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What's happening with Gold?Loads of people were demoralised on Friday 6th August 2021, when Gold took an amazing dip south. That was part of a 30 min trend switch. But - as I always say look higher. Now strangely, I am actually bearish on Gold in the long run. However, the technical picture is showing something different on the 1D time frame. And there are conflicting trends on lower time frames e.g. The 4H is saying south is the probability. The point is that you gotta pick a trend on a time frame and stick with it, win or lose - just make sure your losses are affordable. So - the 1D time frame is showing a lovely theory of curves (TOC). This usually creates a probability on that time frame only for further movement in the leading edge of the curve (which is for the north). How far? How would I know? I don't own the future. If price falls out of the TOC and continues south on the 2h and 4h, then Gold could be in real trouble. This is also possible because watch the ATR trend switch on the Daily which is sharp and bearish. The 2h and 4h time frames live within it. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Captain_Walker
US DOLLAR - NOBODY OWNS THE FUTURE!I've been showing some interesting dollar surprises on different time frames. The DXY is a wild one! What everybody wants is a prediction. You don't get that with me. I show positions of probability. What that means is that if there is a 51% chance for one direction, then there is a 49% chance for the opposite direction. I'm not aiming to be right. I'm aiming to limit how wrong I am. It's that simple. Did you get that? I can be wrong. Wrong - means that I lose money. Nobody likes to talk about losses in trading. I break that rule. I'm telling you right now, there are losses here. If you decide to go long on this position (which is only a snapshot), ensure that it's money you can afford to lose. (Note carefully my brutal disclaimer). I don't tell people about targets and stoplosses - because I don't provide advice. I express my opinion on probability complete with potential losses. You can certainly short this position if in your assessment you come to believe the dollar is going further south. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
TVC:DXY
by Captain_Walker
EURAUD (1D) - watch zone or kill zone.It looks like some sort of head and shoulders. The momentum of price coming off the head was indicative of some follow through below the base and that has happened. Price has done the expected: ducking under the base and then popping back up for a retest. I just draw it like I find it, connecting what I see as the main points. I can never know if the market will approve or disapprove what I see, until much later on. The situation is getting ripe for a controlled loss in a short position. It could be right now or much later on. But H and S theory says we should wait for the retest to be complete. The trouble is you don't really know when the retest has been completed. Sound traders do more watching and planning than trading. I don't know if my watch zone is accurate. How would I know? I don't normally play 1D time frames, so in this scenario - which is obviously for a short setup - I'd be looking for a consistent ATR trend on 30 min to 1 hour time frame, to develop south. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
by Captain_Walker
ALPHA, long or short ?I try to react not to predict, the only prediction for me is how am I going to reacting to some things. That's the situation right here. ALPHA had a nice run-up, about 100% for the last two weeks without any big correction, so maybe it's time. Also the market is very very bullish so we can also go more... Here are the levels that I am going to watch. The last published idea for ALPHA bring us about 47% profit, so let's hope the next trade could be also profitable...
by PhilosophersStone
Possible head & shoulders (retest breakout trend-line) BTC Hello traders, Firstly, we had a rising wedge pattern which has slowly started playing out, this can take 24 hours to eventually fall. Secondly, I'm seeing a possible head & shoulders pattern slowly coming together. Confirmation if we get the right shoulder somewhere in the grey circle. Invalidation if $44,600 gets flipped into support. If we lose the trend-line and this turns into a fake out my first support / target will be $39,999. There's not a single trader out there who is right 100% of the time. Crypto is manipulated by tether and you can't control price action when they turn the money printer on and pump $1,000,000,000 into the market because nobody can see this coming. The only thing you can do is work with the market and flow with the current market conditions. My trades have a 90%+ hit rate, and on those losses I've learned to manage risk and average in and almost always get out breakeven or in profits. Dear counter traders, feel free to 100x long here with your entire account margin ;) Shoutout to my supporters who know my track record and see my trades usually play out. After all, if my trades we're always wrong I don't think I'd have 1200+ followers. Appreciate all of my loyal followers and supporters, I don't have to post my thoughts on the markets but still choose to despise certain individuals constantly trying to troll me and bring me down. Please do me a favor and like/comment on this post to show support, all trolls will be blocked, reported, and ignored going forward. 👍
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by YurloTrades
10
Rising wedge pattern confirmed (bearish resolution) BTC Good morning traders, A rising wedge has formed and confirmed a resolution to the downside. These patterns have an 88% chance of breaking down in terms of probabilities, which is the opposite of a falling wedge (which is bullish) Wedge's have always been my favourite pattern to trade because the hit rate is so high. Lots of trapped longs at the top now, lets see how the next 8 hours develop going into the daily close and most importantly the rest of this weekend. $41,555 has to hold (which is the support that was broken from the downtrend from ATH's) so it that gets lost this will be a confirmed fake out for at least the short term. I'll also be watching to see the reaction at $39,999. I still think it's possible we see $39,111 to print a higher low from the $37,333 support, but time will tell this story. There's a ton of liquidity under the trend line because of fomo longers using high leverage once it broke. Stay safe, and as always do your own research. None of my posts are financial advise, just my own thoughts. Please do me a big favor and like/comment to show your support, it would mean a lot to me. 👍
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by YurloTrades
28
4 hour close above $38,450 will confirm bullish momentum (BTC)Hi traders, An inside look on my previous technical analysis here. You can see with the grey circle price action is wanting to explode. A 4 hour close above the tiny downtrend that was holding us down this entire week will confirm my bias and my previous posts suggesting a short squeeze is coming. It's finally all coming together, patience pays off. Plan your trade and trade your plan. Shoutout to all of you for the kind words on yesterday's technical analysis, appreciate you all.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by YurloTrades
2
Rejected the downtrend from ATH's (lower highs) + bearish engulfHello traders, Just here with a quick update after we've seen price action develop further. Monthly open was bearish, daily rejected very close to the downtrend trend-line. I've been planning this trade for almost 2 weeks and have no intentions of closing. The uptrend from $29,700 has now been broken, so expect high volatility this week and avoid leverage. Daily momentum oscillator (stoch rsi with layover) is just leaving the overbought zone after going sideways in the region for a week straight. Price was pushed up to reach the downtrend from ATH's in my perspective. 10x longs get liquidated around $36,000 - $37,000. Stay safe my friends 👍
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by YurloTrades
4
3rd validation point on downtrend from ATH's (lower highs) BTCHello traders, At $29,700 I mentioned a possible triple bottom, why? We only had 2 validation points on the downtrend from ATH's (which is a weak trend) but if we reject in the next 24 hours and get a 3rd it will strengthen the bearish trend with clear lower highs and eventually retest $30,000 leaving 90% of traders confused and lost. This will be my last technical analysis until the sell off starts. Also said that $42,000 - $45,000 was resistance depending when we pumped, but it appears to me we have a little bit of room left to pump but $43,000 won't hold in my perspective if we even get there. It's also going into a weekend at resistance. Stay safe. 👍
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by YurloTrades
18