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Shock

Invasion of Kuwait 1991 vs. Iran 2024Buildup prior to the invasion was a steady week of lower prices in January, until 17 Jan 1991 when coalition forces took control of skies over Baghdad and destroyed Iraqi air and ground forces. Overlay is Jan 1991. 17 Jan was the night invasion. 18 Jan the market took a moon shot. Once it became apparent that our guys were winning, bulls took over and the rise after the event was double the decline. The buying spree the day after the night bombing of Baghdad was phenomenal... a moon rocket. Be real careful shorting now. Soon it will become apparent the nutjobs cannot win these conflicts. Relief rally may reach new ATH at 5360+ within a few weeks. Everyone wants puts, all are short, VIX is jumping... that's not a good time to get short. Bottom of this shakeout sometime this week imo.
TVC:SPXLong
by DaddySawbucks
3
Stocks Peaked 20 Years Ago. US Perma-Bulls are Chasing a BubbleIn nominal terms, US stocks have gone higher and higher over the last 20 and 30 years. This is priced in US Dollars. Priced in terms of real money, stable money, the US stock markets and the US real economic growth peaked 20 years ago. Over the last 20 years we've printed a crap-ton of money to paper over the losses and make ourselves feel richer, but it's all been an illusion. A money printing fueled bubble. And the most recent cycle peaked in September of 2018, when the Russell first entered into a bear market and when the gold bull left the train station. In terms of what's happening right now: The Russell is sitting at the top end of its range right underneath major resistance. Without big stock buybacks driving the market there won't be enough buying power to send it to new highs. The Fed can print as much money as it wants but it can't stop a massive global shock. Money velocity is at ZERO. Doesn't matter how much money you print, you can't fix a solvency problem with more liquidity. You can only buy yourself short slivers of time. Its only a matter of time before economy gravity is respected and the global markets, including the US equities, get absolutely cratered.
TVC:RUTShort
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
1
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Where to from here - the chart will tell usBITCOIN: BTCUSD Bitcoin found in Neutral Shock ! Well stops have held up nicely if still long here. But day traders daring to short off the top may well have been hit. It overshot, but now interestingly is giving the line more serious respect. We should too. It's now kissing the parallel having shot through earlier and then recoiled to first support (just above, in fact). So this gives swing longs who missed the chance to close out earlier another gift. It could be making another flag here, p to now, prior to blasting straight hrough the upper parallel. That would be nuts to even contemplate with a 'normal' 'stock/instrument, soon to be 'future'.But this is Bitcoin, we probably need no reminding by now. So either close out here but be ready to get long again once we see the upper parallel broken and then used as support on the next decline...if we see it, it could be quite clean and it could also be very messy, spending quite some time deciding and flipping either side. The nature of the beast. Downside girst support for day traders is 12540 and then the last breakout line at 12318...can easily dip back to the lower pair of parallels if it cannot attract buyers here pretty soon now...if we see this develop we look to buy again there.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
2
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Still stuck in neutral but not for long UPSIDE from here Stuck in Neutral Still - Shock...since when was Bitcoin neutral? Bitcoin is doing its best to defy the bears and is technically sound above 6440. It's still a buy on dips to the pivot at 6470-6440 with stops just under 6420 for small loss if wrong But trade is slow and whilst below that old dynamic support at 6585 now it's still twitchy and vulnerable - but once 6640 is broken on the upside it will likely push on to 6730-6750 quickly and then come off again as day traders unload at 6730-6750...if it does this look to see if it starts to find support around 6580, off that old medium term dynamic and if so look to buy with stop no more than 50 points under the line - so long as the pivot at 6470-7440 holds, there's still a chance that Bitcoin is building up momentum for a surge higher - an AbC pattern with an upside target at 7450-7550. But that only stands a chance if the near term double top at 6750 can be beaten, to set the move off and then major resistance potential at 6943 is broken on the upside. We can easily beat the double top but 6940-6950 is likely to prove difficult to break, almost certainly on the first attempt. To see that happen though, Bitcoin has to break above 6750 and then hold on the next retest as there's more resistance just above at 6810 - so if it breaks above the double top at 6750 and goes to 6810 , comes off and then holds up at 6750 it can be bought with stops about 50 points lower. Another way to play the breakout, much more straight-forward, is simply to follow a break above the little dynamic resistance line running down from the recent high if we see it. The stop can be quite tight under the line, targeting 6940 where look to close out (and short with stop 50 points above if a day trader) DOWNSIDE from here Looking to short if 6440 gives way for fast test of 6312 , closing out there as it could well bounce back up to 6440-6475, giving a second chance to short here with stops above 6500 for small loss if wrong. Then if 6300 gives way at any point we can turn more aggressive, with swing traders joining the rout, looking for another, bigger decline back to 5747 most likely - a good trade if we see price action develop as above.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
3