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Short-set-up

UUUU update - Terrible time for shortsUpdating my chart as it seems to be followed by a few lately and has proven accurate since breakout in Nov.. We may see a quick (C) down to the confluence of support (Trend, Fib and MA) which would constitute a spike, though it may have enough buying buoyancy to be rather shallow. Once correction is complete, this week will show the beginning of a W5 up to the $8 master resistance. It may get rejected there and correct up to 50% of the current 5 wave structure. That correction will be the LAST buying opportunity in UUUU/EFR
AMEX:UUUU
by ptero1492
8
BTGUSD Next Short Set-Up from HereBTGUSD Next Short Set-Up from Here The wider spread compared to BCHUSD has seen volume shrink away on this pair and swell on BCH. But it's still a good shorting vehicle nevertheless. It halved from 26 to 13 in a matter of days for example. "No coin is ever too low to sell" - to update a W D Gann quote for the 21st century. The downtrend is still strong here and the last 3 rallies have all failed at the upper dynamic. BTG remains vulnerable whilst trapped below this dominant line. Once 17.5 breaks it should fall away to the 13.2-12.1 range. And once 12 breaks the next obvious downside target becomes 6.5-6.0 Will follow Bitcoin around as usual, just moves faster. Not ready to short again yet but worth setting an alert for maybe.
B
by sumastardon
ETHBTC Target Achieved - Next Short Set-Up from HereETHBTC This has been a good short through most of August, down 20%+ from the 542 break level to 426 now. There was a second chance to short again from the lower green arrow as it broke the continuation pattern at 46 which has yielded close to 10% this week. But it's making a little double bottom here and the near term downside target has been touched precisely so it's time to close out again if you haven't already done so. Next short opportunity comes on a break below 4165 looking for 3440 initially and then 2345
by sumastardon
NEOUSD Next Short Set-Up From HereNEOUSD Update and Next Trade Points It's been a week since the last scan across the top 20 or so coins. A lot has happened in 7/8 days. Remember that no coin is too low to sell and likelwise in a bull market no coin is too high to buy. Remember also that we play a game of probability. Some play momentum and volatility and some play hunches and mistaken beliefs. Few are right. The majority are wrong - up to 95% of retail currency traders lose money. (If currency trading was easy, we'd be doing it here a lot more. It isn't. So we don't) So we know the odds are stacked against from the outset. With this is mind is it 'easier' to sell the dust and forget about the diamond - or are you so damn good you can find 'the one' ? If it's the latter please share ; ) Until that day arrives we are probably better to try nailing the losers. And there have been some good ones over the last week. Here are some: they will follow Bitcoin as usual. They will rally more than the great death-star itself and fall more when Bitcoin fails. Some offering fantastic gearing opportunities without the need to resort to excessive margin trading. NEOUSD This was a sell from 20.87 and weak whilst trapped below 21 with a downside target at 13. It fell to 13.64 before rallying. That's a big double bottom at 13.25 in fact. But the trend is still neagtive despite the 50% counter rally since. To break free of the relentless bear prssure here it will need Bitcoin's help to arrive soon now. In it's continuing absence NEO will break the the little dynamic under price now and retst the lows at 13.64-13.25. A decent short when it breaks . But not until. It's holding up with Bitcoin for now. An eventual break below 13 here will be another extremely bearish signal pointing to further sustained weakness back to the spike low at 3.79. Lesser potential support centered around 6 may serve to induce a counter rally of 50% as we are seeing now. Big moves in little numbers.
BITFINEX:NEOUSDShort
by sumastardon
GBPUSD:Look to sell the Counter Rally in GBP before next declineGBPUSD Sterling has spent all of August in free-fall. After breaking below the support line at 1.3029 it's finished the week right on the next line of support at 1.2766 after a low on Friday at 1.2723 . It should counter-rally some more from here, potentially as high as 1.2928-1.2957 at best before it comes off again back to current levels at least. On the downside any failure on Monday to hold up from 1.2766 and from 1.2720 at the lowest will trigger further near term weakness back to 1.2596. Worth a short if we see it happen with stops above 1.2770. Otherwise can look to short again from 1.2928-1.2957 range, as above. * For fastest real-time updates please see link to Global Markets at top left of main page.
