Shopify $SHOP nearing pivot pointThe e-commerce giant is been behaving very well since its first breakout from the $1,290 resistance. Now is working its way to make a new ATH with higher lows and respecting its $1,500 support. To confirm the buy zone between $1,650 and $1,730, the MACD is making a buy signal with a bullish crossover. Also the relative strength of NYSE:SHOP against AMEX:ARKF is really good, it needs to breakout from the peanant patern it formed to be even better. I'd like to add that the IBD RS rating is 83, that means that its performance is in the top 83% of all stocks over the past year.
So, there are two ways to play this. One would be just to wait for the breakout from the $1,650 resistance or, to buy 1/2 of the position today and add the rest when that breakout happens. The bad thing for the second approach is that the buying volume for today is not that great. So, I'll wait for the closing price to see if its really worth to be agressive.
SHOP
$EBAY: Tapering proof? With Jackson Hole this week looking to create rotation in certain names, I believe you may be able to look beyond it to mid caps like EBAY who have been showing a tremendous amount of relative strength recently against the broader indices and I wonder if there's a lot more left in the tank. After ETSY's earnings went off in a strong way, we'll see if names like this have even more life post-COVID
SHOP at or close to 1500-1510 can be considered for shortsIf you have long positions in SHOP, consider hedging your position with puts for the near term. We can have a nasty pull back with squeezes and weekly is still too extended from the mean. A reversion to mean on SHOP would translate to 1378 as the first price target and we would still be in the long term bullish cycle.
$AAPL $CRWD $PTON $SHOP I OptionsSwing WatchlistAAPL 1D I Seeing unusual activity betting on a break from ATH with earnings coming. Price target is near $155, but the RSI is already showing a bearish divergence.
CRWD 1D I Last week we picked up unusual activity betting on the $280 and $300 strike on CRWD. We expect CRWD to break the trend line and head to $300 before ER.
PTON 1D I Seeing a possible inverse H&S on PTON. With the Delta variant causing more lock downs we can expect covid stocks to inch higher.
SHOP 1H I SHOP calls above $1,450 gave a 12% or $200 move last week. With earnings coming we don't expect a big move on SHOP as it was already made last week.
SHOP Bearish for this week The shark patter matches the fib retracement and confluence with trend line and VWAP BAnd on 1550 level. We all know it is going there . The rest of the moves I hope will catch as well. I have been short for some time now because did not bother to make my homework I hope others will benefit at that point . Shop IS Crazy so be patient and quick !!!
$AAPL $ABNB $MSFT $SHOP I OptionsSwing WatchlistAAPL 1D I After catching the break to the upside on AAPL, it seems a bit overextended. Our price target is near $155, the RSI is already showing a bearish divergence.
ABNB 1D I Expecting a run up into earnings on 08/12. $130 has to hold or it could flush. Watching for a possible reversal with volume around this area.
MSFT 1D I MSFT has been trading within a channel since the end of 2020. A bearish divergence is present and a pullback is expected soon.
SHOP 1H I Watching above $1,450 for calls, and below $1,425 for puts. Risky plays as it leads into earnings. We are seeing a possible bull flag or descending H&S.
Upwork $UPWK is trying to follow through NASDAQ:UPWK is in a clear uptrend and last week made a good breakout from a large base in which I took a position. On the last 10 trading days, the tech stock has 5 days up and 5 days down. Is a little unclear for me if it can hold gains so, my stop is at breakeven. I have a price target of $62.18, but if it continues to move up strong enough I'll sell have my position and hold the other half.
This stock has strong revenue growth and very good relative strength against it sector. NASDAQ:GIGE is an ETF concentrated in global companies that directly participate in revenue generation from “gig economy” such as: web-based stores, auction sites and app-based platforms. Some of its holdings are NYSE:SHOP , NYSE:TWTR , NASDAQ:TWOU , among others.
Fairy DustTo keep it simple, fair value or intrinsic value for a stock can be measured by calculating earnings with a reasonable long term growth rate.
Some tech stocks are currently enjoying extraordinary growth rates averaging around 40%. Some are even higher.
Tesla has an earnings growth rate for the current year of 99.6% and the PE ratio is 684.15 at the current price.
Fair value for the stock price on earth is currently $42.02 (or 136 DOGE)
Let's take a look at these popular names using the formula below:
Fair Value formula:
EPS = earnings per share
8.5 = time in years
G = long term growth rate
FV = EPS X (8.5 + 2G)
Then you adjust for corporate bond yields, the alternative, "safe" investment
Currently we could say they at around 4% yield
Final Value = FV * (4.4 / 0.04)
Below is a list of popular stocks with the current Fair Value assuming they can keep a long term earnings growth rate of 15% annually , which is still an impressive number compared to most companies. Long term it is virtually guaranteed that earnings will decline from current levels so it will be interesting to see this play out in the stock price.
In addition, included below is a chart of where fair value is and text of the current growth rate this year and the P/E ratio.
Data pulled from Yahoo Finance and TD Ameritrade API
Apple
Growth rate: 57.6%
PE ratio: 31.40
Adobe
Growth rate: 21.4%
PE ratio: 51.26
Amazon
Growth rate: 33.5%
PE ratio: 66.81
Facebook
Growth rate: 30%
PE ratio: 30.38
Google
Growth rate: 49%
PE ratio: 31.68
Microsoft
Growth rate: 34.9%
PE ratio: 37.78
Shopify
Growth rate: 11.8%
PE ratio: 114.8
Square
Growth rate: 78.6%
PE ratio: 395.75
Zoom
Growth rate: 40.1%
PE ratio: 134.18
The Trade Desk
Growth rate: -10.10%
PE ratio: 157.6
Nvidia
Growth rate: 58.3%
PE ratio: 97.12
PayPal
Growth rate: 21.9%
PE ratio: 66.13
Using this method the only growth stocks that have realistic upside are Apple, Facebook, Google and Microsoft.