Shooting Star
Bearish Wedge ~ Short SetupAfter the Shooting Star we had on a weekly, and the continuation of this ending this week before a long weekend on the NYSE, I believe the short-position could play out well.
The bearish wedge formed has a measured move to a 30K; which is coincident with 2021 heavy support. If we can see a test of 28K to freak people out and a close (weekly basis) above 30K. The momentum may shift back. For now, I am bearish.
#Bitcoin and the Weekly Shooting StarHi everyone,
Thank you for considering reading my idea. Please note that this is just my opinion, and I'm not saying that this is going to happen.
Note that I'm mid-term bearish on Bitcoin but long-term bullish. See related ideas below. My down candle is color green while the up candle is color red .
Who wants to see a shooting star? Well, just last week, we printed a shooting star. Let's go back to the basics! A Shooting Star is a bearish candle stick pattern; a sign of reversal. There should be a price action going up, the shooting star, before we go down.
I'm not sure if we can call the October 18, 2021 candle a shooting star but let's say it is. It still went up for 3 weeks but dumped down.
Were there any other instances that we had a shooting star candlestick?
On May 31, 2021, the shooting star candlestick is invalid because we were going down before we printed the candlestick.
On March 23, 2020, the shooting star candlestick is also invalid because we were going down before the candle. This is when COVID happened.
On June 24, 2019, the pattern is valid since we were going up before the candle, weeks after, we went down.
I don't want to sound like Dora here, but can you spot more shooting stars on the weekly timeframe before June of 2019?
What about now? Are we going to see liquidity grab first in the next few weeks before we really dump? Or are we just gonna dump all the way? How low is the dump? A shooting star unfortunately does not tell us how low but we can apply other indicators to that.
Thank you for reading my idea. Like this idea and follow me for more analysis like this. NFA . TAYOR. DYOR.
Cheers,
Juvs
+3.45% ROI thanks to a simple Daily Shooting Star reversal stratHi Traders,
STATEMENT
Let’s keep diving into the daily time frame to build an expectation of the direction the market could be heading to on the FX:AUDUSD pair.
A directional bia s is a powerful tool that can facilitate your trading journey when executing on lower time frames.
RATIONALE
Analyzing the daily time frame before thinking on taking a trade on a lower time frame can help you to:
1. spot robust areas of support and resistance ,
2. Avoid fading strong daily candles (high probability candles) that you wouldn’t be aware of if sticking to lower time frames.
3. Identify potential take profit placement .
THE PLAY
For this example, we will be checking at the FX:AUDUSD chart, and more precisely the Daily Shooting Star that was printed on 13th of January 2022.
1. First of all, on the daily time frame when I recognize a high probability daily candle -in this case, a D1 Shooting Star - I ask myself following questions:
a. Is the candle placed at a significant level? *Yes, on a resistance level.
b. Did the price rejected a significant level? *Yes, it rejected a resistance area.
2. I draw a level from the candle low.
3. As we are on a Bullish trend since 6th of December 2021, I’m conscious that I’m trying to go against the trend. When I play reversal I always pay attention to the D1 EMA 21 . I noticed that reversal have a higher probability of success when the distance from the candle low to D1 EMA 21 is equal to 1 ATR (considering a lenght of 20 in the setup of the indicator).
In this situation we 1 ATR (20) corresponds to 60,4 pips. And when measuring the distance between the candle low and D1 EMA 21 we have 60,6 pips. It means that we have enough space to be playing the reversal.
When dropping down to the H1 time frame , we can clearly see that price is not above resistance level and stands on a support level, meaning that the only way for us to execute a trade is to way for the price to:
1. Create a break of market structure (breaking support level),
2. and print a lower low and a lower high .
Beside that, when playing reversal I like to have an extra confluence by looking at the RSI and seeking for a divergence (it won’t appear everytime).
Another level that should be drawn in this kind of setup is the candle high from previous day before D1 candle shooting star happening. With all our level marked we can now wait for the price to develop.
We can see a break of market structure happening (BMS) and a lower low getting printed:
Then, at 10:00 we have our entry when a lower high is printed and the H1 candle closes as a Shooting Star. Additionally we have 2 extra confluences: FIB 0.5 level and H1 EMA 21 rejection .
Last but not least, our Take Profit is placed at the low of the previous candle before the D1 Shooting Star:
THE RESULT
Price hit take profit after 9 hours for a ROI of 3.45% :
CONFLUENCES SUMMARY
On D1:
1. Directional Bias: D1 Shooting Star on resistance level.
2. Enough space for reversal between D1 EMA 21 and Candle Low.
On H1:
1. RSI Divergence.
2. Break of Market Structure.
3. Lower Low and Lower High.
4. Fib 0.5.
5. H1 EMA 21.
6. Price action: H1 Shooting Star.
YES! WE'RE SURE, ABSOUTELY CERTAIN, WE SHOULD SHORT NOW!!!LOL, follow-up to a recent post. We got a shooting star Doji on the daily 30 Dec at ATH retest and fierce EOD sell.
