Shopify
Shopify Q4 revenue tops Street estimatesShopify ( NYSE:SHOP ), the Canadian e-commerce giant, recently reported its fourth-quarter earnings, causing a stir in the market. While the company surpassed expectations in terms of earnings and revenue, its guidance for the upcoming quarter fell short, triggering a significant dip in its stock price. Let's delve deeper into what these results mean for investors and Shopify's future trajectory.
Strong Q4 Performance:
Shopify's ( NYSE:SHOP ) fourth-quarter results showcased impressive performance, with earnings per share reaching 34 cents adjusted, surpassing analysts' expectations by 3 cents. Revenue also exceeded forecasts, totaling $2.14 billion, fueled by a remarkable increase in gross merchandise volume (GMV) to $75.1 billion, a 23% rise from the previous year. This robust performance was primarily attributed to the surge in products sold on its platform, highlighting Shopify's continued relevance and dominance in the e-commerce landscape.
Guidance Woes:
Despite the stellar fourth-quarter results, investors were disheartened by Shopify's ( NYSE:SHOP ) conservative guidance for the first quarter. The company's projection of a "low-twenties percentage rate" revenue growth, coupled with a free cash flow margin expected to be in the high single digits, fell short of market expectations. Notably, Shopify's forecasted adjusted operating income of $178 million starkly contrasts with consensus estimates of $382 million, painting a picture of cautious optimism amidst market uncertainties.
Market Response:
The market response to Shopify's ( NYSE:SHOP ) guidance was swift and unforgiving. The company's shares tumbled approximately 10% in early trading following the earnings release, reflecting investor concerns over the gap between projected and anticipated performance metrics. Analysts from Wedbush emphasized Shopify's subdued outlook, highlighting the disparity between projected operating income and consensus estimates. This sentiment was echoed by the broader market, with many investors adopting a wait-and-see approach amidst lingering uncertainty.
Future Prospects:
Despite the short-term market turbulence, Shopify ( NYSE:SHOP ) remains well-positioned to capitalize on the burgeoning e-commerce landscape. The company's relentless focus on innovation and expanding its product offerings underscores its long-term growth potential. Additionally, Shopify's strategic divestiture of its logistics business signifies a commitment to streamlining operations and maximizing shareholder value. As the global economy continues to recover from the impacts of the pandemic, Shopify's ( NYSE:SHOP ) resilient business model and unwavering commitment to customer-centricity are poised to drive sustainable growth in the years to come.
Conclusion:
Shopify's fourth-quarter earnings report elicited mixed reactions from investors, with strong performance overshadowed by conservative guidance for the upcoming quarter. While short-term market fluctuations may unsettle some stakeholders, Shopify's robust fundamentals and strategic initiatives signal a promising future ahead. As the e-commerce landscape evolves, Shopify ( NYSE:SHOP ) remains a stalwart player, poised to capitalize on emerging opportunities and deliver long-term value to shareholders.
Shopify going higherShopify is driven by optimism this week and we are seeing price push higher and higher within the 20SMA area. There is also optimism in the US indices so to me all lights look green.... My target is at 95.00
Navigating the Melody of Shopify: A Symphony of Bullish ProspectAs e-commerce continues to shape the retail landscape, Shopify (NYSE: NYSE:SHOP ) emerges as a key player, catching the attention of investors with a crescendo of positive indicators and cautious notes. Let's delve into the harmonious symphony that surrounds Shopify's recent performance.
1. A Harmonious Prelude: Bullish Analyst Report
The stage is set with Wells Fargo analyst Andrew Bauch reaffirming an overweight rating on Shopify, echoing confidence in the company's growth potential. Bauch's upward revision of the price target from $80 to $90 per share suggests a bullish outlook, inviting investors to join the melody of optimism.
2. Crescendo of Holiday Cheer: Stellar Performance in Shopping Season
The sound of success resonates as Shopify's stock experiences a 67% surge in the last three months, fueled by a robust holiday shopping season. The company's impressive $9.3 billion in Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales strikes a chord, providing a strong prelude to what investors hope will be a resounding fourth-quarter report.
3. Anticipation Builds: Overture to the Earnings Report
The anticipation crescendos as investors eagerly await Shopify's fourth-quarter report scheduled for February 13. The positive momentum from the holiday season sets the stage for potential revelations about the company's financial health and growth trajectory. The earnings report promises to be a defining movement in the Shopify symphony.
