NZDUSD - H4 - Moving averages ( 30/50/100 )- As we can see there is a strong move from the sellers on the pair, you see that with the strong candles at two different spots
- With that, the pair formed two Tops, defined at the first level of moving averages ( level 30 ),not trespassing the level 50, creating some resistence levels.
- We could see too that the moving averages are leveled, and parallel, that is a good sign, to me represent some stability on the pair, and on the trend, that seems Bearish for now.
Shooting Star
Ibex 35 Bearish reversal - shooting starMás claro, chorizo pamplona.
The shooting star is a bearish reversal pattern that looks identical to the inverted hammer but occurs when price has been rising.
Its shape indicates that the price opened at its low, rallied, but pulled back to the bottom.
This means that buyers attempted to push the price up, but sellers came in and overpowered them. This is a definite bearish sign since there are no more buyers left because they’ve all been murdered.
CADJPY SELL BROKE OUT OF WEDGE TREND
HIT SUPPORT AND WHEN BULLISH, HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW FORMED A SHOOTING STAR CANDLE STICK. FURTHERMORE THIS IS A STRONG CANDLESTICK SIGN OF A REVERSAL IN TREND.
WE HAVE ALSO JUST HIT THE 50% MARK IN FIBONACCI MEANING WE COULD EITHER GO BEARISH FROM HERE, OR IT MIGHT GO BULLISH AND THE 61.8% MARK AND OUR RESISTANCE LEVEL THEN BE A STRONG BEARISH TREND.
WE SHOULD GO BEARISH AND HIT THE 78.737 (-27.00 MARK).
US 30 Shooting Star above .786 Fibo: Graveyard Doji or Bull Run?Chart says all. Let's get confirmation with a nice juicy red Bear Engulfing Doji. Sand P pivoted EXACTLY at 0.786 on 2812 today- fantastic!
Pos: Shorted QQQ, Long TECS. Not investment advice, trade at your own risk, but it's where I placed my bets.
Gaps tend to get filled, if gap up fills by gap down, we get island reversal with a graveyard... We at the end of an extended 5th EW. GLTA!
EURGBP SHORTAs you can see on my daily chart a shooting star was formed and this pair is now showing very bearish signs. I shared this short trade in the morning with my group members and it is looking very promising. I have set 3 TP zones for this trade and have a number of positions opened.
Trade safe and good luck!
EURAUD 1:4 Risk Reward SHORTAUD STRENGTH
- On the 20/02/2019 The Conference Board leading index forecasted an expansion on the Australian economy. This leads to a slight long bias on AUD.
- The Logikfx score also shows a strong reading at 20, increasing from 0 earlier in the week. This strength shift indicates a potential change in cash flow to the Aussie economy.
EUR WEAKNESS
- on the 22/02/2019 the German IFO Institue for Economic Research released a lower than expected score. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.
- Logikfx score for EUR is sitting at -31 showing a contracting economy.
Technical Formations
- The combination of trendline hits and evening start formations sets up for an excellent short opportunity.
Trade already entered, waiting for final TP area to be hit.
Attempt to catch the short-term trend reversal/correctionAfter the strong up move that lasted for quite a while without any significant pullbacks, the shooting star pattern appeared in the "grey area" of assumed resistance.
1)Going short with my Stop loss over the high of the shooting star.
2)The profit target is based on the assumed 50% correction and technical structure.
TRX Rally - Correction Incoming?Analysis on the Hourly:
Here we can see a shooting star formed with high volume, this indicates that a lot of selling was done at this point.
If we watch the rsi closely, it formed a double top, which indicates going down.
Now there's two possibilities:
1) Either it keeps going up and touches 652-655 (Fibonacci cluster) ,
2) Or we have a short-term correction to the 570-575.
If 2) occurs, we need to watch that level closely, and find a bullish candle with good volume in order to enter a possible trade to 652-655.
Also, keep in mind that in the 4 hour timeframe, if it forms a hanging man, most likely 2) will occur.
I will keep updating!
If you want to share your ideas , comment down below and like if you enjoyed this analysis.
GBPUSD Long After Short Fakeout on H1So dusting off the old charts here.
My Script is for entry predictions.
After the H1 candles called a short twice i went down to the M30 which put in a shooting star . So i took my loses and went long 2 micros. This is the first time I've traded since early to mid summer.
Went down to the M15 and got a buy signal.
Went down to the M5 for closer monitoring. See flag forming.
Confirm Bullish Pennant . Measure mask whip out the fibs. Notice Retracement to below bottom of where i considered above the pennant with lowest possible entry. Stack one micro.
Should be a nice ride. Trendline broken and all.
GBPUSD Long After Short Fakeout on H1
S&P 500 Has Entered a Bear MarketI believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634
Instead of the Bitcoin Daily Update we are going to take a look at the S&P 500 because today was a very important day.
Previous analysis: Called a top on December 7th
Position: Short SPXUSD from $2,639
Patterns: Weekly H&S with abbreviated right shoulder “I love abbreviated right shoulders” -Peter Brandt | Daily Wyckoff distribution breakdown | Trendline breakdown
Horizontal support and resistance: Using high of 2018 and low of 2008 the 0.786 fib = $2,453. Could be a good spot for a redistribution type bounce / consolidation
SPXUSDSHORTS: “There is a problem, almost nobody is short.” Indicative of a top and also could spell trouble for support if the shorts aren’t there to cover.
