BTCUSD TOUCHED 85000 REVERSAL ?What’s up, traders? I’m here to drop free game, sharp analysis, and top-tier trade setups! 🎯 Let’s get straight to it:
🔍 Market Insight
🔸 BTC/USD has been consolidating since Friday night now it broke the consolidation and touched 85000 which was awaiting from long way we posted an idea with a buy entry but price missed our entry area and flyed
🔸 A liquidity sweep at 84789 on the 30M timeframe confirms smart money movements.
🔸 Strategy: After a liquidity grab, we shift to the 1-minute timeframe to confirm a Change of Character (ChoCh) for a sniper entry! 🎯
🔥 Trade Execution
✔️ Order Block marked at 84,900.
✔️ Sell limit at 84,900 – catching this right at the sweet spot!
✔️ Stop-loss 85,200 (-30 pips) to manage risk.
✔️ Take-profit 84,100 (+80 pips) – smooth 1:2.5 risk-reward!
📊 Technical Breakdown
🟢 Bias: Bullish – buyers in control!
⚠️ Lock in profits after 30 pips – don’t get greedy!
📌 Final Setup
💰 Sell Limit: 84,900
⛔ Stop-Loss: 85,200
🎯 Take-Profit: 84,100
💸 Let’s ride this move and secure the bag! 🚀💰 #CryptoSignals #BTCUSD #SmartMoney #ForexTrading
Shortposition
Bitcoin’s Final Surge? One Month Before the Post-Halving Drop!Bitcoin Halving Cycles: What History Tells Us About 2025
The Bitcoin halving is a highly anticipated event that occurs approximately every four years, reducing the block reward by 50% ⛏️. This supply shock has historically been a major catalyst for price movements. By analyzing previous cycles, we can attempt to forecast what might happen in the upcoming halving cycle of 2025.
Historical Performance of Bitcoin Halving Cycles
First Halving (2012)
365 Days Before Halving: 📈 +385%
365 Days After Halving: 🚀 +8069%
Peak-to-Trough Decline After Peak: 🔻 -76.98%
Second Halving (2016)
365 Days Before Halving: 📈 +142%
365 Days After Halving: 🚀 +284%
Peak-to-Trough Decline After Peak: 🔻 -82.88%
Third Halving (2020)
365 Days Before Halving: 📈 +17%
365 Days After Halving: 🚀 +559%
Peak-to-Trough Decline After Peak: 🔻 -75.64%
Current Cycle and 2025 Halving Expectations
- Last Halving Date: 📅 April 15, 2024
- 365 Days Before Halving: Bitcoin gained 📈 +130% from $28,827 (April 2023) to around $65,000.
- Projected 365 Days After Halving (April 2025): If history rhymes, we could see a price increase of around 📊 +72%, with a potential closure at the current Peak of $110,000.
- Post-Peak Decline Estimate: Previous post-halving peaks saw declines of 📉 75%–82%. With Bitcoin's all-time high around $110,000, a 🔻 75% drawdown would target a bottom of ~$30,000 before the next recovery cycle.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin's price tends to rally leading up to the halving, but the largest gains historically occur in the year following the halving. 📊
Post-bull run drawdowns are severe with past declines ranging from 🔻 -75% to -82%.
While the Pre and Post-Halving theory suggests that the decline starts around 365 days after the halving, the full bear market typically unfolds between ⏳ 486 to 510 days post-halving. This aligns with the ⛓️ 70,000-block mark post-halving, as Bitcoin halvings occur approximately every 210,000 blocks. This means that while the peak may occur within a year after the halving, the deep bearish phase historically becomes evident around 1.3 to 1.4 years after the halving, reinforcing the long-term cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s market trends 🔄.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin halving events are pivotal moments in the crypto market cycle 🔥. The data suggests that 2025 could see significant gains, but we should also be prepared for the inevitable correction that follows 📉.
What are your thoughts on the upcoming cycle? Share your insights in the comments!
Disclaimer
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The historical performance of Bitcoin halving cycles does not guarantee future results, and past trends may not necessarily repeat. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and investing in Bitcoin or any other asset carries risks, including the potential loss of capital.
