Crude Oil - A case for a drop to $70 Crude to $70?
Am I completely out of my mind now?
Well, some think yes...and me sometimes too when I do my TA.
So what is this chart analysis trying to tell us here?
Let's start with the white pitchfork:
The white pitchfork on this chart projects a higher price in CL within it's boundaries. And there is also the dashed line, which we Forkers call the Centerline or short CL.
From the rule set of the pitchfork we have a statistical evidence, that price will reach the CL over 80% (from where and when is another discussion).
And we see, price reached the centerline by the pullback after the sharp drop in March.
From there, price either returns back to the extreme from where it came. In this case, the L-MLH, which price did.
So far Crude seems to follow the rules very good.
Let's move on...
The L-MLH:
After price reached the L-MLH, price broke out of the pitchforks "channel". Do we have a rule for this case too?
Yes, and it goes like this: "After price opens outside the pitchforks channel, breaking the MLH, price is likely to test/re-test the line which it broke. In this case the L-MLH again.
And that's exactly what we see now. Price is testing the L-MLH for the first time, even trying to trade back into the pitchforks channel.
Now, if price fails to reclaim the channel, we will see lower numbers and potentially even a re-test.
What about the red pitchfork?
The red one is a modified one and has a historical background. More on this another time.
It's nice how price also followed the rules, reaching the centerline of the red pitchfork, and is pulling back to it's U-MLH = Upper-Medianline-Parallel. Even better, price trades very near the confluence point of the red U-MLH and the white L-MLH.
So what, how is this projecting a price of $70 in Crude?
Well, if price can't reclaim the channel of the white pichfork AND can't leave the red pitchfork, then it has to trade in the projected direction of the red pitchforks, if we assume Crude is still following the rules more or less.
Of course, on the way down everything can happen.
Most likely, in the mid-term time-frame, we observe that price at least doubles the range of the pitchforks channel extremes, so:
Target after leaving the channel = L-MLH - (U-MLH - L-MLH), at least
But we all know that trading is not about perfection. Trading is about risk management and taking statistical chances when they show up. And we need to follow proven rules, which should give us a statistical edge.
That's what we can do with pitchforks. Trading a great statistical edge, combined with a framework in our trading to know when to enter, exit and how to manage risk and money.
Wearing my short stalker Cap and hiding in front of my screen, I wish you all healthy and happy Easter.
Shortcrude
Crude Oil Short SetupCrude oil's price movement over the past year has been nothing short of absurd. In terms of logical thinking, there is nothing sound about it. How does an asset price discover a negative future value, only to skyrocket in an unhindered fashion to the upper part of its price history in under a year?
See? There's no sound logic. I know, it's manipulated, and yes, I still think traders are spoofing - but in the opposite direction to keep equities abnormally high. This is my own speculation though, and it would be considered fake news to spread it as the absolute truth.
Nevertheless, technicals still have its limits and oil has apparently reached its threshold. The hourly candle that is pointed at in the top chart contains price action that constitutes termination of the upwards corrective combination. This is all within the context of the Elliott Wave Theory, which may or may not be enough evidence for some that there is a green enough light to take a short position.
Understandable, this trade does take cajones. I mean, look at the destruction it has caused to shorties in the past month!
While it is scary, I am a student of Elliott Waves and trust that the breakdown is sufficient enough to take a short under the stated entry line - once that trend line breaks definitively.
Shorting crude oil futures may not be feasible for some. The cool part about this particular trade is that it implies so much about what is going to happen to stocks, metals, USD, etc. if it plays out. I leave it to you to get creative on your own here.
-GreasyBacon
TVC:USOIL
CURRENCYCOM:OIL_CRUDE
TVC:USOIL
TVC:USOIL
TVC:UKOIL
Believe it or not? Crude at 35 or less!Last week saw crude prices weaken much further. This was a double whammy from the COVID-19 going viral globally as well as the imminent oil producer spat, particularly between Middle Eastern producers and Russian producers. That was just the cake... the cherry is in the form of a PRICE WAR, and one that has just been declared! According to Bloomberg, the Saudis are so upset with the Russians that they announced a BIG OUTPUT HIKE , of over 10 million barrels a day, in an aggressive response to the collapse of the OPEC-Russian alliance.
This move is going to wreck havoc in the markets and the mayhem should bring Crude prices to 35, or below!
In the attached chart, crude had a committed bearish candlestick to close the week. This was perhaps in anticipation of a not so favorable outcome, and so it happens. Technically, with Fibo retracement projections, we may expect crude prices to be about 35 over the next two weeks. The OBV and MACD are already bearish, and points too further downslide.
Now, when crude prices fall that low, some things begin to totally not make sense. Especially with an energy source this cheap, and a world eager to go on full steam at some point in the near future (once the COVID-19 issues are reined in. All it would then need is a trigger to spike oil prices to the moon.
Let’s watch this closely as it pans out... and needless to say, I suppose we all know what to do, right??
Plan, Position, Profit
Sines of upcoming waves.. new swell coming. I don't publish much anymore, but since a cycle is due, this is my play for this upcoming cycle.. 80% of my profits have been trading on sine & time cycle dates, using fibs levels and channels to predict and confirm directional change in trend.
Using the cycle dates, which show dwn till June 22nd, up til 30th :dwn till July 10th. Will cover shorts on any channel break up or post #EIA. I'm thinking this #EIA could give us season low around 42.57 fib. followed by seasonal high sub 50.
Anyway is all here..
Sine wave
History oil
Good luck