4. Technical Dynamics: A Rising Trend Channel
The technical score unveils a rising trend channel in the medium to long term, a melody of positive investor sentiment and confidence. However, the cautionary notes underscore the importance of monitoring the support level at $79.52, introducing a nuanced counterpoint to the upbeat tune.
Conclusion:
As the symphony of Shopify plays on, investors find themselves at a crossroads, balancing the uplifting melodies of positive indicators with the sobering cautionary notes. The upcoming earnings report is poised to be a pivotal movement, shaping the narrative of Shopify's journey. In this complex composition, finding harmony involves staying attuned to both the highs and lows, navigating the melody with a discerning ear, and appreciating the nuanced dynamics that contribute to the overall performance of this e-commerce virtuoso.
Bullish on $SHOPNYSE:SHOP Shopify Inc. ( NYSE:SHOP ) is currently experiencing a bullish momentum in the market, with its recent breakthrough of the $68 resistance level.
This surge in price action has captured the attention of investors and analysts, as the stock is now targeting the next major price point at $89 (Will be taking partial profit at this level) and ultimately aiming for $150 price point.
The upward trend in Shopify's stock performance can be attributed to several factors, including the company's strong market presence and innovative approach to e-commerce solutions. As the digital landscape continues to evolve, Shopify has consistently demonstrated its ability to adapt and capitalize on emerging trends, making it an attractive option for investors seeking growth opportunities.
The recent financial results have showcased Shopify's robust revenue growth and strong market positioning. These factors have contributed to the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock, as investors anticipate further growth and potential price appreciation in the near future.
SHOPIFY More downside to come. Where to buy?Shopify (SHOP) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 13 2022 market bottom. It recently made a Higher High but not at the top of the pattern and started to pull-back, losing most of its strength and momentum as the 1D RSI dropped to 45.50 (neutral). The price is still above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which keeps it bullish but in our opinion it won't be for long as it has started to resemble the pull-back after the December 02 2022 High.
That was on the Channel Up first bullish leg and it eventually pulled-back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, before the price rebounded again and almost reached the -0.382 Fib extension for a technical Higher High. Observe how similar the 1D RSI sequences are between the two.
As a result, we expect currently a downside as low as 60.50 (Fib 0.5) at least to test the 1D MA200 and then we will buy and target $94.00 (below the -0.382 Fib, projected +56% rise, which is 20% lower than the previous rise (+76.18%), similar to the difference the Feb 03 2023 High High had from its Dec 02 2022 High).
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BUY ShopifyShopify is approaching strong support levels expecting a bounce of 50-100% from those levels. I will personally buy some calls when it hits that particular area.
Position yourself accordingly, If have questions just message me.
SHOPX: $0.019 | below the RADAR with a Potential Value of $15bnbridging traditional brands to the next generation of BRANDING
and building strong relationships with existing customers
just like how Apple did as a cult in the iTUNES ecosysytem
this is like a venue for fortune 500 brands to link up with Tiktok Generation
in growing business
for now HANDLER Eric is just aging or building infra
for big funds to come in re-pack or peddle to the gang of 8 Big Vcs is the space
just like how SNAP was valued at $28ish bn during its debut in the NASDAQ
immediate MARKET is SHOPiFY
shopify $53bn cap
buy and hold and maybe in 36months we can retire with Eric and the fanboys at 1000x reward
Shopify Merchants Drive Record-High $9.3 Billion in Black FridayShopify Inc. (NYSE: SHOP), a provider of essential internet infrastructure for commerce, announced today that Shopify merchants reached a record $9.3 billion in sales* over Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM) weekend - a 24% increase from last year.
From early Friday in New Zealand to late Monday in California, more than 61 million consumers globally purchased from brands powered by Shopify.
Shopping peaked when collective sales reached $4.2 million per minute at 12:01 p.m. EST on Black Friday.
BFCM highlights from Shopify merchants
1. Peak sales per minute: $4.2 million at 12:01 PM EST on Nov. 24.
2. 61 million consumers globally purchased from Shopify-powered brands.
