TARGET REACHED: SHoprite at R257.66 thanks to Head and SHoulderTarget reached R257.66 from the Inverse Head and Shoulders we pin pointed in July.
The price broke above the neckline and out of the medium downtrend.
We followed the textbook way, and the price shot to the target at R257.66.
It can continue higher. Or it can consolidate.
But either way, we need to wait for the next setup.
Shoprite
UPDATE: Shoprite showing strong upside still to come target R257Since the last update, Shoprite shot above the neckline of the Inverse Head and Shoulders.
Since then, it's been rocketing to our first target. As long as the JSE ALSI continues its medium term upside and the retailers continue to move up - there is no stopping this one.
Other indicators confirm.
7>21
Price >200
RSI>50
Target remains at R257.00
ABOUT THE COMPANY
Origins:
Shoprite originated in 1979 in South Africa, starting as a chain of eight supermarkets in Cape Town.
Growth:
Shoprite is now the largest supermarket retailer on the African continent.
They operate in 15 countries across Africa and the Indian Ocean Islands.
Headquarters:
The company's headquarters are in Brackenfell, Cape Town, South Africa.
Brands:
Shoprite Holdings operates several well-known retail brands, including
Shoprite,
Checkers,
Checkers Hyper,
Usave,
OK Furniture,
House & Home, and more.
Services:
Apart from retail services, Shoprite also provides financial services, such as money transfer, ticket booking, and payment of utility bills.
Employment:
Shoprite is a significant employer in Africa, providing jobs to tens of thousands of people.
Shoprite still showing downside despite the bounceHead and Shoulders formed on SHP.
It broke below the neckline and now its been coming down on the downtrend.
We can expect the bounce up, before the downside.
200>21>7 - Bearish
RSI<50
Target R177.11
CONCERNS: The JSE ALSI is setting itself for upside due to the Symmetrical Triangle.
This might cause a disturbance in shorts with retailers but right now the bias remains short.
UPDATE Shoprite short playing along nicely thanks to the rand Since the last trade update, SHP has been on a strong trajectory down.
It formed a large Head and Shoulders on the daily chart which then the price broke below the neckline.
We had other indicators confirming downside including:
200>21>7 - Bearish
RSI<50
The target remains at R177.11
With fundamentals, I don't have much to say except the negative effect that the weakening rand could be putting pressure on Shoprite.
There are a couple of reasons for the price to drop when the ZAR gets weaker including:
Higher Import Costs
A weakening rand means it's worth less compared to other currencies.
If Shoprite imports goods from other countries, it would have to spend more rands to buy the same amount of goods.
This increase in costs could decrease profits, which in turn could cause the share price to drop if investors expect lower future profits.
Inflation Pressure:
A falling rand can lead to inflation as the cost of imported goods rise. Even the Finance Ghost just spent R70 on a Sausage Roll in Cape Town! That's crazy!
High inflation can erode consumers' purchasing power, potentially leading to a decrease in consumer spending.
Shoprite, as a major retailer, could be adversely affected by this trend, leading to a drop in its revenues and, consequently, its share price.
Economic Uncertainty:
Currency depreciation often reflects broader economic instability or uncertainty.
This can lead to decreased investor confidence not only in the rand but also in South African companies, including Shoprite.
This lower confidence can result in selling pressure on Shoprite shares, leading to a fall in its share price.
UPDATE - Shoprite still showing downside despite positive moodHead and Shoulders formed on SHP and the price broke below the neckline.
We were hesitant with this analysis as world markets showed bullishness to come.
But charts are charts and they never lie.
Therefore we should follow the trend than try go against it.
200>21>7 - Bearish
RSI<50
Target R177.11
Shoprite showing strong downside to come to R177.11Head and Shoulders has formed on Shoprite and the price has broken below the neckline.
200>21>7 - Bearish
RSI<50
Target R177.11
CONCERNS:
I don't like shorting strong companies generally especially when the JSE ALSI 40 is on a strong uptrend.
