Short-usdjpy
First Signal of Bear Market; WingTrades told you first.We are watching for the support at 252.94 to hold or we will prepare for a __bearish turn__ for the market. Depending on the setup, depth of pullback, angle over the 1d to 1w setup, etc... we will be able to better determine the extent. While we __do not yet expect the market to turn bearish__ 252.94 is an early sign and 240.48 would confirm it.
Watch Out for resistance levels, hard sell soon!As you can see the USD/JPY at the moment is in a clear uptrend. We are at a point now where we are about to pass through some important resistance levels which could be a big turning point for the pair. The first possible downtrend is due to the resistance level we saw appear twice last month which can be identified by the two down arrows on the left of the chart. I think we will pass through this level nicely and continue up to the next resistance level, as you can see the technical analysis is still pointing towards a buy and the RSI doesn't look like its being overbought however you can see that the ADX is starting to reach below the 20 zone which would indicate a weak trend. If we can pass through this resistance level okay I think the price will continue towards the next level (around 110.5). We saw this as a key resistance level back at the start of February however however the last spike seemed to pass through this fine and so I think Major Resistance at the moment is around 111.00. If you look on the daily chart we can see a strong descending trend line and so I think this is where we will see a dive in the price, however as you know with this pair anything can happen and if it can break through the 111.00 level then I think we have an incredibly strong chance of it reaching up for the 120.00 zone which would be interesting to see. At the moment I think we will carry this uptrend up to 111.00 and this is where I think we will see a break in the uptrend. If it does break the uptrend I think it will dive back down to the 105.00 area. At this moment I think I would be comfortable shorting the pair down to the 108.219 level which is where we have seen support previously. From there If it continues to dive I would be confident in shorting it again longer term down to 105 which would be big profits. I shall update further soon, happy trading!
USDJPY - Short setupHere we see price approaching a significant supply zone, where it has tested previously. The last sequence was a touch and then a retest to form an M before a large push down. The last time it tested this level there were 6 days between testing of the levels, this touch today makes 6 days between touches of the level once again. Could we see another M formation push down?
Additonally we see a large U formation at the supply zone pointing to a short bias, and potential double top. Looking for a 3:1 risk:reward setup with risk just above the supply zone.
USDJPY Short Opporunity in near term (1 hour chart)USDJPY
Near term short opporunity
Wave ii for USDJPY seems to have started in daily/4 hour charts with divergence visible in wave iii & v of wave i.
Right now we are in wave A of wave ii.
Within wave A the wave i of wave A seems to be finishing and there is a possibility of retracement in wave ii of A.
The idea is to sell at level below wave iv of wave i of A in wave iii of A
Short Entry point: 107.15
SL: 107.85
TP1: 106.75
TP2: 106.4
TP3: 106.2
USD JPY retest : be ready for the next short As you can see, we are in a strong downtrend background, RSI showing it clearly. I expect a retest of the support level and a lower low all the way down to the weekly support at 108.160. Once the price shoes a rejection of the previous support, we can place a sell till the next level.
Bounce of Resistance & Bearish Divergence --> Short on H4On the H4 graph of USDJPY, price was not able to break resistance (113.130) to the upside. Price compared to RSI also shows Bearish Divergence.
A possible trade setup could be:
- Short 3 small positions with SL above the resistance of 113.130 (111.3 for example)
- TP1: 112
- TP2: 111.7
- TP3: 111.1
- Once TP1 is hit, move SL of the remaining positions to entry or use a trailing stop.
You could also say that when TP2 is hit, you move SL from positon 3 to TP1, to secure your profits.
On the longer term (weekly and daily chart) a Triangle is forming, to break either the upside or downside might take quite a while.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to let me know!
Happy Trading!
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