3. Hottest product categories: apparel and accessories, health and beauty, and home and garden.
4. Average cart price: $108.12 ($107.53 on a constant currency basis).
5. Top selling countries: U.S., U.K., Australia, Canada, and Germany.
6. Top selling cities: Los Angeles, New York, and London.
7. Cross-border orders represented 15% of all global orders.
8. 56,000+ tonnes of carbon removal funded by Shopify to counteract shipping emissions.
Technical Analysist
Price Momentum
SHOP is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
Shopify Record Breaking $4.1 billion Black Friday SalesShopify - NYSE:SHOP
Shopify is having a great year and it appears it just got better, they announced a record-breaking Black Friday, with global sales from its merchants totaling $4.1 billion. Surpassing the previous year's figures, sales saw a substantial 22% increase, peaking at an impressive $4.2 million per minute on November 24, 2023.
After 5 positive quarterly earnings in a row and with the annual earnings release in Feb 2024 around the corner, now could be a time to capitalize on this upcoming likely positive Annual Earnings Report release in Feb 2024 (released between 14th – 21st Feb).
The Chart
There is a clear long term diagonal support level under price and potential break out above key resistance level of $70.00.
We are above the 200 day smooth moving average and it is sloping upwards.
Entry into the trade should to your desired risk tolerance. Some examples of how you could enter
- Entry here allowing for potential loss of 15% (the stop)
- Entry at the $70.00 resistance line level (keeping stop at $62.00)
- Entry off a the 200 day SMA when ever that occurs and place a stop under the diagonal
resistance line (which will like be a similar 15% potential loss).
The Risk: Reward is decent at 6, however I would take a significant portion off the table at $91.00 (the 0.618 fib level) or I would at lease raise my stop at this juncture, as it will likely be some form of resistance simply because of the price support/resistance you will see to the left historically and also because it lines up nicely with the 0.618 fib extension.
You could also exit the trade entirely at $91.00 and plan a re-entry when we see what happens next. Its only a 22% play here versus a 15% loss, not great. So you need to weigh up what your comfortable with.
There is also an argument to hold the position until the annual earnings release in Feb 2024, in this case the position size is key and should be smaller, with capital set aside to average in if we re-visit the 200 or diagonal resistance.
There is a trade here and a structure to play off, its up to you how you do it. Carefully select your position size if your making a longer term play, regardless position size should be small with a potential 15% loss.
Another alternative is to cut the stop loss to 5%, however I would only do this after a significant pull back of some sort.
An interesting year for Shopify, it appears the US consumer is stronger than market commentators might think.
As always stay nimble
PUKA
Shopify Stock Is Soaring Again What Could Be The FactorThe bull market is back, and so is pandemic favorite Shopify (NYSE: SHOP). After posting robust growth and showing strong operating leverage in the third quarter, the e-commerce platform gained more than 30% in the last five trading days and is closing in on a market cap of $80 billion. Shopify is still down by 63% from the all-time high it set in 2021, which could indicate there is still more room to run here.
Shopify's Q3 earnings were strong across the board. As the software backbone for many online sellers, Shopify grows along with the overall e-commerce sector. It makes money through its core software subscriptions, by processing payments, and by selling add-on services to its merchant customers.
In the quarter, Shopify's revenue grew 25% year over year to $1.7 billion. Factor out last year's revenue from its logistics and delivery services business -- which the company divested itself of earlier this year -- and the growth rate was an even more impressive 30%.
Shopify sold the delivery services business to Flexport in a pivot to refocus solely on the digital world, providing software services to online merchants. This is already showing up in the company's profit margins. In the quarter, Shopify's gross margin was 52.6% compared to 48.5% in 2022.
Gains
Shopify generated $122 million in operating income in Q3, up from an operating loss of $346 million in the prior-year period.
Technical Analysist
Price Momentum
SHOP is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
Shopify: Boom 💥"Boom!" There is no better way to describe the bullish dynamics of SHOP stock. The stock has now confirmed the low of the turquoise wave X with a 33% attack to the upside. The upward wave to the north must now continue to the upside to overcome resistance at $67.60. The high of the turquoise wave Y and thus of the superior wave (B) in green is not expected until around $90.
Shopify - Keylevels - WeeklyThese are my keylevels for Shopify on Weekly.
Nothing to say about it, just a sequence of 2 Lower Highs.