Readers should conduct their own research, assess their risk tolerance, and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information provided is based on publicly available data and historical observations, which may be subject to change.
Sources:
Nakamoto, S. (2008). Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System.
Bitcoin block time and halving data: Blockchain.com
Historical Bitcoin price data: CoinMarketCap
Bitcoin halving cycles and trends: Messari
Market performance metrics: Glassnode
By reading this article, you acknowledge that you are solely responsible for your own financial decisions and that the author assumes no liability for any losses incurred from trading or investing. 🚀
Double Top Pattern – A bearish reversal signalThe Double Top is one of the most well-known bearish reversal patterns in technical analysis. It signals a potential trend change from bullish to bearish and can provide traders with strong shorting opportunities when confirmed.
How It Works:
1- Formation: The price reaches a resistance level twice, failing to break higher, creating two peaks at a similar level.
2- Neckline Break: After the second peak, the price falls to the previous support level (neckline). If this level is broken, it confirms the pattern.
3- Bearish Confirmation: A breakdown below the neckline often leads to a strong downward move, as buyers lose control and selling pressure increases.
Key Trading Strategy:
✅ Entry: Enter a short position once the neckline support is broken.
✅ Stop Loss: Set above the second peak to minimize risk.
✅ Profit Target: The expected price drop is usually the same distance as the height of the pattern (from peak to neckline).
In the chart above, we can see a clear Double Top formation in the NASDAQ 100. After failing twice at resistance, the price broke support, confirming a bearish trend reversal.
Short AUDUSD The Perfect Storm: Stagflation, GeopoliticsIn a world increasingly defined by geopolitical volatility and economic uncertainty, a perfect storm is brewing, casting a long shadow over the Australian dollar. The confluence of persistent stagflationary pressures, escalating trade tensions, and a resurgent U.S. dollar is creating a formidable headwind for the AUDUSD pair. This article delves into the intricate web of factors driving this bearish sentiment, offering a comprehensive analysis for macro traders and financial viewers seeking clarity amidst market turbulence.
The Stagflationary Grip: A Global Economic Quagmire
The global economic landscape is ensnared in a precarious dance between "sticky" inflation and a palpable slowdown. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) remains stubbornly elevated, while Producer Price Index (PPI) figures signal continued upward pressure on consumer prices. This persistent inflation, coupled with a weakening housing market, declining consumer confidence, and a sharp contraction in global trade activity (as evidenced by the plummeting Shanghai and China Containerized Freight Indices), paints a stark picture of a "Stagflationary Weakness."
www.census.gov
The Federal Reserve finds itself trapped between a rock and a hard place, grappling with the unenviable task of taming inflation while averting a looming recession. Policy missteps are increasingly probable, further amplifying market anxieties.
Geopolitical Fault Lines and Trade Wars: Fueling the Fire
Adding to the economic woes are escalating geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. The contentious US-Ukraine situation, heightened US-China strategic competition (including technology decoupling and potential military tensions in the South China Sea), and the ever-present threat of cyberattacks are creating an environment of heightened risk aversion.
President Trump's aggressive tariff policies, targeting Canada, Mexico, and China, have ignited fears of retaliatory measures and further disruptions to global trade flows. The market's reaction has been swift and decisive, with the S&P 500 experiencing consecutive weekly declines, reflecting growing investor unease.
The AUDUSD Under Siege: A Technical and Fundamental Breakdown
Against this backdrop, the AUDUSD pair is experiencing a decisive bearish breakdown. The U.S. dollar (DXY), fueled by its safe-haven appeal and the prevailing risk-off sentiment, is exhibiting robust strength, targeting 109.900. This dollar resurgence is exerting significant downward pressure on the risk-sensitive Australian dollar.
Gaining Traction Amidst Global Uncertainty
The AUDUSD has decisively breached the critical 0.64000 level, signaling a clear shift in market sentiment. While rising commodity prices, particularly in energy, have historically provided support for the AUD, the current environment is unique. Geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties are overshadowing the positive impact of rising commodity prices.
Technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), confirm the bearish momentum. The 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages are all trending downwards, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Key Support Zone and Outlook:
We have identified a key support zone between 0.61435 and 0.60838. This zone represents a potential area of consolidation or a temporary pause in the downtrend. However, given the strong bearish momentum and the prevailing fundamental factors, we anticipate a continued downward trajectory.
Impact of Strong Dollar and Risk Aversion"
Traders should closely monitor the DXY and global risk sentiment for further confirmation of the bearish trend. Any sustained break of the 0.64000 level would confirm the current outlook.
The AUDUSD pair is currently navigating a perfect storm of stagflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, and a resurgent U.S. dollar. This confluence of factors has created a compelling bearish outlook, with technical indicators and fundamental analysis aligning to support continued downward momentum.
In this environment, vigilance and a deep understanding of the global macroeconomic landscape are paramount. Traders must remain attuned to the evolving geopolitical and economic narratives, adapting their strategies to navigate the turbulent waters of the current market. FX:AUDUSD CAPITALCOM:DXY
EUR/USD Rejection at Key Resistance – Bearish Drop Incoming?EUR/USD 4H Chart Analysis 📉🔥
Key Observations:
Resistance Zone (Supply Area) 🚨
Price has tested a strong resistance level (marked by the shaded box) near 1.0500.
Multiple rejections in this area suggest selling pressure is strong.
Potential Reversal Setup 🔄
The price has wicked into resistance and started showing weakness.
A lower high structure could be forming, indicating a possible trend shift.
Bearish Outlook 🐻📉
A break below recent support would confirm a sell-off targeting the lower price range.
The chart suggests a potential move towards 1.0350 - 1.0300 levels.
The 200 EMA (1.0425) is acting as dynamic support, but a break below it will accelerate the drop.
Liquidity Grab & Stop Hunt 🎯
Price action could have trapped buyers before reversing.
A potential stop-loss hunt above the previous highs before a drop.
Trading Plan 💡
✅ Sell Bias: Look for confirmations like bearish engulfing candles or break below 1.0450.
❌ Invalidation: A clean breakout above 1.0510 cancels the bearish setup.
🎯 Target Levels: 1.0350, 1.0300.
🔥 Final Verdict: Bearish setup forming. Watch for breakdown confirmation! 🚀
Correction period of BTCAs of now i can see here in 1D chart market has broke its FIB level (0.236) 87,500$ , so there is a high probability that it may touch its next level which is (0.382) 73,750$ after its retest (91,000$ - 87,000$) region. After that market may show a NEW HIGH, but for that it should respect its next level (0.382) 73,750$. Which is also it's weekly Support level.
This is my opinion which may differ from yours.
Thank you.
The Bearish Pennant – A powerful continuation pattern!The Bearish Pennant is a classic continuation pattern that signals the market is likely to resume its downtrend after a short consolidation. It consists of two key components:
🔻 The Flagpole – A strong, impulsive move downward, indicating high selling pressure.
🔻 The Pennant – A brief consolidation with lower highs and higher lows, forming a small symmetrical triangle. This represents a temporary pause before the next leg down.
How to trade it?
1- Identify a sharp downward move (the flagpole).
2- Wait for price consolidation within the pennant.
3- A breakout below the pennant’s lower trendline confirms continuation.
4- Target = The length of the flagpole projected downward from the breakout point.
Why does this happen?
After a strong downward move, some traders take profits, causing consolidation. However, when sellers regain control, the trend resumes with force, leading to another leg down.
⚠️ Pro Tip: Look for increasing volume on the breakdown to confirm the move!
#1000RATSUSDT maintains bearish momentum📉 SHORT BYBIT:1000RATSUSDT.P from $0.01823
🛡 Stop Loss: $0.01855
⏱ 15M Timeframe
✅ Overview:
➡️ BYBIT:1000RATSUSDT.P is in a downtrend after rejecting the descending trendline, confirming buyer weakness.
➡️ Volume Profile suggests that the main liquidity (POC) is positioned at $0.01938, reinforcing selling pressure.
➡️ The Head and Shoulders pattern strengthens the bearish case, and a break below $0.01823 will trigger further decline.
