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EURCAD Long Trade SetupIt seems like a running flat is in the making between the green lines. If so, we should get an upward impulse for the completion of the wave B. That's why I'm looking for long trade setups. As you can see, my expectation is more downside first because we have a nice Fib confluence around 1.47050 between 0.886 of the green A and 1.272 of the blue A. That being said, we can have a reversal immediately. After this point, whenever I see a trade setup, I'll place a pending order.
Long
by WaveAnalysis
Seasonal Indigestion In Stocks At The End Of Q3The fall months are my favorite. The cool weather is a welcome change from the hot and humid days of summer. There are few sights more pleasing than the turning of the leaves over the coming weeks as the change works its way from north to south as temperatures drop. The stock market has more than a few bad memories during the fall season. The great crash of 1929 occurred in October, as did the 1987 plunge in share prices. In 2008, an October plunge was the most significant stock market decline during the global financial crisis. September 20th was a reminder ‘Tis the season to be cautious The Fed remains accommodative- The debt is a compelling reason Taxes are the problem A correction is overdue, but that does not mean it is coming Last week, we witnessed the first signs of fall indigestion in the stock market, which had risen to its most recent all-time high on September 2. September 20th was a reminder Last Monday, the stock market fell. After making a new record high on September 2, the S&P 500 had been making lower highs leading to the most substantial decline in months. As the chart highlights, the S&P 500 rose to another all-time high at 4,545.85 on September 2, made lower highs, and dropped on Monday, September 20, reaching a low of 4,305.91, a 5.3% decline. Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and the correction was long overdue. By the end of last week, the index was back at the 4,455 level after filling the gap on the short-term chart. However, it remained below the 4,471.52 level, the September 17 high. September 20 was a reminder that the potential for a substantial correction has increased with each new high in the S&P 500. ‘Tis the season to be cautious The stock market always gets the jitters in the early fall. Memories of price carnage during October crashes are indelibly etched in trader’s and investor’s minds. For those that did not live through or forgot the 1987 and 2008 selloffs, the financial media reminds them of the danger at this time of the year. The media pundits know that provoking fear makes for great copy and increased viewership. After all, the media’s primary job is selling advertising. Fear makes more people tune in each day for longer to keep tabs on what is happening. Meanwhile, it is the season to be cautious in the fall of 2021 because bullish and bearish factors are pulling the stock market in opposite directions. The long-term price trend remains bullish, and most investors are long stocks. However, rising interest rates and taxes are not bullish for stocks, and they are on the horizon. The Fed remains accommodative- The debt is a compelling reason Last week, we heard from the US central bank as the Federal Open Market Committee held its September meeting. The outcome was a non-event as the Fed kept the Fed Funds rate at zero percent and did not alter its quantitative easing debt security purchases at $120 billion per month. The decision was unanimous. Meanwhile, the devil was in the details as the central bank told the market that it could begin tapering quantitative easing before the end of 2021. It also guided that a consensus of members believe liftoff from zero percent short-term rates would occur in late 2022, with three to four increases in the Fed Funds rate coming in 2023. The projections depend on inflation averaging over 2% for an “extended” period and a move towards full employment. Chairman Powell put more meat on the bone at his press conference, making him sound more hawkish on monetary policy than the statement. He said QE tapering could begin as early as at the next meeting and could finish in mid-2022. If the Fed begins tapering in November at a rate of $15 billion per month, it will complete the process by July 2022. At that point, the central bank could consider increasing short-term rates. Tapering is not tightening; it is just less monetary policy accommodation. Many issues over the coming months could stall a move towards setting the stage for tightening credit, which could weigh on stocks and other asset prices as bonds compete with other asset classes for investment capital. Meanwhile, the US government is working to unleash an unprecedented $3.5 trillion budget package and another $1 trillion in infrastructure spending. The government also needs