Shippingstocks
Defence companies looking good againConchin shipyard after a 100% rally entered consolidation phase afterwards. During the previous week bulls were able to close it above a recent resistance of 1120 making a strong candle. Stock becomes a buy above 1130 with a target of 1300 and stop loss below 1050
Shipping is a strong indicator!Shipping can be used a leading indicator to gauge where the market as a whole is going. Just like the XHB the home building chart, I don't trade this. I only use it a guide to get a into the drivers of the market. If shipping is up, then the markets will follow, is building up, so too will the market.
As we can see, shipping made a low last year in September and has made higher highs since then. we now just wait and watch the indicators for bullish crosses that seem to be building upward. A Stochastic cross above the 20 on this 3 week chart is what we are looking for and is considered bullish. Same with the MacD, we are looking for the beige line to cross the purple line. Once these happen on the three week we will then change to the monthly and look for the same.
The moving average I'm using is the CM_Ultimate_MA . Price action moving above this line and turning it green is a very positive move as well.
Once again to be clear, we have an up trend in the shipping, if it continues then the recession is likely over and the markets will move along with it. It will be even more likely on the monthly confirmation of price action and indicators.
I will link the XHB home builders chart I did last year down below.
Best regards in 23
WeAreSat0shi
(ASC) Ardmore Shipping CorporateASC is profitable, it has been delivering >5% EPS growth in the past 5 years and is projected to deliver >5% EPS growth in the future.
Debt/Equity ratio is <0.8x. I like it when it is less than 1x which means there is some liquidity there.
The shipping industry has been performing really well in the past couple of years due to rising shipping rates despite low volumes.
Even though the rates are declining with the easing of shipping interruptions, there is still high demand to ship globally.
As we go into Autumn and Winter, similarly there is an expected increase in LNG vessel demands.
$ZIM last chance to shine$ZIM is in for a long 3 quarters with global freight rates in the gutter but after a 75% move down and a really nice reaction to the last major level ($18-19) the major HTF bull div has a shot at playing out. Specifically with wall-street running away as the massive dividend is likely to be cut in Q1 (who cares)
The main thing to consider is if this is a hold or a swing trade and with the current macro environment I think it needs to be a swing trade OR long long term hold. For the long term hold you need to examine freight rates and what ZIM was doing in 2019 (exclude bubble data from 2020-2022) DYOR and see what you think. Worth a look IMO.
The main thing is the S/R level could not be more clear... above $18 upside potential is pretty good and below $18 downside is price discovery...
ZIM bounceNYSE:ZIM
I see ZIM stock fallowing Baltic Dry Index with a lag. As we observe a bounce in BDI we can expect the same in ZIM stock price.
From a technical point of view the same thing.
We are now in wave 5 of an impulse wave down. which could also be done.
So from wave analysis point of view we can expect a correction up, most likely to the minor wave 4 extreme. in the region of $34.
And financially the company is rock solid.
Disclaimer: This is my analysis and does not constitute financial advice.
8/31/22 ZIMZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. ( NYSE:ZIM )
Sector: Transportation (Marine Shipping)
Market Capitalization: 4.408B
Current Price: $36.09
Breakdown Price: $33.90
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $40.75-$51.80
Price Target: $19.50-$15.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 86-91d
Contract of Interest: $ZIM 12/16/22 30p
Trade price as of publish date: $2.50/contract
Regional Container Lines: Price Action and Areas of Interest It looks to me as if RCL is a corrective move to the downside.
RCL is interesting as price action brings the actively traded value of the stock down to 37 Baht, some 30 Baht away from it's all-time high. Despite convincingly bearish PA since August of 21' RCL has posted great profits, with higher revenue and somehow, a higher profit margin every quarter.
Their assets have grown significantly without trapping themselves in debt, while their cash and cash equivalents have grown almost 500% since 2015. The company could pay off all their 5.7 Billion of debt with just their cash. This is great, considering the tumultuous times we are in! They also have the cash to acquire more PPE (Which they have done).
In the short-term I think there is potential to find support at this level and potential for volume to move price to the upside.
4HR View: I'm using the 4HR view because the E of an ABCDE does not need to touch the upper trendline and I'm not entirely sure how high we go before the E is completed. It is also possible that we can have a "throw-over" of the upper trendline, in that case we can expect price to move lower than illustrated here.
As said in the beginning of this post, I think it is probable that we have PA moving to the downside. As an interested buyer I have outlined potential levels of interest. They're outline in the chart. This is my perspective from the 3D Chart.
EGLE showing relative strengthQuarter Positioning 250 USDs
Avg Price: 71.09
Stop: 64.70
Risk: 9%
Stock is showing relative strength vs market and vs other shipping stock. Portfolio today reversed so still playing very very small. Im glad I took profits on my oil stocks at the gap at the open.
Overall exposure: 12.85%
5/25/22 SBSafe Bulkers, Inc. ( NYSE:SB )
Sector: Transportation (Marine Shipping)
Market Capitalization: $571.751M
Current Price: $4.72
Breakout price: $4.85
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $4.20-$4.35
Price Target: $5.55-$6.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 287-295d
Contract of Interest: $SB 1/20/23 5c
Trade price as of publish date: $0.80/contract
5/18/22 SBLKStar Bulk Carriers Corp. ( NASDAQ:SBLK )
Sector: Transportation (Marine Shipping)
Market Capitalization: $3.267B
Current Price: $30.65
Breakout price: $32.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $30.55-$26.80
Price Target: $39.60-$40.00 (4th)
Estimated Duration to Target: 225-232d (4th)
Contract of Interest: $SBLK 11/18/22 30c
Trade price as of publish date: $5.00/contract
$GSL Buy the dip - global supply chain issues
- high rates in shipping locked
- 2022 estimates:
590M revenue
32% YoY revenue increase
65% YoY EBITDA increase
332M free cash flow
- either it should rebound from the support line of the channel or decline more towards the 200SMA where the entry point is even sweeter.
This is a nice BUY setup IMHO that satisfies both short term and long term factors
2/9/22 SBLKStar Bulk Carriers Corp. ( NASDAQ:SBLK )
Sector: Transportation (Marine Shipping)
Market Capitalization: 2.726B
Current Price: $26.66
Breakout price: $27.30
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $23.95-$21.95
Price Target: $30.70-$31.20 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 77-82d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $SBLK 5/20/22 25c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.00/contract
1/16/22 ZIMZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. ( NYSE:ZIM )
Sector: Transportation (Marine Shipping)
Market Capitalization: 7.554B
Current Price: $63.70
Breakout price: $64.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $61.50-$56.00
Price Target: $74.60-$75.80 (1st), $94.60-$96.40 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 59-61d (1st), 170-181d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $ZIM 3/18/22 75c, $ZIM 7/15/22 70c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.85/contract, $4.10/contract