TBT- an ETF bearish on bondsTBT on the one hour chart demonstrates a clear round bottom reversal in late June
with a good trend up this past week. Price rose above the POC line of the volume profile
on July 3th showing bullish momentum dominating. Price has continued to ascend above
the Chris Moody sling shot indicator affirming that momentum. Given the current fed posture
hawkish for another rate increase fixed rate bonds will suffer yet again. Other indicators
show rising upward volatility and relative volume which further support the strength of the
trend. Time is ripe for a swing trade in TBT.
Shortbonds
TBT Treasuries Bear Leveraged ETFTBT is going to take another swing now that interest rates are going up.
Fundamentally, Treasuries and other bonds will go down on their real face value
because their yield is lower than the new going rate. Inverse EFTs like TBT
will go up when Treasuries go down.
On the w Chart chart, price is sitting above the POC line of the volume profile
where there is support and high volatility. Above the line shows buyers in control
ready to move price higher.
The Awesome Oscillator flipped green today after the fed news showing that selling momentum
has been replaced by buying momentum ( capitulation at the bottom).
The volume indicator shows a clear uptick in buying volume.
TBT offers options to further leverage this trade.
I will take a call options position of several contracts for the 5/12 expiration at a strike
about 5% below the current price. I expect 100% return on risk by next Monday and more
after that.
SHY shortterm bonds show divergence; FED may pivot end of Nov2 yr yield usually tops out 1.5 months before FED pivots. Right now shortterm bonds (inverse of yields)
are showing bullish divergence. Historically, this may predict that the FED may halt rate hikes or become less aggressive sometime this coming November. This will be very bullish for bonds & growth stocks.
Note that as of today, the 10-yr yield is still rising.
Not trading advice
EXCELLENT Risk to Reward on TBTWith TLT showing signs of a top and gold on its march to lower lows I see a clear opportunity in TBT. Five impulsive waves up, followed by a 3 wave correction to the 61.8 Fibonacci and is poised to continue upwards... Excellent risk to reward here if you have a stop just below the retrace level...
Feel free to hit me up with any questions!
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