➡️ The main downside targets are in the $0.01800 – $0.01764 range, where profit-taking may occur.
⚡ Plan:
➡️ Short entry upon breaking $0.01823, confirming the bearish scenario.
➡️ Stop-Loss at $0.01855—placed above the nearest resistance to minimize risk.
➡️ Main targets: $0.01800, $0.01780, and $0.01764, where downside movement may slow down.
🎯 TP Targets:
💎 TP 1: $0.01800
🔥 TP 2: $0.01780
⚡ TP 3: $0.01764
🚀 BYBIT:1000RATSUSDT.P maintains bearish momentum — expecting further downside!
📢 BYBIT:1000RATSUSDT.P remains weak, and a breakdown below $0.01823 could accelerate the decline.
📢 Watch for price reactions near $0.01764, where a slowdown or bounce may occur.
#BTCUSDT maintains bearish momentum — expecting further decline!📉 SHORT BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P from $94,547.0
🛡 Stop Loss: $95,027.0
⏱️ 1H Timeframe
✅ Overview:
➡️ BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P is forming a downtrend after testing the resistance zone.
➡️ Volume Profile suggests that the main liquidity (POC) is positioned above the current price ($96,258.3), indicating volume distribution in favor of sellers.
➡️ A break below $94,830.7 will confirm buyer weakness and open the potential for further decline.
➡️ The $94,286.0 and $94,090.0 levels may act as profit-taking zones, while $93,900.0 is a key support level.
⚡️ Plan:
➡️ Short entry upon breaking $94,547.0, confirming further downside.
➡️ Stop-Loss at $95,027.0—placed above the nearest liquidity level to minimize risk.
➡️ Main targets are in the $94,286.0 – $93,900.0 zone, where a bounce is possible.
🎯 TP Targets:
💎 TP 1: $94,286.0
🔥 TP 2: $94,090.0
⚡️ TP 3: $93,900.0
🚀 BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P maintains bearish momentum—expecting further decline!
📢 BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P continues its downward movement. If the price consolidates below $94,547.0, this will strengthen selling pressure and accelerate movement toward $93,900.0.
📢 However, buying activity may emerge at this level, so partial profit-taking is recommended.
egld setup"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟
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CVNA Short: Catalysts Favor a Move to the DownsideCVNA is a used car marketplace, which has enjoyed nearly a 7000% rally from lows. The company has turned around and has been a remarkable story, however given the recent earnings announcement selloff, a Gann based analysis favors a bearish trend change at least for now. Although the earnings report beat expectations, this could mark a local top for Carvana , as investors may be speculating that this is the best that Carvana can do revenue wise for now and that increasing growth rates may be hard to sustain.
As we can see here, the price has taken out the key $268.00 price support level aka, it's original 52 week high from Nov 25th. The price as of now is currently $256. The current Gann support levels are as follows: $250 psychological support level and the $256 Trendline Support level. Although we could see a bounce from the trend line and support level, I prefer an extended retracement to the $230 levels for 3 reasons:
1. Today is current day 47 of the rally from the 52 week lows of Jan 3rd . According to typical rally/reaction periods, the trend be shifting (the 45 day rally point is indicated by a red vertical line). So far this is validated by the 52 week daily close high of Feb 18th . Unless we get a move 3 points above this $291 high, we should not be worried about a possible 60-65 day rally.
If a 60-65 day rally is in fact the case, this would mark a top for CVNA at Mar 5th and Mar 10th in that case. (Marked by our red vertical lines)
2. We have a break below the old 52 week high support level of $268
3. We have a lack of strong support until the Gann 50% midpoint between the 52 week highs of Feb 19th and Jan 3rd . This midpoint noted by the horizontal blue line is around $234
STOP LOSS: $271
Set a stop loss around 3 points above the Support/Resistance level of $268 that we mentioned.
#LAYERUSDT remains weak — expecting further downside!This is a quick trade designed for a fast entry and exit with profit.
📉 SHORT #LAYERUSDT from $0.6780
🛡 Stop Loss: $0.6840
⏱ 15M Timeframe
✅ Overview:
➡️ #LAYERUSDT remains in a downtrend, trading near $0.6780, which could act as a short entry point.
➡️ POC (Point of Control) at $0.7316 confirms a high liquidity zone above the current price, indicating strong selling pressure.
➡️ The price failed to hold above the previous consolidation zone and continues downward.
➡️ If the price breaks below $0.6780, a further decline is expected, targeting lower support levels.
⚡ Plan:
➡️ Enter short upon breaking $0.6780, confirming the downward trend.
➡️ Risk management via Stop-Loss at $0.6840, protecting against a false breakout.
🎯 TP Targets:
💎 TP1: $0.6690
🚀 #LAYERUSDT remains weak—expecting further downside!
📢 #LAYERUSDT is under strong selling pressure. If the price breaks $0.6780, increased momentum may push it toward $0.6690. However, if it reclaims $0.6840, a short-term rebound could occur.
#SPELLUSDT continuation of the downtrend📉 SHORT BYBIT:SPELLUSDT.P from $0.0009866
🛡 Stop Loss: $0.0010430
⏱ 1H Timeframe
✅ Overview:
➡️ BYBIT:SPELLUSDT.P remains in a downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. The price failed to hold above $0.0010000, signaling weak buying momentum.
➡️ POC at $0.0010250 suggests that major volume accumulation is above the current price, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
➡️ If the price stays below $0.0009866, a continuation towards $0.0009485 and $0.0008901 is expected.
➡️ Volume remains moderate, indicating declining demand and a likely continuation of the downtrend.
⚡ Plan:
📉 Bearish Scenario:
➡️ Enter SHORT from $0.0009866 if price confirms rejection at resistance.
➡️ Risk management with Stop-Loss at $0.0010430, above key resistance.
🎯 TP Targets:
💎 TP1: $0.0009485 — first profit-taking level.
🔥 TP2: $0.0008901 — major support zone.
🚀 BYBIT:SPELLUSDT.P Expecting a continuation of the downtrend!
📢 BYBIT:SPELLUSDT.P remains under selling pressure. If the price holds below $0.0009866, further downside movement towards $0.0009485 and then $0.0008901 is expected.
📢 However, if the price reclaims $0.0010430, the bearish scenario could be invalidated, leading to a potential upward correction.
#AIXBTUSDT continuation of the downtrend📉 SHORT BYBIT:AIXBTUSDT.P from $0.2255
🛡 Stop Loss: $0.2366
⏱ 1H Timeframe
✅ Overview:
➡️ BYBIT:AIXBTUSDT.P continues its downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows.
➡️ The price has broken the $0.2290 liquidity zone and is holding below it, signaling weak buying pressure.
➡️ If sellers maintain control at $0.2255, a drop towards $0.2040 is likely.
➡️ POC at $0.2566 suggests the main volume accumulation is above the current price, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
➡️ High volume on recent candles indicates selling pressure, which could accelerate the downtrend.
⚡ Plan:
📉 Bearish Scenario:
➡️ Enter SHORT from $0.2255 if price confirms a breakdown.
➡️ Risk management with Stop-Loss at $0.2366, above key resistance.
🎯 TP Target:
💎 TP1: $0.2040 — strong support and profit-taking zone.
📢 BYBIT:AIXBTUSDT.P is in a bearish phase. If the price holds below $0.2255, further downside movement towards $0.2040 is expected.
📢 However, if the price reclaims $0.2366, the bearish scenario could be invalidated, leading to a potential bullish correction.
🚀 BYBIT:AIXBTUSDT.P Expecting a continuation of the downtrend!
#BERAUSDT Expecting a reversal and price drop📉 SHORT BYBIT:BERAUSDT.P from $5.635
🛡 Stop Loss: $6.380
⏱ 1H Timeframe
✅ Overview:
➡️ BYBIT:BERAUSDT.P is facing strong resistance around $5.635, signaling a potential price reversal.
➡️ The $5.635 - $6.000 area has acted as a liquidity zone before, and if buyers start taking profits, a correction downward is likely.
➡️ The primary target for the decline is $4.145, a level where previous buy activity was observed.
➡️ Volume is starting to decline, indicating a potential shift from buyers to sellers.
⚡ Plan:
📉 Bearish Scenario:
➡️ Enter SHORT from $5.635 if the price fails to hold above resistance.
➡️ Risk management with Stop-Loss at $6.380, above key resistance.
🎯 TP Target:
💎 TP1: $4.145 — strong support and profit-taking zone.
🚀 BYBIT:BERAUSDT.P Expecting a reversal and price drop!
📢 After a strong upward move, BYBIT:BERAUSDT.P is approaching a potential reversal zone. If the price fails to hold above $5.635, a decline towards $4.145 is likely.
📢 However, if buyers manage to push the price above $6.000, the short scenario may be invalidated, leading to further bullish momentum.
TIA SHORT/LONGTIA has dropped below $3.7, the lower boundary of its range, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.
If the price manages to reclaim $3.7, it would confirm a major fakeout, potentially pushing the price back up to $5-$6.
In the short term, we might see a small bounce toward the 21 EMA on the daily timeframe, accompanied by a bullish cross on the Stoch RSI.
After that, another pullback could happen, setting up a second bullish cross on the Stoch RSI—which, historically, has often led to stronger upward moves.
BTC next moves for 2025? Will 2021 repeat itself? Let's see :) History repeats itself, but will 2021 cycle repeat itself?
If we break 90K next level around 70, but there are many longs down the line, liquidation and long squeez is likely leading us to 60 if not 50 ranges, a wick is expected then a retest to 90K levels to get rejection before final breakout to the all time trend prices likely around 115-120K.
The herd will get excited by then, expecting a price to go above 120K, but I don't see this happening. And small dream secret, Nakamoto to be revealed later this year leading to significant crypto crash.
I know many may laugh, but let's see how this go! It makes sense from technical POV (hahaha, except my dream which likely to happen - since I don't dream too often) - keep an eye on RSI to get back in 40s before refill.
This idea is valid only and only if BTC breaks 90K and closes both daily and weekly below it with some a high volume!
Desclaimer:
The ideas and strategies presented here are for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You should consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this post is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.
AAVEUSDT Breakdown Imminent ? Bearish Setup AAVE/USDT perpetual contract on the 2-hour timeframe presents a descending channel formation in the. The price has been respecting the upper and lower trendlines, showing multiple rejections at both levels. Currently, the price is testing the lower boundary of the channel, and a breakdown could trigger further downside momentum.
The short setup suggests a bearish continuation if the price breaks below the lower trendline. The entry point is positioned around the 264.57 level, with a stop-loss placed above the recent swing high to manage risk. The take-profit zone is projected toward 221.84, aligning with the next significant support level.
Key factors to consider
The price is forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming the downtrend structure.
The red zone represents the stop-loss area, ensuring risk management in case of reversal.
The blue zone marks the potential profit-taking region, which aligns with a strong demand zone.
If a breakdown occurs with strong bearish volume, it could accelerate the move toward the target zone.
A potential retest of the broken support level could offer additional confirmation before further downside.
Traders should monitor volume and market sentiment before entering the trade, ensuring that bearish momentum supports the continuation of the trend.
FINNIFTY FUT SEEMS NEGATIVEHERE, I am sharing my idea on Fin Nifty Fut at closing of 15th January, 2025.
Important points are as below:
1) STRONG DEMAND ZONE is at 22,000 TO 21,750.
2) NEXT DEMAND ZONE is at 21,400 to 21,275.
3) STRONG SUPPLY ZONE is at 23,100 to 23,550.
4) Clear bounce back from 22,500 level.
5) Long term view is BEARISH
RSI WITH SMA: RSI is still below it’s moving average but has crossed oversold level from below to above on 14th Jan. trading session.
- We can expect further upside trend till our supply zone that is: 23,100 – 23,550.
- As mentioned earlier, long term view is BEARISH, if Fin Nifty fails to breach this supply zone and start’s falling, it will be good opportunity to sell.
- 1st target: 22,000 – 21,750
- 2nd target: 21,400 – 21,275
This is simply my attempt to predict Fin Nifty, I am not asking anyone to trade based on this idea.