LINK to $3.50 end of Jan 2020 @ top of ascending channel +LINK (ChainLink) long term outlook still looks quite bullish, riding well over the multi-year support and still holding a much higher and near parallel, bullish ascending channel. We are currently sitting at bottom of channel, minimizing entry risk but entry should be leashed with a short Trailing Stop Loss.
Top of channel is $3.52 or so around the end of January 2020, a month from this write up. Because we may also be seeing a wedge form here, we could see a really nice breakout that could occur earlier in January where as that $3.52 would already be support by end of January (or break down to $1.50 historical support).
There is downside potential where as the mid-term trends could reverse (though currently no indication of such), likely we would be caught by the the historical horizontal/logical support @ $1.50 or worst case our multi-year long-term trend-line below would catch us. Right now a downtrend seems really improbable though hinged on the health of the global market.
This ascending channel could actually play out for a couple of years before forcing LINK to choose between maintaining the channel and breaking its ATH.
I am pro-link long as well as bullish long term and for the next month or so for a channel swing trade, holding both in long-term and short-term positions and accruing more now. This is not investment advice, just some of my market observations published. DYOR.
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Short-term-trade
Last wave in short term?Last very short-term analysis:
The price moved back and forth in this rest period. Now 1528$ (R1) may become new support to start 5th wave (green scenario) or may not and S1 act as support (orange scenario).
Note that It is a very risky situation. Price has reached medium term high and close to long term high. watch your position and set reasonable SL and TP.
Holiday Shortened Week Will See Fireworks in S&P 500This brief projection is based on a full study of the current Intermediate Wave 1 I am tracking for the S&P 500 index. We will see upward movement to begin the week with a top in the afternoon on July 2, 2019. We will likely drop 5-10 points into the close on this day.
The light blue numbers with parentheses around them represent each wave's end point for the Minuette waves. These projections are likely to be the most accurate on this projection chart.
The orange roman numeral 4 with a circle around it represents the projected end point for Minute wave 4. This is relatively in place, but likely to change based on the actual movement experienced through Minute wave 3 (orange roman numeral with circle around it).
The ultimate top for Intermediate wave 1 is currently projected to occur in the afternoon on July 8, 2019 with a peak around 3048-3064. This would mean a new all time high is set to occur (likely multiple times between now and then). In trying to apply real world events to a reason for a top and then a decline would likely revolve around the Fed. They will most likely NOT cut interest rates as many expect. They may however leave the door open for cuts as necessary in the future. This could see the index pullback over a total of 8 trading days with a bottom around 2875.04.
I am forecasting Intermediate wave 3 to be incredibly strong and last for up to 2 months or around the time of the 2020 US government fiscal year begins. It would be earnings season which could be the reason for a rising market (even if it is not fundamentally warranted). The end of the 2019/beginning of 2020 fiscal year could likely lead to a partisan fight in DC over what the budget should look like especially in a pre-election year.
This is as far out as I plan to forecast for now, and will adjust as necessary. I am bullish on the market until the second quarter next year. I foresee a major recession beginning next year well before the 2020 election.
Short opportunity, SP500 set to fall IF some conditions are met!As you may know, the SP500 has been rallying since the FED chairman, Jerome Powell, pivoted to a more easy interest rate policy. Moreover, it has also been pushed by signals indicating that the United States and China could reach a trade agreement soon and that could end as well the government shutdown. Tomorrow, 14/02/2019 and 02/15/2019, senior officials of both countries will meet to find a solution to their disputes.
Despite this good news, my fundamental and technical analysis indicates that Wall Street will soon fall for the following reasons:
- The stupendous results of the companies in the last quarters, due to tax cuts, are decreasing. Wall Street is already showing worse results than the previous quarter.
- There is still a lot of uncertainty around the world, even so, the SP is close to historical maximums.
- Technical analysis shows a clear resistance at current levels, which will be overcome only in the event that the USA and China reach a commercial agreement.
