AMD is no NVDA don't fall into the hype!
AMD vs. NVDA:
When looking at these two stocks it's clear that NVDA is the clear winner and will maintain its pricing power over alternatives.
NVDA's Gross margin (75.97%) is +35.57% that of AMD (40.4%).
Although AMD has a low price to sales ratio this is likely due to them having a "Walmart sales model". High volume, low margin.
This is illustrated further when looking at both companies price to cash flow ratio. Despite recent surges in NVDA stock price this has been trending lower for NVDA and higher for AMD.
Most recent price to cash flow ratios: NVDA (54.1) and AMD (188.14). This helps visualize how much investors are paying for each company to generate cash flow.
I don't know about you but I am not willing to get in at these levels and although it is very risky I'm tempted to buy some puts against AMD. Yes they have excellent management and a large economic moat, it does not compare to that of NVDA and it should not be benefiting as greatly as it has recently by NVDA's recent performance.
AMD is now approaching the top of a channel that has been strong resistance for higher moves.
It seems like everyone in the market is un NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:AMD der the impression nothing ever falls. Although it would be bold and extremely risky to buy puts on any AI stock I believe it to be the correct one.
Curious to hear others opinions.
AMD:
www.tradingview.com
NVDA:
www.tradingview.com
Shortput
Opening (IRA): TLT April 19th 90 Short Put... for a 1.10 credit.
Comments: Although I have a long-dated covered call on in TLT, starting to ladder out some short put at intervals that would result in an improvement of my cost basis in the covered call were I to be assigned shares.
Targeting the strike that's paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Opening (IRA): SPY June 21st 432 Short Put... for a 4.40 credit.
Comments: Laddering out at intervals, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.
Will start looking at adding in shorter duration if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on.
Opening (IRA): QQQ June 21st 355 Short Put... for a 3.60 credit.
Comments: Laddering out at intervals, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. I've already got March, April, and May rungs on, so going out to June here.
Opening (IRA): SPY May 17th 448 Short Put... for a 4.75 credit.
Comments: Targeting the May option paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. This ends up being a little more aggressive from a delta standpoint than I usually go (~20 delta), but that's okay as I start to build up a position over time ... .
Naturally, weakness/higher IV would be better, but you can't have everything.
Rolling (IRA): TLT Nov 17th 92 to March 15th 92 Short Put... for a .97 credit.
Comments: Alas, this could not be meaningfully strike improved, so just rolling it out as is. The deeper the in-the-money it is, the farther out in time you have to go to get paid something decent ... . Collected .79 originally (See Post Below) plus the .97 here for a total of 1.76.
Rolling (IRA): TLT Nov 17th 94 to April 19th 94 Short Put... for an .85 credit.
Comments: Another that can't be meaningfully strike improved without paying a debit ... . Collected .75 originally (See Post Below). With the .85 here, 1.60 total.
And that ... ends the November contract housekeeping portion of our show. Unfortunately, I'll probably have to do some more of this in the December contract (ugh).
TLT Core Position (IRA)In the absence of some kind of face-ripping rally, I'm going to be assigned shares in TLT here shortly, starting with what began as an October 20th 93 short put and an October 20th 89 short put. Here, I'm using short puts as an acquisitional tool, attempting to acquire shares in multi-year weakness, after which I'll proceed to cover the shares with short calls. The short call premium, along with TLT's monthly dividend, will result in positive cash flow.
There are a couple of different approaches I could utilize here to manage the shares I'm assigned, one of which is to sell a call against each individual lot I'm assigned, laddering out short calls in time as I'm assigned shares. Since I've got quite a few contracts subject to assignment, this would result in sort of a covered call spaghetti-works.
Another simpler approach would be to see what the average cost basis of all the lots I'm assigned is, and then proceed to sell calls at or above that average cost basis in a single expiry. For example, the average cost basis of the two rungs shown here is (89 + 93)/2 or 91/share. With that cost basis in mind, I would proceed to sell two calls at or above the 91 strike at a reasonably delta'd strike in an expiry that's paying. Given the distance price has pulled away from my likely average cost basis, the calls are likely to be somewhat long dated.
Given the fact that my highest short put strike is at 94, I'm more likely to sell calls at 94 initially, wait to be assigned everything that I'm going to get assigned, look at the average cost basis at that point and then adjust the short calls accordingly. Because of its simplicity, this is the approach I'll be going with, looking to stay in the shares and manage the entire position on a fairly long-term basis.
As usual, we'll see how it goes ... .
Opening (IRA): SPY April 19th 415 Short Put... for a 4.47 credit.
Comments: Had to go out to April here to get paid what I'm looking for, which is no surprise with VIX at 52-week lows.
Targeting the shortest duration <16 delta put paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. Will naturally look to add in shorter duration should we get a sell-off and/or up-tick in IV that makes that worthwhile.
Opening (IRA): QQQ March 15th 348 Short Put... for a 3.51 credit.
Comments: Targeting the shortest duration <16 delta put paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. Will naturally look to add in shorter duration should we get a sell-off and/or up-tick in IV that makes that worthwhile.
Opening (IRA): IWM April 19th 165 Short Put... for a 2.10 credit.
Comments: Starting to erect rungs in the second quarter (April, May, June). QQQ doesn't have an April yet, and I already have a SPY rung on out in that contract, so just doing the small caps here. Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
I'll naturally look to add in shorter duration should we get a bump in IV, but may have to dabble outside the broad market (IWM, QQQ, SPY) box to get paid something decent in shorter duration.
Opening (IRA): IWM March 15th 161 Short Put... for a 1.66 credit.
Comments: Targeting the shortest duration <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. I'll naturally look to add rungs in shorter duration if we get a sell-off/pop in IV.
Opening (IRA): TLT December 29th 90 Short Put... for a 1.20 credit.
Comments: Adding a rung out in the Dec 29th expiry at a strike better than what I currently have on.
Since I'm in an acquisitional frame of mind with TLT, I'm pretty much going to run with these until they're approaching worthless (i.e., <.05). If I get assigned, I'll proceed to sell call against.
Rolling (IRA): TLT November 3rd 88 Short Put to January 19th 87... for a .42 credit.
Comments: Received an .88 credit for the 88 (See Post Below); rolling it down and out for a .42 credit. Total credits collected of 1.30.
If I'm going to get assigned, lower is naturally better, even if it's only a strike ... .