Short term trend (4 day MA): Bearish
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Bearish
Long term trend ( 50 day MA): Recent death cross with 200 (200 just turned bearish)
Overall trend: As bearish as it gets
Volume: Volume on today’s candle was very real
FIB’s: Using high of 2018 and low of 2008 the 0.786 fib = $2,453
Candlestick analysis: 12m shooting star. Only other one I can find came in 1929 (see below)
Ichimoku Cloud: See daily and weekly cloud’s below
TD’ Sequential: Monthly red 3. Weekly red 3. Daily red 4.
Bollinger Bands: Looks like it is starting to stick to the bottom band. On daily and weekly.
Trendline: Brokedown Oct 22nd and retested on Dec 3rd
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bearish
Parabolic SAR: $2,703
RSI: Just brokedown 30 on daily. Just brokedown 35 on weekly.
Stochastic: Monthly sell nailed it, weekly is already oversold.
Summary:
“The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates for the fourth time this year. The Fed increased the target range for its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a new band of 2.25%-2.5%, putting the Fed funds rate at its highest level since the spring of 2008. All ten voting members of the FOMC voted in favor of Wednesday’s decision.” (2)
While chairman Powell appeared nonchalant about the news, the markets were far from it. After starting the day up more than 1% there was a quick reaction to the other side. Many were waiting to sell that news. I was one of them, adding to my short exposure at the daily close.
The US could barely afford it’s liablities at record low interest rates. The 10 trillion dollar question is: how are the going to be able to afford them now?
Furthermore the interest rate on the 3 month treasury yield is increasing while the 30 year continues to decrease. If this continues we will get an inverted yield curve.
The feds pulling a rabbit out of the hat during the fourth quarter meeting was the last hope to reverse from the death cross and Wyckoff Distribution breakdown as far as I was concerned. That didn’t happen and now I am very positive we have seen a top and are in for another prolonged recession which could perhaps even lead to another depression.
Let’s start with the yearly candle which will be coming to a close in the next two weeks. I don’t think that long is needed to confidently state that it will be a nasty shooting star. The likes of which we haven’t seen in 90 years.
12 month shooting star S&P
Only other 12 month shooting star I can find
The weekly chart confirmed the h&s on Friday and this week created a new yearly low. This one gets bonus points for the abbreviated right shoulder:
“I love abbreviated right shoulders” -Peter Brandt
The Ichimoku Cloud is also very useful in calling reversals. As we see below it coincided nicely with Consensio, as well as the H&S breakdown.
Weekly Cloud
Daily Cloud
If you are not prepared for this and you understand / believe in the power of technical analysis then it is time to make some decisions. The indicators of a reversal outlined above are simply too much to ignore. However that does not mean you should make emotional decisions. The process that I went through is as follows:
(1) Exit all long exposure. Don't even long gold or silver. Why? Well look what happened to them in 07 - 08 before taking off.
(2) Do not enter short exposure unless you have an entry and fully understand your time horizon / price targets
(3) Tell friends and family to gtfo of the markets.
Sources:
(1) www.zerohedge.com
(2) finance.yahoo.com
GBPAUD 1H SHOOTING STAR CANDLE STRATEGYStep #1: Attach the Chaikin Money Flow Indicator on your Preferred Time Frame
Start first by preparing your charts ready for the battle. Simply attach the Chaikin Money Flow indicator on your favorite time frame. This is the only additional technical tool we’re going to use to confirm the validity of the bearish shooting star pattern.
Using the CMF indicator we accomplish one major thing.
The validity of the bearish shooting star will be confirmed or invalidate instantly as soon as the bearish inverted hammer develops on our Bitcoin candlestick chart. This means that the price won’t move any further from the ideal entry price.
Step #2: The Shooting Star Candle should come after a strong bearish trend
The location or in other words, where the shooting star candlestick develops matters a lot.
This whole ingredient is what makes the bullish shooting star candle performs with such a high degree of accuracy. We need a strong downtrend that has two important features:
The first part of the trend is a slow and steady move to the downside
The last part of the uptrend, prior to the shooting star candle, needs to be more volatile.
Basically, we’re looking for a full-blown market bottom where the bears are exhausted and reach a climax point.
Step #3: The CMF indicator must be above the 0 line once the bullish shooting star candle develops
The Chaikin Money Flow is a great tool to read and measure institutional accumulation-distribution activity in any market. Basically, a CMF reading above the zero line shows that the buyers have the upper hand and they took control of the market.
Notice that the bullish shooting star spotted satisfies all the requirements of a bullish inverted hammer. The shadows are at least two times longer than the body; small body; and very little upper shadow. This candle would have been more powerful if the closing price is above the opening price.
But it’s still a good pattern to trade due to all the other features.
Now, it’s time to highlight how to find the right entry point for bullish shooting star candlestick.
Step #4: Buy once we break the high of the Shooting Star Candle
Simply, place a buy stop order above the high of the shooting star. Nothing complicated about our entry strategy. It’s in line with the textbook rule.
Step #5: Hide SL below the low of the Shooting Star Candle.
Simply hide your protective SL below the low of the shooting star pattern. You can add a buffer of a few pips if you wish to protect against possible false breakouts.
Step 6: TP when we get inside the slow part of the prevailing trend or you choose your TP strategy.
The full-blown bottom creates the necessary space where the bulls would find no level of support to stop the drop. The last stage of a trend has been always more volatile. And, when combined with the reversal shooting star pattern, it makes for a killer trading strategy.
Reverse strategy for a Bearish Shooting Star Strategy.