to increase the debt ceiling as it bumps up against the current $28.5 trillion level. At the end of last week, it stood above that level at the $28.8 trillion level. As the Fed moves slowly to tighten credit, the government’s fiscal policy will more than compensate, allowing targeted stimulus to flood the financial system. The Fed is between a rock and a hard place as increasing interest rates will cause the cost of servicing debt to rise substantially. Each twenty-five-basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate causes debt servicing costs to rise by an incredible $72 billion. The debt is a compelling reason for the Fed to remain highly accommodative. If Chairman Powell is unwilling to go along with the government’s spendthrift agenda, expect a replacement. Chairman Powell’s hawkish tone at the latest press conference could turn out to be his swan song. Progressive Democrats have told President Biden they want him to replace the sitting Fed chief when his term expires in 2022. The left-wing of the President’s party wants a Fed Chair that follows climate change and equity initiatives. Any replacement will sing a far more dovish tune for monetary policy than the sitting Fed Chairman. A replacement would likely light another inflationary fuse, due to a far slower approach to tapering and increasing the Fed Funds rate. Taxes are the problem The bills are coming due for the global pandemic, and they are enormous. Meanwhile, the spending continues as climate change, and social initiatives are going to cost trillions. The administration has rolled out its plan to increase corporate taxes and taxes on the “wealthiest” Americans with incomes over $400,000 for individuals and $450,000 for married couples, along with bumping up capital gains rates, inheritance, and many other taxes. Meanwhile, the increases may not scratch the surface in paying for the spending, but it could throw a monkey wrench into markets. Higher corporate rates will cause prices to rise as corporations pass along the costs to consumers. Higher taxes will leave less capital for share buybacks, and earnings will likely decline from projected levels. The bottom line is that higher taxes are likely to weigh on stocks. Higher taxes and rising interest rates could create a potent bearish cocktail for the stock market over the coming weeks and months. A correction is overdue, but that does not mean it is coming All signs point to an ugly correction in the stock market. However, signals can be misleading. When the US elected Donald Trump as the 45th President, many analysts predicted the stock market would fall like a stone, but it exploded higher. Other analysts thought that putting Joe Biden in the Oval Office would mean a severe correction in the last election. Stocks continued to make new highs. Higher taxes and rising interest rates are a prescription for lower stock prices, but they are not guaranteed. The Fed plans are to eliminate QE by mid-2022 and begin the liftoff from a zero percent Fed Funds rate late next year. However, there may be a new economist at the head of the central bank with a far more progressive agenda in 2022. Meanwhile, the budget and tax increases need Congressional approval, which is not guaranteed. The bottom line is that moderate Democrats and Republicans are not in favor of adding trillions to the US debt and increasing taxes that will filter down to all consumers. There are lots of what ifs facing the stock market over the coming weeks and months, which could cause lots of volatility on the up and the downside. Follow those trends; they are your only friends. Ignore the experts as no one has any idea about the future. Remember, the current level of the stock market is always the right level. More aggressive buying or selling will establish the path of least resistance of prices. Go with the flow! There is seasonal indigestion at the end of Q3. The future is uncertain. Put aside the fear and embrace the trends. We will find out soon if the price action on September 20 was the start of a correction or a one-day wonder that will put the market on a course for even higher highs. -- Join us for the Monday Night Call each week - link included below. There's also a link to sign up for early access to these articles as well. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
SP:SPX
by Andy_Hecht
3
GBPUSD Long Trade SetupIt's too early to say, but it looks like a running flat is in the making between the green lines. Based on that structure, my forecast is an upward impulse. That's why I'm looking for a long trade setup, and it seems like we have a reversal impulse after the complete expanding flat between the blue lines. Now, I'm waiting for a small correction to place a pending order. Instead of an upward impulse, a correction can be the next structure for more downside, but it's OK because in this case, I'll have time to hedge my trade.
