Waiting On The IBEX 35 (SP35) – Indices – Daily CAPITALCOM:SP35
We are just taking a look at the IBEX 35 and not planning on opening up any positions. This trade is a bit too complicated, and there are no clear signals (because there are too many almost) to indicate which way the price wants to go.
A downward trendline from May 2017 connects a peak in February 2020. Technically from this, we can gather that IBEX is still technically in a downtrend. Even though it has dropped in price and climbed to its current position, it still has not crossed our “main” downward trendline signaling an uptrend.
There are quite a few patterns to consider in this example. We have a wedge squeezing price along with two symmetrical triangles. The grey support line indicates a hard support level which is also supported by a round number (SAR round number). Additionally, the valleys are supported by high volume, and when this is the case, you can be assured price will probably come to a halt there. Along with the downward resistance line running across the double top, that support line forms a tightening flag.
If we have to consider these patterns, we can take into consideration that a partial decline has taken place, and it has retraced to the 50% level of the Fibonacci Retracement level.
We can also see a level of HCR (Horizontal Consolidation Region) at the level of support. There is a channel to the left and above, close to the second part of the double top. Both these areas are areas that could halt price movement, but they are so close to the price already that they might not cause any problems.
In terms of the small symmetrical triangle, we can see that the price has reached its apex and some form of a break is imminent. However, if we look at the larger symmetrical triangle, we can see that the price still has room to move before we can come to any conclusion.
If we had to assume that IBEX #% was currently in an uptrend due to the fact that it has been moving up since October 2020, we could see that two trend lines cut through price. One creates the larger symmetrical triangle while the other is used to evaluate if a downtrend has begun again.
By using the 1-2-3 change method, we can see that IBEX 35 is headed in a downtrend but has not closed at the 3 mark, which is the price of 8060. Although, the double top was confirmed with the HCR.
I would not personally enter any position here until I see where the price is going to go. In order to go short, I would wait for the price to move and close below the two support lines and at the 3 mark.
For a long position, I would actually wait until it crossed the massively long downward trendline that is still a level of resistance. You can see this because it reversed when the price tried to reach it twice (the double top). The price would have to close at around 9368 for me to consider a position trading opportunity for a long position.
Hence for the moment, we’ll just sit and wait to see what IBEX 35 is going to do.
Short-long
INTEL CORP (INTC) RSI+MACD+STOCH FIB RETRACEMENT TA TRADING 💡📉I developed a personal trading strategy on NASDAQ:INTC to setup a trading buy scenario.
What are the different indicators Showing?
MACD:
EMA's crossed, no sign early retracement bounce
!!! market uptrend could have turned into a downtrend, but we need more confirmation
RSI:
Market is globally in an uptrend but RSI looks like its crossing the 50 line towards a downtrend, so there may be no retracement bounce
INTC is accordingly to the RSI not overbought nor underbought, confirmation to come
STOCH:
STOCH looks like it's going towards its underbought level, I would wait till both lines cross the underbought level
What is FIB/Graph saying
Previous retracements reversed at around 50% to 61.8% fib level
I expect this retracement (if last retracement wasn't a trend reversal) to reverse around the same levels.
Intel Corp. as long term: 📈📈
Intel will definitely hit a 100$ in the future, with a lot of new big upcoming projects
For example: a crypto mining dedicated CPU
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you enjoyed this post and agree with me, a like and a sub would be very nice : )
If you have any other ideas or simply disagree, manifest yourself in the comments ⬇️⬇️⬇️
Stay updated for more content
Have a nice Day : ) Bye!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL: Contrarian setup aheadEverybody knows that oil is heading to the moon. In recent days, I've heard numerous estimates like $150. However, I think those estimates may be based on panic.
Contrarians dare to be wrong, in the face of crowd sentiment - obviously.
Everybody can see the same thing on the chart - a well formed rising broadening wedge in a bull market. Expand the chart a bit for a better view.
This presents a good probability of bearishness, though price is moving north. For this sort of picture there is an estimated >70% chance of a reversal. What that means is that there is a 30% chance that price will reach the moon. But what traders want is a solid prediction - which I do not do, because I have no ownership of the future.
Price doesn't have to get over 90. There is no rule that says wedges have to be 100% complete. But the pattern is sufficiently well formed once there are 3 important points on the upper and lower edges of the wedge.
So - in the above I am not saying that 'oil can't go to the moon'. I'm saying there is a lesser probability of that. The red faded line is only to give a picture of what could happen. A line going to the moon would not fit on the chart. 😲😁
I'll be keeping my powder dry, whilst some punch the air. Not a problem.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
BTC Rising Wedge - Short position at 38kBTC has recovered well from its recent dump into the mid 30's area. It's creating a rising wedge in a falling market which is a low risk high probability short entry target to watch. I've posted previously that I expected BTC to bounce around for a few weeks now which means you must be careful and patient about you entries.
Started my short position in the 38k area, break out to the high side of the wedge and I will stop out in 39k range. Target for short profit is 35.2k. I will hold some small short position long term for if we break down to 30k.
AUS200 (1H): Potential move northThis is a theory of curves setup (TOCS) ; looking at the price action of the AUS200.
In TOCS, thee is usually a 55% chance of movement in the leading half of the curve (based on personal experience). Better than 50% is good in finding entry points for trend following positions. Zoom into the chart if text overlaps candles.