Shopify Stock (NYSE: SHOP) Why The Surge TodayThird-quarter revenue of $1.7 billion was marginally higher than analysts' estimates and represented an increase of 25% over the year-ago quarter. The top-line beat affirms the momentum Shopify has been building in recent quarters, which has 70% year to date.
More businesses are signing up for subscriptions and driving steady growth in the company's merchant solutions business. But the stock is also responding to Shopify's improving profitability on the bottom line.
Operating income came in at 7% of revenue, or $122 million, reversing last year's operating loss of $346 million. The company's decision to sell its logistics operation to free up resources and lower expenses is clearly paying off, and shareholders are being rewarded.
Management expects the momentum to continue with the holiday shopping season coming up. For the fourth quarter, revenue is expected to be in the low-to-mid-twenties year over year excluding the impact of sales in the logistics business from the fourth quarter of 2022.
Moreover, free cash flow margin relative to revenue was a healthy 16% in the third quarter, and management expects it to remain in the high-teens range in Q4.
Here's an opportunity to watch
For a stock trading at a high price-to-sales ratio of 12, Shopify hit all the right notes in its latest update. The company should continue to see healthy margins and growing free cash flow over the long term, which could push the stock to new highs.
As we enter 2024, investors will want to watch Shopify's payments business following its Buy With Prime integration with Amazon. This should benefit Shopify merchants and lead to higher checkout conversion, which could boost the company's revenue.
shop after long time going down we hope to see shop going around 55% with option to lose 4.5% and ratio of 4.4
RSI with low ratio with face up
with 4 time wining the earning we hope that shop going to sky rocketin the earning will make the call to get in to the trade
let see what shop will say
Why I'm Going Long on ShopifyOn the weekly timeframe for NYSE:SHOP , I noticed four things immediately:
- A candle close above the bullish flag forming, indicator bullish momentum.
- NYSE:SHOP recently created swing highs at $53.70 and then broke it and bounced perfectly off of it showing that $53.70 is a KEY level.
- When price bounced off of $53.70, it was also at the 5 SMA, adding more confluence to my trade
- Lastly, I saw a divergence on the volume indicator, which is always a good sign of confluence for my trades.
Given these four reasons, I am bullish on NYSE:SHOP as of now.
Stop Loss / Take Profits
Stop loss:
The stop loss of this trade is set at $55.42, which is the most recent low.
Take Profits:
All of these take profits are set at levels that I felt were phycological levels.
My plan would be to scale out half of my position at TP1, 1/2 of the remaining position at TP2, and fully out at TP3
If TP3 is hit, this will be a 1:1.44 R:R trade.
Let me know what you think of this trade!
SHOP | Informative | Day trade planNYSE:SHOP
Price Action & Candlestick Analysis:
The price seems to be in a short-term downtrend, as it's mostly moving below the moving averages.
The long blue bar shows a strong bullish movement in one of the 15-minute intervals, but it seems the momentum could not be maintained, as the price started declining shortly after.
Moving Averages:
There are two moving averages, one short-term (potentially 50-period) and one long-term (potentially 200-period). The stock price is currently below both, which is generally a bearish signal.
The moving averages appear to be converging slightly towards the end, potentially indicating a change in trend in the future if they crossover.
Volume:
There's a significant spike in volume during the bullish move. This suggests that there was strong buying interest during that time.
Following the bullish spike, the volume seems to taper off, which can be an indication of a decrease in trading interest or momentum.
Support and Resistance Levels:
The "Bullish Line" is set at 53.48, which might act as a resistance level in the short term. If the price breaks above this with significant volume, it could lead to further bullish movement.
The "Bearish Line" is marked at 52.49. This might serve as a short-term support level. A breach below this line could indicate further downward movement.
Target prices are set at various levels, with the nearest being Target Price 1 at 52.06, then 51.37, and the lowest being 50.69. These could serve as potential support levels or price targets for a bearish move.
On the upside, if there's a change in trend, the target prices are 54.57 and 55.28.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI seems to be hovering around the mid-level, currently at 42.70, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
The movement of the RSI is generally flat, suggesting no strong momentum in either direction at the moment.
Overall Sentiment:
The overall sentiment from this chart seems to be slightly bearish, considering the price is below both moving averages and is closer to the bearish line.
However, the RSI is near the middle, and the moving averages are converging, so there could be potential for a change in trend. It would be crucial to watch for breakouts above resistance or breakdowns below support, coupled with volume, for a clearer direction.
