BTC LongSo we are seeing my previous snapshot finishing (which TW didn't save for some reason).
BTC is heavily linked to s&p and tech stocks at the moment and the bloodbath affects it. However those have not finished, BTC already lost the weak hands and many hedgers.
We only have speculative hands left and buyers.
What is going to happen is that the ongoing crackdown on home ownership (new era gold) via taxes all over the world will lead a line of people looking for another highly sought for asset which is deflationary (limited supply), tangible, non-taxable and, most important, inalienable.
At the moment there is practically no "free lunch" left except for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies without central control.
You cannot invest into resources as they are behind too much red-tape and protectionism in any country.
Stock is heavy speculation with trust in business practice, bonds are dependant on governmental stability when a dude in another country can send it to a downward spiral due to midlife crisis.
So the only thing which is truly there is Bitcoin.
Despite being built on a non-very stable ground (internet) and dependant on governments permitting it, it still thrives and provides the necessary protection of ownership, fungibility.
Sure some will say that I'm being too optimistic or delusional, but I accurately predicted that during COVID:
small business will start closing
mid to high earning people will invest into property
low mid to low earning people will stop investment into property
companies will start buying more properties
all of the above will be with "free" money
this will lead to lowest home ownership and thus life satisfaction
leads to job dissatisfaction
low paid jobs become vacant
leading to supply chain crumbling further
Frankly I did not expect the war to join the tandem so soon, I thought we have a few years to run at the end of pandemic, despite due to my heritage I should've known better (as Mr. Putin got cornered heavily).
My new points are:
Russia exited the globalisation idea (basically shorting the whole investment and cutting ties).
people get burned opening new businesses with after covid free money now at the second wave of expansion available with high interest loans only.
inability to grow due to previous will require other capital where we either sell business, bankrupt or not expand.
wave of foreclosures due to previous decisions and growing workforce losses (great resignation is a good squeeze point).
tech crumbling because there is NO MORE GROWTH left and valuations get re-evaluated making major calls on all leverage across the board (cascades)
China will show even worse performance (because Evergrande was the first call) while technically being the last lifeline of the current world order.
War leads to huge cascade of shortages which affects already struck down lower class
Increase in riots worldwide, but most important in USA.
Possible collapse of nation unions worldwide
Faltering of real estate as investment will lead to search for new investment asset, bitcoin is right there.
This is not orchestrated, shit goes to town because there is no other choice at this point because basing your economy on constant growth is unsustainable. Regulations, taxes, borders and other burdens made for gullible nationalistic people lead to governments assuming totalitarian control (failure of TTIP, COVID and now Russia quitting) all over the world to show their relevance, they will try to double down and it will result in global collapse because world works as a global free market with no rules, taxes or burdens. And governments at this point are just thugs with guns, well you can be a thug with gun too!
Disclaimer:
I'm not a libertarian. Governments are an important thug which is supposed to keep other thugs from attacking you, BUT with nuclear deterrent there is not need for such huge armies (thus Russian attack on Ukraine) and wages, this war shows people globally that they are overpaying for protection which was either never there or now there to show off (no offence to Ukrainians). Sure some will say "well you can't nuke anyone", well first thing - yes you can, and second thing - there are drones now and most likely satellite deterrents in the work (many leading countries piss on the space treaty and more will join).
And yes it is more complex but it would take me pages of writing and I'm too tired to do that, so if you have questions shoot.
Remember there is 8 billion consumers in the world. All you have to do to become a millionaire is get 1 penny from them.
Shortage
Bottom in SOXL is in?Arguments pro a bullish scenario in $SOX / $SOXL:
We have reached the 78.6 % fib retracement in SOXL
According to the seasonal chart from the last ten years (see the SEASONAX screenshot at the top), in 9 of 10 cases the $SOX had made a bullish move from the 17th of May until the 8th of June
At some point, the semiconductor shortage must affect the prices ...
Contra arguments:
$DXY is rising / interest rates are going up
... anything else?
I can't see any significant arguments standing against the bullish case in $SOXL. If you have anything - please drop a comment below!
What to expect from Walmart. I wouldn't buy if I know this.There are a lot of people saying about buying now, giving signals like if there is no tomorrow, like if buying stocks is free... I don't see the point in buying anything for the long term right now because of many different reasons:
1. April Consumer Credit +$38.07BN, Exp. $35.0BN . The revolving credit increase was $17.8BN. The second-highest on record.
