SHOP
Support and Resistance for SHOPThe dashed lInes repersent some weaker support and resistance where I expect some price reactivity. The solid lines are historical supports and I expect for rejection or larger moves to take place off of. Lows have been swept up last week with large volume which could be a combination of short covering or confident buyers adding to their position. This is significant because it shows that despite the markets downturn, there is still some bullish activity in the stock. This stock has a beta of 1.56 so it will be generally more prone to market volatility. After a worse than expected Earnings report coming in at .99 a share (1.24 expectation) the stock corrected from its pre earning run up. From here a full retrace to 1204 which was a generally accepted price between buyers and sellers is possible. There is also the possibility that price runs back up to the gap at 1322-1335, this could be a very reactive area. Sitting under the December highs I would say that there isn't much of a bull bear bias for this stock quite yet as the market corrects and with the bad earning's report. Note that while Shopify is a leader in it's category- companies like e-Bay, Amazon, and Walmart all offer integrated e-commerce. Furthermore BigCommerce now offers their sellers a chance to directly market and sell their products on the Walmart Marketplace which could be huge for the brand.
SHOP - Nice bounce- going to $1460If you saw my previous post "SHOP- The Big Picture" then you would see that SHOP has bounced at one of my trend lines higher than I expected. I have followed this stock and made a lot of money on it since the $200's. I really think after Friday and the bullish close that we are going to $1460 were there will be resistance. Can we break through the 52 Week High recorded recently? That will be a major test. If it does pass $1500 the next peak will sell off so be aware of that.... GL!
Evening star pattern, up 25% just in February prior to earningsSHOP has been a beast for along time! It has runup 25% just in February, so be careful for earnings on Feb 17th. The past 3 days show a bearish evening star pattern (not 100% perfect). I calculated the implied move to be 6% or $90 dollars. Options - 1068 in $1500 weekly calls, over 1600 in $1200 weekly puts. If you know how to play iron condor, I think that is best earnings trade o capture premium. They beat last earnings and raised expectations , its going to be hard to repeat, imo. Have a great long wknd!
SHOP - The big pictureShop is having a great run, but a pullback is in the near term whether after even a higher spike on earnings or prior to earnings . These are the long term trend lines where the bounce from a pullback has happened over the long haul. I feel that somewhere between 1250-1300 will be the next bounce. Someone posted that it will pullback over 50%????? ah NO WAY! Even in COVID the lowest percentage lost was 44%. The only way that will happen again is in a market crash. So this is the big picture..... GL!
Definetly going up into earnings - Triangle pattern I think we all agree the wonderful triangle will take us to new highs. I have been trading and following SHOP since the $200's and she has rarely disappointed. I was hoping after last earnings she would spike as usual, but no. This time she will! :) GL! and $$$$$
SHOP Short going into EarningsNYSE:SHOP has showed weakness in its consolidation and appears to have distribution of shares taking place. The volatility is evident in its volume and jumpy prices overnight and otherwise. It closed above its weekly value and short 2 weeks before earnings makes sense due to the likely increase in option premiums. While the market Shopify covers has become saturated and profitable, if there is anything less than expected earnings reported a short now could be a nice leg into a longer term position. My two short term targets are on the chart one at the bottom of it's trading range and one right above an area I expect to hold some nice liquidity. My long term target (post earnings) would be closer to the November highs for Shopify.
Shop on the move! Squeeze and S Triangle on the Day.We had a Squeeze on the week and are about to have a Squeeze on the Day both with Momentum above zero :) . We are coming to the end of the S Triangle and with that are going to come new highs. The next couple weeks should be interesting.... GL!
BTW... I own SHOP, AAPL, ENPH, TSLA, and of course SPCE (Goldmine!) All are on the move and I recommend all of these. Other that SPCE who's profits will surge later this year all of these have high Revenue and Net Profit Margins.
Others I follow and buy or swing time to time MKTX, QCOM, SNE, TTD, NIO, CRWD, DDOG, SQ, IRBT, MA, V, GS, JPM and of course AMZN.. and many more
Psychology For AllLet's face it COVID has been challenging for many people and someone reading this might need a pick me up!
This is a different post related to the noise coming from the media. I am here to share three stories related to trading and investing... stories of success trusting your gut not the noise.