- There has been a 36% decrease in short positions in the last three days, indicating a possible change in trend.
I personally will open a short position IF ALL the points mentioned below are met:
- USA and China do not reach a commercial agreement in the coming days.
- The RSI and the MACD break down.
- The SP500 breaks the uptrend line.
GBPJPY Trade Idea - LongRapid increase of price of GBPJPY can be seen yesterday. There are still some rooms for the price to increase.
Pending order of buy will be placed on price retracement, expecting the price to retrace around 144.250, with stop loss around 143.7. Take profit will be at around 145.730.
Price break 145.75 will expose second take profit area, around 146.250.
MA Long on Short-TermBuy Limit 208.00
Stop Loss 198.00
Doji star with 2 gaps is formed at support line. It just reached 0.618 Fib retracement level.
Many NASDAQ stocks have similar formations, which means that the market is turning uptrend
S&P500, DJI and NASDAQ are at important support level.
RSI went down too quickly. It means an imminent up in price.
I will give a sell indication later.
Stay tuned for update
LONG Bitcoin to 7000 SHORT TERM TRADEYou can see on the 1hr chart that there is a flag and pennant forming, and based on the martin trendline indicator it's been validated as bullish throughout the formation so i think we will see another spike up of a similar amount or magnitude, ~$300 like the previous jump from 64 to now at 67. You can also see on the volume oscillators spikes supporting the bullish price move.
Not sure how long this bullish momentum will carry on but a good time to reevaluate is 6900-7000 and watch for any red candles on the martin trendline, which would indicate a reversal most likely so stop loss at 6681.
Taken in the larger context we are approaching a long set upper parallel with the flag and pennant which i think means we are going to have a breakout from the upper trendline. Or we could get rejected and be heading down with a loss of $22.3. Based on a $1000 account with 100% risk, Risk/Reward ratio is 8.72x so your risk is $22.3 and your potential reward is $281.
Upcoming Bump For S&P 500The S&P has been relatively predictable when applying some Elliott Wave Theory principles. While we are in the final stretches before we hit a major correction, a smaller one is on the horizon. The pull back will not be much, but jockeying for position is not bad.
The index should find a top around June 14 around 2791.91. This will be followed by a drop over the next 1-3 weeks. My projection has the bottom most likely between 2670 and 2740. I am leaning between 2700 and 2733. After this bottom, I expect major upward movement through early to mid-September. We could test 3100 during this rally.
When projecting moves based on wave theory, I try to also identify real world items that could be cause for these moves. June 14 coincides with the end of the US-NK summit, Fed policy decision, and looming trade conflicts between the US, its allies and China. What ever the case may be, I am positioning for this pending drop and ready to ride the final wave 3 high into September.
XMR/BTC Monero LONG (Short-Term Trade, Realize Profit 1-2 Weeks)Monero testing 7 day (short-term) RSI undervalued. This line (20) hasn't been broken since November 2017 and current chart patterns look quite similar to the long decline that occured before November 2017 as well. Briefly tested in April but very quickly bounced back, it has tested this line 3 times in recent days and may break through but will very likely bounce back strongly if it does. Good short-term entry around 0.02 BTC price.
Bitcoin Cash #1 - Short term targets $1800 and $2100Short term trade
Potential until or above $4000
Easily above 0.3 btc
IBM Pullback?In my humble opinion there was a sort of overreaction triggered by short selling yesterday upon IBM's earnings call. Numbers were not great and guidance was lowered. Nevertheless, the blue chip has created a stronger position to capture growth in the IT business related to cloud computing, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence technologies (15% yoy growth).
I predict a short-term movement upwards shortly after the consolidation period or even today. Do not miss the rally to the support/demand zone, which serves as moderate price level for the IBM stock. The average lowest price target by analysts is $152.00.
However, there is also a strong possibility of decline if bears attack again. Evaluate a stop loss that take into account a false break out scenario that may likely bust the upward breakout in direction to the support zone.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***