Nvidia [NVDA] Top is in!! [S #1]----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
**First off, I have not posted in a while but the good news is I plan to become active and post consistently!
I will be providing high quality signals, and only signals and analysis that I personally find worth showing. Any smaller less likely to succeed trades I will be avoiding.
This will be a new series of content, I will label posts depending on category:
= Signal (Expect clear and direct post, I will not be showing or explaining much of the TA)
= Educative Post (I will be showing my Technical Analysis (TA) and teaching how it works)
Since this is a new series of posts, I will label this post as the first signal (S #1)
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***ALL ANALYSIS, SIGNALS, AND ANY CONTENT IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES
ONLY AND ARE NOT MEANT TO BE PROFITED OFF.***
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Current Price which is $140,25 at market close, and $140.30 during the pre market.
It is already starting to dip a bit during the pre market!
This Signal is based from bearish divergences, price action, miscellaneous bear flags, and my special indicator.
$135.24
$127.87
$122.71
Tight Stop loss: $142.52
Good Stop loss: $144.50
Loose Stop loss: $146.20
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***ALL ANALYSIS, SIGNALS, AND ANY CONTENT IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES
ONLY AND ARE NOT MEANT TO BE PROFITED OFF.***
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Shortput
Is APPL priced to perfection?
NASDAQ:AAPL
It's really starting to feel like AAPL is getting ahead of itself here. Sure, their recent earnings report looked decent, but I think some big takeaways are the decrease in China sales and decrease in iPhone sales. Sure, their services revenue will continue to increase and their buyback props up the stock, but there has been no true innovation in this company. False hopes of an Apple car, now an overpriced VR headset, and iOS that will incorporate other companies' LLMs?
Everyone is talking about the next upgrade cycle like it's going to change the outlook of the company. Yeah, Siri might improve, but there won't be any drastic impact on productivity with this first iteration.
With all that said, it looks as though the stock is starting to settle down. Recent reports of Warren Buffett halving his stake in AAPL will likely translate to further downward pressure on this stock.
AAPL has recently broken below the 20-day MA, retested, but failed to break back above. Now it is sitting between the 20 and 50-day MA. If it breaks below its 50-day MA, it will likely retest previous ATH support.
My plan is to buy puts in the short term and hope for a pulldown towards $198.
Opening (IRA): TLT January 17th 83 Short Put... for a 1.55 credit.
Comments: Probably the last addition to my TLT short put ladder for now. Selling the 83's, targeting a break even that is coincident with the 52-week low.
A basic bet that the Fed cuts rates ... at some point ... with the additional notion being that I won't have to hang out in it nearly as long as the DTE suggests when they do. Unfortunately, when I started laddering out, a March cut was on the table, but that has been pushed back to at least June and possibly September, so I probably got a little bigger in the position than I originally anticipated. That will resolve itself somewhat as shorter duration rungs fall off via take profit or roll-out (probably the former).
Opening (IRA): TLT December 20th 83 Short Put... for a 1.19 credit.
Comments: Laddering out at intervals ... . Targeting the strike that would result in a break even around the 52-week low on weakness here. A basic bet that the Fed cuts rates ... at some point.
I already have rungs on in July through Nov, so adding one here in Dec. This is complimentary to the covered calls I have on In January (See Post Below), so am getting paid for (a) short call premium; (b) short put premium; and (c) dividends for a kind of "triple whammy."
Opening (IRA): BITO August 16th 20 Short Put... for a 1.13 credit.
Comments: Adding a rung out in August at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the 25 delta strike.
Metrics:
BPE/Break Even: 18.87
Max Profit: 1.13 ($113)
ROC at Max: 5.99%
50% Max: .57 ($57)
ROC at 50% Max: 3.00%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll out at 21 DTE if it hasn't hit the TP by then.
Opening (IRA): BITO July 19th 22 Short Put... for an .81 credit.
Comments: Adding a rung at the 22 strike, which is better than either my covered call break even or the July 19th 24 short put I've got on.
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, but am fine with taking on additional shares and selling call against.
Rolling (IRA): TLT June 21st 86 Short Put to Nov 15th 83... for a .55 credit.
