Navigating the Growth Trajectory of On Holdings, Cloud or bust?Navigating the Growth Trajectory of On Holdings, a Rising Star in Athletic Footwear
Support Level: $23.86
Current Price: $27.70
Resistance Zone: $28.53 - $31.95
Target 1: $37.56
Resistance Level 1: $43.32
Resistance Level 2:46.27
Target 1 (Long Term): $50.94
Target 2 (Long Term): $71.96
On Holdings has rapidly become a market leader with its revolutionary On-Cloud running shoes, capturing global attention and propelling the company's valuation to an impressive 7.8 billion Swiss francs. The strategic focus on marketing and brand development has positioned On as a force to be reckoned with in the athletic footwear industry.
The company's valuation metrics reveal a steep but justified premium: 6.4 times revenue, 139 times earnings, or 47 times EBITDA. This premium is a testament to On's exceptional growth trajectory. In the last 12 months, the company achieved revenue of 1.2 billion, a net income of 58 million, and an adjusted EBITDA of 165 million.
Technical Analysis and Growth Metrics:
On's exceptional growth is underscored by a staggering 69% increase in revenue from 2021 to 2022, with a further projected growth of 39% in 2023. Positive product reviews and robust Google search data further validate this growth momentum. In comparison to industry giants like Nike and Lululemon, On boasts strong gross margins of 56%, setting it apart as a formidable competitor. (Nike is just 44% and lululemon is 55%
However, rapid expansion comes at a cost, and On's negative cash flow is attributed to its aggressive expansion in China and the opening of new stores. With 371 million in cash on the balance sheet, there's a likelihood that the company may seek additional capital for sustained growth.
Sustainability as a Key Differentiator:
On Holdings not only focuses on growth but also emphasizes sustainability. The latest shoe, incorporating 44% recycled materials, showcases the company's commitment to environmental responsibility. This dual emphasis on growth and sustainability positions On as a forward-thinking brand in tune with modern consumer values.
Investment Outlook:
Despite the steep valuation and potential cash flow challenges, On's growth trajectory remains impressive. Assuming a 40% revenue growth this year, followed by 30% and 20% in subsequent years, On could reach revenues of 11.5 billion by 2033. Applying a conservative 10% net margin and a 20x multiple, the company's estimated worth would be around 24 billion, offering an investment return of approximately 11.9% per year. Although this may not seem great long term, the short-term growth is too good to pass up.
In conclusion, On Holdings presents a cautiously bullish investment opportunity, given its remarkable growth and market dynamics. However, it's essential to recognize the speculative nature of this assessment, and investors should conduct thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions. As On continues to blend innovation, sustainability, and the Athlete Spirit, it stands poised to redefine the future of athletic footwear and potentially deliver compelling returns to investors.