Long
by WaveAnalysis
2
Another correction before the final pump to 100K+ BTC ? Hi all, my first post here. I did an Elliot wave count on bitcoin since the end of the 2018 bear market, where the next bull run actually began. Looks like we are still in the corrective 4th wave of the long-term bull phase. And the recent drop could have started the c wave correction of the final phase of the 4th wave. What do you guys think? To support the thesis, one can also see the momentum divergences and volume divergences that mimic the April-May carnage on the charts. Not trying to push fud around but just some technical analysis. I know that the on-chain metrics and yadi yada are bullish and all, but that ain't stopping whales to dump their bags. Hodlers can chill but 50X longers need to keep an eye out. Not Financial Advice, have a great Sunday :)
Short
by PeacockCapitalMarkets
2
BTCUSD potential short coming up! Hi guys, This is my first post on TV but I am excited to join the community. I will be sharing some of my thoughts around day/swing trading Crypto and perhaps more instruments at a later stage as my TA and philosophy mature. I decided to share some TA around the big boy BTC as my first go at making my TA public. As always guys, this is not financial advice and purely ideas around what trades I am looking at next. Here we go, We recently got rejected by the weekly level combined with the trend line which flipped as resistance. We're currently bouncing at a support zone I had lined out with the blue box (and I am long from 47k). We're currently supported by: POC of the range Daily level Global sellers .5 fib 1H 200 EMA (not shown) Previous resistance/support zone Multiple fib levels My next trade would be a SHORT at the golden pocket (highlighted in red) and confluence for the short would be: Untapped .66 from the seller's fib Daily level Previous support waiting to be flipped as resistance the resistance trend line We have a volume POC in that zone I expect increasing bearish divergence on the 1H+ time frames ENTRY: 49.3k - 49.5k INVALIDATION: 49.8k: I prefer a tight stop loss as we might see a short squeeze in case we consolidate under the golden pocket TAKE PROFIT: take profit 1 will be 45.5. I will monitor market structure and the strength of the rejection to find the next take profits. Let me know your thoughts and if you are also looking for a short as your next day-trade.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by christophergeeltrader
6
Moderna getting ready for a move higher, Maybe $500+ level(s)Ive been watching the recent uptick figuring there would be a place to sneak in and ride it down to ride back up even higher than it just moved since I missed that ride. She fell rite to my line and held rite around it. Personally i think the $386 level is in play but only if it continues down under $410. once it taps that line or the bottom of the triangle once maybe twice I believe it will make a new ATH over $500. I added some extras levels for reference.
NASDAQ:MRNAShort
by ahancovsky
EURGBP Long Trade SetupWe may have an expanding flat, which might be over at the last low. If this is the case, a reversal structure should be in the making. I don't want to place an order above the reversal impulse because it can make a correction and new low. That's why I'm waiting for a complete correction and a small trade setup to place a pending order. I'll move SL to BE when the last top is broken and see what will happen next. My target is 0.87150 for a complete running flat.
Long
by WaveAnalysis
XAUUSD Long Trade SetupIn the bigger picture, a correction for more downside should be in the making, and we should be in its C wave. That's why my expectation is more upside, and my target is 1924. I think we have 2 options here. The structure between the blue lines can be a complete running flat, which looks pretty ugly, or a correction like between the green lines is in the making. In both case we should see some upward movements. That's why I placed a pending order over the trade setup. If it makes the wave B, I'll hedge my trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WaveAnalysis
EURUSD Short Trade SetupIt seems like a correction is in the making between the orange lines after the daily upward impulse from 1.063. Currently, the B wave should be in the making. So, my expectation is the C wave for a complete running flat. But, before that impulse, it looks like more downside is more likely. That's why I want to take a short trade to hedge it at 1.16200 where we have a nice Fib confluence. I think we have a complete expanding flat under the blue trendline. If I'see a valid reversal structure, I'll place a sell stop order. That being said, I'll take a long trade if I see a correction for more upside.
Short
by WaveAnalysis