Bullish on Shop.
Hello all, As you can see here on the 15-minute chart we are in a channel. I drew these lines and supply zones on the hourly chart. I am looking for a bullish breakout and retest of resistance with a high volume bounce off with good volume on the Hiekin Ashi candlestick chart. I am looking long because the market seems to go where the liquidity is. Thank you for reading my analysis.
$SHOP GOIN' UP
Shopify is going up, look at this beautiful move off of support with great volume. TP1 is 25 EMA, and TP 2 is POC of volume profile. This chart is beautiful.
Shopify Macro Pattern Bullish Until Proven OtherwiseHi Guys! This is a Macro Technical Analysis on Shopify (SHOP) on the 1 Week Timeframe.
Its to add to my previous analysis while keeping it brief and concise.
Recently we Broke through and confirmed BELOW both the Uptrend Channel and the 21 EMA.
Normally this spells TROUBLE, especially if we confirm BELOW 21 EMA, as this moving average normally holds SUPPORT through BULLTRENDS.
Even more so that the MACD has crossed BEARISH as well.
However digging deeper, its seen that the channel and 21 EMA break was followed by DECLINING VOLUME.
Normally, for Trend Reversals and for the direction of a trend to actually go that way you need a spike in VOLUME.
(Watch VOLUME in the coming weeks. Can give us hints to what will come next.)
Comparing our current move to previous moves, look to "Similar Pattern". It may be probable that we just move side ways before continuing our UPTREND.
Notice how to the T, our current move follows the previous example. The 21 EMA is also flattening out, indicating this sideways movement.
Another likely scenario, if volume picks up can be a test of the 50 SMA (Green moving average).
BUT provided this Weeks candle closes ABOVE we are testing support. So if we can stay ABOVE this, 50 SMA is less Probable. So pay attention to this weeks candle close and for CONFIRMATION.
Also NOTE we have had a BULLISH CROSS of the 21 EMA above the 50 SMA.
Along with how previous history BUllish move played out.
This makes me think we are in the Early phases of a BULL run in Shopify.
This is NOT a DEFINITE, Sure thing but we may be mirroring the "Similar Pattern".
But always remember that things that happened before does not have to happen again.
I think other than Volume, another MAJOR thing to watch is the MACD.
Particularly, the main focus should be staying ABOVE the 0 level.
Going BELOW 0 level, may indicate further price DECLINES.
So watch how the Histogram bars shape up, we want smaller RED bars that change to a lighter RED color. Eventually would like to see GREEN bars in the coming weeks. That would give confidence that BULLISH momentum is coming back to Shopify.
Take a look at how the MACD shaped up during the "Similar Pattern". If we stay ABOVE 0 level, all is good.
Keep that in the back of the mind as you follow the MACD.
RSI also gives some clues. The area between the RED & BLACK Horizontal lines, coincides with being BELOW 21 EMA.
If we are below the RED line, normally its a good area to add to your position during a BULL run.
The warning sign is if the RSI drops towards and BELOW the BLACK line, that would lead to further PRICE Declines.
Using both the MACD and RSI in combination will help remove false signals. If you see that the histograms are turning light red, to light green and the RSI curved back up towards and ideally above RED line. This would likely push Price back ABOVE 21 EMA, and continue our BULL Run.
I think this week, its important to stay ABOVE the SUPPORT line. Staying above may bring in more confidence.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on SHOP in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
Bull momentum of Shopify has been completely releasedBull momentum of Shopify has been completely released
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Shopify stocks over the past two years. The top to bottom golden section at the end of 2021 is superimposed in the figure. As shown in the figure, since the completion of the form at the end of October 2022, it has risen by 4 small bands, and theoretically, the bull momentum has been completely released! This week, Shopify's stock has made a significant pullback, returning to below the 2.382 position in the golden section of the chart! In the future, it is likely that there will be a longer period of bull rest!
SHOP LONG 3rd Aug,2023I am long in SHOP and targets will be huge. Wait for my analyis and if you do understand the trade then enter it. SPY SHOULD RETRACE MORE SOplan your trade accordingly
SHOP Shopify Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold SHOP here:
or considered this buy area:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CAT Caterpillar prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 67usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-8-11,
for a premium of approximately $3.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