Short
by sumastardon
USOIL: WTI June 3 Trade Points For Week AheadWTI USOIL: June 3rd Trade Points for Week Ahead Good call/bad call last week here. Was looking to close out the short as the week began at around the 66.48 line and then reversed long from here looking for 69.48. A forlorn hope.The rally got as high as 68.63 before failing away to end the week 1 pip below the next key support at 65.55 - and busted out the long stop just under 66.47 for a few pips loss as it fell, before a little bear closing at the end of the week to finish at 65.69. This price action has left WTI on a knife edge, saved by the closing bell at the downside limit and in desperate need of buyers right here to avoid a another plunge to 61.92 initially. Any fall below 65.40 can be shorted using a stop above the 66.48 line to begin with looking for 61.92 initial downside..Any subsequent fall below here will signal further weakness to 60.21 and later to 58.25 as we move through the summer months Looking at upside potential from here, the 65.55-65.50 level is critical to the medium term trend. Bulls know full well this is their last stand for the summer ahead. It may well try to rally away from here but am not looking to buy it again after the pattern it's made since the last rally attempt. But it may tempt contarians...in which case please use a stop only 10 or so pips under the lows of last week and be ready to reverse short if broken. Am hoping for a good break lower here - but it may defy us a while longer yet if it can find some respite right here. If so, be prepared wait a little longer still or perhaps consider setting an alert
TVC:USOILShort
by sumastardon
1
AMAZON: AMZN Big Short Set Up Amazon AMZN Short Set- Up We've seen this pattern so many times before in Bitcoin...just 100 times faster. It's the best practice you can get for life outside crytos, life in the slow-lane. It's broken the parallel and now is trying to sneak back up the underside. This pattern usually signals that this is going to break to the downside very soon now. When it does, follow it short looking for 1353 minimum and quite likely 1266 or lower. Stops above the little dynamic now holding up price when broken.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by sumastardon
Gold XAUUSD and Dollar Index DXY UpdateGOLD and DXY Gold and Dollar Index Update DXY did come off from where it was meant to last week but has put up more than just a fight so far in the 92.74-92.50 range. The fight back was to be expected, but it's doing better than envisaged so far here - and these conclicting signals urge caution now ...no interest in getting involved in a battle of whipsaw here but will look to back the winner again here when one emerges...DXY has gapped up today, double bottomed and left a pin bar lying around in the space between the two blue lines of fixed support shown on chart...bullish signals. But it's still trapped within the parallels which are trying to force price lower. Something has to give here soon. ...A break above the upper parallel would be the next bullish signal from DXY - look to get long DXY on the next retest of the parallel from above, once broken to upside, and get long USDEUR and short Gold on this development too. On downside DXY has to stay under the upper parallel for the bears to keep control from here - then they have to force DXY down to fill the gap today at 92.89 and then push it below 92.55 again for DXY to turn negative again from here. As it stands the bears are beginning to lose this battle, not enough fire-power to force DXY lower from here by the look of the chart. Early hours of this battle, still, but increasingly the bulls are beginning to wrest back control here. Confimation will come when the upper parallel is broken and survives the next retest. At that point we look to short gold (if signals there are not already given) and get long USDEUR.
TVC:DXY
by sumastardon
USDTRY USD Turkish Lira Short set-up with big potentialUSDTRY US Dollar Turkish Lira This is striking impulse wave: and when it breaks down it's a fabulous short Cannot short this whilst within the power of this massive impulse wave. But once it falls out of the parallel it becomes a massive short - once broken, look for any retest of the parallel from the underside once broken as a second shorting opportunity with stops above the parallel. This break down could be imminent...worth watching this one. It could come all the way back down to the longer term trend line, given enough time. It will likely form a trend as it does so...draw in the parallels as it emerges and stay short whilst it's trapped within them. Good one, looks like, even if a little exotic. A trend is a trend, wherever it originates!
Short
by sumastardon
1
Dollar Index: DXY Update and Key levels for next breakDollar Index: DXY So far DXY is displaying precisely the kind of technical price action you'd expect of something in the process of breaking down lower...the tiny continuation pattern with a bearish upwards slope, every move contained within the parallels that control this inverted flag formation. The dollar will try to rally from the lower parallel of the flag so we need to step off the gas around now if shorting USD across the pairs. Contrarians may look to go long USD again here but be careful if you do...at some point soon DXY is going to fail, breaking below the lower parallel - the point to go aggressively short USD again and to go long Gold once more, looking for 92.62 on DXY and 1305 on Gold.
TVC:DXYShort
by sumastardon
Gold:XAUUSD Playing the game of push/pull with DXY Gold: XAUUSD How DXY is the gold trader's best friend right now So far gold has behaved in the bear-mangling mode expected of it since the dollar broke down below key support on DXY at 94.26 (right hand chart) but it wasn't too smart to let it go again at 1290. That rally on Friday was vicious for bears - the shape of price action as gold turned resistance at 1281 into support shows the market adjusting before gold powers 16 points north, a volte-face - which you would have been expecting if you've been experienced enough, wise enough to run the two charts in tandem. If you don't you're dealing with a blindfold over one eye... The pin bars on the one hour chart here show strong rejection at 1296.78 down to current levels at 1293 and a streak of uncontested green...very rare for a space like that to remain uncontested and it should flip back to 1288, and potentially to 1284 before it rallies again. On the other side of the street, we can see that DXY is flipping in a range beween 93.99 (the high for the week was exactly 93.99 as forecast, giving a precise point at which