RISK-ON RISK-OFF POSITIVE CORRELATION? SPX VS GOLD, JPY & UST P1The Paradoxical Risk-on/ Risk-off Asset positive correlation:
1. Risk off assets have outperformed to date, with Gold leading the gains at 28%, JPY following at 18% and US 10y treasuries Trading 16% up in 2016 - average at 20.5%.
2. Meanwhile, SPX trades 5% up since 4.1.2016 but more importantly, since 20th January lows SPX is up 15%.
3. this is significantly paradoxical, as fundamentally, Risk-on assets shouldnt trade well when safe havens do and the reverse can be said about Risk-off bull markets - Equities shouldn't trade higher.
- the reason this positive correlation of both risk and safe haven assets rallying at the same is problematic is that in the long-run it is not sustainable - one MUST adjust to the downside as markets in the short-run trade as a zero sum game, liquidity is inelastic and non-infinite i.e. they cannot both keep gaining capital as there is a limit when all available liquidity is allocated. Consequently, at this point investors then have to forgo investing in one asset, if they want to speculate on another, as they dont have any new cash to invest - this is why we normally see safe havens and risk assets trade negatively correlated and price action is "seesaw" like most of the time as investors take money out of risk, for example, so they can allocate it to risk-off, as perceptions and market environment changes.
Cause of the paradox:
1. An Unusual even split in investor risk sentiment e.g. in the immediate term, some believe the environment is stable enough to offer risk higher (CB easing/ support driven views), whilst others believe global risks are heightened enough to offer safe havens higher (Brexit, US election, China). Hence we see both SPX and Risk-off grow. Normally, the markets trade like herds e.g. behaviours skew to risk on or off, grouping with a strong bias to one side at the same time. This more "evenly distributed" sentiment we are experiencing rarely materialises as usually there is consensus on market risk e.g. all investors rationally agree that "now" is a highly uncertain time or the other way, given the same information is available.
2. Most likely imo , however, is that there is a short-term imbalance/ artificial risk inflation, where risk assets yet again are buoyed by central bank impetus. Following the brexit result a cascade of global CB dovishness/ support was injected into the markets providing the perfect artificial rise in equities - whilst the underlying market sentiment continues to follow the 2016 risk-off trend (as is shown by the 2016 outperformance of off (+21%) vs on (+5%), CBs have provided sufficient support to mask the risk-off bias - however it is unlikely to continue for long.
