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Shortput

Rolling (IRA): QQQ June 18th 297 Short Put to June 30th 288... for an .11 credit. Comments: Here, doing a little "window dressing" rolling ... . With the 297 at greater than 50% max (See Post Below), rolling it down and out in duration a little bit for a realized gain and a small credit. Here, I just want to take profit up to this point and reduce risk (since the 288 is farther away from current price than the 297, but also milk the remaining risk premium out of the play. Total credits collected of 2.99 + .11 = 3.10 versus the June 30th 288 current short put value of 1.46, so I've realized a profit of 3.10 - 1.46 or 1.64 ($164) so far.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by NaughtyPines
Trade Idea: RIOT June 18th 17 or August 20th 15 Short PutRIOT announces earnings on Monday, so I'm not keen on stepping in front of what is likely to be a moving bus. However, I may consider something post-earnings and wanted to price things out here ahead of time to give me some idea as to where I might want to set up up my tent and what that might be paying. Unfortunately, the weeklies aren't that great for liquidity, and there's no July monthly at the moment, so would either have to trade June (33 days) or August (96 days). So, like, which one? June implied is at a whopping 185.3% (no doubt due to earnings); August at 120.7%. The June 18th 14 delta 17 strike is paying 1.23 at the mid, 7.8% ROC at max, 86.3% annualized; the August 20th 13 delta 15, 1.88, 14.3% at max, 54.4% annualized. I'm using the same approximate delta for both expiries to kind of compare "apples to apples." Naturally, there are trade-off's. The shorter duration, similarly delta'd June 17 pays more on an annualized basis, but it's closer to at the money. Conversely, the August 20th 15 pays less on an annualized basis, but is farther away from current price, so gives you more room to be wrong, as well as more premium to potentially take off at 50% max -- 50% max of 1.23 is .61; 50% max of 1.88 is .94. Additionally, the August setup has a smaller buying power effect versus the June: 13.12 versus June's 15.77 (cash secured). On margin, the difference will be smaller with a buying power effect for the 17 being around 3.40; the 15, 3.00 even. For me, it boils down to answering the question: "Am I comfortable with acquiring it at 17 or more comfortable at acquiring it at 15?" To me, the answer is "lower," and so am mostly likely to go with the August setup. Naturally, this will all be moot if it takes off like a rocket post-earnings, in which case I won't put on a trade.
NASDAQ:RIOTLong
by NaughtyPines
The Week Ahead: ARKG, ARKK, MJ, ARKQ, GDXJ, IWM/RUT PremiumHere's what's paying for premium sellers as of Friday's close ... . For those of you not familiar with my general process, my general order of preference is to trade (a) broad market; (b) sector exchange-traded funds; and (c) single name, in that order. If broad market isn't paying, I look at exchange-traded funds, and -- if those aren't paying -- I look at single name. This week, I think that there are opportunities to sell premium in at least sector exchange-traded funds, so I don't feel the need to delve into what single name is paying and haven't bothered to screen single name here. In any event, I first screen out exchange-traded funds* that do not have a 30-day implied volatility of at least 35%. Then, I price out what the 45 day at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of strike price with the notion being that if the short straddle is paying, then most other premium selling setups I undertake will also be paying, whether it be short puts, short strangles, iron condors/flies, or short verticals/credit spreads. Here, my cut-off is generally a risk premium (credit received)/short straddle ratio of greater than 10%. In light of this, I probably wouldn't bother playing FXI here, even though it has a 30-day implied of 36% and one that is relatively high in the range (at the 63rd percentile) because it just isn't paying enough -- 6.18% as a function of strike price. In comparison, it looks like "The Ark Complex" is paying, even though some expiry availability/liquidity makes the exchange-traded funds in this grouping less than ideal to trade. Exchange-Traded Funds Screened for Options Liquidity and 30-Day Implied >35%: ARKG (Genomics) (60 rank/61 30-Day): June 18th (33 Days)** 77 short straddle, 9.20 at the mid price, 11.95% as a function of strike price, 132.2% annualized. ARKK (Innovation) (52/54): July 2nd (47 Days) 104.5 short straddle, 14.45 at the mid, 13.83% as a function of strike price, 107.4% annualized. MJ (Cannabis) (<1/42): July 2nd (47 Days) 19.5 short straddle, 2.60 at the mid, 13.33% as a function of strike price, 103.5% annualized. ARKQ (Robotics) (51/39): June 18th (33 Days)*** 79.34 short straddle, 6.75 at the mid, 8.51% as a function of strike price, 94.1% annualized. GDXJ (Junior Gold Miners) (7/37): July 2nd (47 Days) 51 short straddle, 5.58 at the mid, 10.94% as a function of strike price, 85.0% annualized. XME (Metals and Mining) (34/37): July 2nd (47 Days) 45 short straddle, 5.95 at the mid, 13.22% as a function of strike price, 102.7% annualized. EWZ (Brazil) (14/37): July 2nd (47 Days) 37 short straddle, 3.50 at the mid, 9.56% as a function of strike price, 74.2% annualized. FXI (China) (63/36): July 2nd (47 Days) 44 short straddle, 2.72 at the mid, 6.18% as a function of strike price, 48.0% annualized. GDX (Gold Miners) (30/35): July 2nd (47 Days) 38 short straddle, 3.53 at the mid, 9.29% as a function of strike price, 72.1% annualized. Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds with 30-Day >20%: IWM (Russell 2000) (16/27): July 2nd (47 Days) 221 short straddle, 15.68 at the mid, 7.10% as a function of strike price, 55.1% annualized. QQQ (Nasdaq) (14/24): July 2nd (47 Days) 326 short straddle, 21.18 at the mid, 6.50% as a function of strike price, 50.5% annualized. * -- For single name, the cut-off is 50% implied or greater; for broad market, 20% or greater. Broad market just tends to be less volatile than sector, which -- in turn -- tends to be less volatile than single name. ** -- There is currently no weekly contract near 45 days' duration, so using the monthly here. *** -- As with ARKG, there is currently no weekly contract near 45 days, so using the June monthly here.
CBOE:ARKK
by NaughtyPines
Rolling (IRA): IWM May 28th 200 Short Put to June 30th 200... for a 1.64 credit. Notes: With only .48 or so of extrinsic left in it, rolling out the May 28th 200 (See Post Below) to the June 30th 200 (51 days, 16 delta) for a 1.65 credit and a realized gain on this little bit of weakness here. Total credits collected of 3.79 versus a current contract value for the June 30th 200 of 2.16, so I've realized profits of 3.79 minus 2.16 or 1.63 ($163) in this puppy so far. It also happens to be the last May contract I had on, so it doubles as a little bit of a "housekeeping" trade.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
Rolling (IRA): IWM May 14th 205 Short Put to June 18th 203... for a 1.89 credit. Notes: With only .30 left in the May 14th* 205 (14 days), rolling this out to June 18th (49 days) 203 (16 delta) for a realized gain and a credit, rather than adding more units (i.e., I'd leave this one open to allow the remaining .30 in extrinsic to piss out and just sell a new contract in June). Total credits collected of 6.32 versus a current value in the June 203 contract of 2.18, so I've realized gains of 6.32 - 2.18 or 4.19 ($419) so far. I would note that "rolling" is the functional equivalent of separately closing and then opening a new contract. It's perfectly fine to do things that way, but doing the "two-step" in a single transaction is just a little cleaner from a tracking standpoint because you will have a single entry/trade for a credit, rather than two trades (one for a debit, one for a credit). * -- The previous post indicated it was a roll to the May 17th expiry, but should have read the May 14th, as there is no May 17th contract.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines