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Shortjpy

USD.JPY P-Modeling Pt. 2 The Inverted Cajun Cups of Love Welcome. Let's go down the rabbit hole for a minute. What if.. We could predict the future?.. Never hurts to try.. Please start at Pt 1. the 1 Day model of USD.JPY Technical: Use your eyes. Your human eyes. Cajun Cup #1 is repeated from 1995 to 2008. However, a new signal presents itself in the mirror image. Crypto. Projections match. Cups Match. Harmonics Match. Structure is a complete match. Catalyst: Fall of the USD. Time is my judgement. Do you see it? Will you believe it? Meh . Doesn't matter. Just wanna make you curious. If you are not yet, you will be. Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me, Glitch420
Short
by Glitch420
BREXIT AND GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: BUY USDJPY - HOW TO TRADENow that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the market hunted for risk off. Further, as with GBP it seems entities over the weekend have increased their JPY exposure to account for the increased percieved risk within the market causing UJ to open lower at 101.6 - However, over the weekend the BOJ had a meeting with other Japanese officials to discuss their plan (an easing plan likely) to combat 1. their inflation problem and now 2. the JPY's safe haven demand strength - both of which are cured by 8/10 aggressive easing policies by the BOJ - Thus I expect the BOJ to hold and emergency meeting this week announcing these changes to have immediate affect as UJ at 100 severely puts the brakes on their inflation growth target. - Further, as previously mentioned the BOE, SNB, FOMC and ECB (among others) have all said since the brexit vote that they are prepared to provide liquidity to markets and their rhetoric has been very dovish. - Thus the BOJ's new easing package which is likely to be aggressive e.g. 20bps rate cute and a large increase QE, will help depreciate the currency through increasing supply and reducing jpy demand. Further, the supportive/ dovish stance of the worlds central banks (particularly BOE and FOMC) will help ease risk aversion which in turn SHOULD reduce JPY demand therefore helping UJ trade better to the upside. So my trading plan for UJ is to buy at levels <102 - 101/2 is ideal (we are unlikely see 99 or 100 again as the risk-off impetuses have died). UJ should hold this range between 101.2 and 103 until CB meetings are in place - I will be holding UJ in the long term through to 110-115 at least. I have 8/10 long conviction for UJ Volatility update: Current UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade at 37.5%, which is surprisingly 3-4x higher than it was last week (the risk and volatility may not be over). 1wk UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade at 20%, significantly lower than current at 37.5% - I think this is a function of the central bank meetings expected this week which are inflating current volatility, with 1wk far vols lower as the events will have elapsed already. 1m UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade up on the week at 15.5% though the time curve is flattening meaning UJ vol is falling over time - lower vols = better conditions for UJ buying. Current UJ Option demand is skewed significantly to the downside, with Puts 40% vs calls 36% thus puts are in demand by about 10% more than calls - this supports nearterm risk-off views (RR -4). USDJPY as a measure of market risk. I still suggest using UJ as a measure of GBPUSD market risk - the volatility seemingly isnt over, and with near term uncertainty high, it is prudent to track UJ and use breaks of its 101.2-103.2 range as signals of net risk on or risk-off commitment .e.g. UJ higher risk on (jpy selling), UJ lower risk off (jp buying). The risk off move for GU imo is lower in this environment, and the risk-on move is higher. Thus, IMO UJ and GU are sync'd, and the two should be used as a tool.
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
LONG USD/JPYFundamentals:- Fundamentals:- There is still the divergence between the two central banks where the BoJ are willing to do anything to get inflation back up to 2% and the US FED are in a rate rising cycle. The JPY is being used as a safe haven currency and can strengthen at any risk off point in the market. We still expect a correction in the USD/JPY throughout the year however the direction next week should retest previous resistance levels. Technicals:- As you can see from the chart we had rejection from the 111.000 area and a move back towards the 11500. There has since been a pull back of 61.80% of that up move and now showing rejection of that Fibonacci level. Learn more about the way I trade with the free course bankonadam.com
Long
by FreeForexSignals4u