to sell gold - with stops only triggered in event that DXY breaks above 94 and holds, in which case DXY is going up and Gold is going back down. Just the best duo/tandem trade there is in almost any market anywhere. Use it or lose it. Probably the best companion a gold trader can ever have. DXY: Dollar index Through all the noise of currency pairs and most commodity markets there is a still, small, much neglected voice that can tell usually show you the bigger picture/helicopter view of all that close combat fighting going on below. Not always, but usually. DXY, so far since the breakdown at 94.26, has been very helpful. It's flipping between 94 key resistance and 93.50 key near term support and this is what's causing such grief and whipsaw in the price of gold. Right now it's giving mixed near term signals... believe it will break lower still eventually, but the chart is not confirming that here....it's just double bottomed at 93.50...was Ok to bounce here for sure but that was quite a big bounce - pins at top and botttom of move...just near term a little confusing, at least to this writer anyway. But gold is toppy near term and DXY is showing a double bottom near term. If it can rally from here then it should push back up to the 93.99 where it should meet profit takers. (Do same with gold shorts at that point). And only if DXY can then manage to break above 94 and hold is the tide turning back in favour of Dollar, at which point we look to short gold again. And on the other side, if at any point DXY breaks 93.50 it enters a zone of uncertainty/whipsaw between 93.50 and 93.35 where positions can sudddenly reverse - like quicksand on a map this zone cannot be trusted - a zone to avoid if possible. However, if at any point DXY is driven below 93.5 for more than 2 hours it will become llikely that support is eroding and it should start to fall away quite hard to 92.80-92.62 - and thereby triggering aggressive gold longs.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by sumastardon
3
BITCOIN: BTCUSD Short set-up hereBitcoin: BTCUSD For what it's worth right now, and looking at the bigger picture and pattern developing in first moment of calm since rising from bed, believe that Bitcoin is most likely to bottom at 5098 - a long way down from here - that view will only change if Bitcoin continues to hold up around current values and then turns up and breaks through parallel as described earlier...unless and until we see that Bitcoin is still very vulnerable - don't look to play this long unless 6515 is broken on upside - look for shirting opportunities and use stops to stay safe....can you see the stop? is it close by ? then trade for small loss if wrong.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
3
BCH/DOLLAR: BCHUSD 20% Short set-up when Bitcoin turns back upBCH/DOLLAR BCHUSD Short Set-up Some interesting action by this crypto pair. Take a look on the 15 minute chart at the continuation patterns over just the last couple of days, just perfect, with great entry points. If you traded this since yesterday, so far so good. But when Bitcoin bottoms it will obviously snap back, giving bears a chance to hit it ...so this will be a good short to pair with Bitcoin BTCUSD on the buy side, when the turn comes...(see Bitcoin comments). Right now BCH is just making the beginnings of another continuation pattern as Bitcoin sticks around 6305-6220 on downside, so this is not tradeable yet - but when Bitcoin finally wriggles free of the central parallel and then breaks the last parallel on the upside, then will be the time to short BCH/Bitcoin and BCHUSD. The space down to 1210 is full of whip right now and can easily break higher still if Bitcoin breaks lower still, as it's still quite likely to, so far, by look of Bitcoin chart. But it doesn't have to, unfortunately. So: If bitcoin breaks lower from 6000-5990 this will go higher still. And conversely, if Bitcoin finds a bottom at 6220, as it has done so far, this will crash back to 976 at least with easiest part of the trade being from 1200 down to 995 - a nice 20% short...worth watching this/setting alert for any break of 1210 , (confirmed by Bitcoin double bottoming at 6220 and turning back up) so you're ready...could be a good one.
BShort
by sumastardon
S&P 500 Short set-up from hereS&P 500 Index SPX500 The last short got stopped out at even - right idea, wrong double top. Now it's fallen below the parallel that's been guiding this impulse wave since summer lows...it's trying to make a feeble counter-rally back to kiss the underside of the lower parallel before it falls away again to 2566-2564 range where it should make a rally attempt to form the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern now forming here. Sell from 2580 or as close to as possible with stop above 2583 for 3 point loss if wrong...once 2564 breaks after a first bounce from there of up to 11 points back to 2573-2577 range it should fall again at least back to 2564 and then when that fails to 2541. Two short trades here worth following
FX:SPX500Short
by sumastardon
Brent Crude Oil: UKOIL Still not too late to short BrentBrent Crude Oil UKOIL Update Had to update this position via original comment whilst embargo was still on, repeated here (sic): Hva etaken a short position with tight stop at 64.72 but ready to reverse, as above. High so far 64.62 - close but not hit yet. That has proved to be the high so far as the Opec meeting gathered. Still don't think it's too late here to short. It should come off all the way down to the lower parallel at around the 60 mark for 370 pips from here, but the first downside target is 61.67, still good for 200 pips here, give or take. Am lowering the stop now to 64.30 to get out with about 15 pips profit if it goes wrong from here. But sell just before the meeting worked very well last time, so hope we see the same kind of result this time too.
FX:UKOILShort
by sumastardon
5
USDJPY: Time to close any last longs and and reverse positionsUSDJPY The breakout to the upside never materialised. The upside target for USD longs here was at the 114.30-114.50 range. Frustratingly the high on Thursday was 2 pips shy of the lower end at 114.30. Close, but no cigar. Hope you were still able to get out close to the top though. We still need to see a break above 114.55 to go long USD again, but yesterday's news from the Fed isn't going to give it the impetus by look of price action. As this is written another near term top is being formed on this pair, so am going to risk some of yesterday's profits on this pair on a short from 114.01 current levels with a stop 25 pips away and see how it goes.
Short
by sumastardon