Short-long
AUDJPYI have identified a very strong supply zone in H1, as the market retested the area 3 times before breaking through it. After the breakout of the supply zone, the price created a BOS, allowing me to identify an additional POI within the previous supply zone. Now the objective is to wait for the price to drop to the 90 area, and then look for a long entry. The first target is the 90.400 area, and the second target is 91.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
Happy trading and have a great day.
What Happens When the BoJ Kills its Yield Curve Control?Yield Curve Control (YCC) has kept interest rates on ten-year Japanese government bonds within a narrow range close to zero percent since 2016. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) employs YCC to target short-term interest rates at -0.1% and to maintain the 10-year government bond yield within 0.5% above or below zero.
In 2016, Japan was grappling with over a decade of sluggish growth and the issue of deflation, where prices of goods decline. To avoid purchasing huge amounts of the bond market, Yield Curve Control (YCC) was introduced to maintain interest rates at their existing levels.
But now, Japanese annual inflation has reached 3.3% as of February, which suggests that Yield Curve Control (YCC) may no longer be needed. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has faced criticism for distorting markets with the YCC while inflation has exceeded its 2% target. As a result, the BoJ is considering phasing out YCC, which could have significant consequences for US and Japanese bonds and the USD/JPY exchange rate.
So, what will happen when the Boj decides to Kill its YCC?
Japanese investors have been disappointed for the past seven years in the returns on domestic bonds since interest rates have been fixed close to zero. This has prompted many to consider investing in US bonds which have become highly appealing, resulting in trillions of Yen being invested in them. A relaxation of the YCC by the Bank of Japan on the 10-year rate could potentially make Japanese government bonds more appealing to domestic investors. This could result in a significant amount of money repatriating to Japan and have a major impact on global markets.
There are two potential outcomes if Japanese investors repatriate their funds and invest more in Japanese bonds. Firstly, the interest rates for US bonds may increase, leading to tighter financial conditions and a slowdown in US economic activity. Secondly, there may be a weakening of the US dollar, especially the USD/JPY, as investors sell their USD to buy JPY for repatriation.
The USD/JPY is currently in the range bound between around 138.00 and 129.500. But a downside potential to a level like 116.00, which has not seen since early 2022 if a knee-jerk reaction eventuates. Ultimately, how drastic these outcomes turn out will depend on the selling pressure and timing of Japanese investors in reaction to a relaxation of the YCC.
But how likely is it that the BoJ will loosen its control of the yield curve?
Japan's new central bank Governor, Kazuo Ueda, has suggested that the policies of his dovish predecessor, Haruhiko Kuroda, will eventually be phased out. However, the BOJ is likely to avoid changing its policies until it is certain that inflation will reach and maintain its 2% target. Next week, On April 27-28, Ueda will preside over his first BOJ policy meeting, during which the board will release new quarterly growth and inflation forecasts that will be scrutinized for indications of how soon the central bank anticipates inflation will reach its target sustainably. Speaking last week, on April 10th, Ueda emphasized the need for the BOJ to make proactive decisions regarding the timing of policy normalization. He warned that delaying the adjustment could lead to disruptive consequences.
USDJPY short term ideaHere you see a short term idea on USDJPY based on our most recent shift in the market, now this idea is not our overall bias for this pair but an idea that could offer a short term trade.
of course if we break pas this area of supply shown we are watching the range to play us higher into the supply from our 8 hour swing, if we do play lower from the area shown then il be looking to take a low entry trade into some of our unmitigated price action below.
not holding my breath for this one but thought it was worth a share for any eagle eyed traders at market open.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
EURUSD, GBPUSD, XAUUSD Review Hey there, are you curious to see what this week holds for EU, GU, XU? The be sure to watch this weeks midweek review and get clarity regarding these pairs. In this week review you can expect:
- Quarterly analysis on all the pairs which means you will get a holistic and complete view of where price is going, allowing you to position yourself accordingly.
- 2-3 trading tips around the subject of multiple timeframe analysis and how to use it when analysing, leaving you to identify levels of entry that will ensure you able to get in at the best possible price
- Basic explanation on how to view, use and apply sentiment and momentum to your analysis ultimately ensuring you trading inline with the market instead of against it.
Tipple Top or Dead Cat BounceWe're taking a look at Apple here. This ticker has been known as a quality stock that investors flock when other tech stocks take a hit.
MACD is playing right there in the middle and this could go either way. Money Flow Index is showing that there could be more up to go.