My Bitcoin Story... In 2017 I tried the online game second life, not by choice but was doing research regarding the construction of these virtual communities. A player showed me how she was building homes for people and being paid in Bitcoin. I was blown away and was always searching for a side hustle. I began to build and collect BTC as a hobby and something I began to enjoy (always was a gamer..still am lol). I was fascinated by the DW at this same time. I did not invest in stocks and did not even have a trading account at this time... only GIC... I only bought and received bitcoin. I never ever thought Bitcoin would appreciate the way it did. Since then I sold my BTC at 18,000. I have bought back twice since then once in 2019 when it went oversold, and again during the COVID sell-off. FYI I am out for now but still own my second life coins I cherish as a memory now.
A year or so ago, the motley fool paid service issued a "sell" alert on TSLA when the share price was around $175. Anyone familiar with the Motley SA services knows it is pretty rare they issue a sell alert in the paid services. I sold my shares a year and a half later for over $1,000 before the split.
Citron, here is a story. I have owned many shares of Shopify since the beginning as I felt I knew this area well. At around $190 Andrew Left short Shopify “Left is so convinced that he is right about Shopify that Citron has pledged to donate $200,000 to the Robin Hood Foundation, a charitable organization if Shopify is trading over $200 in 12 months.”.... lol my shares are in a better place now well over $1,100. These guys play dirty do not listen to any free information. Still have yet to see the donation...
My biggest gains have always involved some Pepto and lost sleep. It is always easy to look back and pump your ego but I look at my journals and this was far from the case at those exact times.
Think outside the box, trust the process, and most importantly trust yourself over everything and everyone!
People will always hate on you if you win or lose. Sadly jealousy is the most overused emotion.
“Failure will never overtake me if my determination to succeed is strong enough.”
1/4 WATCHLIST + MARKET OUTLOOK** THIS IS PURELY OUR OPINION AND WE ARE NOT LIABLE FOR YOUR TRADING DECISIONS **
Happy New Year! Looking forward to the first trading session of 2021. Let's get to it!
If you've been following our analyses on TradingView, you'll know that we have been very bullish in the short-term, and that we believe we are about to experience (or in the midst of experiencing) the last phase of any bull cycle - a blow-off top . You can see in the image above that we've had this strong support line (red) since the coronavirus low. On Thursday, we closed above the major resistance (green trendline - which has actually now turned into support). This is a very bullish signal. As long as the red support line holds, we will maintain a bullish bias.
However, the market doesn't care about our opinion and will do what it wants. So we will trade the price action we see!
WATCHLIST
Note that these levels are for intraday options/equity trades. These are not swing levels.
MU calls over 75.70
TIGR calls over 8.5
SHOP puts under 1128
SQ puts under 214.25
COST calls over 377.45
PYPL calls over 235
ROKU puts under 330.75
TSLA calls over 720
WKHS puts under 19.7
ZM puts under 336
Lastly, we opened a position in GLD on Thursday - we will likely add to the position tomorrow with a break of 179.
Have a great week of trading!
Shopify Strong Support Long & Possible Continuation Play
SHOP Daily timeframe seems to be testing top of previous range which is a strong support
Volume dropped until last hour
Bullish divergence on hourly RSI
Bullish volume spike last hour of the day (highest hour volume of the day)
My target is previous resistance range
This Is Not Finacial Advise
SHOP@1172:Retracement likely to $1000 from a 40% gain of Nov LowThe stock gained near 40% from its Nov low of 860 to a recent high of 1285, propelled by a 3D Squeeze that fired for 7 bars. Squeeze usually fires for 7 to 8 bars, so we are likely entering a consolidation phase with a probable retracement to $1000 or 50 MA.
It's Stoch/RSI has a good history of forecasting price trajectory and the last candle also hinted at a high open/low close.
SHOP is very liquid and not subject to a short squeeze, other than enthusiastic buyers who have demonstrated less power to move growth stocks in the past week or so. There is a hint of rotation from high powered names to companies with real profit.
Only clear skies ahead?Our range play has turned into a full continuation phase to the upside. We couldn't have predicted this strong of a bounce it has even outperformed AMZN. I could list a series of "fundamental stories" for why it has had a great run but when you trade with a model you don't have any. As long as shop holds above its previous range state and the net up vs down volume stays positive we will continue to hold.