Revenue growth is up 17.20%
Net income Growth is up 14.70%
Average annual Revenue growth (15yr) up 11.08%
Net Margin is 3%
but ROE is -24.97%.
So it's unusual to see downside for this retail giant. But anyways, charts are charts and we have a plan in place.
Shoprite showing something unusual - Target R189.75W Formation has formed on Shoprite.
The strangest thing is that the 200MA is actually the Neckline of the pattern.
so if the price breaks below the 200MA, all Heck is going to break loose.
There are other bearish signs like
21>7>200 RSI<50
Bearish bias
My first target is R189.75.
CONCERNS:
We haven't had a break of structure yet. This means, the position will remain neutral until it does.
ShopriteJSE:SHP tested R247 this morning, the stock previously failed to break above this level creating what looked like a double top. Luckily, the recent low was a higher lower, an uptrend movement is still possible. JSE:SHP will be attractive if it breaks above R248, a buy stop order can be useful in getting a decent price near a pivot point.
Shoprite, double top?Initially I was hoping that JSE:SHP was gonna break above the previous high of R246, it couldn't. It's been pulling back to the 30 wMA, and it's currently trading below it, not a good thing. Also, it seems like it has formed a double top, I may be seeing things, but a double top and price below the 30wMA is not a recipe for success (except shorting success).
Shoprie is losing groundJSE:SHP share price is under pressure, and it has broken below a support level. JSE:SHP has been trading below key MAs for a while now, it's no surprise that the down ward move is gaining traction. It's not wise to keep on buying the stock at the moment, let it fall without you, unless you'e short. JSE:PPH is another weak retail stock.
Bearish Engulfing at ResistanceA Bearish engulfing candle formed on JSE:SHP on 17 Feb. This was followed by a cross of the EMA's and the MACD. All of these indicate a change of momentum and we could be seeing a move to the downside. There is a gap that formed in September last year that we ight be looking to fill, failing that, it might find some support at the top of the gap.
SHP - Heading for gap closeApart from the double top that has formed, a massive bearish engulfing candle appeared yesterday with very strong downward momentum. If it continues down lower than the low of yesterday's engulfing, I will consider a short position with a target at the close of the gap from the 8th of September.
SHP breaking trendJSE:SHP has been in a downward trend since mid September. It broke through the resistance level on the 9th of October and it went back down to test the level as support. If it breaks the high of the 13th of October, I will consider a long position up to the previous high of the top of the trend.
$JSESHP Cup & Handle breakout constructive Shoprite looks constructive for the bulls with the formation of the cup & handle formation. The break above the patterns resistance level @ R130 is an important technical development for the stock which should hopefully result in both technical targets being reached in the days/weeks ahead. First target at R140 is measured by taking the distance of the handle and projecting it upwards from the breakout level at R130. The second and full target level is measured by taking the distance of the bottom and top of the cup and handle formation from R110 and R130, and measuring it from the break, to give a full target of R150. The level of R150 was previously support before the stock broke down and will now likely act as resistance on the way up. Also take note of the 200 day moving average (green line) which sits at R158.40 currently and moving down daily. This could likely move lower to R150 by the time the price has caught up and would be another point of resistance which the stock will encounter should we see a swift movement higher as expected.
Shoprite Holdings LTD - Discount, Discount"Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is the ratio of the value traded to total volume traded over a particular time horizon. It is a measure of the average price at which a stock is traded over the trading horizon." Wikipedia. (Blue Lines).
I use a rule of thumb, never buy/long above vwap and never sell/short bellow vwap. Technically we are below the higher timeframe vwap's but we want the best price we can get on lower timeframes IF a reversal happens here, so we risk a trade setup finding undervalued prices at certain levels.
This could potentially lead into a nice long term trade. Just use risk management and watch for that area in yellow circle. After that, you don't want to be in the trade anymore.
Let's see!