The AUS200 has been curving up nicely. Of course charts don't obey these curves - that's why there is a remaining 45% chance of the setup failing.
There is no target for an exit point in trend following. So, entry is the big issue. Exit points are determined by the market when price moves threw a trailing stop on a lower time frame. There is no prescription as to how to work that out because it depends on the price action in a lower timeframe. It is no possible to know that until if happens.
What's in favour of a north side attempt? Always look higher e.g. the daily time frame where the RSI is in a deep trough and which will appear attractive to 'punters'.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
DXY 28/01/2022Looking for pullbacks before continuation of bullish momentum.
After this weeks fundamentals (FOMC) - DXY is over extended, so I would like some pullback. If we could get a pullback, it means that we could have some pullbacks on: GBPUSD, AUDUSD & EURUSD, before a continuation to the downside.
Hitting ~28k$ very soonBTC does look like its forming a bearflag. Could potentially hit the big resistance at ~40k$ before breaking out of this channel to the downside.
Pricetarget of this bearflag is at ~28,1k$ which would automatically mean we hit also the golden ratio.
This would be the best target to reach to be able to reverse the market and continue with the bull market.
To the guys who are familiar with elliott waves:
In my opinion wave C should be finished quite clearly once we hit the 40k$ and come down to 28k$ then.
Please just correct me if I am wrong.
DAX: DEATH CROSS - BEWAREThis is a death cross on the 4H time frame. It may not show on many higher time frames.
Some traders wait to see the death cross on the 1D time frame. By the time that develops, the market is ready to rebound.
I always stay 'under the hood' of the daily time frame, cuz that's where the action begins.
The 4H is my fav time frame to get an idea of what's happening, based only on my experience.
The DAX and other indices have basically followed Wall Street and the NASDAQ - they're all interconnected by undersea cables. Some $USD 10 trillion in financial transactions pass in those per day.
Anyways the markets have been so heavily pumped that I don't think the FED can save them now. This time around in contrast to 2020, it is so overheated it's now become silly.
Air money cannot support markets forever. Right now people are losing billions (collectively) as the markets head south.
Will they throw in the towel? Not soon enough.
If you're a trend follower the 2H or 4H ATR lines are nice ones to follow.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
SPX in the next days.Hello everyone. Today we're gonna see the different possibilities for SPX in the next days.
We have a good opportunities to trade in short and long but don't forget manage your risk.
Possibility 1: Just trade in the laterals for short or long trades.
Possibility 2: We should wait the price break the resistence and wait for pullback, then we can looking for short trade. If your trade down to the 38% of Fibonacci, we should wait to decide if we have opportunities to have a long or short trade.
Possibility 3: If we entered in the possibility 2, we can trailing the trade and get more ratio of benefits.
XAUUSD BearishGold is now showing weakness and is breaking structure on lower timeframes I will be looking for shorts and buys when we enter one of those demand zones. when we hit a demand zone I will patiently wait for a clear break of structure
and clear demand.
keep in mind we are still bullish on higher timeframes!
this is no financial advice!!
EURAUD Bounce from Resistance and More UpsideWelcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair!
** From the daily perspective, the market has completed an "M" pattern and broken above the neckline of the pattern. We can expect a retest of the previous support before a potential rejection to the upside.
Do you agree? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!
Please support this idea with a LIKE if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
Thanks for your continued support!
Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
GBP USD Bearish Moves!!GBP USD turned bearish and I will be looking for shorts. Maybe some long counter trades but that really depends on the market structure. As you can see is we have a supply above us and we maybe have a break of structure there to short from. We are now landed on a demand zone and we maybe will respect it to retrace into our first supply, keep an eye out on these zones on the lower timeframe.
this is no financial advice and don't ask me when to buy or when to short I'm only here to show how I look at the market!
EUR USD incoming Demandeur usd is still bullish and we are about to enter the demand zone soon but first I will look for shorts to the demand zone and from there I will be happy to look for buys
this is no financial advice.
and don't ask me when to buy this is not a signal page! it's for the people that wanna know where to look at!!
Why Your Shorts Are Not Winning - Part 2The trend continues to be your friend until the very end.
This is 2 day chart that I posted in the beginning of the year that continues to be in play since the COVID meltdown in early 2020.
Price has been in a strong uptrend with very few pullbacks. Even the pullbacks result in dramatic reversals and pumps to the upside.
Here is where it gets interesting. We are approaching the top of the channel and the last time we touched the top of the channel, we had a strong pullback.
Is the market melting up, only to reach the top of the channel and turn back? Is price going to breakout of this huge channel? I think we're going to find the answers to these questions very soon.
Good luck. Never play the breakouts, wait for the retests. When it feels really right, it's probably wrong, and when it feels very wrong it's probably right.
GETTING READY: Looking back to 2020In this video I look back to early 2020, to see how the 40% collapse in the DJI happened.
Am I preparing for a collapse or correction? Yes I am. Preparing does not mean I am predicting.
What is see looking back is, that a 2 hour ATR trend south had developed. It is the best fit. I had tried 1H trend but that did not fit well enough, where price would stay below he ATR line.
This index has been pumped up on implicit guarantees coming from the FED. We saw a similar scenario in the mortgage markets around 2008.
Readiness is everything. When you're in a trend down, you won't really know for sure because you can't see the whole trend, like we see now looking back to 2020.
This time around, I'm getting ready. The last major correction occurred in Feb 2020. So I am on high alert all now. I'm watching every 2hour switch.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.