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Weekly Prediction 9-13 May SPX/ES Iron CondorSPX 9 - 13 May The weekly VIX -> Volatility Index for S&P 500 index VIX = 30.2 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 30.2 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 4.19% My historical product is telling me with 1.5x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 31.69 / sqrt(52) = 4.39% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 89% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 4305 BOT - 3942 Lets look into an iron condor oppotunity for trading: 4300Call Sell - 4325Call Buy 3950Put sell - 3925 Put buy This is giving us at the current moment a 0.29 expectancy So taking into account from 1166 weekly candles, that 89% of the times the market stay within our top/bot channel, Our profit margin would be 89% * 0.29 - 11%*1 = 14.81 ROI after 100 trades
SP:SPX
by exlux
SPY: Room for upside and then back downWell it looks like the result was as expected. A 50 pt basis increase which caused the market to relax and "price in" the rate hike just like last time. Now we go back up. The timing of it is a bit sharper than last month. Previously we got a rate hike and needed to wait and entire month before the CPI told us that rates needed to rise faster than expected. This time we will get CPI on May 11th (It will be around 8%). The fix is in on inflation. You see April of 2021 had very little inflation so the inflation rate of April won't be that different from march since prices have not really changed. In May & June we will start to see those inflation numbers head down (assuming prices don't rise from here) April will have high CPI. I really do think it all coincides nicely with the blue line I have drawn on the channel and that yellow line which shows Horizontal resistance. We also cracked got above 50 on the 4 hour RSI which usually signals some bullish behavior if temporary. This causes me to feel we are going to stay bullish until around 440 and then once the new CPI numbers come in and everyone realizes we have another 50 pt hike coming in June the downward price movement will come again. I personally have a 400-375-350 spread expiring on Jun 17th. I plan to add another short butterfly spread maybe 420-375-330 or something a little more conservative like 430-385-340 once we get near 435-440 (I might honestly add both depending on how the chart looks). TLDR: Some more upside ahead as bulls push this thing, and then back down we go probably aiming towards the 375 support if we crack 400. Just my art project. Good luck out there.
AMEX:SPY
by MikeSpy
BTC fall down, go BOOM!Rising interest rates, war, rising energy costs, etc. I think in the long run BTC is poised for greater heights, however, the short term looks risk off. The dollar, despite, the naysayers is still strong. Almost like they are two sides of the same coin. Long story short, I see BTC struggling in the short term and a 3-9 month market washout. Call me crazy but I'm not buying until near 20K, whenever that occurs. BTC acts more like a highly volatile stock on the NASDAQ than a currency. Compare the two charts side by side. You'll see. BTC to 20K - NASDAQ seeking 10K. Peace. Live long and prosper. P.S. The most recent interview with Michael Saylor takes a deep dive into the way BTC looks to institutions. Look up 120K BTC and Michael Saylor on YouTube.
CME:BTC1!Short
by thebrooksbirdclub
OIL CoverOil looks to be still in the contracting pennant. And likely this will try to move to the upper range of the pennant. The green lines I am leaving in which were drawn in the past upon the initial green line. I leave them so I can see for myself what my "speculative" analysis is. By speculative I mean there is no technical evidence to support this hypothesis and it is purely speculative. Any projection in to the future is technically speculative BUT if the hypothesis is supported by strong TA (technical analysis) I consider this to be a hypothesis supported by evidence as opposed to no evidence hypothesis.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by Sinex
1
DOLLAR MELT UP? As some will know I've been monitoring the DXY very closely for months. It's unbelievable where eh Dollar is now, compared to mid 2021. After all, many a guru out there predicted the dollar would crash. Markets don't obey gurus! In this video I explore the Dollar on different time frames, to get a perspective on key levels and where the Dollar could go next. Nothing here is a prediction. The point is, if in your mind you think 'It can't go higher', well the markets may think differently. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
TVC:DXY
by Captain_Walker
1 trade, 2 probabilities !Hello all, I was expecting the sell off to continue - It did - but very briefly. ________________________ BTC - S&P 500 correlation : Btc was more bullish than SPX on the openning, the index have achieved Lower lows and BTC is on a bullish trend. Finally when the buying kicked off the index spiked and guess what ? BTC too ! Current situation : Currently we can see that BTC has been pumping all day since the european sesion till the end of the American session. It has continued with Asians too, well at least at the moment I'm writing these words. Speculation : I think that we might see a slightly bearish movement in a form of correction since we have broken a significant resistance/support line before continuing up (this direction is represented by the blue line). Despite this bullish movement. I strongly think that the macro-economic factor is going to heavily impact the markets when the federal reserve starts hiking those rates again ! The first hiking might occur on the debut of May so the rally might continue untill then ! Before that, and after reaching the yellow cercle we can see the first important correction where we will be retesting the bottom grey line (the movement represented by the red arrow) or just continuing up. The green arrow to me is very less probable but not impossible ! Decision making architecture : The thing that made me reverse today before taking my trading is the volume ! Not only BTC is pumping, but it is pumping with enough volume to give the trend credebility ! the S&P divergence and the volume made me go long. Oh yeah I forget and one more thing ! I don't short the bottoms ! If you appreciate the efforts, hit that agree button, thank you.
by Pleased_Owl
Netflix, What happened?Overview After poor revenue release and news of losing subscribers in large quantities, Netflix has posted two major losses in recent times. This brings the valuation of Netflix shares down a total of nearly 70% from November highs. The future At this rate, the stock has been poorly rated by many analysts and has strongly bearish momentum. The question now is whether or not Netflix will try to implement a new way of doing business or alter current operating methods to try and bring its value back. In the event that Netflix is able to find a viable solution to return to successful business, we may see golden opportunities to buy back into such a large company with huge potential. However, given the rise in popularity in other video streaming services, it's unlikely that Netflix will be able to continue on its success by solely providing video streaming services without a major change in operation.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by BrewerCapital_
GMT GOING DOWN???Gmt had very big pump and honestly it was overbought. Now it had bos to downside and I think it will reach upper zone (supply zone and then continue to go down) I expect scenario like drawn on chart. This is my plan: I will short when supply zone get reached(if it gets reached soon) and my last tp will be at 2.45 ( I will take profit manually as trade goes) and then when it reaches demand zone I will long with sl below that zone and tp at 3.6 which should bring over 50% without any leverage and very big rr ratio! THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE,JUST MY OPINION!!!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn26826311
10