Looks like Thursday's gap was Exhaustion, filled EOD and sold lower. I be Shorting any subsequent rally into the New Year!
This ain't advice, you could lose a lotta damned money doing this! Trade at your own risk, GLTA!!
Shooting Star on SPX MonthlyThere is a shooting star candlestick developing on the SPX monthly chart (I use SPX500USD for my charting here).
Because we are at the end of november, unless we have significant amounts of upward momentum soon (I.e. on Monday and Tuesday) then this will leave a shooting star as November's candlestick.
This is a very bearish signal.
You can see from here that MACD is very toppy.
However, if we zoom out to put this into context....
MACD is significantly more overbought than it was during the pre-credit crunch period and more overbought than any time between 2010 and 2021.
As such, this looks like a potentially bearish reversal lining up for the new year.
My theory is that the panic over the African covid variant (which appears to be vaccine resistant) could spook markets just as credit risk and a Chinese slowdown takes effect.
As always, do your own research.
The weekly candles are not looking good!So after reaching to the previous high in April ($64,854), Bitcoin has made 2 suspicious pin bars or 2 shooting stars, whatever suits you, and tomorrow it’s about to close under it (I’m not sure)! That can’t be good in short term. I think the price could go for a little vacation to $53,000 (a solid high) and rest. But don’t worry, the weekly uptrend would still be sound. Pleas tell me what you are thinking.
Learn To Trade Technical Analysis Hammer & Shooting StarHey Traders today I wanted to go over what I believe is one of the best ways to trade any market with Japanese Candlesticks using hammers and shooting stars. Normally you want the wick of the candle to be at least twice the size of the body of the candle. Alot of times they can lead to explosive moves in the markets. So lets dive in and see how to use this powerful technique in your trading arsenal.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
SPX: When will it drop again?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today!
It seems we see a bearish sign on the SPX, indicating a possible top (spinning top?), but I wouldn’t be too excited about it. After all, the index already did a similar pattern last Tuesday (it even more bearish, as it was a shooting star), and it was just a bear trap, as we thought.
What’s more, it is always important to analyze the hourly chart before any conclusion.
In the 1h chart, we don’t see any bearish structure yet, and we only see a healthy bull trend. As long as the index keeps doing higher highs/lows, the trend won’t reverse.
As stated by the 1st tenet of the Dow Theory: Trends persist until a clear reversal occurs . So far, I see no clear reversal. We have two support levels to keep our eyes on: The 21 ema, and the 4,567. If the index loses both supports, probably we’ll see some pullback in the daily chart.
For now, let’s just follow it closely, and if you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates on stocks and indices. Also, support this idea if it helped you!
Have a good day.
Warning Signs for BTC short term drop!Bitcoin is showing some Strong reversal signs for at least short-term drop.
Let's look at all those points that might be pointing towards a pullback or short-term drop for BTC -
1) Shooting Star or Inverted Hammer on Weekly of Bitcoin and on same time Bitcoin went up with decreasing and low volume which is VERY WORRISOME :-
2) Head & Shoulder on Hourly :-
3) Potential Completion of Wave 1 in Bull case for BTC :-
4) Potentially Irregular running flat or maybe Expanded flat possibility for Bitcoin :-
5) 10 Years Yields might be looking bullish for at least short term and might be going upto 2.4/2.5 and touch highs of downward channel :-
6) US Dollar also looking somewhat bullish for short term :-
7) Big Money doesn't have good reasons to buy Bitcoin at high levels.
8) This is Earnings season for market and especially this week has big companies earnings so you never what might happen.
I am creating this post to raise some points that might be valid for bear case for Bitcoin for short term. Feel Free to share your thoughts in the comment section below.
However, I would love to be wrong as i am long as well for long term and would love if Bitcoin continue it's Bullish run as it would be better for all of us.
In the end, stay safe. And Enjoy everyone.
BTCUSD - W1 - SHOOTING STAR + DOJI !WEEKLY (W1)
Prior week a "SHOOTING STAR" had been triggered which has been followed, last week by a "DOJI" which is adding further pressure to the downside
as an uncertainty and indecision is growing...
So what next ?
Well, in looking in this weekly picture, the first significant support level @ 58'100 has been tested with an intraweek low seen last week @ 57'500.
As long as the BTCUSD stays on a weekly closing above 58'100, it is OK for a the time being.
A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF 58'100 WOULD PUT THE FOCUS ON THE 53'200-52'300 TRADING RANGE !!!
Interesting to note that the top of weekly clouds support area is around 43'300 which is also the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement of the 28'600-66'994,
June-October rally.
DAILY (D1)
Looking briefly at the daily picture, the ongoing downtrend channel is intact, and levels to watch in this time frame are the following :
UPSIDE : 63'000
DOWNSIDE : 60'000
A daily closing level, either above 63'000 or below 60'000 would open potentially the door for a 4'000 points move, targeting respectively a retest of former
high around 67'000 and a move towards 56500/56'000 on the downside.
4 HOURS (H4)
Watch the clouds !
Have a great week.
Take care and all the best.
Ironman8848