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BTC AnalysisThis is not a Trade, just a journal. Currently I am in BTC, LTC and several alts with no leveraged position. Weekly: Market is still showing signs of sideways action with bullish trends beginning to develop. My MA bias criteria currently shows a bullish cross on the weekly with price above the cross, but it is a cross at a downward slope, so only a medium bullish cross, still enough for a bullish bias based on MA. Long term weekly chart shows a failure last time MA's crossed bullish. Not predictive, but worth noting if entering any bullish position: PA Bias is also bullish following a price channel breakout 2 weeks ago, and consistently higher low and high closes on the last few candles + (presumably) the current weekly will as well. Will be watching for the close tomorrow to confirm. Once issue with PA bullish bias is the overall market consolidation pattern though: Higher Lows and Lower Highs on weekly closes over the past 4 months. Price is approaching strong resistance again around 4000-4100 where it has failed several times. A weekly candle must close above 4100 for a sustained bullish trend to develop. No weekly candle has done so over the past 4 months. Wether a new bull trend is about to develop or bull trap is about to occur Price action should push above 4100 soon. The 4100-4200 region has been a bull trap 4 times in the past 4 months, so be aggressive with stops on any long positions. A push above 4200 would create a large amount of liquidity for shorts. I have an interest into moving into cash at the 4100 level and only reentering if I see strong bullish signs on daily and weekly charts. Will only take leveraged shorts at that level after a large short liquidation with little follow through from bulls, and a drop back into the area. Will be watching for signs of traps and weakness above 4000. Overall sideways action and consolidation still highly probable with potential for BTC to develop a longer term sideways channel. Impossible to know, just a possibility I am keeping in mind to temper my bullish/bearish biases. Obv rising sharply, so I am expecting a drop on it soon to retest a previous peak. This translates to a red weekly candle within the next 1-4 weeks which will test or break the, in my opinion, important support around $3620 - retail stops are likely right below this level an represent a high liquidity area. The VPVR supports this idea in my opinion. For a real painful stop hunt and liquidity grab price could wick into the (marked) 3500-3540 area and still make a higher low on the weekly. That would be the most likely area for a strong bear trap if one is to occur. Long term trend is still technically bearish, however I see no reason to be overly bearish short term based on the weekly chart. Daily chart: MA bias - My daily MA system shows bearish cross and MAs, but with price above. So no real signal unless price gets back below the MAs, then bearish bias. PA bias - Weakly bearish Daily looks like a standard DOW-SFP developing. Confirmed on a new daily close below $3698. Price just pushed into an resistance area (marked) from before the sharp move up and fall (bull trap), wicked above and is now below with daily close soon. A close below that has a high probability of confirming a downward move before the 4100 test. However, many short stops are likely above that block, so worth keeping an eye on going into the daily and weekly closes. A daily close above 3940 invalidates bearish bias on daily. Daily shows a high probability entry area in the mid 3500's (marked) and as mentioned the weekly also shows a similar area, so this is where I will look for leveraged longs, if the opportunity arises. My daily mechanical system "DumpLoad" closed its previous long for a 6%+ gain if you followed nothing but the signal. I closed it earlier as mentioned in Discord. but has signaled another long (I have not taken on leverage, but am in the market with cash as mentioned). Based on this and the Price channel signal on March 5th, I have a spot BTC position. During consolidations the DumpLoad system can give false signals, but always nails large moves (you can see some write ups on it in my previous posts labeled "Mechanical System" OBV had a nice bullish breakout and retest. if it can hold that breakout level as support BTC has a much higher probability of staying bullish. Overall no strong signals on the daily, but today's close could change that. Will post an update after it closes and again tomorrow after the weekly close. Areas of interest based on current market structure mentioned above. This is not financial advice. These are my personal trades and journals. All material provided for educational purposes only.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Nevermorejk