Short-term
Holiday Shortened Week Will See Fireworks in S&P 500This brief projection is based on a full study of the current Intermediate Wave 1 I am tracking for the S&P 500 index. We will see upward movement to begin the week with a top in the afternoon on July 2, 2019. We will likely drop 5-10 points into the close on this day.
The light blue numbers with parentheses around them represent each wave's end point for the Minuette waves. These projections are likely to be the most accurate on this projection chart.
The orange roman numeral 4 with a circle around it represents the projected end point for Minute wave 4. This is relatively in place, but likely to change based on the actual movement experienced through Minute wave 3 (orange roman numeral with circle around it).
The ultimate top for Intermediate wave 1 is currently projected to occur in the afternoon on July 8, 2019 with a peak around 3048-3064. This would mean a new all time high is set to occur (likely multiple times between now and then). In trying to apply real world events to a reason for a top and then a decline would likely revolve around the Fed. They will most likely NOT cut interest rates as many expect. They may however leave the door open for cuts as necessary in the future. This could see the index pullback over a total of 8 trading days with a bottom around 2875.04.
I am forecasting Intermediate wave 3 to be incredibly strong and last for up to 2 months or around the time of the 2020 US government fiscal year begins. It would be earnings season which could be the reason for a rising market (even if it is not fundamentally warranted). The end of the 2019/beginning of 2020 fiscal year could likely lead to a partisan fight in DC over what the budget should look like especially in a pre-election year.
This is as far out as I plan to forecast for now, and will adjust as necessary. I am bullish on the market until the second quarter next year. I foresee a major recession beginning next year well before the 2020 election.
Short term Analysis - BTC to 13k but then what?COINBASE:BTCUSD is currently in a descending parallel channel, but has a nice support on 10.5 k (2.27 on fib) so once the parallel channel squeezes near the support BTC should be going up again. But then what? It will hit a 13 k (3.27 on fib) resistance, will it have enough momentum to break through? All sorts of news outlets are reporting on BTC so, once the price gets going again, we should have a FOMO fueling the rally. If we break the 13 k resistance I think we might see prices as high as 15.5 k (4.27 on fib).
So I would buy the dip gradually between 10.75 and 10.5 k with stop loss at 10.1 k
On the other hand, if the down trend channel breaks the 10.5 k support, than I regret to say that this bull run is probably over. The "good news"? We'll have support at 8.8 k and 7.5 k.
PS: I'm quite new to trading and this is my first published analysis - Please give feedback so I can improve and learn from your insight :)
Aud/Usd WorkHarder Day-Trading Manual Day #1Start date: 27 June 2019
30 days day trading project. Day number #1 27 June 2019
Step 1
Look at 50 and 100 days simple moving average on weekly chart, if price is lower then cross over point, we will short. If price higher then cross over point we will long.
Step 2
Look at 5min chart with ATR 288
Step 3
Look at graph everyday at 12midnight
Step 4
Add ATR to 12midnight opening price if we are going long. Subtract atr to 12midnight price if we going short.
This will be your entry price.
Wait for 24 hours, if price not triggered, please cancel order.
Step 5
Cancel order if trade did not take place the next day.
Step 6
Repeat step 1 on 12mn
To know when to take profit please keep track of my aussie idea
Current price during analysis
0.69898 at 12mn
27 Jun 2019
short when price hit 0.7098
by 27 June 2019
+8 GMT
If price does not hit 0.7098 by 28 Jun 2019 12mn, position will be cancelled.
Pullback Imminent: Opportunity to Short MACD, Stochastic and RSI all reversing and bouncing off the top of the bollinger band. Opportunity to short on the pullback. Price expected to drop to $132 where the 50day average is and if it breaks that support, possible drop to $120-122 region on the trendline support.
BTC time to rest after a long run up Let's take a look at a bigger picture of BTC moves.
It appears that a long run up must end with a bit of a 'rest'.
Normally, it is roughly a 40% (of the size of the run up) reduction or so the past dictates. The past year's events of this nature were circled on the chart.
It appears that last year it was also around June.
Interestingly this price reduction would coincide with the area of strong support at $6000.
Adding this up I see us going there first before resetting the course up again.
For educational purposes and record of play.
Short Term UpdateIn the short term, daily chart, there is a congestion between the kama 20-periods and the first line of price deviation.
I don't know where it will break but there remains a conflict between the monthly chart, with a confirmed bullish signal, and the weekly one where the bitcoin seems weak.
This is why i'm not buying at market but i'll leave, at least for this month, the BUY STOP ORDER at 9100$.
Kama v1.21 is out and public, to see this chart just add it on your template using these settings:
BB dev 20
BB Periods 500
Length 20
Fastend 0.73
Slowend 0.0625
Show.Ind 1 checked
Show.Ind 2 unchecked (check this if you want to decide by yourself the volatility level of the price bands defined by the Delta parameter, 0.03 for daily, 0.11 for monthly chart)
Testing Resistance now. if we dont break we might retest SupportIt seems like we are testing resistance levels now and if we dont break through we might fall back down and retest support at 7500. if we break the support we have one more support until we have completed our short term 30% correction. Let me know your thoughts.