Comments: With the June 86 at greater than 50% max, rolled it down and out to the November 15th 83 for a .55 credit (where I currently don't have a "rung" on). I collected .93 for the June 86; with the .55 here, I've collected a total of 1.18.
Primarily looking to reduce a smidge of risk in this position, since my highest strike is at the 86.
Opening (IRA): TAN August 16th 37 Short Put... for a .93 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 51/44. Adding a short put in the vicinity of the 25 delta strike on weakness to my covered call, which has a 37.86 break even. (See Post Below).
Metrics:
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 36.03
Max Profit: .93 ($93)
ROC at Max: 2.44%
ROC at 50% Max: 1.22%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll for credit and duration if the TP doesn't hit.
Opening (IRA): EWZ Sept 20th 25 Short Put... for a .53 credit.
Comments: In for a penny ... . In for a pound. With the July 19th 28 short put looking ripe for assignment (it's still got time, so you never know), adding a rung here out in Sept (there is no August monthly yet).
The current position is a Dec 20th 29 Covered Call with a 28.44 break even, a July 19th 28 short put, and a Sept 20th 25 short put. I'll look to add a rung in August once it becomes available, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on ... .
Opening (IRA): TLT October 18th 84 Short Put... for a .98 credit.
Comments: Laddering out at intervals at strikes between 85 and 82, assuming they're paying.
This is naturally longer-dated than most will want to go, but is part of a TLT position made up of covered calls (stock + short call) and short puts, so that I'm getting paid for (a) short call premium; (b) dividends; and (c) short put premium over time.
Alternatively, it's a "hmm, I really need to get more BP deployed here because I don't really have shit on at the moment" sort of thing ... .
Opening (IRA): EWZ July 19th 28 Short Put... for a .65 credit.
Comments: Adding a short put element to my EWZ covered call ... . Here, it was either sell the 21 delta 27 for .36 or be more aggressive and sell the 30 delta for .65.
Do I really want more shares of EWZ? Not particularly. That being said, IV isn't horrid here at 26.5%, and there is the divvy to be had (8.20% annualized) so picking up additional shares wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing ... .
Opening (IRA): TLT September 20th 83 Short Put... for a 1.08 credit.
Comments: Targeting the 52-week low here with a rung out in September (I've already got rungs on in April, May, June, etc.), which I think is unlikely to be touched in light of talk about the Fed cutting rates ... at some point in time.
Naturally, if I'm wrong, I'm also fine with picking up shares at a cost basis below the covered call setup I currently have on ... .
Opening (IRA): BITO June 21st 24 Short Put... for a 1.82 credit.
Comments: Adding a short put on weakness here to my covered call, which I'm sticking in with to grab the monthly divvy.
I'm okay with being assigned additional shares, since the break even of the June 24 is below the cost basis of what I currently have on. Otherwise, I'm perfectly fine with doing my usual take profit at 50% of max.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 22.18
Max Profit: 1.82 ($182)
ROC as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 8.21%
ROC at 50% Max: 4.10%
Opening (IRA): TLT July 19th 83/August 16th 83 Short PutsComments: Getting in at strikes better than what I currently have on in July and August.
July 19th 83: Filled for an .85 credit
August 16th 83: Filled for a 1.11 credit
I'm fine with potentially getting assigned with shares at 83, since they're way below the cost basis of the covered calls I currently have on. I knew this might end up being a very, very long duration trade that would potentially take time to work out, but ... yeesh, the weakness.
Will look to roll out the most at risk strikes I've got in July (at the 86) and August (at the 85) at some point ... .
Opening (IRA): TQQQ June 21st 52 Short Put... for a 2.49 credit.
Comments: Adding to my TQQQ position on weakness ... . This is a bit longer-dated than I like to go with shorter duration premium selling, which I like to keep in that 45 DTE wheelhouse, but May has now only 35 days in it, and I like to stick to monthlies in all but the most options liquid underlyings.
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max. I'm fine with being assigned, then proceeding to sell call against if that occurs.
Metrics:
BPE/Break Even: 49.51
Max Profit: 2.49 ($249)
ROC at Max Profit: 5.03%
ROC at 50% Max: 2.51%
Delta/Theta: 24.36/3.37