conditions.
Given this backdrop, Shell's stock is currently rejecting the key level at 34.315. Here’s what traders should watch:
Bearish Scenario: If Shell loses the current low, we could see a trend change. The new area of interest will be around 32.65, where we anticipate potential support. This level becomes crucial as the market absorbs the financial impact of the delayed biofuel plant and Shell’s strategic adjustments.
Bullish Scenario: If Shell regains the high at 34.315, we should monitor for new highs above 34.745. In this case, we are targeting a high around 36.75, which could sweep liquidity from a monthly high. This bullish momentum could be driven by positive market reactions to any new strategic initiatives Shell undertakes to mitigate the impact of the delay and to capitalize on future regulatory changes in the aviation fuel sector.
The recent halt in the biofuel plant construction adds a layer of complexity to Shell's stock movement. Investors should closely watch these critical levels for potential trading opportunities, considering the broader implications of Shell's operational challenges and market dynamics.
Shell
META ENTER 408 TP 416 AFTER EARNINGS NASDAQ:META
Growth and Profitability: Bank of America Securities analyst Justin Post maintains a bullish stance on Meta stock, citing potential for growth and profitability1. His analysis anticipates a fourth quarter revenue surpassing the consensus estimates, driven by a 22% year-over-year increase1. This optimistic outlook is fueled by the positive momentum of Reels and advancements in artificial intelligence1.
Monetization of Reels and Messaging: Post believes that Meta is in the early stages of monetizing Reels and messaging, and that ongoing AI and machine learning integrations will enhance user engagement and advertising spend1.
New Products Leveraging AI: The anticipation of new products leveraging Meta’s AI assets, combined with an attractive valuation excluding Metaverse losses, further supports the Buy recommendation1.
Bullish Diagonal Spread: Some investors are going bullish on Meta stock with a diagonal spread2. This strategy involves buying a call option and selling a shorter-term call option against it2.
Advancements in Tech Tools: Meta continually advances its next-gen tech tools, like their AI Code Llama for coding assistance3.
Investment in Metaverse: Meta Platforms is investing billions into the metaverse4. Changes to iOS have stalled Meta’s top line, but Wall Street thinks this will be short-lived
ENTER 408 TP 416 After Earnings
Energy Stocks: Macro Fib SchematicsThis idea beholds 6 of the largest Energy companies in the world.
(Shell, Chevron, Exxon, BP, Duke, and OXY Petroleum.)
These macro schematics have been crafted through meticulous Fibonacci techniques.
I've laid every one on a 3 month timeframe starting at 1988. History buffs will understand the time reference to the rough "start" of Middle Eastern conflicts from the West and the rise of the price of "fossil fuels".
I'm not begging anyone to understand this genius mastery of Fib tools. You either see it or you don't.
I've linked my ENERGY COMMODITIES idea below for more analysis.
Black Gold or Green Future: The Big Oil ParadoxThis investment strategy scrutinizes the complex landscape of major oil corporations like Exxon, Chevron, Shell, and BP , situated at the crossroads between their traditional petroleum-based profits ("black gold") and the imperative to transition towards sustainable energy sources (the "green future").
The approach is uniquely neutral, recognizing both the potential upside and downside of these energy giants, and is armed with targets for either trajectory. One must take into account:
1. Nuclear and Fission Energy Impact: The rise of nuclear and fission energy poses another threat to these corporations. As a clean, efficient, and increasingly cost-competitive source of power, nuclear energy is growing in popularity. Once nuclear energy starts to gain more traction and acceptance, it will further undermine the demand for oil, exacerbating the challenges for these energy giants.
2. Regulatory & Environmental Risks: Anticipating potential regulatory changes aimed at reducing carbon emissions and promoting sustainable energy can help set downside targets. At the same time, successful mitigation of environmental risks might offer upside prospects.
3. Drop in Oil: A dramatic oil price drop would significantly reduce these companies' revenue and profitability. Oil price and the financial health of these companies are closely linked, given their heavy reliance on oil sales.
1. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): $250 billion
2. Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A): $150 billion
3. Chevron Corporation (CVX): $200 billion
4. BP PLC (BP): $85 billion
TOTAL= 700 Billion
EURUSD European stock markets traded largely lower Thursday ahead of a key policy-setting meeting by the European Central Bank, although strong earnings from oil major Shell helped the U.K. market outperform.
By 04:05 ET (08:05 GMT), the DAX in Germany traded 0.4% lower, the CAC 40 in France dropped 0.6%, while U.K.'s FTSE 100 traded 0.3% higher.
This week has seen a deluge of quarterly earnings, with mixed results, and Thursday has been no exception.
Shell (LON:SHEL) stock rose 4% after the heavily-weighted energy giant said it will buy back up to another $4 billion in stock and raised its dividend by 15% after posting another massive profit in the third quarter, reaping the windfall from high oil and gas prices.