When investors devote too much of their cash to equities in aggregate, the market underperforms over the next ten years. This predicts that stocks will produce lower-than-average returns over the following ten years. While you don't have to shun equities entirely, you should adjust your expectations properly. Alternatively, wait for the stock allocation to drop down considerably before buying, which can happen if the market truly capitulates.
The average stock allocation of investors is presently close to 50%, which is the second-highest level in history. Equity prices will fall over the next decade unless investors maintain a larger stock allocation (which I believe is improbable) - by about 4% each year over the next decade.
2. The US consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan goes back to 1952 . It has never been lower than it is today.
3. Earnings Recession . With the first quarter earnings season nearly complete (97% of companies reported), S&P 500 earnings are down 14% versus Q4 2021 and up less than 1% year-over-year.
4. Critical shortage . The baby formula shortage continues to worsen, with 74% of stores across America out-of-stock (a year ago the rate was less than 5%). 10 US states now have out-of-stocks rates that are 90% or higher, including the most populous state (California).
5. U.S. Inflation
Dec '20: 1.4% (Trump's last full month in office)
Feb '21: 1.7%
Apr '21: 4.2%
June '21: 5.4%
Aug '21: 5.3%
Oct '21: 6.2%
Dec '21: 7.0%
Feb '22 : 7.9% (Putin invades Ukraine)
Apr '22: 8.3%
6. Walmart is making offers in order to sell some stock that they have , which may change the psychology of the clients making them think that the quality is becoming worst and also becoming hard to rise prices in the future.
All these points combined (inflation + shortage + fewer earnings + lower consumer sentiment + people investing money they cannot afford to lose) make me think that investing in Walmart right now can be an 8-10 years trap where you would lose even less by just leaving your money under your bed.
7. The technical analysis neither seems good as you can see. With all these conditions is something expectable that Walmart goes at least to the 61.8 Fibonacci level or even to 55$ per share...
This is not a recommendation for buying or selling, this is just an analysis to make people have a more global vision before falling into the traps of the people that invite you to buy at this level.
$DRQ - OIL EQUIPMENT PLAYDril-Quip, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, sells, and services engineered drilling and production equipment.
Bullish inverted head and shoulders with a breakout through ascending triangle.
There is a shortage of available drilling equipment in the United States.
$NOV - Oil Drilling Equipment SupplierIf you missed out on the oil and crude plays of recent weeks, this play might be for you.
Oil drillers are allegedly feeling the pain of a worker shortage, and drilling equipment shortage.
According to CNN , "They can't find people, and can't find equipment," said Robert McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group. "It's not like they're available at a premium price. They're just not available."
NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Wellbore Technologies, Completion & Production Solutions, and Rig Technologies.
So this equation is simple. NOV makes the drilling supplies that companies are so eager to find right now. The stock is also at historic lows.
This could be a very fun play heading forward.
SOX PHLX Semiconductor Shortage won`t be solved anytime soon !!Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo:
“The semiconductor situation is going to take a long time to fix”
“This is one I feel confident saying it's not going to be fixed in a month or two, or six, or 12 months.”
For now PHLX Semiconductor (^SOX) is oversold and we can see in the chart what was the price movement after the last oversold area.
I expect to be the same now, since the semiconductor shortage won`t be solved anytime soon.
My price target is 3730.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Ethereum ETH Ready for its climb to $10K yet?As one the Internet Currency's top quant, Willy Woo understands we have a problem. Wall Street has painted Main Street in the corner again with toxic derivatives manipulating World Fair Trade.
Fortunately, unlike poor gold or silver investors, TRUE Bitcoin and Ethereum holders, have the ability to check the blockchain to check and verify, on their own, the total world inventory of available coins. cryptoquant.com
Unfortunately in the US, Regulators protect the banks first and investor second. So they allow toxic derivatives based BS ETF that is unbacked to real Ethereum or Bitcoin. In Canada, some real ETH based funds appear to be backed 1-1 with the real thing. That's an honest Ethereum Fund/ETF. The US stuff is fraud supported by the US SEC. Not a World trusted organization, at least for those of us that understands who pays them.
So Short the shit from WallStreet unless you are stuck with your crashing 401k and trapped. My trust is behind:
1. Satoshi Math and proven crypto: 2008 Bitcoin , a "teen" ready to teach world financiers honesty and truth.
2. Ethereum - THE backbone of New World Finances. Let innovation led.
Hopefully, if everyone focussed on good and truth, we can, each one of us, head in the right direction. Towards truth and fairness to all fellow human beings.