Markets have been rocked by the recent banking crisis that is still not over. We're now learning of First Republic continually collapsing, even with backstops and liquidity pledges from big banks. Perhaps this crisis isn't over yet, and with bets of a 25 basis point hike Wednesday, this could snowball into a bigger crisis, but it's one to watch. Central banks are doing all they can to keep this bubble alive, but with declining economies, it's now a matter of time.
Manufacturing, retail, housing, autos, are all down, and continuing downward. Joblessness claims continue upward. Layoffs are increasing. You know how it goes... thoughts?
EURJPY I Testing psychological levelWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** EURJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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EURAUD I How To Trade it This Week! 🚀Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** EURAUD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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DXY 15min alternative outlookFollow up from our last DXY post, this is our smaller time frame possibility if we don't break out of this range!
not a huge amount to add to this, very simple setup just an alternative to our bigger bias overall.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
BTC thoughts & summary (wedge formation & golden pocket)Hi everyone,
Clean wedge formation & looking for the 3rd drive into supply printing the local top and a reversal candle into next week down to $23,800 with a capitulation wick into the golden pocket .618 fib around $23,350 where buyers step in for a short squeeze.
Dow Jones in a bearish rising wedgeFollowing this wedge as DJ30 rose above its resistance. We are looking to see if it breaks the wedge and then falls below the support. Price could fall to 32500 and then continue rising up or we could be setting a lower high on the daily tf before a further correction down.
AUDUSD 26thn march For the AUD/USD currency pair involves the potential for a bullish move from the demand area located at the base of the previous swing. We have also noted an unfilled gap from previous weeks' price action and anticipate a downward shift to fill this gap.
As we move forward, we will be closely monitoring the supply area at our short-term swing high, with the possibility of a short move or a push through that high to initiate a lower move from the supply area marked above it. However, if these areas do not play out as expected, we will continue to wait for a bearish move, as we believe that the unfilled gap must eventually be filled.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
GBPUSD 26TH marchLet's take a look at the British pound to the US dollar pair following our DXY analysis. Our short-term outlook is bullish, with a potential push towards one of the areas of supply above, before an overall bearish move to the downside. We anticipate short moves overall for this pair this week, as we have already broken through some key structures in our last move, suggesting significant downward momentum.
As always, we'll be closely monitoring market openings and adjusting our strategy accordingly. The areas of supply above look particularly attractive for potential sales, as there is clear imbalance and momentum coming from the downside. Additionally, we have a major swing low that has yet to be tested, as well as a major swing high, creating opportunities for trades between these areas.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!"
stock rfx
Revise - following our dxy analysis, this is the British pound to the US dollar. We are looking for this to have a short term bullish push into one of the areas of supply above, which will lead us into an overall bearish move to the downside. We will be looking for overall short moves this week on this pair. We did take out some structures inside of our last move indicating to us that we could see significant pushes lower for this week. As always, we will monitor this as the market opens. And adjust accordingly to what we see, the areas of supply above look very. Good for sales, we have clear imbalance and momentum coming from the downside. We also have a major swing low that has not been tested yet as well as our major swing high there has not been tested, so will be looking for trade opportunities in between these areas.
"Let's take a look at the British pound to the US dollar pair following our DXY analysis. Our short-term outlook is bullish, with a potential push towards one of the areas of supply above, before an overall bearish move to the downside. We anticipate short moves overall for this pair this week, as we have already broken through some key structures in our last move, suggesting significant downward momentum.
As always, we'll be closely monitoring market openings and adjusting our strategy accordingly. The areas of supply above look particularly attractive for potential sales, as there is clear imbalance and momentum coming from the downside. Additionally, we have a major swing low that has yet to be tested, as well as a major swing high, creating opportunities for trades between these areas.
DXY 26th march Get ready for a week of exciting opportunities with the DXY! Our analysis shows that we have broken a major swing low, indicating a potential shift towards lower prices. However, we also broke a major high, signaling a bullish week ahead for the DXY. We've identified several demand zones below and a selection of supply areas above our current price action. Our strategy is to look for a potential short-term bearish move if price opens bullish, or a longer-term bullish move if price opens bearish. If we see a corrective move off the higher swings, such as the swing high and short-term swing high, we will anticipate a move back towards the downside.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
GBPCAD I Short and long opportunity!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** GBPCAD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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CHFJPY I How to Trade it This Week!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** CHFJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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