By Peter Nurse
Investing.com*
Selection is not dead - and who said Growth ever was?INVESTMENT CONTEXT
Lithuania limited railway cargo transit across its territory from Russia to Kaliningrad; Russia dubbed the move as "openly hostile"
Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as China’s biggest supplier of crude oil. Russian crude exports to China surged 55% in May
Turkey, Sweden and Finland met to discuss Turkey's opposition to the Nordic countries bid to join NATO
French President Emmanuel Macron lost parliamentary majority as the country's far-right regained momentum after the Presidential elections held last April
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned against the bloc's "backsliding" into coal as the continent tries to weave itself off Russian gas
Terra/LUNA project staff were banned from flying as South Korean authorities deepen investigations on LUNA's demise
PROFZERO'S TAKE
It's hard to look at the EU without feeling something disruptive is about to happen. The bloc's inflation rate is not too far from that of the U.S. (8.1% vs. 8.6%, respectively) - yet the ECB's base rate, even after the 25bps hike earlier in June, is still negative by 25bps, while the Fed is already pricing cash at 150bps. The Fed has stopped sustaining fixed income markets by not rolling over USD 30bn Treasury bonds and USD 17.5bn MBS per month - the ECB tried to walk down the same path, only to face backlash from traders which sent interest rates on the weakest countries (Greece, Italy and Spain) to fresh highs. And as Russia curtails natural gas supplies, the countries that are most exposed to energy security - notably including Germany and Italy - scramble to diversify the energy mix, stumbling upon the harsh reality that coal will attract criticism from environmental groups (and voters) while LNG supplies need re-gasification plants - whose dearth won't be made up for until 2024.
Nigel Bolton, BlackRock's co-Chief Investment Officer, said on June 20 he saw "extreme valuation opportunity in European banks". ProfZero would really, sincerely like to share the same optimism - or opportunism
Speaking of Europe - after dismissing blockchain assets as "worth nothing" (and therefore badly needing regulation, in a rare moment of pure pneumatic vacuum of logics), ECB President Christine Lagarde said "While the correction in asset prices has so far been orderly, the risk of a further and possibly abrupt fall in asset prices remains severe". ProfZero concurs with Madame Lagarde - absent energy security and supply strategy, foggy monetary policy (to tighten or not to tighten?) and a much feared fragmentation of borrowing costs already happening, traders are having it good shorting European assets. If only there was a strong Regulator...
In the opinion of ProfZero, the market-wise breadth of June 13's collapse has a deeper structural meaning, and could in fact contain cues on portfolio construction to cross summer season: (i) Markets are not done pricing a recession, nor the Fed's and the ECB monetary policy. After the 50bps rate hike on May 5, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plunged 3.56% and 4.99%, respectively; after the 75bps rate increase on June 15, the indexes nosedived 3.27% and 4.08%, respectively. The Fed is meeting four more times this year; current expectations are for 75bps flat increases at each meeting. Should inflation fail to be absorbed in the economy, calling for more rate increases, equities would bear the brunt of the selloffs, (ii) Investors are starting to see Value as fairly priced - possibly signaling the beginning of reversal on commodity stocks, especially in the energy space. At the same time, Growth is not dead. Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) dropped less than 5% on average in the last month, compared to almost 15% by Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Petrobras (PBR), and Shell (RDS.A), (iii) It is still too early to construct risk positions. A clear trough has not been touched and even a touted recession has not materialized. No clear industrial path has emerged from the bear market; and without such, longs are but reckless positions. No time to cry; no time to risk either
Tanking Shell Shell is already investing in green energy methods and is for me the leader oil company who can adapt quickly. I see a great future Shell. In the short term I see the oil demand coming back when corona decreas.
Oil up 38% in 7 days! When to sell?Oil exploding higher again making a 7 day run of 38% and XLE running up 14%. Long-term XLE is my play, raking in the dividends but taking profits relatively soon might be wise. We are right at the resistance level for XLE that looks to be pretty heavy but that resistance isn't like the Ukrainian military so I think it's more likely we blow through that level if oil continues. it cannot continue at this pace for long and that's why I want to be taking profits.
If you're trading in the futures market then you have a much better chance of pulling in some high percentage gains in the short run as I believe somewhere above $150/ barrel you will find resistance and it will come crashing down. The question really is, where is the new support? As long as this war continues I think we will stay above $78/ barrel as the new support level. especially with inflation. If WW3 cracks off, all bets are off and I wouldn't see it falling below $100. That being said, XLE won't experience the same type of gains in the short run as a trade. As soon as oil sells off people will sell XLE hard because they are really betting on future gains of the sales of gasoline which won't be there if oil has come back down. The catch is if oil continues to stay elevated and without any subsidies from the government, then there will be less driving which means fewer sales and XLE will be falling.
This is why I think it's wise to take profits on the way up, find a huge sell-off and get back in position on the way down. As we are likely heading into a recession I may roll some of this into TLT for the short run as I exit don't he way up to potentially make some gains in TLT without taking the risk in XLE. As XLE falls when oil pops the lit off, that's when I take my gains in TLT and roll it into XLE again for a longer trade but increasing my position by 20-30%,
Shell medium term outlookThis is my analysis on Shell for medium-long term outlook investors. Not a recommendation for trading
$IFXY 62% Owned by Krisa/Cooley Biggest R/M or Holding CmpyKrisa Management and Carey Cooley own 62% of all Common Shares
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They have continually said that this will be their biggest merger out of all their shells
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In their most recent update they announced that the launch is getting closer and is almost ready. They are also working on two acquisitions already turning $IFXY into possibly a holding company for multiple acquisitions.
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"The $IFXY launch is getting closer. @CareyCooley is working hard on a deal to get his preferred COO on board. We are also trying to negotiate deals for our first two acquisitions."