2022 will reign in a whole new world economic system pegged on Bitcoin. The World Leaders need to ban all derivative based trading on BItcoin. Let the interconnected neutral World Exchanges run a true market based on a fix and verifiable asset class. Top quality crypto: Bitcoin and Ethereum
$MU vs $AMD part 2*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
My team has been covering $MU for the past few months. After consolidating in the $65-$75 range for the past couple of months we finally believe that $MU is ready to take its leap to go past $100.
$MU is a semiconductor company much like $AMD. With this being said investors should expect these two to uptrend similarly short-term along with other semiconductor companies this winter due to a chip production increase.
For long-term investors $AMD is the chip tyrant that will most likely dominate its competition, but that does not mean we can't still make money off $MU.
My team entered $MU at $72.92 per share at market-close on Friday. Our first take profit is set at $92 per share.
OUR ENTRY: $72.92
FIRST TAKE PROFIT: $92
2ND TAKE PROFIT: $103
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
Lean hogs breakout imminent Following a natural gas crunch hurting European countries , pig farmers have sounded the alarm that CO2 supplies are low hence could slow down pig slaughter. I expect this to push the price of pork around Europe and around the world higher.
Should a flag break out occur, there's a huge gap (20%+) waiting to be filled.
$AMD my team is up 35.8%*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
Recap: Steadily increasing semiconductor demand due to current shortage will leave $AMD with fat profits during the next few market quarters.
My team entered $AMD on 6/10/21 at $81.10 per share.
Today we're exiting $AMD at $110.15 per share. My team is up a staggering 35.8% on this trade.
Congrats to those who took this trade with us.
ORIGINAL ENTRY: $81.10
CLOSING TRADE AT: $110.15
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
Dr. Burry where are you??? The Big Short 2.0Check the following:
1. Competition is on fire
2. Semi-conductors shortage (production slowing down)
3. Chinese EVs- Spacs all down
4. Tesla announced double the expected cars sales and the stock made a 5% move and then is sitting on the same prices while the S&P is moving to all time high
5. Cathy rush to buy the dip and then upgrade her target (why??? her ass is on fire due to the shortage of chips, necessary to the production of EVs), production expectations will not be met in the medium-term (2-3yr)
6. VW did not go up because of EV future but more on EVs short term production problems ( more time for diesel-petrol engines )
7. I like al the above and number 7 :)
Do you believe the problem with semi-conductors is going to be resolved any time soon? i do not...
Awaiting for opening my short position either in a retest or previous highs or a breakdown of the major trend line and not only in tesla but all the EV sector. This is going to be a bet 0 or >1 and a 1-2year holding period.
Dr. Burry where are you???????
Allison at first buy levelAllison has been getting hit along with other manufacturers due to rising producer prices and steel shortages, but I continue to believe the company's prospects are impressive, with an overall quite positive outlook for earnings. And this sharp drop makes the valuation attractive too. I estimate Allison's forward P/E at less than 10, forward P/S at less than 1.5, PEG at about 2, and forward dividend yield at a respectable 2%. The stock has about 23% upside to its median multiple of the last 4 years.
Sentiment on Allison is mostly positive. The average analyst rating is 6.5/10, up about half a point this week. There's about 20% upside to the average price target of $44. The put/call ratio is quite positive at under 0.5.
In technical terms, Allison is hovering right above an important trend line support. If you set a stop loss at the trend line and target $40 per share, you've got about 8% reward - risk. I personally think Allison is good for a longer swing to at least $47, but it's also possible that this trend line support won't hold. I've identified four additional buy levels based on historical highs and lows.
With everything so overvalued, I haven't seen many buying opportunities lately. So it's kind of exciting to finally see the market correcting a bit and offering up a few good deals for once. Admittedly, I run a screener for stocks that have suffered a correction and might be "on sale," and most of the stuff turning up there is still overvalued garbage, so the larger market correction may still have a ways to go.
ARE YOU SHORT ON SILVER? GOLD? MUST READ!Concerned. Had always dismissed claims that silver would not be available when the time came but tonight, I've just noticed apmex.com (a top online retailer for precious metals) has now listed many of the top selling 1 OZ SILVER BARS as PRE-SALE ONLY. AKA SOLD-OUT. Then I checked the smaller sub ounce gold coins. Same story.
Wonder what happens next?
FOREXCOM:XAGUSD TVC:SILVER TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUEUR FX_IDC:XAUCNY OANDA:XAUJPY AMEX:JNUG AMEX:JDST AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDXJ AMEX:GDX AMEX:BTG NYSE:GOLD AMEX:NGD FX_IDC:XAGUSD AMEX:SLV