This video is my strategic analysis for when I will be looking to buy my next real estate investment property. I use the Cash-Shiller Index, CPI, and charting techniques of mean reversion to create indicators I will follow in the years ahead as real estate trends downward following the rise in mortgage rates and fall in home prices.
Since Fed's tapering began in the end of 2021, mortgage figures have been in a mark up phase. There is still no indication of a correction. As a result of it, housing prices may not find support for new high levels. Monthly price changes in the negative territory are supporting this idea in the last months. However, the year over year housing price changes are...
we had a deep befor up trend i show you the way that can happen
We broke strong resident (1.35) just a quick break then take off my short term target is around 2.2 but if we broke chanell upside my target will change to 4-8-10-12-16
Shiller vs Spx adjusted for inflation showing--for once this year-- similar correcting price action suggesting 2021 will be a year to witness, fundamentally speaking that is. With real-yield negative, and bonds at all time lows, there remains no interest for anything relative to the inflated SPX.
In 1998, Robert Shiller--the Yale economist and Nobel Prize winner-- formalized that idea in a paper, "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook" and a book, "Irrational Exuberance." The latter made Shiller something of an economic prophet. In his book, which came out shortly before the dotcom crash, he warned that stocks were overvalued. What is...
Into December of 1919, the CAPE was at an all-time low. With so much focus on 1919 going into the COVID-19 pandemic among market commentary, the comparison that this chart allows to make is 1919 to 2019, with a suggestion of downtrend. If the SPX indeed returns to multiples in 1919, that would put a market valuation of the SPX at around $500 according to the...
Into December of 1919, the CAPE was at an all-time low. With so much focus on 1919 going into the COVID-19 pandemic among market commentary, the comparison that this chart allows to make is 1919 to 2019, with a suggestion of downtrend. If the SPX indeed returns to multiples in 1919, that would put a market valuation of the SPX at around $500 according to the CAPE...
Shiller vs. Spx for Aug 11th, 2020
You're speculating at record highs. The Fed's balance sheet declined for the second straight week as of Wednesday, by $12 billion to $7.1 trillion, as more foreign central banks declined to renew maturing currency swap agreements.Total liabilities for all commercial banks have ballooned to over $18 trillion or 83.7% of GDP. Without buybacks rushing through the...
Here's an update to the Shiller ratio, which of the most important ways to view the SPX in a single chart. I'lll be traveling today so I won't be able to tender for updates. Make sure risk-management is in check on all positions, and ensure that you are never risking more than 2% of your account's equity from a given positions stoploss minus entry to ensure you...
Barclays' CAPE Shiller ETN provides equal weighted exposure to the 4 sectors most undervalued (via cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio aka CAPE) with relative price momentum in the SPX500 Universe. So far it has been outpreforming the SPY CAPE has a 0.45% expense ratio vs the 0.095% of that of SPY Manage your own risk Much love GL HF xoxo snoop
Here's an update as of 13:49:50 (UTC) Fri Jun 19, 2020 the Shiller index which I formulated in the chart above with longer term timeframes to show the breadth of the situation. The U.S. equity market now appears "cheap" to many--the ones who have named this so called "V" shaped recovery in the U.S. equity markets, however it's important to keep context in mind...
Shiller v2 Updated for 13:41:28 (UTC) Wed Jun 17, 2020
01:01:52 (UTC) Sun Jun 14, 2020
Here's an update of the Shiller index which I formulated in the chart above with longer term timeframes to show the breadth of the situation. The U.S. equity market now appears "cheap" to many--the ones who have named this so called "V" shaped recovery in the U.S. equity markets, however it's important to keep context in mind when looking back at a decade of...